Material use and embodied carbon from new construction buildings in North America: Analysis and projection to 2050

Ashtiani, M., Benke, B., Shen, Y., Jungclaus, M., Lewis, M., Rempher, A., Esau, R., & Simonen, K. (2026). Material use and embodied carbon from new construction buildings in North America: Analysis and projection to 2050. Journal of Building Engineering, 130, Article 116959. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jobe.2026.116959

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Abstract

Buildings are a major consumer of raw materials and emitter of greenhouse gases (GHGs), yet data on their resource use and embodied environmental impacts remain limited. This study investigates the material use intensity (MUI) and embodied carbon intensity (ECI) of new construction commercial and multifamily residential buildings in North America using data from 239 building life cycle assessment (LCA) models. This study develops a benchmark data analysis framework to provide MUI and ECI values, defined in units of mass and embodied carbon per building floor area, across different building typologies, structural systems, and material categorizations. Results show a wide variability in building-level MUI (269-2860 kg/m2) and ECI (115-1030 kgCO2e/m2) within A1-A3 LCA modules. The study also establishes material-level MUIs and ECIs, highlighting that concrete, steel, gypsum, masonry, and wood and composites account for more than 96% of the mean MUI, while concrete, steel, insulation, aluminum, and applied fireproofing account for more than 80% of the mean ECI across all buildings. Using a bottom-up approach, future material consumption and embodied carbon emissions for new construction buildings in the US from 2020 to 2050 were projected to establish a business-as-usual (status quo) baseline under constant-intensity assumptions. Concrete and steel remain the largest contributors to embodied carbon of buildings in 2050, accounting for 38% and 24% of total emissions, respectively. Findings indicate that effective building decarbonization requires concurrent accounting of material use and embodied carbon at both building and material levels. The study calls for standardized material-level analysis methods to improve comparability across studies and support data-driven decarbonization policies and practices. Methods and results are shared as open-access code and an interactive visualization dashboard to support reuse and transparency.

Keywords

Embodied carbon; Material use; Life cycle assessment; Building; Projection; Benchmark