Acolin, Arthur;hoek-smit, Marja;green, Richard K. (2022). Measuring the Housing Sector’s Contribution to GDP in Emerging Market Countries. International Journal Of Housing Markets And Analysis, 15(5), 977-994.
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Abstract
Purpose > This paper aims to document the economic importance of the housing sector, as measured by its contribution to gross domestic product (GDP), which is not fully recognized. In response to the joint economic and health crises caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, there is an opportunity for emerging market countries to develop and implement inclusive housing strategies that stimulate the economy and improve community health outcomes. However, so far housing does not feature prominently in the recovery plans of many emerging market countries. Design/methodology/approach > This paper uses national account data and informal housing estimates for 11 emerging market economies to estimate the contribution of housing investments and housing services to the GDP of these countries. Findings > This paper finds that the combined contribution of housing investments and housing services represents between 6.9% and 18.5% of GDP, averaging 13.1% in the countries with information about both. This puts the housing sector roughly on par with other key sectors such as manufacturing. In addition, if the informal housing sector is undercounted in the official national account figures used in this analysis by 50% or 100%, for example, then the true averages of housing investments and housing services’ contribution to GDP would increase to 14.3% or 16.1% of GDP, respectively. Research limitations/implications > Further efforts to improve data collection about housing investments and consumption, particularly imputed rent for owner occupiers and informal activity require national government to conduct regular household and housing surveys. Researcher can help make these surveys more robust and leverage new data sources such as scraped housing price and rent data to complement traditional surveys. Better data are needed in order to capture housing contribution to the economy. Practical implications > The size of the housing sector and its impact in terms of employment and community resilience indicate the potential of inclusive housing investments to both serve short-term economic stimulus and increase long-term community resilience. Originality/value > The role of housing in the economy is often limited to housing investment, despite the importance of housing services and well-documented methodologies to include them. This analysis highlights the importance of housing to the economy of emerging market countries (in addition to all the non-GDP related impact of housing on welfare) and indicate data limitation that need to be addressed to further strengthen the case for focusing on housing as part of economic recovery plans.
Keywords
Pandemics; Economic Importance; Investments; Housing; Sanitation; Recovery; International Organizations; Covid-19; Economic Growth; Data Collection; Economic Indicators; Economics; Housing Conditions; Economic Policy; Economic Conditions; Market Economies; Resilience; Low Income Groups; Economic Activity; Consumption; Emerging Markets; Earthquakes; Surveys; Gross Domestic Product--gdp; Coronaviruses; Affordable Housing; Economic Development; Informal Economy; Households; Recovery Plans; Disease Transmission; Africa; South Africa; India
Ramiller, Alex; Acolin, Arthur; Walter, Rebecca J.; Wang, Ruoniu. (2022). Moving to Shared Equity: Locational Outcomes for Households in Shared Equity Homeownership Programs. Housing Studies, 44586.
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Abstract
Abstract The impact of U.S. housing policy on household locational outcomes has primarily been studied in the context of rental housing assistance programs, but the impact of alternative homeownership models is less fully explored. In this study, we assess residential trajectories for households that have participated in shared-equity homeownership (SEH) programs such as Community Land Trusts and Limited Equity Housing Cooperatives. We examine changes in neighborhood characteristics that occur when households enter and exit SEH units, and compare those outcomes with similar households that entered traditional homeownership or continued to rent. We find that while entering SEH is associated with decreases in neighborhood opportunity measures, exiting SEH is associated with improvements in key measures including lower concentrations of poverty. We conclude that while entering SEH may entail moving to lower-opportunity neighborhoods, participation in SEH programs increases the long-term economic and socio-spatial mobility of participating households by enabling them to access a broader array of neighborhood contexts in their subsequent move. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]; Copyright of Housing Studies is the property of Routledge and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
Keywords
Community Land Trusts; Geographies Of Opportunity; Locational Outcomes; Residential Mobility; Shared-equity Homeownership
Tillyer, Marie Skubak; Acolin, Arthur; Walter, Rebecca J. (2022). Place-based Improvements for Public Safety: Private Investment, Public Code Enforcement, and Changes in Crime at Microplaces across Six U.S. Cities. Justice Quarterly, 44592.
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Abstract
Abstract Research demonstrates that crime concentrates at relatively few microplaces, and changes at a small proportion of locations can have a considerable influence on a city’s overall crime level. Yet there is little research examining what accounts for change in crime at microplaces. This study examines the relationship between two mechanisms for place-based improvements – private investment in the form of building permits and public regulation in the form of municipal code enforcement – and yearly changes in crime at street segments. We use longitudinal data from six cities to estimate Spatial Durbin Models with block group and census tract by year fixed effects. Building permits and code enforcement are significantly associated with reductions in crime on street segments across all cities, with spatial diffusion of benefits to nearby segments. These findings suggest public safety planning should include efforts that incentivize and compel physical improvements to high crime microplaces. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]; Copyright of JQ: Justice Quarterly is the property of Routledge and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
Keywords
Code Enforcement; Crime And Place; Hot Spots; Investment; Place-based Improvements
Walter, Rebecca J.; Tillyer, Marie Skubak; Acolin, Arthur. (2022). Spatiotemporal Crime Patterns across Six US Cities: Analyzing Stability and Change in Clusters and Outliers. Journal Of Quantitative Criminology.
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Abstract
ObjectivesExamine the degree of crime concentration at micro-places across six large cities, the spatial clustering of high and low crime micro-places within cities, the presence of outliers within those clusters, and extent to which there is stability and change in micro-place classification over time. MethodsUsing crime incident data gathered from six U.S. municipal police departments (Chicago, Los Angeles, New York City, Philadelphia, San Antonio, and Seattle) and aggregated to the street segment, Local Moran’s I is calculated to identify statistically significant high and low crime clusters across each city and outliers within those clusters that differ significantly from their local spatial neighbors.ResultsWithin cities, the proportion of segments that are like their neighbors and fall within a statistically significant high or low crime cluster are relatively stable over time. For all cities, the largest proportion of street segments fell into the same classification over time (47.5% to 69.3%); changing segments were less common (4.7% to 20.5%). Changing clusters (i.e., segments that fell into both low and high clusters during the study) were rare. Outliers in each city reveal statistically significant street-to-street variability. ConclusionsThe findings revealed similarities across cities, including considerable stability over time in segment classification. There were also cross-city differences that warrant further investigation, such as varying levels of spatial clustering. Understanding stable and changing clusters and outliers offers an opportunity for future research to explore the mechanisms that shape a city's spatiotemporal crime patterns to inform strategic resource allocation at smaller spatial scales. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved)
Keywords
Micro-places; Spatiotemporal Crime Patterns; Spatial Clusters; Spatial Outliers; No Terms Assigned
Acolin, Arthur; Wachter, Susan. (2017). Opportunity and Housing Access. Cityscape, 19(1), 135 – 150.
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Abstract
This article examines the relationship between employment opportunity and housing affordability. Access to locations with high-productivity jobs is increasingly limited by regional housing affordability barriers. Recent articles demonstrate a new regional divergence in access to high-productivity regions accompanied by declines in worker mobility associated with affordability barriers. We update these findings and discuss their long-term implications for economic opportunity and intergenerational welfare. We show that areas, from which lower-income households are increasingly priced out, are also more likely to have higher levels of intergenerational mobility. Access to opportunity also continues to be challenged within metropolitan areas as the gentrification of downtown neighborhoods is accompanied by an increase in concentrated poverty in outlying city neighborhoods and inner ring suburbs. These trends on regional and local scales derive from the increased importance of place in the knowledge-based economy and interact to reinforce growing spatial inequality. We conclude with a discussion of the importance of identifying place-based solutions to counter growing spatial inequality of opportunity.]
Acolin, Arthur; Bricker, Jesse; Calem, Paul; Wachter, Susan. (2016). Borrowing Constraints and Homeownership. The American Economic Review, 106(5), 625 – 629.
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Keywords
Borrowing Constraints, Homeownership, Credit Supply
Acolin, Arthur; Goodman, Laurie S.; Wachter, Susan M. (2016). A Renter or Homeowner Nation? Cityscape, 18(1), 145 – 158.
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Acolin, Arthur; Calem, Paul; Jagtiani, Julapa; Wachter, Susan. (2018). First-Time Homebuyers: Toward a New Measure. Cityscape, 20(1), 193 – 204.
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Abstract
Existing data sources show divergent estimates of the number of homes purchased by first-time homebuyers as a share of all home purchases. In this article, we use a new dataset to construct a time series of the share of first-time homebuyers. This series, based on the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Equifax Consumer Credit Panel, shows a significant decline in the share of first-time homebuyers, particularly among young households, consistent with the decline in homeownership in this age cohort since the early 2000s.
The College of Built Environments launched a funding opportunity for those whose research has been affected by the ongoing pandemic. The Research Restart Fund, with awards up to $5,000, has awarded 4 grants in its first of two cycles. A grant was awarded to Real Estate faculty member Arthur Acolin, who is partnering with the City of Seattle’s Office of Planning and Community Development to understand barriers that homeowners, particularly those with lower incomes, face to building Accessory Dwelling Units…
Lacoe, Johanna; Bostic, Raphael W.; Acolin, Arthur. (2018). Crime and Private Investment in Urban Neighborhoods. Journal Of Urban Economics, 108, 154 – 169.
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Abstract
The question of how best to improve neighborhoods that lag behind has drawn considerable attention from policy-makers, practitioners, and academics, yet there remains a vigorous debate regarding the best approaches to accomplish community development. This paper investigates the role crime policy plays in shaping the trajectory of neighborhoods. Much of the existing research on neighborhood crime was conducted in rising-crime environments, and the evidence was clear: high levels of crime have adverse effects on neighborhoods and resident quality of life, This study examines how private investment in neighborhoods in two cities Chicago and Los Angeles changed as the incidence of neighborhood crime changed during the 2000s, a period when crime was declining city-wide in both places. Using detailed blockface-level data on the location of crime and private investments between 2006 and 2011, the analysis answers the question: Do changes in crime affect private development decisions? The results show that private investment, as represented by building permits, decreases on blocks where crime increases in the past year. We also find that the relationship between crime and private investment is not symmetric private investment appears to only be sensitive to crime in rising crime contexts. The result is present in both cities, and robust to multiple definitions of crime and the elimination of outliers and the main commercial district. These results suggest that crime-reduction policies can be an effective economic development tool, but only in certain neighborhoods facing specific circumstances.
Keywords
Enterprise Zones; Crime; Investment; Neighborhoods