Ge, Yue ‘gurt’; Lindell, Michael K. (2016). County Planners’ Perceptions of Land-Use Planning Tools for Environmental Hazard Mitigation: A Survey in the US Pacific States. Environment And Planning B-planning & Design, 43(4), 716 – 736.
View Publication
Abstract
Land-use planning tools have been extensively applied in the U.S. to achieve environmental sustainability and disaster resiliency for local communities. An important issue related to land-use planning tools is planners' beliefs about the ways in which these tools differ from each other and, thus, how planners choose among these tools for environmental hazard mitigation. A web-based survey collected data from planners in counties (or boroughs) in the five U.S. Pacific states (where county land-use planning is limited to unincorporated areas). The results indicate that planners substantially, but not completely, agreed in their perceptions of planning tools, that planners' perceptions of planning tools are minimally related to their personal characteristics and those of their jurisdictions, and that planners' perceptions of planning tools are significantly correlated with the capacity of their planning agencies. Planners viewed effectiveness (a desirable attribute) as positively correlated with economic costs and other impediments (which are undesirable attributes) so they must make trade-offs among these attributes and choose the most appropriate tool when formulating a growth management strategy.
Keywords
Interrater Reliability; Local Commitment; Management; Agreement; Index; Planners' Perceptions; Plan-making Processes; Land-use Planning Tools; Environmental Hazard Mitigation; Us Pacific States
Lindell, Michael K.; Sorensen, John H.; Baker, Earl J.; Lehman, William P. (2020). Community Response to Hurricane Threat: Estimates of Household Evacuation Preparation Time Distributions. Transportation Research Part D-transport And Environment, 85.
View Publication
Abstract
Household evacuation preparation time distributions are essential when computing evacuation time estimates (ETEs) for hurricanes with late intensification or late changing tracks. Although evacuation preparation times have been assessed by expected task completion times, actual task completion times, and departure delays, it is unknown if these methods produce similar results. Consequently, this study compares data from one survey assessing expected task completion times, three surveys assessing actual task completion times, and three surveys assessing departure delays after receiving a warning. In addition, this study seeks to identify variables that predict household evacuation preparation times. These analyses show that the three methods of assessing evacuation preparation times produce results that are somewhat different, but the differences have plausible explanations. Household evacuation preparation times are poorly predicted by demographic variables, but are better predicted by variables that predict evacuation decisions-perceived storm characteristics, expected personal impacts, and evacuation facilitators.
Keywords
Travel Demand Model; Decision-making; Communication; Prediction; Simulation; Hurricane Evacuation Models; Preparation Time Distributions; Mobilization Time Distributions; Departure Delay Time Distributions; Social Milling
Huang, Shih-kai; Lindell, Michael K.; Prater, Carla S. (2016). Who Leaves and Who Stays? A Review and Statistical Meta-Analysis of Hurricane Evacuation Studies. Environment And Behavior, 48(8), 991 – 1029.
View Publication
Abstract
This statistical meta-analysis (SMA) examined 38 studies involving actual responses to hurricane warnings and 11 studies involving expected responses to hypothetical hurricane scenarios conducted since 1991. The results indicate official warnings, mobile home residence, risk area residence, observations of environmental (storm conditions) and social (other people's behavior) cues, and expectations of severe personal impacts, all have consistently significant effects on household evacuation. Other variablesespecially demographic variableshave weaker effects on evacuation, perhaps via indirect effects. Finally, the SMA also indicates that the effect sizes from actual hurricane evacuation studies are similar to those from studies of hypothetical hurricane scenarios for 10 of 17 variables that were examined. These results can be used to guide the design of hurricane evacuation transportation analyses and emergency managers' warning programs. They also suggest that laboratory and Internet experiments could be used to examine people's cognitive processing of different types of hurricane warning messages.
Keywords
Decision-making; Risk; Power; Probability; Information; Perception; Responses; Warnings; Ike; Hurricane Evacuation; Statistical Meta-analysis; Actual Evacuations; Hypothetical Scenarios; Hazard Warnings
Chen, Chen; Lindell, Michael K.; Wang, Haizhong. (2021). Tsunami Preparedness and Resilience in the Cascadia Subduction Zone: A Multistage Model of Expected Evacuation Decisions and Mode Choice. International Journal Of Disaster Risk Reduction, 59.
View Publication
Abstract
Physical scientists have estimated that the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) has as much as a 25% chance to produce a M9.0 earthquake and tsunami in the next 50 years, but few studies have used survey data to assess household risk perceptions, emergency preparedness, and evacuation intentions. To understand these phenomena, this study conducted a mail-based household questionnaire using the Protective Action Decision Model (PADM) as a guide to collect 483 responses from two coastal communities in the CSZ: Crescent City, CA and Coos Bay, OR. We applied multistage regression models to assess the effects of critical PADM variables. The results showed that three psychological variables (risk perception, perceived hazard knowledge, and evacuation mode efficacy) were associated with some demographic variables and experience variables. Evacuation intention and evacuation mode choice are associated with those psychological variables but not with demographic variables. Contrary to previous studies, location and experience had no direct impact on evacuation intention or mode choice. We also analyzed expected evacuation mode compliance and the potential of using micro-mobility during tsunami response. This study provides empirical evidence of tsunami preparedness and intentions to support interdisciplinary evacuation modeling, tsunami hazard education, community disaster preparedness, and resilience plans.
Keywords
False Discovery Rate; American-samoa; Earthquake; Washington; Behavior; Oregon; Wellington; Responses; Disaster; Tsunami Evacuation; Cascadia Subduction Zone; Risk Perception
Jon, Ihnji; Lindell, Michael K.; Prater, Carla S.; Huang, Shih-kai; Wu, Hao-che; Johnston, David M.; Becker, Julia S.; Shiroshita, Hideyuki; Doyle, Emma E. H.; Potter, Sally H.; Mcclure, John; Lambie, Emily. (2016). Behavioral Response in the Immediate Aftermath of Shaking: Earthquakes in Christchurch and Wellington, New Zealand, and Hitachi, Japan. International Journal Of Environmental Research And Public Health, 13(11).
View Publication
Abstract
This study examines people's response actions in the first 30 min after shaking stopped following earthquakes in Christchurch and Wellington, New Zealand, and Hitachi, Japan. Data collected from 257 respondents in Christchurch, 332 respondents in Hitachi, and 204 respondents in Wellington revealed notable similarities in some response actions immediately after the shaking stopped. In all four events, people were most likely to contact family members and seek additional information about the situation. However, there were notable differences among events in the frequency of resuming previous activities. Actions taken in the first 30 mins were weakly related to: demographic variables, earthquake experience, contextual variables, and actions taken during the shaking, but were significantly related to perceived shaking intensity, risk perception and affective responses to the shaking, and damage/infrastructure disruption. These results have important implications for future research and practice because they identify promising avenues for emergency managers to communicate seismic risks and appropriate responses to risk area populations.
Keywords
Adjustment; Hazard; Model; Earthquakes; Post-impact Response Actions; Risk Perception
Peers, Justin B.; Gregg, Christopher E.; Lindell, Michael K.; Pelletier, Denis; Romerio, Franco; Joyner, Andrew T. (2021). The Economic Effects of Volcanic Alerts-A Case Study of High-Threat US Volcanoes. Risk Analysis, 41(10).
View Publication
Abstract
A common concern about volcanic unrest is that the communication of information about increasing volcanic alert levels (VALs) to the public could cause serious social and economic impacts even if an eruption does not occur. To test this statement, this study examined housing prices and business patterns from 1974-2016 in volcanic regions with very-high threat designations from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)-Long Valley Caldera (LVC), CA (caldera); Mount St. Helens (MSH), Washington (stratovolcano); and Kilauea, HawaiModified Letter Turned Commai (shield volcano). To compare economic trends in nonvolcanic regions that are economically dependent on tourism, Steamboat Springs, CO, served as a control as it is a ski-tourism community much like Mammoth Lakes in LVC. Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models predicted that housing prices were negatively affected by VALs at LVC from 1982-1983 and 1991-1997. While VALs associated with unrest and eruptions included in this study both had short-term indirect effects on housing prices and business indicators (e.g., number of establishments, employment, and salary), these notifications were not strong predictors of long-term economic trends. Our findings suggest that these indirect effects result from both eruptions with higher level VALs and from unrest involving lower-level VAL notifications that communicate a change in volcanic activity but do not indicate that an eruption is imminent or underway. This provides evidence concerning a systemic issue in disaster resilience. While disaster relief is provided by the U.S. federal government for direct impacts associated with disaster events that result in presidential major disaster declarations, there is limited or no assistance for indirect effects to businesses and homeowners that may follow volcanic unrest with no resulting direct physical losses. The fact that periods of volcanic unrest preceding eruption are often protracted in comparison to precursory periods for other hazardous events (e.g., earthquakes, hurricanes, flooding) makes the issue of indirect effects particularly important in regions susceptible to volcanic activity.
Keywords
Direct Impacts; Econometric Analysis; Indirect Impacts; Risk Assessment; Volcano Alert Levels; Earthquakes; Hurricanes; Threats; Housing Costs; Business Indicators; Disasters; Disaster Relief; Declarations; Volcanoes; Resilience; Tourism; Economics; Flooding; Trends; Calderas; Geological Surveys; Housing Prices; Eruptions; Precursors; Indirect Effects; Business; Disaster Management; Economic Trends; Autoregressive Models; Floods; Employment Status; Prices; Federal Government; Housing; Eruption; Economic Impact; Seismic Activity; Volcanic Activity; Earthquake Prediction; Lakes; Communication; United States--us
Lindell, Michael K.; Huang, Shih-kai; Wei, Hung-lung; Samuelson, Charles D. (2016). Perceptions And Expected Immediate Reactions To Tornado Warning Polygons. Natural Hazards, 80(1), 683 – 707.
View Publication
Abstract
To provide people with more specific information about tornado threats, the National Weather Service has replaced its county-wide warnings with smaller warning polygons that more specifically indicate the risk area. However, tornado warning polygons do not have a standardized definition regarding tornado strike probabilities (p (s)) so it is unclear how warning recipients interpret them. To better understand this issue, 155 participants responded to 15 hypothetical warning polygons. After viewing each polygon, they rated the likelihood of a tornado striking their location and the likelihood that they would take nine different response actions ranging from continuing normal activities to getting in a car and driving somewhere safer. The results showed participants inferred that the p (s) was highest at the polygon's centroid, lower just inside the edges of the polygon, still lower (but not zero) just outside the edges of the polygon, and lowest in locations beyond that. Moreover, higher p (s) values were associated with lower expectations of continuing normal activities and higher expectations of seeking information from social sources (but not environmental cues) and higher expectations of seeking shelter (but not evacuating in their cars). These results indicate that most people make some errors in their p (s) judgments but are likely to respond appropriately to the p (s) they infer from the warning polygons. Overall, the findings from this study and other research can help meteorologists to better understand how people interpret the uncertainty associated with warning polygons and, thus, improve tornado warning systems.
Keywords
Interrater Agreement; Protective Action; Decision-making; Evacuation; Risk; Uncertainty; Residents; Disaster; Probabilities; Preparedness; Tornado Warning Polygons; Risk Perceptions; Protective Actions
Peers, Justin B.; Lindell, Michael K.; Gregg, Christopher E.; Reeves, Ashleigh K.; Joyner, Andrew T.; Johnston, David M. (2021). Multi-Hazard Perceptions at Long Valley Caldera, California, USA. International Journal Of Disaster Risk Reduction, 52.
View Publication
Abstract
Caldera systems such as Long Valley Caldera, California; Taupo, New Zealand; and Campi Flegrei, Italy, experience centuries to millennia without eruption, but have the potential for large eruptions. This raises questions about how local residents' behavioral responses to these low-probability high-consequence events differ from their responses to events, such as wildfires and earthquakes, that have higher probabilities. To examine this issue, a multi-hazard mail survey of 229 households explored perceptions of-and responses to-volcano, earthquake and wildfire hazards in the Long Valley Volcanic Region. Response efficacy was the only significant predictor of emergency preparedness, which suggests that hazard managers can increase household emergency preparedness by emphasizing this attribute of protective actions. In addition to response efficacy, expected personal consequences, hazard intrusiveness, and affective responses were all significantly related to information seeking. This indicates that hazard managers can also increase households' information seeking about local hazards and appropriate protective actions by communicating the certainty and severity of hazard impacts (thus increasing expected personal consequences) and that they communicate this information repeatedly (thus increasing hazard intrusiveness) to produce significant emotional involvement (thus increasing affective response).
Keywords
Households Expected Responses; Risk Information-seeking; Volcanic Risk; Earthquake; Model; Adjustment; Mitigation; Communication; Preparedness; Predictors; Volcano Hazard Perception; Earthquake Hazard Perception; Wildfire Hazard Perception; Emergency Preparedness; Information Seeking
Lindell, Michael K.; Prater, Carla S.; Wu, Hao Che; Huang, Shih-kai; Johnston, David M.; Becker, Julia S.; Shiroshita, Hideyuki. (2016). Immediate Behavioural Responses To Earthquakes In Christchurch, New Zealand, And Hitachi, Japan. Disasters, 40(1), 85 – 111.
View Publication
Abstract
This study examines people's immediate responses to earthquakes in Christchurch, New Zealand, and Hitachi, Japan. Data collected from 257 respondents in Christchurch and 332 respondents in Hitachi revealed notable similarities between the two cities in people's emotional reactions, risk perceptions, and immediate protective actions during the events. Respondents' physical, household, and social contexts were quite similar, but Hitachi residents reported somewhat higher levels of emotional reaction and risk perception than did Christchurch residents. Contrary to the recommendations of emergency officials, the most frequent response of residents in both cities was to freeze. Christchurch residents were more likely than Hitachi residents to drop to the ground and take cover, whereas Hitachi residents were more likely than Christchurch residents to evacuate immediately the building in which they were situated. There were relatively small correlations between immediate behavioural responses and demographic characteristics, earthquake experience, and physical, social, or household context.
Keywords
Natural Disasters; Risk Perception; Earthquakes; Social Context; Emotions; Christchurch (n.z.); Cross‚Äênational Research; Cross-national Research; Emotional Response; Protective Action; Disaster Victims Speak; Risk; Preparedness; Evacuation; Hazard
Lindell, Michael K.; Prater, Carla S.; House, Donald H. (2022). Cascadia Subduction Zone Residents’ Tsunami Evacuation Expectations. Geosciences (2076-3263), 12(5).
View Publication
Abstract
The U.S. Pacific Northwest coast must be prepared to evacuate immediately after a Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake. This requires coastal residents to understand the tsunami threat, have accurate expectations about warning sources, engage in preimpact evacuation preparedness actions, and plan (and practice) their evacuation logistics, including an appropriate transportation mode, evacuation route, and destination. A survey of 221 residents in three communities identified areas in which many coastal residents have reached adequate levels of preparedness. Moreover, residents who are not adequately prepared are willing to improve their performance in most of the areas in which they fall short. However, many respondents expect to engage in time-consuming evacuation preparations before evacuating. Additionally, their estimates of evacuation travel time might be inaccurate because only 28-52% had practiced their evacuation routes. These results indicate that more coastal residents should prepare grab-and-go kits to speed their departure, as well as practice evacuation preparation and evacuation travel to test the accuracy of these evacuation time estimates. Overall, these results, together with recommendations for overcoming them, can guide CSZ emergency managers in methods of improving hazard awareness and education programs. In addition, these data can guide transportation engineers' evacuation analyses and evacuation plans.
Keywords
Subduction Zones; Tsunamis; Tsunami Warning Systems; Civilian Evacuation; Earthquake Zones; Transportation Engineering; Expectation (psychology); Residents; Cascadia Subduction Zone; Evacuation Preparedness; Evacuation Time Estimates; Tsunami; Natural Warning Signs; Coastal Communities; American-samoa; New-zealand; Earthquake; Behavior; Preparedness; Awareness; Japan; Washington; Earthquakes; Transportation; Evacuations & Rescues; Travel Time; Subduction; Surveying; Evacuation; Travel; Coasts; Emergency Warning Programs; Seismic Activity; Emergency Preparedness; Perceptions; Traveltime; Coastal Zone; Peers; Estimates; Logistics; Evacuation Routing; Subduction (geology); Households; United States--us; Pacific Northwest; Cascadia