Lindell, Michael K.; House, Donald H.; Gestring, Jordan; Wu, Hao-Che. (2019). A Tutorial on Dynasearch: A Web-Based System for Collecting Process-Tracing Data in Dynamic Decision Tasks. Behavior Research Methods, 51(6), 2646 – 2660.
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Abstract
This tutorial describes DynaSearch, a Web-based system that supports process-tracing experiments on coupled-system dynamic decision-making tasks. A major need in these tasks is to examine the process by which decision makers search over a succession of situation reports for the information they need in order to make response decisions. DynaSearch provides researchers with the ability to construct and administer Web-based experiments containing both between- and within-subjects factors. Information search pages record participants' acquisition of verbal, numeric, and graphic information. Questionnaire pages query participants' recall of information, inferences from that information, and decisions about appropriate response actions. Experimenters can access this information in an online viewer to verify satisfactory task completion and can download the data in comma-separated text files that can be imported into statistical analysis packages.
Keywords
Downloading; Text Files; Tasks; Access To Information; Statistics; Dynamic Decision Making; Process Tracing; Web-based Experiments; Information Search; Human-behavior; Eye-tracking; Choice; Expectations; Strategies; Mousetrap; Software; Time
Doyle, Emma E. H.; McClure, John; Potter, Sally H.; Lindell, Michael K.; Becker, Julia S.; Fraser, Stuart A.; Johnston, David M. (2020). Interpretations of Aftershock Advice and Probabilities After the 2013 Cook Strait Earthquakes, Aotearoa New Zealand. International Journal Of Disaster Risk Reduction, 49.
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Abstract
Probabilistic statements can be a valuable tool for natural hazard risk communication, including forecasts. However, individuals often have a poor understanding of such probabilistic forecasts caused by them distorting their interpretations of event likelihoods towards the end of the time window and discounting the risk today. We investigated the use of an 'anchoring' time statement to mitigate this bias via an opportunistic survey run after the 2013 Cook Strait earthquakes, near Wellington, New Zealand. Participants rated their interpretations of likelihoods for an immediate aftershock forecast, and for an earthquake in the future. We explored the influence of aftershock and information concern, emotions and felt shaking, gender and education, as well as preparedness actions. The anchoring time window statement mitigated the skew in interpretations for the short (24 h to within 1 week) aftershock forecast statement. However, the skew still existed for the longer future earthquake forecast (7 days to within 1 year). We also found that heightened sensory experience (felt shaking) or emotional reactions (nervousness, fear, alertness) during the earthquakes was associated with an increase in the perceived likelihoods of future events. Gender was found to significantly influence results, with females rating higher levels of information concern and anxiety, and recording higher perceived likelihoods for the immediate aftershock forecast. Findings, including the importance of 'anchoring' time windows within a forecast to encourage immediate preparedness actions, support recommendations for effective crafting of these forecasts and warnings.
Keywords
False Discovery Rate; Risk Perceptions; Natural Hazards; Communication; Uncertainty; Model; Preparedness; Information; Experiences; Intentions; Likelihood; Probabilities; Forecasts; Earthquakes; Emotions; Concern; Gender; Actions
Lindell, Michael K.; Mumpower, Jeryl L.; Huang, Shih-kai; Wu, Hao-che; Samuelson, Charles D. (2015). Exposure Path Perceptions and Protective Actions in Biological Water Contamination Emergencies. Environmental Health Insights, 9, 13 – 21.
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Abstract
This study extends the Protective Action Decision Model, developed to address disaster warning responses in the context of natural hazards, to boil water advisories. The study examined 110 Boston residents' and 203 Texas students' expectations of getting sick through different exposure paths for contact with contaminated water. In addition, the study assessed respondents' actual implementation (for residents) or behavioral expectations (for students) of three different protective actions - bottled water, boiled water, and personally chlorinated water - as well as their demographic characteristics and previous experience with water contamination. The results indicate that people distinguish among the exposure paths, but the differences are small (one-third to one-half of the response scale). Nonetheless, the perceived risk from the exposure paths helps to explain why people are expected to consume (or actually consumed) bottled water rather than boiled or personally chlorinated water. Overall, these results indicate that local authorities should take care to communicate the relative risks of different exposure paths and should expect that people will respond to a boil water order primarily by consuming bottled water. Thus, they should make special efforts to increase supplies of bottled water in their communities during water contamination emergencies.
Keywords
Water Contamination; Exposure Paths; Risk Perception; Protective Action
Hua, Chunlin; Huang, Shih-Kai; Lindell, Michael K.; Yu, Chin-Hsien. (2020). Rural Households’ Perceptions and Behavior Expectations in Response to Seismic Hazard in Sichuan, China. Safety Science, 125.
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Abstract
This study analyzed data from 663 rural households in the city of Jiangyou, Sichuan, China to examine the correlations of expectations of taking nine indoor seismic hazard response actions to a hypothetical earthquake with preparedness efforts, risk perceptions, and information reliance. The results indicate that respondents expect to rely on TV and local authorities as their principal sources of earthquake information. Respondents have greater expectations of infrastructure disruptions than property damage and casualties. In addition, they have greater expectations of taking some alternative actions, such as running outside of the building and helping others, than recommended in-place protective actions such as drop, cover, and hold. However, some erroneous actions, such as protecting property and ignoring the threat, are the least likely. Furthermore, regression analyses indicated that risk perceptions, together with some demographic characteristics and earthquake experience, are significant predictors of recommended in-place protective actions and helping others, whereas evacuation is related to higher risk perceptions. Unsurprisingly, respondents having previous seismic damage experience tend to be concerned about property protection and, similarly, those having fewer years of education are more likely to ignore the threat. This study also found that residents expect to rely on different channels to receive information before and after an earthquake. Nonetheless, respondents expect to engage in similar patterns of behavior during and after an earthquake. The results of this study indicate a need for greater dissemination of earthquake information in such rural areas to increase residents' risk perceptions and, in turn, understanding of appropriate emergency responses.
Keywords
Seismic Response; Risk Perception; Households; Sensory Perception; Property Damage; Sichuan Sheng (china); Information Reliance; Protective Actions; Risk Perceptions; Seismic Hazard; Climate-change; Hurricane Evacuation; Earthquake; Preparedness; Adjustment; Education; Injuries; Communication; Intentions
Ge, Yue ‘gurt’; Lindell, Michael K. (2016). County Planners’ Perceptions of Land-Use Planning Tools for Environmental Hazard Mitigation: A Survey in the US Pacific States. Environment And Planning B-planning & Design, 43(4), 716 – 736.
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Abstract
Land-use planning tools have been extensively applied in the U.S. to achieve environmental sustainability and disaster resiliency for local communities. An important issue related to land-use planning tools is planners' beliefs about the ways in which these tools differ from each other and, thus, how planners choose among these tools for environmental hazard mitigation. A web-based survey collected data from planners in counties (or boroughs) in the five U.S. Pacific states (where county land-use planning is limited to unincorporated areas). The results indicate that planners substantially, but not completely, agreed in their perceptions of planning tools, that planners' perceptions of planning tools are minimally related to their personal characteristics and those of their jurisdictions, and that planners' perceptions of planning tools are significantly correlated with the capacity of their planning agencies. Planners viewed effectiveness (a desirable attribute) as positively correlated with economic costs and other impediments (which are undesirable attributes) so they must make trade-offs among these attributes and choose the most appropriate tool when formulating a growth management strategy.
Keywords
Interrater Reliability; Local Commitment; Management; Agreement; Index; Planners' Perceptions; Plan-making Processes; Land-use Planning Tools; Environmental Hazard Mitigation; Us Pacific States
Lindell, Michael K.; Sorensen, John H.; Baker, Earl J.; Lehman, William P. (2020). Community Response to Hurricane Threat: Estimates of Household Evacuation Preparation Time Distributions. Transportation Research Part D-transport And Environment, 85.
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Abstract
Household evacuation preparation time distributions are essential when computing evacuation time estimates (ETEs) for hurricanes with late intensification or late changing tracks. Although evacuation preparation times have been assessed by expected task completion times, actual task completion times, and departure delays, it is unknown if these methods produce similar results. Consequently, this study compares data from one survey assessing expected task completion times, three surveys assessing actual task completion times, and three surveys assessing departure delays after receiving a warning. In addition, this study seeks to identify variables that predict household evacuation preparation times. These analyses show that the three methods of assessing evacuation preparation times produce results that are somewhat different, but the differences have plausible explanations. Household evacuation preparation times are poorly predicted by demographic variables, but are better predicted by variables that predict evacuation decisions-perceived storm characteristics, expected personal impacts, and evacuation facilitators.
Keywords
Travel Demand Model; Decision-making; Communication; Prediction; Simulation; Hurricane Evacuation Models; Preparation Time Distributions; Mobilization Time Distributions; Departure Delay Time Distributions; Social Milling
Huang, Shih-kai; Lindell, Michael K.; Prater, Carla S. (2016). Who Leaves and Who Stays? A Review and Statistical Meta-Analysis of Hurricane Evacuation Studies. Environment And Behavior, 48(8), 991 – 1029.
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Abstract
This statistical meta-analysis (SMA) examined 38 studies involving actual responses to hurricane warnings and 11 studies involving expected responses to hypothetical hurricane scenarios conducted since 1991. The results indicate official warnings, mobile home residence, risk area residence, observations of environmental (storm conditions) and social (other people's behavior) cues, and expectations of severe personal impacts, all have consistently significant effects on household evacuation. Other variablesespecially demographic variableshave weaker effects on evacuation, perhaps via indirect effects. Finally, the SMA also indicates that the effect sizes from actual hurricane evacuation studies are similar to those from studies of hypothetical hurricane scenarios for 10 of 17 variables that were examined. These results can be used to guide the design of hurricane evacuation transportation analyses and emergency managers' warning programs. They also suggest that laboratory and Internet experiments could be used to examine people's cognitive processing of different types of hurricane warning messages.
Keywords
Decision-making; Risk; Power; Probability; Information; Perception; Responses; Warnings; Ike; Hurricane Evacuation; Statistical Meta-analysis; Actual Evacuations; Hypothetical Scenarios; Hazard Warnings
Chen, Chen; Lindell, Michael K.; Wang, Haizhong. (2021). Tsunami Preparedness and Resilience in the Cascadia Subduction Zone: A Multistage Model of Expected Evacuation Decisions and Mode Choice. International Journal Of Disaster Risk Reduction, 59.
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Abstract
Physical scientists have estimated that the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) has as much as a 25% chance to produce a M9.0 earthquake and tsunami in the next 50 years, but few studies have used survey data to assess household risk perceptions, emergency preparedness, and evacuation intentions. To understand these phenomena, this study conducted a mail-based household questionnaire using the Protective Action Decision Model (PADM) as a guide to collect 483 responses from two coastal communities in the CSZ: Crescent City, CA and Coos Bay, OR. We applied multistage regression models to assess the effects of critical PADM variables. The results showed that three psychological variables (risk perception, perceived hazard knowledge, and evacuation mode efficacy) were associated with some demographic variables and experience variables. Evacuation intention and evacuation mode choice are associated with those psychological variables but not with demographic variables. Contrary to previous studies, location and experience had no direct impact on evacuation intention or mode choice. We also analyzed expected evacuation mode compliance and the potential of using micro-mobility during tsunami response. This study provides empirical evidence of tsunami preparedness and intentions to support interdisciplinary evacuation modeling, tsunami hazard education, community disaster preparedness, and resilience plans.
Keywords
False Discovery Rate; American-samoa; Earthquake; Washington; Behavior; Oregon; Wellington; Responses; Disaster; Tsunami Evacuation; Cascadia Subduction Zone; Risk Perception
Jon, Ihnji; Lindell, Michael K.; Prater, Carla S.; Huang, Shih-kai; Wu, Hao-che; Johnston, David M.; Becker, Julia S.; Shiroshita, Hideyuki; Doyle, Emma E. H.; Potter, Sally H.; Mcclure, John; Lambie, Emily. (2016). Behavioral Response in the Immediate Aftermath of Shaking: Earthquakes in Christchurch and Wellington, New Zealand, and Hitachi, Japan. International Journal Of Environmental Research And Public Health, 13(11).
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Abstract
This study examines people's response actions in the first 30 min after shaking stopped following earthquakes in Christchurch and Wellington, New Zealand, and Hitachi, Japan. Data collected from 257 respondents in Christchurch, 332 respondents in Hitachi, and 204 respondents in Wellington revealed notable similarities in some response actions immediately after the shaking stopped. In all four events, people were most likely to contact family members and seek additional information about the situation. However, there were notable differences among events in the frequency of resuming previous activities. Actions taken in the first 30 mins were weakly related to: demographic variables, earthquake experience, contextual variables, and actions taken during the shaking, but were significantly related to perceived shaking intensity, risk perception and affective responses to the shaking, and damage/infrastructure disruption. These results have important implications for future research and practice because they identify promising avenues for emergency managers to communicate seismic risks and appropriate responses to risk area populations.
Keywords
Adjustment; Hazard; Model; Earthquakes; Post-impact Response Actions; Risk Perception
Peers, Justin B.; Gregg, Christopher E.; Lindell, Michael K.; Pelletier, Denis; Romerio, Franco; Joyner, Andrew T. (2021). The Economic Effects of Volcanic Alerts-A Case Study of High-Threat US Volcanoes. Risk Analysis, 41(10).
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Abstract
A common concern about volcanic unrest is that the communication of information about increasing volcanic alert levels (VALs) to the public could cause serious social and economic impacts even if an eruption does not occur. To test this statement, this study examined housing prices and business patterns from 1974-2016 in volcanic regions with very-high threat designations from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)-Long Valley Caldera (LVC), CA (caldera); Mount St. Helens (MSH), Washington (stratovolcano); and Kilauea, HawaiModified Letter Turned Commai (shield volcano). To compare economic trends in nonvolcanic regions that are economically dependent on tourism, Steamboat Springs, CO, served as a control as it is a ski-tourism community much like Mammoth Lakes in LVC. Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models predicted that housing prices were negatively affected by VALs at LVC from 1982-1983 and 1991-1997. While VALs associated with unrest and eruptions included in this study both had short-term indirect effects on housing prices and business indicators (e.g., number of establishments, employment, and salary), these notifications were not strong predictors of long-term economic trends. Our findings suggest that these indirect effects result from both eruptions with higher level VALs and from unrest involving lower-level VAL notifications that communicate a change in volcanic activity but do not indicate that an eruption is imminent or underway. This provides evidence concerning a systemic issue in disaster resilience. While disaster relief is provided by the U.S. federal government for direct impacts associated with disaster events that result in presidential major disaster declarations, there is limited or no assistance for indirect effects to businesses and homeowners that may follow volcanic unrest with no resulting direct physical losses. The fact that periods of volcanic unrest preceding eruption are often protracted in comparison to precursory periods for other hazardous events (e.g., earthquakes, hurricanes, flooding) makes the issue of indirect effects particularly important in regions susceptible to volcanic activity.
Keywords
Direct Impacts; Econometric Analysis; Indirect Impacts; Risk Assessment; Volcano Alert Levels; Earthquakes; Hurricanes; Threats; Housing Costs; Business Indicators; Disasters; Disaster Relief; Declarations; Volcanoes; Resilience; Tourism; Economics; Flooding; Trends; Calderas; Geological Surveys; Housing Prices; Eruptions; Precursors; Indirect Effects; Business; Disaster Management; Economic Trends; Autoregressive Models; Floods; Employment Status; Prices; Federal Government; Housing; Eruption; Economic Impact; Seismic Activity; Volcanic Activity; Earthquake Prediction; Lakes; Communication; United States--us