Zhang, Lei; Hong, Jinhyun; Nasri, Arefeh; Shen, Qing. (2012). How Built Environment Affects Travel Behavior: A Comparative Analysis of the Connections between Land Use and Vehicle Miles Traveled in US Cities. Journal of Transport and Land Use, 5(3).
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Abstract
Mixed findings have been reported in previous research regarding the impact of built environment on travel behavior, i.e. statistically and practically significant effects found in a number of empirical studies and insignificant correlations shown in many other studies. It is not clear why the estimated impact is stronger or weaker in certain urban areas, and how effective a proposed land use change/policy will be in changing certain travel behavior. This knowledge gap has made it difficult for decision makers to evaluate land use plans and policies according to their impact on vehicle miles traveled (VMT), and consequently their impact on congestion mitigation, energy conservation, and pollution and green house gas emission reduction. This research has several objectives: (1) Re-examine the effects of built-environment factors on travel behavior, in particular VMT in five U.S. metropolitan areas grouped into four case study areas; (2) Develop consistent models in all case study areas with the same model specification and datasets to enable direct comparisons; (3) Identify factors such as existing land use characteristics and land use policy decision-making processes that may explain the different impacts of built environment on VMT in different urban areas; and (4) Provide a prototype tool for government agencies and decision-makers to estimate the impact of proposed land use changes on VMT. The four case study areas include Seattle, WA; Richmond-Petersburg and Norfolk-Virginia Beach, VA; Baltimore, MD; and Washington DC. Our empirical analysis employs Bayesian multilevel models with various person-level socio-economic and demographic variables and five built-environment factors including residential density, employment density, entropy (measuring level of mixed-use development), average block size (measuring transit/walking friendliness), and distance to city center (measuring decentralization and level of infill development). Our findings show that promoting compact, mixed-use, small-block and infill developments can be effective in reducing VMT per person in all four case study areas. However, the effectiveness of land use plans and policies encouraging these types of land developments is different both across case study areas and within the same case study area. We have identified several factors that potentially influence the connection between built environment shifts and VMT changes including urban area size, existing built environment characteristics, transit service coverage and quality, and land use decision-making processes.
Keywords
Built environment; Land use change; Travel behavior; Vehicle miles traveled (VMT); Multilevel Bayesian model; U.S. urban transportation planning policy
Pan, H., Shen, Q., & Zhao, T. (2013). Travel and Car Ownership of Residents near New Suburban Metro Stations in Shanghai, China. Transportation Research Record, 2394(1), 63–69.
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Abstract
Large cities in China are building extensive rail transit systems in combination with transit-oriented development in suburban areas, so that public transportation can play a leading role in supporting rapid urban expansion. Shanghai, China has been a leader in this planning approach. Shanghai's experience can be valuable for other cities facing similar pressures of urbanization, suburbanization, and motorization while striving to improve livability and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. To gain useful insights from Shanghai, a travel survey of residents in a recently developed suburban metro station area was conducted to examine how the city's mass rapid transit (MRT) has influenced residents’ travel and car ownership. With statistical methods, including logistic regression, it was found that (a) MRT was generally adequate in supporting the station area's economic relationships with the central city and local employment locations; (b) a high percentage of residents intended to commute by the MRT when they moved to the suburban station area, and their original intention positively influenced their current travel and car ownership; and (c) rail transit may help temporarily reduce the pace of motorization in households near suburban metro stations by delaying a car purchase and lowering the probability of car use in commuting. However, it was also found that car ownership had been increasing quite rapidly despite the positive effects of a much expanded and improved metro system, and that once a person owned a car, he or she would most likely drive to work.
Levine, J., Grengs, J., Shen, Q., & Shen, Q. (2012). Does Accessibility Require Density or Speed?. Journal of the American Planning Association, 78(2), 157–172.
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Abstract
Problem, research strategy, and findings: Advocates of accessibility as a transportation performance metric often assert that it requires higher density. Conversely, traditional transportation planning methods have valued speed per se as an indicator of success in transportation. In examining these claims, we make two methodological innovations. The first is a new intermetropolitan gravity-based accessibility metric. Second, we decompose the impact of density on accessibility to highlight the distinct opposing influences of speed and proximity in a manner that illustrates different families of relationships between these two factors. This reveals that denser metropolitan regions have slower travel speeds but greater origin-destination proximity. The former effect tends to degrade accessibility while the latter tends to enhance it. Despite theoretical reasons to expect that the speed effect dominates, results suggest that the proximity effect dominates, rendering the denser metropolitan areas more accessible.
Takeaway for practice: Having destinations nearby, as when densities are high, offers benefits even when the associated congestion slows traffic. Where land use policy frequently seeks to support low-development densities in part in an attempt to maintain travel speeds and forestall traffic congestion, our findings suggest that compact development can often improve transportation outcomes.
Research support: Environmental Protection Agency project RD-83334901-0, FHWA Cooperative Agreement Number: DTFH61-07-H-00037, and the Graham Environmental Sustainability Institute at the University of Michigan.
Keywords
accessibility; mobility; speed; proximity; transportation planning
Pan, H., Shen, Q., & Liu, C. (2011).. Transit-Oriented Development at the Urban Periphery: Insights from a Case Study in Shanghai, China. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2245(1), 95–102.
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Abstract
Major cities in China are extending rail transit into the urban periphery to counter urban growth and suburbanization that are automobile-driven and automobile-dependent. In the meantime, transit-oriented development (TOD) has been adopted widely in Chinese cities. Given the adoption of the TOD concept by many rail transit station areas at the peripheries of metropolitan regions, it is imperative to explore how TOD can be applied appropriately there. In this study, two station areas were examined in Songjiang, a district located approximately 30 km from the city center of Shanghai, China. These station areas have developed according to some basic TOD principles, and, in many important ways, they are representative of newly developed rail transit station areas in Shanghai and in other major Chinese cities. The conduct of a questionnaire survey allowed for investigation of resident travel behavior, assessment of the effectiveness of the TOD application, and discussion of how TOD should be adapted to peripheral locations in a large and complex metropolitan region. The study concluded that planners must carefully substantiate the basic TOD concept in connection with this particular kind of application setting. Careful consideration should be paid to mixed land use, differentiated density, and to pedestrian and bicycle travel and their connection with rail transit. Planners also must pay close attention to each peripheral area's economic and social conditions, as well as its relationships with the central city and with other parts of the metropolitan region. This case study not only provided timely feedback on current planning practice in Shanghai and other Chinese cities but also contributed to the literature on the adaptation of TOD to local circumstances.
The Mobility Innovation Center announced that Qing Shen, professor of Urban Design & Planning and an expert in transportation planning and policy, has received a $100,000 award to study commuting patterns and develop a model to understand the effect of telework and flexible scheduling. The project will build off the existing Commute Trip Reduction (CTR) survey for employers who are in the CTR program as required by state law in the central city portion of Seattle. In addition, a complementary…
Pan, Haixiao; Shen, Qing; Xue, Song. (2010). Intermodal Transfer Between Bicycles and Rail Transit in Shanghai, China. Transportation Research Record, 2144, 181 – 188.
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Abstract
Large cities in China are building rail transit systems as part of a key strategy to address their pressing urban transportation problems. Because the high construction cost of subways and light rail limits the network density of rail transit, urban transport planners must seek effective intermodal connections between rail and other modes. This research examines the challenges and opportunities for improving the bicycle rail connection by using Shanghai as a case study. On the basis of two questionnaire surveys of rail transit riders, the research analyzes the existing mode shares of rail station access and egress trips, the underlying mechanisms for choosing among alternative modes, and the comparative advantages of the bicycle for trips that have certain distance and location characteristics. Empirical results suggest that the potential for travel improvement for rail transit riders lies primarily in the collection and distribution phases. Results point to several promising approaches to improving the bicycle rail connection and utilizing the bicycle more fully as an efficient supplement mode for the rapidly expanding urban rail transportation in China. In addition, the work can be a useful reference for cities in other countries in which rail transit development is accompanied by the continued importance of bicycles in residents' travel.
Chen, Peng; Hu, Songhua; Shen, Qing; Lin, Hangfei; Xie, Chi. (2019). Estimating Traffic Volume for Local Streets with Imbalanced Data. Transportation Research Record, 2673(3), 598 – 610.
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Abstract
Annual average daily traffic (AADT) is an important measurement used in traffic engineering. Local streets are major components of a road network. However, automatic traffic recorders (ATRs) used to collect AADT are often limited to arterial roads, and such information is, therefore, often unavailable for local streets. Estimating AADT on local streets becomes a necessity as local street traffic continues to grow and the capacity of arterial roads becomes insufficient. A challenge is that an under-represented sample of local street AADT may result in biased estimation. A synthetic minority oversampling technique (SMOTE) is applied to oversample local streets to correct the imbalanced sampling among different road types. A generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) is employed to estimate AADT incorporating various independent variables, including factors of roadway design, socio-demographics, and land use. The model is examined with an AADT dataset from Seattle, WA. Results show that: (1) SMOTE helps to correct imbalanced sampling proportions and improve model performance significantly; (2) the number of lanes and the number of crosswalks are both positively associated with AADT; (3) road segments located in areas with a higher population density or more mixed land use have a higher AADT; (4) distance to the nearest arterial road is negatively correlated with AADT; and (5) AADT creates spatial spillover effects on neighboring road segments. The combination of SMOTE and GLMM improves the estimation accuracy on AADT, which contributes to better data for transportation planning and traffic monitoring, and to cost saving on data collection.
Keywords
Average; Prediction; Network; County
Rowe, Daniel H.; Bae, Chang-hee Christine; Shen, Qing. (2010). Assessing Multifamily Residential Parking Demand and Transit Service. Ite Journal-institute Of Transportation Engineers, 80(12), 20 – 24.
Abstract
This study examined the relationship of multifamily residential parking demand and transit level of service in Two King County, WA, USA, Urban Centers: First Hill/Capitol Hill (FHCH) and redmond. In addition, current parking policies were assessed for their ability to meet the observed parking demand, and an alternative method to collect parking demand data was explored.
Chen, Peng; Shen, Qing. (2019). Identifying High-risk Built Environments for Severe Bicycling Injuries. Journal of Safety Research, 68, 1 – 7.
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Abstract
Introduction: This study is aimed at filling part of the knowledge gap on bicycling safety in the built environment by addressing two questions. First, are built environment features and bicyclist injury severity correlated; and if so, what built environment factors most significantly relate to severe bicyclist injuries? Second, are the identified associations varied substantially among cities with different levels of bicycling and different built environments? Methods: The generalized ordered logit model is employed to examine the relationship between built environment features and bicyclist injury severity. Results: Bicyclist injury severity is coded into four types, including no injury (NI), possible injury (PI), evident injury (El), and severe injury and fatality (SIF). The findings include: (a) higher percentages of residential land and green space, and office or mixed use land are correlated with lower probabilities of El and SIF; (b) land use mixture is negatively correlated with El and SIF; (c) steep slopes are positively associated with bicyclist injury severity; (d) in areas with more transit routes, bicyclist injury is less likely to be severe; (e) a higher speed limit is more likely to correlate with SIF; and (f) wearing a helmet is negatively associated with SIF, but positively related to PI and El. Practical applications: To improve bicycle safety, urban planners and policymakers should encourage mixed land use, promote dense street networks, place new bike lanes in residential neighborhoods and green spaces, and office districts, while avoiding steep slopes. To promote bicycling, a process of evaluating the risk of bicyclists involving severe injuries in the local environment should be implemented before encouraging bicycle activities. (C) 2018 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords
Motor Vehicle; Land-use; Crashes; Severities; Facilities; Frameworks; Frequency; Cyclists; Bike; Bicyclist Injury Severity; Built Environments; Generalized Ordered Logit Model; Us Cities; Bicycles; Urban Environments; Injuries; Neighborhoods; Land Use; Urban Areas; Paths; Protective Equipment; Bicycling; Fatalities; Correlation; Residential Areas; Traffic Accidents & Safety; Safety; Logit Models; Ecological Risk Assessment; Slopes; Health Risks; Urban Transportation; Studies; Environments
Zhen, Feng; Shen, Qing; Jian, Boxiu; Zheng, Jun. (2010). Regional Governance, Local Fragmentation, and Administrative Division Adjustment: Spatial Integration in Changzhou. China Review-an Interdisciplinary Journal On Greater China, 10(1), 95 – 128.
Abstract
Although the current practice of administrative division adjustment in China may help to facilitate regional governance and urbanization economies, it does not effectively resolve the fundamental conflicts between the central city and surrounding county-level cities. This paper examines the impacts of administrative division adjustment on economic development in Changzhou, Jiangsu Province, by focusing on the city's development zones. It identifies major problems in the development zones and explores the major institutional, policy, sociocultural, and spatial planning factors underlying these problems. It further proposes several approaches for the spatial integration of development zones, from the perspectives of institution, policy, and space, with broader implications that go well beyond the Changzhou case.
Keywords
River Delta; Transition