Martins, Antonio Miguel; Serra, Ana Paula; Martins, Francisco Vitorino; Stevenson, Simon. (2020). House Price Dynamics and Bank Herding: European Empirical Evidence. Journal Of Real Estate Research, 42(3), 365 – 396.
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Abstract
This paper examines house price dynamics, bank herding behavior, and the linkages between them. The analysis presented indicates that prior to the financial crisis, non-fundamental factors played a significant role in several European countries, including the United Kingdom, Spain, Denmark, Sweden, and Ireland. We also provide evidence indicative of herding behavior in the residential mortgage loan market. Finally, Granger causality tests show that non-fundamentally justified price dynamics contributed to the herding displayed by lenders and that this behavior was a response by banks as a group to common information on residential property assets.
Keywords
Bubbles; Market; Behavior; Fundamentals; Constraints; Policy; Model; House Prices; Mortgages; Price Bubble; Herding Behavior
Acolin, Arthur. (2019). Housing Trajectories of Immigrants and Their Children in France: Between Integration and Stratification. Urban Studies (sage Publications, Ltd.), 56(10), 2021 – 2039.
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Abstract
Immigrants have been found to exhibit different housing tenure patterns from the rest of the population in a number of contexts. This article tests whether observed differences in tenure in France can be explained by differences in socio-demographic characteristics or whether unexplained differences might result from housing market mechanisms that affect immigrants differentially from the rest of the population, and extends this to the second generation. The article relies on data from TeO, a survey of 21,761 persons designed to oversample and identify immigrants and their children, providing information about the outcomes of children of immigrants that is otherwise lacking in French statistics. The results indicate that while immigrants are significantly less likely to be homeowners, even after controlling for compositional difference, the gap in homeownership between the second generation and the rest of the population is smaller and not statistically significant. This suggests a progressive integration in the housing market over time and over generations rather than overall stratified housing trajectories. Differences in terms of the share of social housing residents, the level of residential crowding, and housing and neighbourhood characteristics also decline across generations. However, children of immigrants from some non-European origins are experiencing higher levels of stratification than other groups, with continued significant differences in tenure.
Keywords
Immigrants; Housing; Home Ownership; Children Of Immigrants; Housing Market; Social Stratification; France; Homeownership; Housing Trajectories; Tenure; Segmented Assimilation; Location Choices; Wealth; 2nd-generation; Discrimination; Segregation; Inequality; Quality; Markets; Demographics; Homeowners; Neighborhoods; Crowding; Statistical Analysis; Residential Patterns; Children; Trajectories; Residents; Residential Areas; Integration; Statistics; European Cultural Groups; Sociodemographics; Stratification; Demographic Aspects; Second Generation; Property; Public Housing; Noncitizens
Shang, Luming; Lee, Hyun Woo; Dermisi, Sofia; Choe, Youngjun. (2020). Impact of Energy Benchmarking and Disclosure Policy on Office Buildings. Journal Of Cleaner Production, 250.
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Abstract
Building energy benchmarking policies require owners to publicly disclose their building's energy performance. In the US, the adoption of such policies is contributing to an increased awareness among tenants and buyers and is expected to motivate the owners of less efficient buildings to invest in energy efficiency improvements. However, there is a lack of studies specifically aimed at investigating the impact of such policies on office buildings among major cities through quantitative analyses. In response, this study evaluated the effectiveness of the benchmarking policy on energy efficiency improvements decision-making and on real estate performances, by applying two interrupted time series analyses to office buildings in downtown Chicago. The initial results indicate a lack of statistically strong evidence that the policy affected the annual vacancy trend of the energy efficient buildings (represented by ENERGY STAR labeled buildings). However, the use of interrupted time series in a more in-depth analysis shows that the policy is associated with a 6.7% decrease in vacancy among energy efficient buildings. The study proposed a method to quantitatively evaluate the impact of energy policies on the real estate performance of office buildings, and the result confirms the positive impact of energy-efficient retrofits on the real estate performance. The study findings support the reasoning behind the owners' decision in implementing energy efficiency improvements in their office buildings to remain competitive in the market. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords
Office Buildings; Building Failures; Time Series Analysis; Real Property; Energy Consumption; Metropolis; Building Performance; Chicago (ill.); Building Energy Benchmarking And Disclosure Policies; Building Energy Efficiency; Time Series Modeling; Energy Star (program); Building Management Systems; Buildings (structures); Decision Making; Energy Conservation; Maintenance Engineering; Time Series; Disclosure Policy; Energy Benchmarking Policies; Building; Benchmarking Policy; Energy Efficiency Improvements Decision-making; Estate Performance; Energy Efficient Buildings; Energy Star; Energy Policies; Energy-efficient Retrofits; Interrupted Time-series; Regression; Behavior; Designs; Building Energy Benchmarking And; Disclosure Policies; Buildings; Cities; Energy Efficiency; Energy Policy; Markets; Quantitative Analysis; United States
Acolin, Arthur; Goodman, Laurie; Wachter, Susan M. (2019). Accessing Homeownership with Credit Constraints. Housing Policy Debate, 29(1), 108 – 125.
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Abstract
The tightening of mortgage credit in the aftermath of the global financial crisis has been identified as a factor in the decline of homeownership in the United States to 50-year lows. In this article, we review findings about the role of borrowing constraints and tightened credit in lowering access to homeownership. We also discuss how institutional changes could hinder or support this access going forward.
Keywords
Borrowing Constraints; Home Ownership; Mortgage; Model; Race; Homeownership; Credit Access; International Finance; Economic Crisis; Property; Aftermath; Access; Credit; Access To Credit; Economic Models; United States--us
Acolin, Arthur; Ramiller, Alex; Walter, Rebecca J; Thompson, Samantha; Wang, Ruoniu. (2021). Transitioning to Homeownership: Asset Building for Low- and Moderate-Income Households. Housing Policy Debate, 31(6), 1032 – 1049.
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Abstract
This article assesses the asset building of households that take part in shared-equity homeownership (SEH) models. The contribution of this article is a comparison of outcomes for households participating in shared-equity programs with other low- and moderate-income households who rent or own properties without restrictions on appreciation. We matched participants in SEH programs to households with similar characteristics from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) over the 1997-2017 period. The findings indicate that in real terms, median SEH homeowners accumulated about $1,700 in housing wealth annually or around $10,000 during their holding period. This amount is lower than the $2,100 median annual gain in home equity experienced by similar PSID owners but statistically and economically significantly larger than the $16 in annual gain experienced by similar PSID renters. The findings provide evidence that households participating in SEH programs experienced positive, but modest, wealth gains that were slightly lower than those of homeowners in unrestricted units but substantially higher than those of renters.
Keywords
Appreciation; Households; Property; Wealth; Income; Housing; Dynamic Tests; Home Ownership; Assets; Tenants; Equity; Owners
Acolin, Arthur; Hoek-Smit, Marja C.; Eloy, Claudia Magalhaes. (2019). High Delinquency Rates in Brazil’s Minha Casa Minha Vida Housing Program: Possible Causes and Necessary Reforms. Habitat International, 83, 99 – 110.
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Abstract
Brazil's main housing program, Minha Casa Minha Vida (MCMV), has contracted the construction of over 3 million housing units since 2009, providing access to homeownership for low and middle-income households through a combination of credit, subsidies and guarantees. In this paper, we analyze disaggregated delinquency information at the project level for the section of the program that serves households in the lowest income range (Faixa 1). Our analysis of program performance in six metropolitan regions shows an overall level of delinquency of 28% as of the end of 2015. We identify four hypotheses to explain this elevated level of delinquency: the peripheral location of the units, insufficient income to cover ongoing costs, moral hazard in the management of the program, and organized crime in some projects. Our analysis shows that in 4 of the 6 regions, low-income projects in peripheral locations exhibit substantially higher non-payment levels and that lower income households have higher levels of delinquency. Based on our analysis, we recommend modifications to program design, including the inclusion of location criteria in subsidy scaling. The findings provide evidence of the limits of MCMV Faixa l's approach to solving Brazilian low-income housing needs and contribute to an emerging body of literature pointing to the importance of location in housing programs.
Keywords
Income; Urban Growth; Housing; Home Ownership; Moral Hazard; Affordable Housing; Delinquency Rate; Housing Program; Integrated Urban Development; Programa Minha Casa Minha Vida; Social Housing; Mexico; Scale
Colburn, Gregg. (2021). The Use of Markets in Housing Policy: A Comparative Analysis of Housing Subsidy Programs. Housing Studies, 36(1), 46 – 79.
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Abstract
Many countries use demand-side housing subsidies to support low-income households. Unlike public or social housing programs, demand-side subsidies require recipients to enter the private market to use their benefits. The focus of this study is the experiences of assisted households in the private housing market and the outcomes they achieve. Given the link between policy design and program outcomes and because all housing subsidy programs are not created equal, one might expect the experiences and outcomes of recipients to also vary. To examine this relationship, using data from national housing surveys, this study analyzes cross-national variation in housing support programs and compares the housing and neighbourhood outcomes of subsidized households in the US, the UK, and the Netherlands. The findings of this study highlight that market context and policy design are associated with housing outcomes. In particular, the strong tenant supports and favourable design of housing assistance in the Netherlands is associated with favourable outcomes for subsidized households. In the US and the UK, subsidized households, in general, underperform their unsubsidized peers. This article underscores the importance of institutional context and program design when public assistance programs require recipients to enter the private market to use a benefit.
Keywords
Housing; Housing Subsidies; Comparative Studies; United States; Great Britain; Netherlands; Comparative; Outcomes; Subsidized Housing; Subsidy; Choice Vouchers; Poverty Deconcentration; United-states; Tax Credit; Income; Neighborhoods; Opportunity; Future; Britain; Comparative Analysis; Subsidies; Households; Context; Housing Policy; Design; Subsidies (financial); Housing Market; Low Income Groups; Public Housing; Assistance Programmes; United Kingdom--uk; United States--us
Acolin, Arthur; Lin, Desen; Wachter, Susan M. (2019). Endowments and Minority Homeownership. Cityscape, 21(1), 5 – 62.
Abstract
Fifty years after the adoption of the 1968 Fair Housing Act that prohibits discrimination in the housing market, homeownership rates have not increased for Black or Hispanic households. The current homeownership rate for Black households is 42 percent, identical to the 1970 census reported level, and 48 percent for Hispanic households, lower than that in 1970. Using data from the 1989, 2005, and 2013 American Housing Surveys, we identify the extent to which group differences in household endowments account for persistently low minority homeownership levels.
Keywords
Borrowing Constraints; Household Formation; Race; Wealth; Trends; Rates
Costa, Ana; Sass, Victoria; Kennedy, Ian; Roy, Roshni; Walter, Rebecca J.; Acolin, Arthur; Crowder, Kyle; Hess, Chris; Ramiller, Alex; Chasins, Sarah. (2021). Toward a Cross-Platform Framework: Assessing the Comprehensiveness of Online Rental Listings. Cityscape, 23(2), 327 – 339.
Abstract
Research on rental housing markets in the United States has traditionally relied on national or local housing surveys. Those sources lack temporal and spatial specificity, limiting their use for tracking short-term changes in local markets. As rental housing ads have transitioned to digital spaces, a growing body of literature has utilized web scraping to analyze listing practices and variations in rental market dynamics. Those studies have primarily relied on one platform, Craigslist, as a source of data. Despite Craigslist's popularity, the authors contend that rental listings from various websites, rather than from individual ones, provide a more comprehensive picture. Using a mixed-methods approach to study listings across various platforms in five metropolitan areas, this article demonstrates considerable variation in both the types of rental units advertised and the features provided across those platforms. The article begins with an account of the birth and consolidation of online rental platforms and emergent characteristics of several selected websites, including the criteria for posting, search parameters, search results priority, and first-page search results. Visualizations are used to compare features such as the 40th percentile of rent, rent distribution, and bedroom size based on scraped data from six online platforms (Padmapper, Forrent.com , Trulia, Zillow, Craigslist, and GoSection8), 2020 Fair Market Rents, and 2019 American Community Survey data. The analyses indicate that online listing platforms target different audiences and offer distinct information on units within those market segments, resulting in markedly different estimates of local rental costs and unit size distribution depending on the platform.
Ametefe, Frank Kwakutse; Devaney, Steven; Stevenson, Simon Andrew. (2019). Optimal Composition of Hybrid/Blended Real Estate Portfolios. Journal Of Property Investment & Finance, 37(1), 20 – 41.
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Abstract
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to establish an optimum mix of liquid, publicly traded assets that may be added to a real estate portfolio, such as those held by open-ended funds, to provide the liquidity required by institutional investors, such as UK defined contribution pension funds. This is with the objective of securing liquidity while not unduly compromising the risk-return characteristics of the underlying asset class. This paper considers the best mix of liquid assets at different thresholds for a liquid asset allocation, with the performance then evaluated against that of a direct real estate benchmark index. Design/methodology/approach The authors employ a mean-tracking error optimisation approach in determining the optimal combination of liquid assets that can be added to a real estate fund portfolio. The returns of the optimised portfolios are compared to the returns for portfolios that employ the use of either cash or listed real estate alone as a liquidity buffer. Multivariate generalised autoregressive models are used along with rolling correlations and tracking errors to gauge the effectiveness of the various portfolios in tracking the performance of the benchmark index. Findings The results indicate that applying formal optimisation techniques leads to a considerable improvement in the ability of the returns from blended real estate portfolios to track the underlying real estate market. This is the case at a number of different thresholds for the liquid asset allocation and in cases where a minimum return requirement is imposed.
Keywords
Hedge-fund-replication; Volatility Dynamics; Tracking Error; Stock; Performance; Property; Returns; Markets; Private; Model; Open-ended Funds; Real Estate Liquidity; Portfolio Optimization; Blended Real Estate; Defined Contribution Pensions