El-Anwar, Omar; Chen, Lei. (2016). Automated Community-Based Housing Response: Offering Temporary Housing Solutions Tailored to Displaced Populations Needs. Journal Of Computing In Civil Engineering, 30(6).
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Abstract
Following disasters, emergency management agencies are under immense pressure to make quick decisions regarding the provision of temporary housing, including their locations and types. Such decisions can significantly impact the socioeconomic recovery of displaced families and available budgets for other postdisaster activities. To address these challenges, a new holistic temporary housing planning framework is proposed to offer customized housing plans tailored to the specific social, economic, and psychological needs of displaced families while controlling expenditures. This paper presents the theoretical formulation and implementation details of the community-based housing response pool, which is a comprehensive framework that aims at (1)quantifying the specific needs and preferences of each displaced family, (2)evaluating the ability of housing alternatives to meet those needs, (3)computing temporary housing life cycle costs, and (4)optimizing housing decisions accordingly. The paper also presents an application example to demonstrate and evaluate the optimization model capabilities.
Keywords
Decision Making; Disasters; Emergency Management; Life Cycle Costing; Optimisation; Socio-economic Effects; Town And Country Planning; Automated Community-based Housing Response; Temporary Housing Solutions; Displaced Population Needs; Emergency Management Agencies; Temporary Housing Provision; Housing Locations; Housing Types; Socioeconomic Recovery; Displaced Families; Postdisaster Activity Budgets; Holistic Temporary Housing Planning Framework; Customized Housing Plans Tailored; Expenditure Control; Community-based Housing Response Pool; Housing Alternatives Ability Evaluation; Temporary Housing Life Cycle Cost Computing; Housing Decisions Optimization; Optimization Model Capabilities; Multiobjective Optimization; Maeviz-hazturk; Earthquake
Lindell, Michael K.; Huang, Shih-kai; Wei, Hung-lung; Samuelson, Charles D. (2016). Perceptions And Expected Immediate Reactions To Tornado Warning Polygons. Natural Hazards, 80(1), 683 – 707.
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Abstract
To provide people with more specific information about tornado threats, the National Weather Service has replaced its county-wide warnings with smaller warning polygons that more specifically indicate the risk area. However, tornado warning polygons do not have a standardized definition regarding tornado strike probabilities (p (s)) so it is unclear how warning recipients interpret them. To better understand this issue, 155 participants responded to 15 hypothetical warning polygons. After viewing each polygon, they rated the likelihood of a tornado striking their location and the likelihood that they would take nine different response actions ranging from continuing normal activities to getting in a car and driving somewhere safer. The results showed participants inferred that the p (s) was highest at the polygon's centroid, lower just inside the edges of the polygon, still lower (but not zero) just outside the edges of the polygon, and lowest in locations beyond that. Moreover, higher p (s) values were associated with lower expectations of continuing normal activities and higher expectations of seeking information from social sources (but not environmental cues) and higher expectations of seeking shelter (but not evacuating in their cars). These results indicate that most people make some errors in their p (s) judgments but are likely to respond appropriately to the p (s) they infer from the warning polygons. Overall, the findings from this study and other research can help meteorologists to better understand how people interpret the uncertainty associated with warning polygons and, thus, improve tornado warning systems.
Keywords
Interrater Agreement; Protective Action; Decision-making; Evacuation; Risk; Uncertainty; Residents; Disaster; Probabilities; Preparedness; Tornado Warning Polygons; Risk Perceptions; Protective Actions
Stewart, Orion T.; Carlos, Heather A.; Lee, Chanam; Berke, Ethan M.; Hurvitz, Philip M.; Li, Li; Moudon, Anne Vernez; Doescher, Mark P. (2016). Secondary GIS Built Environment Data for Health Research: Guidance for Data Development. Journal Of Transport & Health, 3(4), 529 – 539.
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Abstract
Built environment (BE) data in geographic information system (GIS) format are increasingly available from public agencies and private providers. These data can provide objective, low-cost BE data over large regions and are often used in public health research and surveillance. Yet challenges exist in repurposing GIS data for health research. The GIS data do not always capture desired constructs; the data can be of varying quality and completeness; and the data definitions, structures, and spatial representations are often inconsistent across sources. Using the Small Town Walkability study as an illustration, we describe (a) the range of BE characteristics measurable in a GIS that may be associated with active living, (b) the availability of these data across nine U.S. small towns, (c) inconsistencies in the GIS BE data that were available, and (d) strategies for developing accurate, complete, and consistent GIS BE data appropriate for research. Based on a conceptual framework and existing literature, objectively measurable characteristics of the BE potentially related to active living were classified under nine domains: generalized land uses, morphology, density, destinations, transportation system, traffic conditions, neighborhood behavioral conditions, economic environment, and regional location. At least some secondary GIS data were available across all nine towns for seven of the 9 BE domains. Data representing high-resolution or behavioral aspects of the BE were often not available. Available GIS BE data - especially tax parcel data often contained varying attributes and levels of detail across sources. When GIS BE data were available from multiple sources, the accuracy, completeness, and consistency of the data could be reasonable ensured for use in research. But this required careful attention to the definition and spatial representation of the BE characteristic of interest. Manipulation of the secondary source data was often required, which was facilitated through protocols. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords
Geographic Information-systems; Physical-activity; Land-use; Walking; Neighborhood; Associations; Density; Design; Adults; Travel; Active Travel; Pedestrian; Urban Design; Community Health; Rural
Chaix, Basile; Duncan, Dustin; Vallee, Julie; Vernez-moudon, Anne; Benmarhnia, Tarik; Kestens, Yan. (2017). The Residential Effect Fallacy in Neighborhood and Health Studies Formal Definition, Empirical Identification, and Correction. Epidemiology, 28(6), 789 – 797.
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Abstract
Background: Because of confounding from the urban/rural and socioeconomic organizations of territories and resulting correlation between residential and nonresidential exposures, classically estimated residential neighborhood-outcome associations capture nonresidential environment effects, overestimating residential intervention effects. Our study diagnosed and corrected this residential effect fallacy bias applicable to a large fraction of neighborhood and health studies. Methods: Our empirical application investigated the effect that hypothetical interventions raising the residential number of services would have on the probability that a trip is walked. Using global positioning systems tracking and mobility surveys over 7 days (227 participants and 7440 trips), we employed a multilevel linear probability model to estimate the trip-level association between residential number of services and walking to derive a naive intervention effect estimate and a corrected model accounting for numbers of services at the residence, trip origin, and trip destination to determine a corrected intervention effect estimate (true effect conditional on assumptions). Results: There was a strong correlation in service densities between the residential neighborhood and nonresidential places. From the naive model, hypothetical interventions raising the residential number of services to 200, 500, and 1000 were associated with an increase by 0.020, 0.055, and 0.109 of the probability of walking in the intervention groups. Corrected estimates were of 0.007, 0.019, and 0.039. Thus, naive estimates were overestimated by multiplicative factors of 3.0, 2.9, and 2.8. Conclusions: Commonly estimated residential intervention-outcome associations substantially overestimate true effects. Our somewhat paradoxical conclusion is that to estimate residential effects, investigators critically need information on nonresidential places visited.
Keywords
Self-rated Health; Record Cohort; Physical-activity; Transportation Modes; Built Environment; Activity Spaces; Research Agenda; Risk-factors; Associations; Exposure
Lindell, Michael K.; Mumpower, Jeryl L.; Huang, Shih-kai; Wu, Hao-che; Samuelson, Charles D.; Wei, Hung-lung. (2017). Perceptions of Protective Actions for a Water Contamination Emergency. Journal Of Risk Research, 20(7), 887 – 908.
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Abstract
Local authorities who believe their water systems are contaminated need to warn those at risk to take protective actions. In the past, such efforts have often achieved only partial success in preventing people from deciding to continue consumption of contaminated drinking water. To examine the possible antecedents of decisions to comply with water consumption advisories, this study examined 110 Boston residents' actual protective actions and 203 Texas students' expected protective actions; their perceptions of three protective actions on seven attributes; and their risk perceptions, water contamination experience, facilitating conditions, and demographic characteristics. The profiles of the protective actions for the hazard-related and resource-related attributes suggest reasons why people preferred to use bottled water rather than boil or personally chlorinate water. In particular, perceived effectiveness in protecting health was the most important correlate of protective action, which means that a protective action can have a high level of implementation even though it has poor ratings on other attributes such as cost. In addition, this study indicates public health officials may also need to address people's misconceptions about the hazard-related and resource-related attributes of any relevant protective actions. Finally, consistent with an extensive body of previous research, students were similar to residents in many important respects even though were some statistically significant differences.
Keywords
Action Decision-model; Hazard Adjustments; College-students; Plant Accident; Risks; Metaanalysis; Triviality; Attitudes; Behavior; Adoption; Water Contamination; Risk Perception; Protective Action; Protective Action Attributes; Student Vs; Population Samples
Yi, June-seong; Kim, Yong-woo; Lim, Ji Youn; Lee, Jeehee. (2017). Activity-Based Life Cycle Analysis of a Curtain Wall Supply for Reducing Its Environmental Impact. Energy And Buildings, 138, 69 – 79.
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Abstract
Life-Cycle Assessment has been used extensively in the construction industry to assess the environmental impacts of building materials. Attributional LCA considers processes in a supply chain which allows users to identify a process to improve to minimize the environmental impacts. However, the level of detail adopted in traditional attributional LCA is aggregate, not appropriate for process improvement efforts in the construction project context which is characterized as a complex system. This paper proposes Activity-based LCA (ABLCA) which adopts the methodology of the activity-based costing system to carry out the assessment and analysis of environmental impacts for the life cycle. The research carried out a case study on the curtain wall supply chain. The outcome of inventory analysis for each activity and environmental impact assessment showed the curtain wall supply chain process made an impact on five environmental impact categories: global warming air, acidification air, HH criteria air; eutrophication air, and photochemical smog air. With comparison to the outcome of environmental impact assessment from existing LCA, the proposed management system to investigate environmental impacts was addressed. The proposed ABLCA enables management to develop an environmental-impacts-reduction plan focusing on critical activities. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Keywords
Construction Industry & The Environment; Energy Conservation In Construction Industry; Building Materials & The Environment; Complexity (philosophy); Global Warming & The Environment; Activity-based Management; Attributional Lca (life-cycle Assessment); Curtain Wall; Environmental Impacts; Activity-based Life Cycle Analysis; Ablca; Construction Industry; Building Materials; Inventory Analysis; Life-cycle Assessment; Environmental Impact Categories; Curtain Wall Supply Chain Process; Environmental Impact Assessment; Environmental-impacts-reduction Plan; Environmental Factors; Inventory Management; Life Cycle Costing; Product Life Cycle Management; Supply Chain Management; Walls; United-states; Performance; Buildings; Energy; Trends; Lca; Environmental Impact; Supply Chains; Environmental Assessment; Construction Materials; Life Cycle Engineering; Eutrophication; Life Cycle Analysis; Construction; Climate Change; Global Warming; Smog; Life Cycle Assessment; Case Studies; Cost Analysis; Acidification; Photochemical Smog; Environmental Management; Life Cycles
Kang, Bumjoon; Moudon, Anne V.; Hurvitz, Philip M.; Saelens, Brian E. (2018). Increased Walking’s Additive and No Substitution Effect on Total Physical Activity. Medicine & Science In Sports & Exercise, 50(3), 468 – 475.
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Abstract
Purpose We assessed the associations between a change in time spent walking and a change in total physical activity (PA) time within an urban living adult sample to test for additive or substitution effects. Methods Participants living in the greater Seattle area were assessed in 2008-2009 and again 1-2 yr later (2010-2011). At each time point, they wore accelerometers and GPS units and recorded trips and locations in a travel diary for seven consecutive days. These data streams were combined to derive a more objective estimate of walking and total PA. Participants also completed the International Physical Activity Questionnaire to provide self-reported estimates of walking and total PA. Regression analyses assessed the associations between within-participant changes in objective and self-reported walking and total PA. Results Data came from 437 participants. On average, a 1-min increase in total walking was associated with an increase in total PA of 1 min, measured by objective data, and 1.2-min, measured by self-reported data. A similar additive effect was consistently found with utilitarian, transportation, or job-related walking, measured by both objective and self-reported data. For recreational walking, the effect of change was mixed between objective and self-reported results. Conclusion Both objective and self-reported data confirmed an additive effect of utilitarian and total walking on PA.
Keywords
Accelerometers; Global Positioning System; Metropolitan Areas; Questionnaires; Recreation; Self-evaluation; Time; Walking; Physical Activity; Accelerometer; Gps; Ipaq; Longitudinal Study; Self-reported Measures; Light-rail Construction; Built Environment; Accelerometer Data; Older-adults; Urban Form; Transit Use; Travel; Neighborhood; Interventions; Calibration
Simonen, K.; Huang, M.; Aicher, C.; Morris, P. (2018). Embodied Carbon as a Proxy for the Environmental Impact of Earthquake Damage Repair. Energy And Buildings, 164, 131 – 139.
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Abstract
In evaluating the life cycle environmental impacts of buildings, the contributions of seismic damage are rarely considered. In order to enable a more comprehensive assessment of a building's environmental impact by accounting for seismic events, this project developed an environmental impact database of building component seismic damage - the largest of its kind known to date - by combining data from Carnegie Mellon University's Economic Input-Output Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) database with cost estimates of repair previously developed for FEMA's Performance Assessment Calculation Tool (PACT), a software that models probabilistic seismic damage in buildings. Fifteen indicators of environmental impacts were calculated for the repair of approximately 800 building components for up to five levels of seismic damage, capturing 'embodied' impacts related to cradle-to-gate manufacturing of building materials, products, and equipment. Analysis of the data revealed that non-structural and architectural finishes often dominated the environmental impacts of seismic damage per dollar spent in repair. A statistical analysis was performed on the data using Principal Component Analysis, confirming that embodied carbon, a popular metric for evaluating environmental impacts in building LCAs, is a suitable proxy for other relevant environmental impact metrics when assessing the impact of repairing earthquake damage of buildings. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Keywords
Life-cycle Assessment; Input-output; Buildings; Life Cycle Assessment; Seismic Analysis; Performance-based Design; Economic Input-output; Principal Component Analysis; Energy And Climate Change; Architectural Engineering; Carbon; Carbon Cycle; Earthquake Damage; Earthquakes; Environmental Impact; Environmental Management; Databases; Finishes; Environmental Assessment; Building Components; Construction Materials; Life Cycle Engineering; Life Cycle Analysis; Data Bases; Damage Assessment; Aseismic Buildings; Statistical Analysis; Equipment Costs; Cost Estimates; Data Processing; Data Analysis; Seismic Activity; Cost Analysis; Principal Components Analysis; Performance Assessment; Life Cycles; Repair; Impact Damage; Building Materials; Economic Analysis; Software
Ametefe, Frank Kwakutse; Devaney, Steven; Stevenson, Simon Andrew. (2019). Optimal Composition of Hybrid/Blended Real Estate Portfolios. Journal Of Property Investment & Finance, 37(1), 20 – 41.
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Abstract
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to establish an optimum mix of liquid, publicly traded assets that may be added to a real estate portfolio, such as those held by open-ended funds, to provide the liquidity required by institutional investors, such as UK defined contribution pension funds. This is with the objective of securing liquidity while not unduly compromising the risk-return characteristics of the underlying asset class. This paper considers the best mix of liquid assets at different thresholds for a liquid asset allocation, with the performance then evaluated against that of a direct real estate benchmark index. Design/methodology/approach The authors employ a mean-tracking error optimisation approach in determining the optimal combination of liquid assets that can be added to a real estate fund portfolio. The returns of the optimised portfolios are compared to the returns for portfolios that employ the use of either cash or listed real estate alone as a liquidity buffer. Multivariate generalised autoregressive models are used along with rolling correlations and tracking errors to gauge the effectiveness of the various portfolios in tracking the performance of the benchmark index. Findings The results indicate that applying formal optimisation techniques leads to a considerable improvement in the ability of the returns from blended real estate portfolios to track the underlying real estate market. This is the case at a number of different thresholds for the liquid asset allocation and in cases where a minimum return requirement is imposed.
Keywords
Hedge-fund-replication; Volatility Dynamics; Tracking Error; Stock; Performance; Property; Returns; Markets; Private; Model; Open-ended Funds; Real Estate Liquidity; Portfolio Optimization; Blended Real Estate; Defined Contribution Pensions
Jon, Ihnji. (2019). Resilience and ‘Technicity’: Challenges and Opportunities for New Knowledge Practices in Disaster Planning. Resilience-International Policies Practices and Discourses, 7(2), 107 – 125.
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Abstract
With increasing exposure to environmental catastrophes and natural hazards, the terminology of 'resilience' is becoming ubiquitous in the planning field. As a part of this continuing discussion, this paper examines how the concept of resilience has been used in disaster planning, especially with a focus on the creation and use of knowledge to 'build resilience' in response to potential future natural hazard events. In discussing the practice of creating and using knowledge in disaster planning, I draw insights from the interdisciplinary critical studies of science and technology literature, which has been developing rich discussions on the challenges we face in producing geographical knowledge. I demonstrate in this paper how resilience theory can be linked with the concept of 'technicity' used in the virtual geography literature, and how that association can have meaningful implications for the production and application of knowledge in disaster planning.
Keywords
Community Resilience; Adaptive Capacity; Vulnerability; Hazard; Risk; Sustainability; Participation; Geographies; Uncertainty; Complexity; Resilience; Technicity; Disaster Planning; Virtual Geography; Knowledge Practice