Scholarship on climate change mitigation and adaptation, as well as energy efficiency
Seto, Karen C.; Golden, Jay S.; Alberti, Marina; Turner, B. L., Ii. (2017). Sustainability in an Urbanizing Planet. Proceedings Of The National Academy Of Sciences Of The United States Of America, 114(34), 8935 – 8938.
Sustainability; Urbanization; Nature; Environment
Wang, Kaiwen; Liu, Xiaomang; Tian, Wei; Li, Yanzhong; Liang, Kang; Liu, Changming; Li, Yuqi; Yang, Xiaohua. (2019). Pan Coefficient Sensitivity to Environment Variables across China. Journal Of Hydrology, 572, 582 – 591.
Data of open water evaporation (E-ow), such as evaporation of lake and reservoir, have been widely used in hydraulic and hydrological engineering projects, and water resources planning and management in agriculture, forestry and ecology. Because of the low-cost and maneuverability, measuring the evaporation of a pan has been widely regarded as a reliable approach to estimate E-ow through multiplying an appropriate pan coefficient (K-p). K-p is affected by geometry and materials of a pan, and complex surrounding environment variables. However, the relationship between K-p and different environment variables is unknown. Thus, this study chose China D20 pan as an example, used meteorological observations from 767 stations and introduced the latest PenPan model to analyze the sensitivity of K-p to different environment variables. The results show that, the distribution of annual K-p had a strong spatial gradient. For all the stations, annual K-p ranged from 0.31 to 0.89, and decreased gradually from southeast to northwest. The sensitivity analysis shows that for China as a whole, K-p was most sensitive to relative humidity, followed by air temperature, wind speed and sunshine duration. For 767 stations in China, K-p was most sensitive to relative humidity for almost all the stations. For stations north of Yellow River, wind speed and sunshine duration were the next sensitive variables; while for stations south of Yellow River, air temperature was the next sensitive variable. The method introduced in this study could benefit estimating and predicting K-p under future changing environment.
Atmospheric Temperature; Hydraulic Engineering; Meteorological Observations; Humidity; Water Supply; Evaporation (meteorology); Sunshine; Lake Management; China; Kp Most Sensitive To Relative Humidity; Open Water Evaporation; Pan Coefficient (kp); Pan Evaporation; Sensitivity Analysis; Reference Evapotranspiration; Reference Crop; Evaporation; Water; Model; Pan Coefficient (k-p); K-p Most Sensitive To Relative Humidity; Air Temperature; Ecology; Forestry; Geometry; Hydrologic Engineering; Lakes; Maneuverability; Meteorological Data; Models; Planning; Prediction; Relative Humidity; Solar Radiation; Wind Speed; Yellow River
Savitch, Ethan; Frank, Adam; Carroll-Nellenback, Jonathan; Haqq-Misra, Jacob; Kleidon, Axel; Alberti, Marina. (2021). Triggering a Climate Change Dominated Anthropocene: Is it Common Among Exocivilizations? Astronomical Journal, 162(5).
We seek to model the coupled evolution of a civilization and its host planet through the era when energy harvesting by the civilization drives the planet into new and adverse climate states. In this way, we ask if triggering Anthropocenes of the kind humanity is experiencing might be a generic feature of planet-civilization evolution. This question has direct consequences for both the study of astrobiology and the sustainability of human civilization. Furthermore, if Anthropocenes prove fatal for some civilizations then they can be considered as one form of a Great Filter and are therefore relevant to discussions of the Fermi Paradox. In this study, we focus on the effects of energy harvesting via combustion and vary the planet's initial chemistry and orbital radius. We find that in this context, the most influential parameter dictating a civilization's fate is their host planet's climate sensitivity, which quantifies how global temperatures change as CO2 is added to the atmosphere. Furthermore, this is in itself a function of the planet's atmospheric CO2 level, so planets with low levels of CO2 will have high climate sensitivities and high probabilities of triggering climate change. Using simulations of the coupled nonlinear model combined with semi-analytic treatments, we find that most planets in our initial parameter space experience diminished growth due to climate effects, an event we call a climate-dominated Anthropocene.
Habitable Planets; Complex Life; Evolution; Earth
Van Den Wymelenberg, Kevin; Brown, G. Z.; Burpee, Heather; Djunaedy, Ery; Gladics, Gunnar; Kline, Jeff; Loveland, Joel; Meek, Christopher; Thimmanna, Harshana. (2013). Evaluating Direct Energy Savings and Market Transformation Effects: A Decade of Technical Design Assistance in the Northwestern USA. Energy Policy, 52, 342 – 353.
This paper documents the direct energy savings and energy efficiency market transformation impacts of a multi-state design assistance program in the northwestern US. The paper addresses four specific aims. (1) It provides a conservative and justified estimate of the direct energy savings associated with design assistance activities of a market transformation program from 2001 to 2010. (2) It provides a rigorous methodology to evaluate direct energy savings associated with design assistance market transformation programs. (3) It provides a low-cost replicable method to predict energy savings in new buildings by evaluating the integrated design process. (4) It provides quantitative indicators useful for estimating indirect energy savings from market transformation. Applying the recommended analysis method and assuming a 12-year measure life, the direct energy savings of the population (626 buildings; 51,262,000 ft(2)) is estimated as 453 aMW (average megawatts) (electric), and 265,738.089 therms (non-electric). If the entire program budget were divided into the electric savings only, the Lab Network cost per kWh saved ranged from $0.0016 to $0.003 using the recommended method and $0.0092/kWh using the most conservative method. These figures do not isolate contextual influences or represent total resource cost. Statistically significant correlations (r(2)=0.1-0.3) between integrated design scores and energy savings are reported. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Programs; Sweden; Energy Efficiency; Market Transformation; Evaluation
Shakouri, Mahmoud; Lee, Hyun Woo; Kim, Yong-woo. (2017). A Probabilistic Portfolio-Based Model for Financial Valuation of Community Solar. Applied Energy, 191, 709 – 726.
Community solar has emerged in recent years as an alternative to overcome the limitations of individual rooftop photovoltaic (PV) systems. However, there is no existing model available to support probabilistic valuation and design of community solar based on the uncertain nature of system performance over time. In response, the present study applies the Mean-Variance Portfolio Theory to develop a probabilistic model that can be used to increase electricity generation or reduce volatility in community solar. The study objectives include identifying the sources of uncertainties in PV valuation, developing a probabilistic model that incorporates the identified uncertainties into portfolios, and providing potential investors in community solar with realistic financial indicators. This study focuses on physical, environmental, and financial uncertainties to construct a set of optimized portfolios. Monte Carlo simulation is then performed to calculate the return on investment (ROI) and the payback period of each portfolio. Lastly, inclusion vs. exclusion of generation and export tariffs are compared for each financial indicator. The results show that the portfolio with the maximum output offers the highest ROI and shortest payback period while the portfolio with the minimum risk indicates the lowest ROI and longest payback period. This study also reveals that inclusion of tariffs can significantly influence the financial indicators, even more than the other identified uncertainties. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Solar Energy; Photovoltaic Power Systems; Monte Carlo Method; Market Volatility; Energy Economics; Community Solar; Monte Carlo Simulation; Photovoltaic Systems; Portfolio Theory; Uncertainty; Environmental Uncertainties; Financial Indicator; Financial Uncertainties; Physical Uncertainties; Identified Uncertainties; Probabilistic Model; Mean-variance Portfolio Theory; Probabilistic Valuation; Individual Rooftop Photovoltaic Systems; Financial Valuation; Probabilistic Portfolio-based Model; Investment; Monte Carlo Methods; Photovoltaic Cells; Risk Analysis; Tariffs; Resolution Lidar Data; Electricity Consumption; Pv Systems; Autoregressive Models; Potential Assessment; Generation Systems; Neural-networks; Energy; Buildings; Economic Theory; Electricity; Exports; Probabilistic Models; Risk
Adhikari, Pramodit; Mahmoud, Hussam; Xie, Aiwen; Simonen, Kathrina; Ellingwood, Bruce. (2020). Life-Cycle Cost and Carbon Footprint Analysis for Light-framed Residential Buildings Subjected to Tornado Hazard. Journal Of Building Engineering, 32.
Light-frame wood building construction dominates the single-family residential home market in the United States. Such buildings are susceptible to damage from extreme winds due to hurricanes in coastal areas and tornados in the Midwest. The consequences of extreme winds on the built environment and on social and economic institutions within the community can be severe and are likely to increase in the coming decades as a result of increases in urbanization and economic development and the potential impacts of changing climate in hazard prone areas. Current building practices provide minimum standards for occupant safety and health, including structural integrity, water and sanitation, lighting, ventilation, means of egress and fire protection. However, they generally do not consider building resilience, which includes robustness and an ability to recover following extreme natural hazard events. Nor do they address sustainability, the notion that building design, construction and rehabilitation should not adversely impact the environment. In this paper, we establish a generalized cost and carbon footprint life-cycle analysis methodology for examining the benefits of different building practices for residential light-frame wood construction subjected to tornado hazards. A multiobjective approach is used to reveal tradeoffs between resilient and sustainable practices for typical residential construction. We show that when the life cycle of a typical residence is considered, a balance between resilience, sustainability and cost might be achieved in design and rehabilitation of residential building construction for tornado hazards.
Performance; Risk; Fragility; Residential Buildings; Life-cycle Analysis; Resilience; Optimal Decisions; Sustainable Construction; Tornadoes
Su, Shu; Li, Xiaodong; Zhu, Chen; Lu, Yujie; Lee, Hyun Woo. (2021). Dynamic Life Cycle Assessment: A Review of Research for Temporal Variations in Life Cycle Assessment Studies. Environmental Engineering Science, 38(11), 1013 – 1026.
Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a comprehensive and important environmental management tool around the world. However, lacking temporal information has been a major challenge. In the past decade, dynamic LCA (DLCA), which incorporates temporal variations into assessment, has been an emerging research topic with increasing publications. A timely comprehensive review is needed to present current progress and discuss future directions. This article reviews 144 DLCA articles quantitatively and qualitatively. A bibliometric approach is adopted to conduct co-occurrence analysis and cluster analysis of DLCA studies. The research progress, approaches, and limitations of three temporal variation types (i.e., dynamic life cycle inventory, dynamic characterization factors, and dynamic weighting factors) in DLCA studies are systematically analyzed and discussed. It is concluded that: (1) dynamic inventory analysis is usually conducted by collecting time-differentiated data at each time step. Field monitoring, simulation, scenario analysis, and prediction based on historical data are common approaches. (2) Dynamic characterization studies primarily focus on two impact categories: global warming and toxicity. More studies are in need. (3) Various methods and indicators (i.e., dynamic pollution damage cost, temporal environmental policy targets, and discount rates) are used to solve the dynamic weighting issue, and they have specific limitations. Finally, three interesting topics are discussed: comparison between dynamic and static results, the large data amount issue, and the trend of tools development. This review offers a holistic view on temporal variations in DLCA studies and provides reference and directions for future dynamic studies.
Literature Reviews; Cluster Analysis (statistics); Global Warming; Environmental Management; Discount Prices; Emission Inventories; Dynamic Characterization; Dynamic Inventory Analysis; Dynamic Weighting; Environmental Impact; Life Cycle Assessment; Temporal Variation; Cluster Analysis; Life Cycle; 'current; Dynamic Inventory Analyse; Dynamic Lca; Environmental Management Tool; Inventory Analysis; Research Topics; Temporal Information; Dependent Climate Impact; Greenhouse-gas Emission; Biogenic Carbon; Assessment Framework; Fresh-water; Electricity-generation; Energy Efficiency; Wheat Production; Embodied Energy; Time
Burpee, Heather; McDade, Erin. (2014). Comparative Analysis of Hospital Energy Use: Pacific Northwest and Scandinavia. Health Environments Research & Design Journal (HERD) (Vendome Group LLC), 8(1), 20 – 44.
OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to establish the potential for significant energy reduction in hospitals in the United States by providing evidence of Scandinavian operational precedents with high Interior Environmental Quality (IEQ) and substantially lower energy profiles than comparable U.S. facilities. These facilities set important precedents for design teams seeking operational examples for achieving aggressive energy and interior environmental quality goals. This examination of operational hospitals is intended to offer hospital owners, designers, and building managers a strong case and concrete framework for strategies to achieve exceptionally high performing buildings. BACKGROUND: Energy efficient hospitals have the potential to significantly impact the U.S.'s overall energy profile, and key stakeholders in the hospital industry need specific, operationally grounded precedents in order to successfully implement informed energy reduction strategies. This study is an outgrowth of previous research evaluating high quality, low energy hospitals that serve as examples for new high performance hospital design, construction, and operation. Through extensive interviews, numerous site visits, the development of case studies, and data collection, this team has established thorough qualitative and quantitative analyses of several contemporary hospitals in Scandinavia and the Pacific Northwest. Many Scandinavian hospitals demonstrate a low energy profile, and when analyzed in comparison with U.S. hospitals, such Scandinavian precedents help define the framework required to make significant changes in the U.S. hospital building industry. METHODS: Eight hospitals, four Scandinavian and four Pacific Northwest, were quantitatively compared using the Environmental Protection Agency's Portfolio Manager, allowing researchers to answer specific questions about the impact of energy source and architectural and mechanical strategies on energy efficiency in operational hospitals. RESULTS: Specific architectural, mechanical, and plant systems make these Scandinavian hospitals more energy efficient than their Pacific Northwest counterparts. More importantly, synergistic systems integration allows for their significant reductions in energy consumption. CONCLUSIONS: This quantitative comparison of operational Scandinavian and Pacific Northwest hospitals resulted in compelling evidence of the potential for deep energy savings in the U.S., and allowed researchers to outline specific strategies for achieving such reductions.
Environmental Quality; Energy Consumption; Health Facility Design & Construction; Comparative Studies; Energy Consumption In Hospitals; Pacific Northwest; Scandinavia; Built Environment; Case Study; Design Process; Healthcare Facility Design; Hospital; Post Occupancy
Spencer, Benjamin; Lawler, Josh; Lowe, Celia; Thompson, Luanne; Hinckley, Tom; Kim, Soo-hyung; Bolton, Susan; Meschke, Scott; Olden, Julian D.; Voss, Joachim. (2017). Case Studies in Co-Benefits Approaches to Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation. Journal Of Environmental Planning & Management, 60(4), 647 – 667.
Attempts to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions or manage the effects of climate change traditionally focus on management or policy options that promote single outcomes (e.g., either benefiting ecosystems or human health and well-being). In contrast, co-benefits approaches to climate change mitigation and adaptation address climate change impacts on human and ecological health in tandem and on a variety of spatial and temporal scales. The article engages the concept of co-benefits through four case studies. The case studies emphasize co-benefits approaches that are accessible and tractable in countries with human populations that are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts. They illustrate the potential of co-benefits approaches and provide a platform for further discussion of several interdependent principles relevant to the implementation of co-benefits strategies. These principles include providing incentives across multiple scales and time frames, promoting long-term integrated impact assessment, and fostering multidimensional communication networks.
Greenhouse Gas Mitigation; Air Pollution Control; Climate Change; Environmental Health; Ecological Impact; Management; Ecological Health; Human Health; Impact Assessment; Incentives; Multidimensional Networks; Health; Impacts; Drought; Perspective; Strategies; Mangroves; Science; Risks; Ecosystems; Platform; Implementation; Networks; Social Welfare; Environmental Policy; Case Studies; Greenhouse Effect; Impact Tests; Communication Networks; Environmental Changes; Greenhouse Gases; Human Populations; Spatial Discrimination; Adaptation; Climate Effects; Mitigation; Environmental Impact; Health Care Policy
Baganz, Gösta; Proksch, Gundula; Kloas, Werner; Wolf Lorleberg; Baganz, Daniela; Staaks, Georg; Lohrberg, Frank. (2020). Site Resource Inventories – A Missing Link in the Circular City’s Information Flow. Advances In Geosciences, 54, 23-32.
A circular city builds upon the principles of circular economy, which key concepts of reduce, reuse, recycle, and recover lead to a coupling of resources: products and by-products of one production process become the input of another one, often in local vicinity. However, sources, types and available quantities of underutilised resources in cities are currently not well documented. Therefore, there is a missing link in the information flow of the circular city between potential users and site-specific data. To close this gap, this study introduces the concept of a site resource inventory in conjunction with a new information model that can manage the data needed for advancing the circular city. A core taxonomy of terms is established as the foundation for the information model: the circular economy is defined as a network of circular economy entities which are regarded as black boxes and connected by their material and energy inputs and outputs. This study proposes a site resource inventory, which is a collection of infrastructural and building-specific parameters that assess the suitability of urban sites for a specific circular economy entity. An information model is developed to manage the data that allows the entities to effectively organise the allocation and use of resources within the circular city and its material and energy flows. The application of this information model was demonstrated by comparing the demand and availability of required alternative resources (e.g. greywater) at a hypothetical site comprising a commercial aquaponic facility (synergistic coupling of fish and vegetables production) and a residential building. For the implementation of the information model a proposal is made which uses the publicly available geodata infrastructure of OpenStreetMap and adopts its tag system to operationalise the integration of circular economy data by introducing new tags. A site resource inventory has the potential to bring together information needs and it is thus intended to support companies when making their business location decisions or to support local authorities in the planning process.
Digital Mapping; Economics; By Products; Aquaponics; Economic Conditions; Fish; Spatial Data; Consumers; Food; Infrastructure; Energy Flow; Greywater; Information Flow; Biogas; Consumption; Residential Buildings; Taxonomy; Data; Resources; Sustainable Development; Urban Areas; Cities; Coupling