Sun, F., Whittington, J., Ning, S., Proksch, G., Shen, Q., & Dermisi, S. (2023). Economic resilience during COVID-19: the case of food retail businesses in Seattle, Washington. Frontiers in Built Environment, 9. https://doi.org/10.3389/fbuil.2023.1212244
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Abstract
The first year of COVID-19 tested the economic resilience of cities, calling into question the viability of density and the essential nature of certain types of services. This study examines built environment and socio-economic factors associated with the closure of customer-facing food businesses across urban areas of Seattle, Washington. The study covers 16 neighborhoods (44 census block groups), with two field audits of businesses included in cross-sectional studies conducted during the peak periods of the pandemic in 2020. Variables describing businesses and their built environments were selected and classified using regression tree methods, with relationships to business continuity estimated in a binomial regression model, using business type and neighborhood socio-demographic characteristics as controlled covariates. Results show that the economic impact of the pandemic was not evenly distributed across the built environment. Compared to grocery stores, the odds of a restaurant staying open during May and June were 24%, only improving 10% by the end of 2020. Density played a role in business closure, though this role differed over time. In May and June, food retail businesses were 82% less likely to remain open if located within a quarter-mile radius of the office-rich areas of the city, where pre-pandemic job density was greater than 95 per acre. In November and December, food retail businesses were 66% less likely to remain open if located in areas of residential density greater than 23.6 persons per acre. In contrast, median household income and percentage of non-Asian persons of color were positively and significantly associated with business continuity. Altogether, these findings provide more detailed and accurate profiles of food retail businesses and a more complete impression of the spatial heterogeneity of urban economic resilience during the pandemic, with implications for future urban planning and real estate development in the post-pandemic era.
Steven Bourassa is an H. Jon and Judith M. Runstad Endowed Professor and Chair in the Runstad Department of Real Estate, and is Director of the Washington Center for Real Estate Research. Professor Bourassa was quoted in a Washington State Standard story entitled “Rents in Washington show signs of stabilizing,” as an expert in the field. Read the article here.
Shang, L., Dermisi, S., Choe, Y., Lee, H. W., & Min, Y. (2023). Assessing Office Building Marketability before and after the Implementation of Energy Benchmarking and Disclosure Policies—Lessons Learned from Major U.S. Cities. Sustainability (Basel, Switzerland), 15(11), 8883–. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15118883
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Abstract
An increasing number of U.S. cities require commercial/office properties to publicly disclose their energy performance due to the adoption of energy benchmarking and disclosure policies. This level of transparency provides an additional in-depth assessment of a building’s performance beyond a sustainability certification (e.g., Energy Star, LEED) and may lead less energy-efficient buildings to invest in energy retrofits, therefore improving their marketability. However, the research is scarce on assessing the impact of such policies on office building marketability. This study tries to fill this gap by investigating the impact of energy benchmarking policies on the performance of office buildings in four major U.S. cities (New York; Washington, D.C.; San Francisco; and Chicago). We use interrupted time series analysis (ITSA), while accounting for sustainability certification, public policy adoption, and property real estate performance. The results revealed that in some cities, energy-efficient buildings generally perform better than less energy-efficient buildings after the policy implementation, especially if they are Class A. The real estate performances of energy-efficient buildings also exhibited continuously increasing trends after the policy implementation. However, due to potentially confounding factors, further analysis is required to conclude the policy impacts on energy-efficient buildings are more positive than those on less energy-efficient buildings.
Keywords
building energy benchmarking and disclosure policies; building energy efficiency; office buildings; time series modeling
Wang, Y., & Shen, Q. (2023). An economic analysis of incorporating new shared mobility into public transportation provision. Transport Policy, 141, 263–273. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2023.07.025
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Abstract
Transit agencies in the US have shown great interests in the possibility of incorporating on-demand shared mobility modes into their fixed-route transit services. However, the cost-effectiveness of on-demand modes has not been clearly demonstrated, and there lacks an effective method for transit agencies to compare the costs of different service provision options. This study develops an economic-theory-based framework that appropriately conceptualizes the total economic cost of incorporating on-demand modes into transit. Based on the theoretical framework, a simulation model is built to operationalize an approach for evaluating the cost-effectiveness of transit-supplementing, on-demand mobility services. We demonstrate the applicability of this approach using Via to Transit program in the Seattle region. By accounting for both the service provider's cost and the users' cost, we obtain a more complete and accurate measure for the cost advantages of the on-demand modes in this case in comparison to expanding fixed-route transit, where the total economic cost for the on-demand mode is 22% lower than the fixed route transit. The theoretical framework and the simulation model can support the decision-making of public transit agencies as they explore incorporating mobility on demand to supplement traditional transit.
Keywords
Public transit; On-demand shared mobility; Marginal cost; Generalized travel cost; Transportation simulation
Arthur Acolin & Rebecca J. Walter (2023). Mortgage Loan Costs: Magnitude and Drivers of Variation. Housing Policy Debate, DOI: 10.1080/10511482.2023.2236984
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Abstract
This article uses national data disclosed as part of the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) to examine variations in loan costs based on type of loan, borrower, purpose (purchase, improvement, or refinance), and neighborhood characteristics. Loan costs are generally higher for nonconventional conforming loans with higher levels of credit risks (loans with higher combined loan-to-value, higher debt-to-income ratios, and for investment properties). This implies that product and borrower risk impact loan costs. However, borrower characteristics such as income and race/ethnicity are also associated with differences in loan costs even after controlling for loan characteristics, location, and lender fixed effects. Total loan costs are higher both in dollar terms and as a share of the loan amount for Black borrowers and Hispanic borrowers, and total loan costs represent a higher share of the loan amount for lower income borrowers. These disparities are larger in neighborhoods with higher levels of lender concentration and implicit racial bias. These findings suggest that in addition to access to mortgages and interest rates, loan costs can represent a barrier for access to homeownership with a disparate impact for Black and Hispanic borrowers, which contributes to perpetuate the homeownership gap.
Keywords
Mortgage loan costs; homeownership; borrowing constraints; homeownership gap
Research Interests: Mortgage, risk, demographics, finance and investment
Abdel Aziz, A. M. (2023). Statistical Analysis and Representation Models of Working-Days Liquidated Damages. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 149(7). https://doi.org/10.1061/JCEMD4.COENG-13330
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Abstract
Contractors tend to challenge the enforceability of liquidated damages (LDs), claiming they are unreasonable, excessive, penalty statements, or concurrently caused. States customarily assert that the LD rates are a genuine reflection of the expenses expected to be suffered when a project gets delayed due to noncompletion. While there are common practices among the states for articulating LD specifications, which generally follow the Federal Code of Regulations, there are no published studies that assist states in comparing their LD rates to those of other states so that the LD rates might be defended. Further, there are no studies that offer models that would uncover the relationship between the LD rates and the contract sizes so that the LD rates might be justified. This work addresses such gaps in the body of knowledge (BOK) in LDs. With emphasis on the working-days (WD) LD rate schedules, the objectives of this work are to characterize the LD rate schedules across the states and to model a formula(s) that would represent the relationship between the WD LD rates and the contract amounts. The data set for the work represents the LD schedules in the standard specifications of all departments of transportation in the United States. Descriptive and cluster statistical analyses were used for the LD rate characterization. For model development, several linear and nonlinear regression models were employed. The results highlighted considerable LDs variability in the smaller contract sizes and exceptional LD rates stability in the larger sizes. Despite the economic differences among the states, it is found that the LD rate is, on average, 0.02 ¢/$ for projects $20 million or above. Below that, the rate increases between 0.03 ¢/$ and 0.18 ¢/$ until the contracts reach $750,000. LD rates tend to decrease sharply with the increase in contract sizes, forming an L or reverse J shape. This pattern proved complex, and only nonlinear regression with transformed variables successfully modeled it. Credible models were obtained after satisfying the least-squares regression assumptions. The work contributes to the BOK by adding a new statistical dimension to understanding LDs and developing regression model(s) that explain the relationships between the LD rates and the contract sizes. The work should help SHAs create, evaluate, and justify their LD rates.
Dermisi, S. (2023). Office Development. In R. Peiser & D. Hamilton (Eds.), Professional Real Estate Development: The ULI Guide to the Business. Urban Land Institute.
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Abstract
The office chapter, authored by Dr. Sofia Dermisi -Lyon and Wolff Endowed Professor in Real Estate and Professor of Urban Design & Planning, identifies ways the technological and structural sustainability boundaries are pushed and how the pandemic has shifted the office occupant expectations on health and well-being, while embracing alternative ways of working through flexibility and adaptability. Office case studies highlight creative ways of linking new with historic landmark structures, overcoming various development challenges, and integrating valuable features in a post-covid era. Additionally, the evolution and repositioning of retail due to the rise of e-commerce and its impact on brick-and-mortar stores provides insights on future trends. While consumer behavior trends, which accelerated during the pandemic, created the emergence of new types of industrial facilities.
Ottesen, Jeffrey L., & Migliaccio, Giovanni (2023). Use of Predictive Models for Labor-Productivity Loss in Settling Disputes. Journal of Legal Affairs and Dispute Resolution in Engineering and Construction, 15(1).
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Abstract
Given inherent difficulties in construction, optimizing labor efficiencies is paramount to project success. Research described in this article conducted demonstrates that an analysis of planned activities in a critical path methodology (CPM) schedule may be used to forecast future productivity inefficiencies. Specifically, this study relies on the concept of CPM schedule’s density, which is defined as the number of overlapping like-trade activities on any given workday. This metric is directly related to the required labor resources required to complete that work within the activities’ planned durations. Schedule density increases where more planned activities overlap with each other; for instance, occurrence of such increases is common when the schedule is accelerated. Regression models were derived using metrics drawn from CPM schedule updates’ activities and durations and compared to actual labor productivity experienced. Strong correlation findings support development of predictive models that quantify potential labor inefficiencies before they occur. However, the question remains as to the strength and applicability of predictive models in formal litigation. This paper presents findings of this research and discusses how such findings may be used to facilitate settlement in dispute resolution procedures.
Keywords
Lee, Sungmin, Lee, Chanam, Won Nam, Ji, Vernez Moudon, Anne, & Mendoza, Jason A. (2023). Street Environments and Crime around Low-income and Minority Schools: Adopting an Environmental Audit Tool to Assess Crime Prevention Through Environmental Design (CPTED). Landscape and Urban Planning, 232.
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Abstract
• CPTED principles have been applied in school neighborhood safety. • Multiple crime types had significant associations with CPTED principles. • The cleanliness of streets and visual quality of buildings can reduce crime. • Being adjacent to multi-family housing and bus stops can increase crime. • The findings add to the evidence supporting the effectiveness of CPTED initiatives. Crime prevention through environmental design (CPTED) suggests an association between micro-scale environmental conditions and crime, but little empirical research exists on the detailed street-level environmental features associated with crime near low-income and minority schools. This study focuses on the neighborhoods around 14 elementary schools serving lower income populations in Seattle, WA to assess if the distribution of crime incidences (2013–2017) is linked with the street-level environmental features that reflect CPTED principles. We used a total of 40 audit variables that were included in the four domains derived from the broken windows theory and CPTED principles: natural surveillance (e.g., number of windows, balconies, and a sense of surveillance), territoriality (e.g., crime watch signs, trees), image/maintenance (e.g., graffiti and a sense of maintenance/cleanness), and geographical juxtaposition (e.g., bus stops, presence of arterial). We found that multiple crime types had significant associations with CPTED components at the street level. Among the CPTED domains, two image/maintenance features (i.e., maintenance of streets and visual quality of buildings) and two geographical juxtaposition features (i.e., being adjacent to multi-family housing and bus stops) were consistently associated with both violent and property crime. The findings suggest that local efforts to improve maintenance of streets and visual quality of buildings and broader planning efforts to control specific land uses near schools are important to improve safety in marginalized neighborhoods near schools that tend to be more vulnerable to crime. Our research on micro-scale environmental determinants of crime can also serve as promising targets for CPTED research and initiatives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Keywords
CPTED; Crime; Environmental audit; Micro-scale environment of Crime; Street environments