El-Anwar, Omar; Chen, Lei. (2014). Maximizing the Computational Efficiency of Temporary Housing Decision Support Following Disasters. Journal Of Computing In Civil Engineering, 28(1), 113 – 123.
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Abstract
Postdisaster temporary housing has long been a challenging problem because of its interlinked socioeconomic, political, and financial dimensions. A significant need for automated decision support was obvious to address this problem. Previous research achieved considerable advancements in developing optimization models that can quantify and optimize the impacts of temporary housing decisions on the socioeconomic welfare of displaced families and total public expenditures on temporary housing as well as other objectives. However, the computational complexity of these models hindered its practical use and adoption by emergency planners. This article analyzes the computational efficiency of the current implementation of the most advanced socioeconomic formulation of the temporary housing problem, which uses integer programming. Moreover, it presents the development of a customized variant of the Hungarian algorithm that has a superior computational performance while maintaining the highest quality of solutions. An application example is presented to demonstrate the unique capabilities of the new algorithm in solving large-scale problems.
Keywords
Decision Support Systems; Emergency Management; Integer Programming; Computational Efficiency; Temporary Housing Decision Support Following Disasters; Financial Dimensions; Political Dimensions; Socioeconomic Dimensions; Socioeconomic Welfare; Emergency Planners; Socioeconomic Formulation; Hungarian Algorithm; Multiobjective Optimization; Maeviz-hazturk; Housing; Computation; Disasters; Temporary Structures; Temporary Housing; Optimization; Disaster Management
Jon, Ihnji; Huang, Shih-kai; Lindell, Michael K. (2018). Perceptions and Reactions to Tornado Warning Polygons: Would a Gradient Polygon Be Useful? International Journal Of Disaster Risk Reduction, 30, 132 – 144.
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Abstract
To better understand people's interpretations of National Weather Service's tornado warning polygons, 145 participants were shown 22 hypothetical scenarios in one of four displays-deterministic polygon, deterministic polygon + radar image, gradient polygon, and gradient polygon + radar image. Participants judged each polygon's numerical strike probability (p(s)) and reported the likelihood of taking seven different response actions. The deterministic polygon display produced p(s) that were highest at the polygon's centroid and declined in all directions from there. The deterministic polygon + radar display, the gradient polygon display, and the gradient polygon + radar display produced p(s) that were high at the polygon's centroid and also at its edge nearest the tornadic storm cell. Overall, p(s) values were negatively related to resuming normal activities, but positively correlated with expectations of resuming normal activities, seeking information from social sources, seeking shelter, and evacuating by car. These results replicate the finding that participants make more appropriate p(s) judgments when polygons are presented in their natural context of radar images than when the polygons are presented in isolation and that gradient displays appear to provide no appreciable benefit. The fact that p(s) judgments had moderately positive correlations with both sheltering (a generally appropriate response) and evacuation (a generally inappropriate response) provides experimental confirmation that people threatened by actual tornadoes are conflicted about which protective action to take.
Keywords
Protective Action; Uncertainty; Risk; Psychology; Casualties; Tornado Warning Polygons; Risk Perceptions; Protective Actions
Peers, Justin B.; Gregg, Christopher E.; Lindell, Michael K.; Pelletier, Denis; Romerio, Franco; Joyner, Andrew T. (2021). The Economic Effects of Volcanic Alerts-A Case Study of High-Threat US Volcanoes. Risk Analysis, 41(10).
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Abstract
A common concern about volcanic unrest is that the communication of information about increasing volcanic alert levels (VALs) to the public could cause serious social and economic impacts even if an eruption does not occur. To test this statement, this study examined housing prices and business patterns from 1974-2016 in volcanic regions with very-high threat designations from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)-Long Valley Caldera (LVC), CA (caldera); Mount St. Helens (MSH), Washington (stratovolcano); and Kilauea, HawaiModified Letter Turned Commai (shield volcano). To compare economic trends in nonvolcanic regions that are economically dependent on tourism, Steamboat Springs, CO, served as a control as it is a ski-tourism community much like Mammoth Lakes in LVC. Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models predicted that housing prices were negatively affected by VALs at LVC from 1982-1983 and 1991-1997. While VALs associated with unrest and eruptions included in this study both had short-term indirect effects on housing prices and business indicators (e.g., number of establishments, employment, and salary), these notifications were not strong predictors of long-term economic trends. Our findings suggest that these indirect effects result from both eruptions with higher level VALs and from unrest involving lower-level VAL notifications that communicate a change in volcanic activity but do not indicate that an eruption is imminent or underway. This provides evidence concerning a systemic issue in disaster resilience. While disaster relief is provided by the U.S. federal government for direct impacts associated with disaster events that result in presidential major disaster declarations, there is limited or no assistance for indirect effects to businesses and homeowners that may follow volcanic unrest with no resulting direct physical losses. The fact that periods of volcanic unrest preceding eruption are often protracted in comparison to precursory periods for other hazardous events (e.g., earthquakes, hurricanes, flooding) makes the issue of indirect effects particularly important in regions susceptible to volcanic activity.
Keywords
Direct Impacts; Econometric Analysis; Indirect Impacts; Risk Assessment; Volcano Alert Levels; Earthquakes; Hurricanes; Threats; Housing Costs; Business Indicators; Disasters; Disaster Relief; Declarations; Volcanoes; Resilience; Tourism; Economics; Flooding; Trends; Calderas; Geological Surveys; Housing Prices; Eruptions; Precursors; Indirect Effects; Business; Disaster Management; Economic Trends; Autoregressive Models; Floods; Employment Status; Prices; Federal Government; Housing; Eruption; Economic Impact; Seismic Activity; Volcanic Activity; Earthquake Prediction; Lakes; Communication; United States--us
The Population Health Initiative has announced the award of eight Tier 2 pilot grants, which are intended to encourage the development of new interdisciplinary collaborations among investigators – and with community-based partners – for projects that address critical challenges to population health. One of the funded projects, “Assessing National Public Housing Authority Disaster Preparedness, Response and Recovery of Place-based Subsidized Housing Units,” includes Rebecca Walter, Windermere Endowed Chair and Associate Professor, Runstad Department of Real Estate. Walter serves as a…
Research Interests: Urban resilience, disaster risk reduction, climate change, community engagement.
Our Washington Pacific Coast is vulnerable to tsunami waves. These waves will wash over coastal communities that do not have ready access to high ground. The Institute for Hazards Mitigation Planning and Research has been working with these at-risk communities at the direction or the State Emergency Management Division to identify locations for vertical tsunami refuges. Currently, the Institute is applying an evacuation model developed by the USGS to corroborated locations suggested by residents. These suggested locations were the product of Institute research conduct over the past 8 years and which lead to the construction of structures in Tokeland and Westport, Washington.
Michael K. Lindell has conducted research on emergency preparedness and response for a wide range of natural and technological hazards over the past 40 years. He has conducted research or provided technical services to 40 different organizations in the public and private sectors. He has provided technical assistance on radiological emergency preparedness for the International Atomic Energy Agency, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the Department of Energy, and nuclear utilities and also worked on hazardous materials emergency preparedness with State Emergency Response Commissions, Local Emergency Planning Committees, and chemical companies. He has served eight times as a consultant to National Research Council committees examining environmental hazards, and has been a member of three National Research Council committees—Disasters Research in Social Sciences, Assessing Vulnerabilities Related to the Nation’s Chemical Infrastructure, and Inherently Safer Chemical Processes: The Use of Methyl Isocyanate (MIC) at Bayer CropScience. In addition, he has reviewed research proposals for 20 different foreign, federal, and state agencies as well as performed manuscript reviews for over 75 different journals in the social and environmental sciences and engineering. He has written extensively on emergency management and is the author of 80 technical reports, 125 journal articles and book chapters, and nine books.
The Institute for Hazards Mitigation Planning and Research is an interdisciplinary academic institute housed in the College of Built Environments. The Institute is dedicated to exploring ways to enhance Community Resilience, through integration of hazards mitigation principles across all aspects of community development. Its mission is to build a resource center that will enhance risk reduction and resilience activities through research and analysis of hazards, policies related to mitigation, and outreach to the community.
The Institute for Hazards Mitigation Planning and Research is dedicated to integrating hazards mitigation principles into a wide range of crisis, disaster, and risk management opportunities. The Institute provides expertise in disaster preparedness, response, and recovery with a special emphasis on mitigation and planning in the promotion of community sustainability. It is interdisciplinary in focus and structure, and the capabilities of the Institute are enhanced by its close relationship with other academic and research organizations. This incorporates collaboration with several other disciplines within the University of Washington.
The Institute’s faculty and researchers are involved in numerous innovative and path-breaking research initiatives with the ultimate goal of enhancing community capacity to anticipate, respond to, cope with, and recover from natural and man-made hazard events.
Monica Huang is a research engineer for the Carbon Leadership Forum at the University of Washington with expertise in environmental life cycle assessment (LCA). Recent research topics include the environmental impact of housing, optimizing tall wood structures, and developing data on the environmental impact of earthquake damage. She was also the lead author for a guide on the use of LCA in design and construction practice. Past research experience includes diverse topics such as astronomy, electronic waste, and sea level rise. As a graduate student, she developed the Port of Seattle’s first study on the impacts of sea level rise on seaport structures.
Sofia Dermisi holds a joint appointment between the Department of Real Estate and the Department of Urban Design and Planning. She is the Victor L. Lyon and Alvin J. Wolff Endowed Professor in Real Estate. She is also the Chair of the Interdisciplinary Group for Real Estate (IGRE), which focuses in cross-discipline collaboration in teaching and research. In her joint appointment role she focuses on maintaining a formal two-way connection between the two departments on courses, student interests and research. This role is especially important among the MUP students who pursue the Real Estate specialization or have interests in real estate courses, for which she serves as their advisor.
Dermisi has an interdisciplinary approach in her teaching and research as real estate is one of those fields someone can have significant flexibility in focusing on different uses (e.g. office, residential, retail etc.), scales (local, national, international etc.) and aspects (e.g. market analysis, development, investment etc.). Real estate is also typically linked with other fields such as social and economic, construction among many others, which help us understand and possibly predict in the short and long-run expansion and contraction patterns of the real estate markets. Her area of research has always focused on understanding the evolution of office markets and the effect of internal and external shocks in downtown areas. Office markets have evolved significantly through time and understanding how real estate markets react to deferent economic conditions helps predict future market shifts in a highly cyclical industry. The adoption of sustainable practices by office buildings is another aspect of her research especially in regards to existing buildings, when the capital investment tends to be more significant than a new construction. The last but not least aspect of her research focuses on the effect of disasters on office and hotel markets.
Dermisi has received various grants for her research and received multiple awards highlighting her contribution to the field. She also serves as the elected Program Chair of the American Real Estate Society conference in 2018 and the Vice President of the Society. She will be the President of the American Real Estate Society in 2019-2020, and only the second woman to be elevated by members in such a position, but the first non-US born.
Dermisi, holds a Diploma in Planning and Regional Development Engineering from the University of Thessaly-Greece (1998) and a Master and Doctorate in Design Studies (1999 and 2002 respectively) from Harvard University.