While community lifeline service providers and local emergency managers must maintain coordinated response and recovery plans, their timelines may not match expectations of local consumers of lifeline services. Indeed, it is quite likely consumers have unrealistic expectations about lifeline restoration, which could explain current inadequate levels of disaster preparedness. This hypothesized expectation gap has received little attention because engineering research typically addresses providers’ capacities, whereas disaster research addresses household and business preparedness. Our project will address this neglected issue by assessing consumers’ (households, business owners/managers, nonprofit managers) expectations about lifeline system performance, and comparing them to lifeline provider capacity in a post-hazard event scenario (following a Cascadia subduction zone earthquake of 9.0 magnitude or greater) in two communities—Kirkland and Shoreline, WA (likely to experience most shaking in this scenario).
Our research will assess the role of the expectations gap in influencing consumers’ and providers’ preparedness as well as response. First, we estimate the gap between consumers and providers expectations using an earthquake scenario in two case study communities. We posit that low consumer preparedness for lifeline disruption is in part a function of low expectations that lengthy disruption will occur. Next, we test the effect of providing consumers and providers with information about this gap. Our proposed sharing estimates of lifeline restoration times should change these beliefs if our assumption about this specific basis for low preparedness is correct and if our audiences attend to, process, and act upon this information. In our longitudinal research, consumers (households, businesses, and nonprofits) and lifeline providers will complete two questionnaires each. Besides lifeline provider surveys, we will collect information about lifeline providers’ capabilities and work with them to estimate restoration times using an expert elicitation-based estimation framework. We will address the following research questions:
- What do consumers think is the likely level of critical lifeline disruption from an earthquake and the timeline for restoration?
- What are consumers’ current levels of preparedness for lifeline interruption?
- What do lifeline providers and an independent engineering expert think are providers’ capabilities to maintain and restore lifeline services?
- How do consumers’ expectations compare with providers’ capabilities (expectations gap)?
- How will this study’s feedback about the expectations gap affect consumers’ and providers’ lifeline resilience expectations, as well as their mitigation and preparedness intentions?
Verrelli, Brian C.; Alberti, Marina; Des Roches, Simone; Harris, Nyeema C.; Hendry, Andrew P.; Johnson, Marc T. J.; Savage, Amy M.; Charmantier, Anne; Gotanda, Kiyoko M.; Govaert, Lynn; Miles, Lindsay S.; Rivkin, L. Ruth; Winchell, Kristin M.; Brans, Kristien I.; Correa, Cristian; Diamond, Sarah E.; Fitzhugh, Ben; Grimm, Nancy B.; Hughes, Sara; Marzluff, John M.; Munshi-south, Jason; Rojas, Carolina; Santangelo, James S.; Schell, Christopher J.; Schweitzer, Jennifer A.; Szulkin, Marta; Urban, Mark C.; Zhou, Yuyu; Ziter, Carly. (2022). A Global Horizon Scan for Urban Evolutionary Ecology. Trends In Ecology & Evolution, 37(11), 1006-1019.
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Abstract
Research on the evolutionary ecology of urban areas reveals how human-induced evolutionary changes affect biodiversity and essential ecosystem services. In a rapidly urbanizing world imposing many selective pressures, a time-sensitive goal is to identify the emergent issues and research priorities that affect the ecology and evolution of species within cities. Here, we report the results of a horizon scan of research questions in urban evolutionary ecology submitted by 100 interdisciplinary scholars. We identified 30 top questions organized into six themes that highlight priorities for future research. These research questions will require methodological advances and interdisciplinary collaborations, with continued revision as the field of urban evolutionary ecology expands with the rapid growth of cities.
Keywords
Urban Ecology; Sustainability; Cities & Towns; Ecosystem Dynamics; Urban Growth; Ecosystem Services; Urban Research; Climate Change; Sociopolitical; Urban Evolution; Urbanization; Human Health; Biodiversity; Adaptation; Challenges; Dynamics; Management; Invasion; Science
Thompson, Cynthia L.; Alberti, Marina; Barve, Sahas; Battistuzzi, Fabia U.; Drake, Jeana L.; Goncalves, Guilherme Casas; Govaert, Lynn; Partridge, Charlyn; Yang, Ya. (2022). Back to the Future: Reintegrating Biology to Understand How Past Eco-evolutionary Change Can Predict Future Outcomes. Integrative And Comparative Biology, 61(6), 2218-2232.
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Abstract
During the last few decades, biologists have made remarkable progress in understanding the fundamental processes that shape life. But despite the unprecedented level of knowledge now available, large gaps still remain in our understanding of the complex interplay of eco-evolutionary mechanisms across scales of life. Rapidly changing environments on Earth provide a pressing need to understand the potential implications of eco-evolutionary dynamics, which can be achieved by improving existing eco-evolutionary models and fostering convergence among the sub-fields of biology. We propose a new, data-driven approach that harnesses our knowledge of the functioning of biological systems to expand current conceptual frameworks and develop corresponding models that can more accurately represent and predict future eco-evolutionary outcomes. We suggest a roadmap toward achieving this goal. This long-term vision will move biology in a direction that can wield these predictive models for scientific applications that benefit humanity and increase the resilience of natural biological systems. We identify short, medium, and long-term key objectives to connect our current state of knowledge to this long-term vision, iteratively progressing across three stages: (1) utilizing knowledge of biological systems to better inform eco-evolutionary models, (2) generating models with more accurate predictions, and (3) applying predictive models to benefit the biosphere. Within each stage, we outline avenues of investigation and scientific applications related to the timescales over which evolution occurs, the parameter space of eco-evolutionary processes, and the dynamic interactions between these mechanisms. The ability to accurately model, monitor, and anticipate eco-evolutionary changes would be transformational to humanity's interaction with the global environment, providing novel tools to benefit human health, protect the natural world, and manage our planet's biosphere.
Keywords
Rapid Evolution; Ecological Interactions; Niche Construction; Climate-change; Phenotype; Community; Selection; Fitness; Consequences; Variability
Alberti, Marina; Marzluff, John; Hunt, Victoria M. (2017). Urban Driven Phenotypic Changes: Empirical Observations and Theoretical Implications for Eco-Evolutionary Feedback. Philosophical Transactions Of The Royal Society Of London. Series B, Biological Sciences, 372(1712).
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Abstract
Emerging evidence that cities drive micro-evolution raises the question of whether rapid urbanization of Earth might impact ecosystems by causing systemic changes in functional traits that regulate urban ecosystems' productivity and stability. Intraspecific trait variation-variation in organisms' morphological, physiological or behavioural characteristics stemming from genetic variability and phenotypic plasticity-has significant implications for ecological functions such as nutrient cycling and primary productivity. While it is well established that changes in ecological conditions can drive evolutionary change in species' traits that, in turn, can alter ecosystem function, an understanding of the reciprocal and simultaneous processes associated with such interactions is only beginning to emerge. In urban settings, the potential for rapid trait change may be exacerbated by multiple selection pressures operating simultaneously. This paper reviews evidence on mechanisms linking urban development patterns to rapid phenotypic changes, and differentiates phenotypic changes for which there is evidence of micro-evolution versus phenotypic changes which may represent plasticity. Studying how humans mediate phenotypic trait changes through urbanization could shed light on fundamental concepts in ecological and evolutionary theory. It can also contribute to our understanding of eco-evolutionary feedback and provide insights for maintaining ecosystem function over the long term. This article is part of the themed issue 'Human influences on evolution, and the ecological and societal consequences'.
Keywords
Peromyscus-leucopus Populations; Rapid Evolution; Urbanization; Biodiversity; Adaptation; Dynamics; Birds; Environment; Mechanisms; Morphology; Eco-evolution; Ecosystem Function; Urban Ecology; Ecosystems; Plastic Properties; Urban Environments; Evolution; Phenotypic Plasticity; Feedback; Urban Development; Biological Evolution; Plasticity; Environmental Impact; Nutrient Cycles; Environmental Changes; Productivity; Human Influences; Ecological Effects; Urban Areas; Genetic Variability; Physical Characteristics
Gomez-Cunya, Luis-Angel; Fardhosseini, Mohammad Sadra; Lee, Hyun Woo; Choi, Kunhee. (2020). Analyzing Investments in Flood Protection Structures: A Real Options Approach. International Journal Of Disaster Risk Reduction, 43.
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Abstract
The soaring number of natural hazards in recent years due largely to climate change has resulted in an even higher level of investment in flood protection structures. However, such investments tend to be made in the aftermath of disasters. Very little is known about the proactive planning of flood protection investments that account for uncertainties associated with flooding events. Understanding the uncertainties such as when to invest on these structures to achieve the most optimal cost-saving amount is outmost important. This study fills this large knowledge gap by developing an investment decision-making assessment framework that determines an optimal timing of flood protection investment options. It combines real options with a net present value analysis to examine managerial flexibility in various investment timing options. Historical data that contain information about river water discharges were leveraged as a random variable in the modeling framework because it may help investors better understand the probability of extreme events, and particularly, flooding uncertainties. A lattice model was then used to investigate potential alternatives of investment timing and to evaluate the benefits of delaying investments in each case. The efficacy of the proposed framework was demonstrated by an illustrative example of flood protection investment. The framework will be used to help better inform decision makers.
Keywords
Decision-making; Flood Protection; Real Options Theory; Investment Decision-making
Chen, Chen; Wang, Haizhong; Lindell, Michael K.; Jung, Meen Chel; Siam, M. R. K. (2022). Tsunami Preparedness And Resilience: Evacuation Logistics And Time Estimations. Transportation Research Part D-transport And Environment, 109.
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Abstract
Extensive research has studied the near-field tsunami threat in the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ), but little research has examined the ability to evacuate the inundation zone before the first tsunami wave arrives. To address this gap, this study provides empirical evidence about people's expectations about hazard onset and evacuation logistics when a tsunami threatens. We surveyed households in five CSZ communities to assess residents' expected first wave arrival time, as well as their expectations about evacuation destinations, route choices, preparation times, travel times, and clearance times. Heatmaps are used to summarize residents' evacuation destinations and route choices, and probabilistic functions are used to model evacuation distances and time estimates. The results suggest that respondents have similar patterns of time estimates, but a few plan to evacuate within the inundation zone, and some plan to evacuate on routes that were congested in a previous event and end their evacuations at destinations within the inundation zone.
Keywords
Disaster; Tsunami Evacuation; Time Estimate; Cascadia Subduction Zone; Behavior; Decision-making; American-samoa; Earthquake; Oregon; Washington; Wellington; Responses; Hazard; Model
Frank, Adam; Kleidon, Axel; Alberti, Marina. (2017). Earth as a Hybrid Planet: The Anthropocene in an Evolutionary Astrobiological Context. Anthropocene, 19, 13 – 21.
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Abstract
We develop a classification scheme for the evolutionary state of planets based on the non-equilibrium thermodynamics of their coupled systems, including the presence of a biosphere and the possibility of what we call an agency-dominated biosphere (i.e. an energy-intensive technological species). The premise is that Earth's entry into the Anthropocene represents what might be, from an astrobiological perspective, a predictable planetary transition. We explore this problem from the perspective of the solar system and exoplanet studies. Our classification discriminates planets by the forms of free energy generation driven from stellar forcing. We then explore how timescales for global evolutionary processes on Earth might be synchronized with ecological transformations driven by increases in energy harvesting and its consequences ( which might have reached a turning point with global urbanization). Finally, we describe quantitatively the classification scheme based on the maintenance of chemical disequilibrium in the past and current Earth systems and on other worlds in the solar system. In this perspective, the beginning of the Anthropocene can be seen as the onset of the hybridization of the planet-a transitional stage from one class of planetary systems interaction to another. For Earth, this stage occurs as the effects of human civilization yield not just new evolutionary pressures, but new selected directions for novel planetary ecosystem functions and their capacity to generate disequilibrium and enhance planetary dissipation.
Keywords
Thermodynamic Disequilibrium; Extrasolar Planets; Climate-change; Life Detection; Habitability; Dynamics; System; Biospheres; Future; Energy; Climate Change; Astrobiology; Coupled Earth Systems; Biosphere; Thermodynamics; Dissipation
Hou, Jeffrey. (2020). Governing Urban Gardens for Resilient Cities: Examining the ‘Garden City Initiative’ in Taipei. Urban Studies (Sage Publications, Ltd.), 57(7), 1398 – 1416.
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Abstract
With rising concerns for food security and climate adaptation, urban gardening and urban agriculture have emerged as a rising agenda for urban resilience around the world. In East Asia, a variety of initiatives have emerged in recent years with different levels of institutional support. Focusing on Taipei, where a vibrant urban agriculture movement has been unleashed in recent years, this article examines the ongoing outcomes of the city's new 'Garden City Initiative', which supports the establishment of urban gardens including community gardens, rooftop gardens and school gardens. Based on interviews and participant observations during the initial period of advocacy, planning and implementation between 2014 and 2017, this study examines the background of the programme, the involvement of governmental and non-governmental actors and the programme's ongoing implementation. Based on the findings, the article further reflects upon their implications for the practices of urban governance in the face of contemporary environmental, political and social challenges. The case of Taipei suggests a model in which policy formation and implementation may require opportunistic actions involving a variety of actors and organisations in both institutions and the civil society. Rather than dramatic changes or instant institutional realignment, the effort may require strategic adaptation of the existing bureaucratic structure, while mobilising its strengths and resources. In addition, despite the critical role of civil society organisations, the Taipei case also illustrates a considerable public-sector investment, distinct from the predominant model of neoliberal governance that has been associated with urban gardening programmes elsewhere.
Keywords
Urban Gardening; Urban Planning; Sustainability; Urban Agriculture; Local Government; Taipei (taiwan); 地方政府; 城市农业; 城市田园; 政策; 治理; 环境/可持续性; 规划; Environment/sustainability; Governance; Planning; Policy; Urban Gardens; Community Gardens; Food; Agriculture; Space; Inclusion; Systems; Environment; Realignment; Intervention; Social Change; Food Security; Civil Society; Initiatives; Gardens & Gardening; Policy Making; Neoliberalism; Resilience; Urban Farming; Gardening; Advocacy; Implementation; Roofs; Cities; Adaptation; Urban Areas; Gardens; Institutional Aspects; Bureaucracy; Policy Implementation; Environmental Policy; Climate Change Adaptation; Taipei Taiwan; Taiwan
Seto, Karen C.; Golden, Jay S.; Alberti, Marina; Turner, B. L., Ii. (2017). Sustainability in an Urbanizing Planet. Proceedings Of The National Academy Of Sciences Of The United States Of America, 114(34), 8935 – 8938.
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Keywords
Sustainability; Urbanization; Nature; Environment
Huang, M.; Simonen, K. (2020). Comparative Environmental Analysis of Seismic Damage in Buildings. Journal Of Structural Engineering, 146(2).
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Abstract
In studying the environmental impacts of buildings, earthquake hazards are rarely considered, but their environmental impacts can be significant. This case study paper demonstrates how the US Federal Emergency Management Agency's Performance Assessment Calculation Tool (PACT) can be used to analyze the environmental impacts of buildings using probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. PACT was used to evaluate 10 case study buildings that varied by five types of lateral systems and two risk categories. For each building, PACT generated 1,000 realizations at five earthquake intensities. The resulting environmental impacts were analyzed according to their distribution, median, and average values, and the differences among building component types, risk categories, and lateral force-resisting systems were explored. In this study, building components that were categorized under Exterior Enclosures, Interior Finishes, and Heating, Ventilation, and Air-Conditioning (HVAC) produced notably higher environmental impacts in response to seismic damage, and their vulnerability to displacement- or acceleration-induced damage could be attributed to the characteristics of the lateral systems. Although these observations are notable, they should not be taken as universally applicable to all buildings. Instead, these findings exemplify how the environmental impact results from PACT can be analyzed and interpreted to address both the seismic and environmental aspects of building design. (C) 2019 American Society of Civil Engineers.
Keywords
Impact