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Assessing the Expectations Gap – Impact on Critical Infrastructure Service Providers’ and Consumers’ Preparedness, and Response

While community lifeline service providers and local emergency managers must maintain coordinated response and recovery plans, their timelines may not match expectations of local consumers of lifeline services. Indeed, it is quite likely consumers have unrealistic expectations about lifeline restoration, which could explain current inadequate levels of disaster preparedness. This hypothesized expectation gap has received little attention because engineering research typically addresses providers’ capacities, whereas disaster research addresses household and business preparedness. Our project will address this neglected issue by assessing consumers’ (households, business owners/managers, nonprofit managers) expectations about lifeline system performance, and comparing them to lifeline provider capacity in a post-hazard event scenario (following a Cascadia subduction zone earthquake of 9.0 magnitude or greater) in two communities—Kirkland and Shoreline, WA (likely to experience most shaking in this scenario).

Our research will assess the role of the expectations gap in influencing consumers’ and providers’ preparedness as well as response. First, we estimate the gap between consumers and providers expectations using an earthquake scenario in two case study communities. We posit that low consumer preparedness for lifeline disruption is in part a function of low expectations that lengthy disruption will occur. Next, we test the effect of providing consumers and providers with information about this gap. Our proposed sharing estimates of lifeline restoration times should change these beliefs if our assumption about this specific basis for low preparedness is correct and if our audiences attend to, process, and act upon this information. In our longitudinal research, consumers (households, businesses, and nonprofits) and lifeline providers will complete two questionnaires each. Besides lifeline provider surveys, we will collect information about lifeline providers’ capabilities and work with them to estimate restoration times using an expert elicitation-based estimation framework. We will address the following research questions:

  1. What do consumers think is the likely level of critical lifeline disruption from an earthquake and the timeline for restoration?
  2. What are consumers’ current levels of preparedness for lifeline interruption?
  3. What do lifeline providers and an independent engineering expert think are providers’ capabilities to maintain and restore lifeline services?
  4. How do consumers’ expectations compare with providers’ capabilities (expectations gap)?
  5. How will this study’s feedback about the expectations gap affect consumers’ and providers’ lifeline resilience expectations, as well as their mitigation and preparedness intentions?

A Global Horizon Scan for Urban Evolutionary Ecology

Verrelli, Brian C.; Alberti, Marina; Des Roches, Simone; Harris, Nyeema C.; Hendry, Andrew P.; Johnson, Marc T. J.; Savage, Amy M.; Charmantier, Anne; Gotanda, Kiyoko M.; Govaert, Lynn; Miles, Lindsay S.; Rivkin, L. Ruth; Winchell, Kristin M.; Brans, Kristien I.; Correa, Cristian; Diamond, Sarah E.; Fitzhugh, Ben; Grimm, Nancy B.; Hughes, Sara; Marzluff, John M.; Munshi-south, Jason; Rojas, Carolina; Santangelo, James S.; Schell, Christopher J.; Schweitzer, Jennifer A.; Szulkin, Marta; Urban, Mark C.; Zhou, Yuyu; Ziter, Carly. (2022). A Global Horizon Scan for Urban Evolutionary Ecology. Trends In Ecology & Evolution, 37(11), 1006-1019.

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Abstract

Research on the evolutionary ecology of urban areas reveals how human-induced evolutionary changes affect biodiversity and essential ecosystem services. In a rapidly urbanizing world imposing many selective pressures, a time-sensitive goal is to identify the emergent issues and research priorities that affect the ecology and evolution of species within cities. Here, we report the results of a horizon scan of research questions in urban evolutionary ecology submitted by 100 interdisciplinary scholars. We identified 30 top questions organized into six themes that highlight priorities for future research. These research questions will require methodological advances and interdisciplinary collaborations, with continued revision as the field of urban evolutionary ecology expands with the rapid growth of cities.

Keywords

Urban Ecology; Sustainability; Cities & Towns; Ecosystem Dynamics; Urban Growth; Ecosystem Services; Urban Research; Climate Change; Sociopolitical; Urban Evolution; Urbanization; Human Health; Biodiversity; Adaptation; Challenges; Dynamics; Management; Invasion; Science

Back to the Future: Reintegrating Biology to Understand How Past Eco-evolutionary Change Can Predict Future Outcomes

Thompson, Cynthia L.; Alberti, Marina; Barve, Sahas; Battistuzzi, Fabia U.; Drake, Jeana L.; Goncalves, Guilherme Casas; Govaert, Lynn; Partridge, Charlyn; Yang, Ya. (2022). Back to the Future: Reintegrating Biology to Understand How Past Eco-evolutionary Change Can Predict Future Outcomes. Integrative And Comparative Biology, 61(6), 2218-2232.

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Abstract

During the last few decades, biologists have made remarkable progress in understanding the fundamental processes that shape life. But despite the unprecedented level of knowledge now available, large gaps still remain in our understanding of the complex interplay of eco-evolutionary mechanisms across scales of life. Rapidly changing environments on Earth provide a pressing need to understand the potential implications of eco-evolutionary dynamics, which can be achieved by improving existing eco-evolutionary models and fostering convergence among the sub-fields of biology. We propose a new, data-driven approach that harnesses our knowledge of the functioning of biological systems to expand current conceptual frameworks and develop corresponding models that can more accurately represent and predict future eco-evolutionary outcomes. We suggest a roadmap toward achieving this goal. This long-term vision will move biology in a direction that can wield these predictive models for scientific applications that benefit humanity and increase the resilience of natural biological systems. We identify short, medium, and long-term key objectives to connect our current state of knowledge to this long-term vision, iteratively progressing across three stages: (1) utilizing knowledge of biological systems to better inform eco-evolutionary models, (2) generating models with more accurate predictions, and (3) applying predictive models to benefit the biosphere. Within each stage, we outline avenues of investigation and scientific applications related to the timescales over which evolution occurs, the parameter space of eco-evolutionary processes, and the dynamic interactions between these mechanisms. The ability to accurately model, monitor, and anticipate eco-evolutionary changes would be transformational to humanity's interaction with the global environment, providing novel tools to benefit human health, protect the natural world, and manage our planet's biosphere.

Keywords

Rapid Evolution; Ecological Interactions; Niche Construction; Climate-change; Phenotype; Community; Selection; Fitness; Consequences; Variability

Advancing Optimization of Hybrid Housing Development Plans Following Disasters: Achieving Computational Robustness, Effectiveness, and Efficiency

El-Anwar, Omar. (2013). Advancing Optimization of Hybrid Housing Development Plans Following Disasters: Achieving Computational Robustness, Effectiveness, and Efficiency. Journal Of Computing In Civil Engineering, 27(4), 358 – 369.

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Abstract

Following disasters, displaced families often face significant challenges to move from temporary to permanent housing. The Federal Emergency Management Agency is exploring alternative housing pilot programs to evaluate the possibility of providing quickly deployable, affordable housing that can serve both as temporary and permanent housing. Because of the complexities and costs associated with these programs, it is impractical to assume that accelerated permanent housing can fully replace the need for traditional temporary housing, especially in cases of large-scale displacements. A novel methodology was developed to evaluate the socioeconomic benefits of candidate configurations of hybrid housing plans, which incorporates both temporary and accelerated permanent housing developments. This paper presents the computational implementation and performance analysis of this novel methodology to offer a practical decision-support tool to emergency planners. To this end, genetic algorithms and integer-programming optimization models are formulated, and their performances are analyzed based on their effectiveness, efficiency, and robustness. In lieu of developing the integer-programming model, the paper also presents a linear formulation that overcomes the need to use logical operations to model fixed and variable cost components for developing housing projects. Results show the superior performance of integer programming, whereas genetic algorithms offer higher modeling flexibility.

Keywords

Decision Support Systems; Emergency Management; Genetic Algorithms; Integer Programming; Advancing Optimization; Hybrid Housing Development Plans Following Disasters; Achieving Computational Robustness; Achieving Computational Effectiveness; Achieving Computational Efficiency; Federal Emergency Management Agency; Housing Pilot Programs; Temporary Housing; Permanent Housing Developments; Decision-support Tool; Emergency Planners; Integer-programming Optimization Models; Logical Operations; Optimization; Disasters; Housing; Social Factors; Economic Factors; Computation; Hybrid Methods; Disaster Recovery; Accelerated Permanent Housing; Socioeconomic Welfare; Robustness; Effectiveness; Computational Efficiency; 0

Immediate Behavioral Response to the June 17, 2013 Flash Floods in Uttarakhand, North India

Lindell, Michael K.; Arlikatti, Sudha; Huang, Shih-kai. (2019). Immediate Behavioral Response to the June 17, 2013 Flash Floods in Uttarakhand, North India. International Journal Of Disaster Risk Reduction, 34, 129 – 146.

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Abstract

The 2013 Uttarakhand flash flood was such a surprise for those at risk that the predominant source of information for their risk was environmental cues and, secondarily, peer warnings rather than official warnings. Of those who received warnings, few received information other than the identity of the flood threat. A survey of 316 survivors found that most people's first response was to immediately evacuate but some stayed to receive additional information, confirm their warnings, or engage in evacuation preparations. Unfortunately, engaging in these milling behaviors necessarily delayed their final evacuations. Mediation analysis revealed that psychological reactions mediated the relationship between information sources and behavioral responses. Further analyses revealed that immediate evacuation and evacuation delay were both predicted best by information search and positive affect, but correlation analyses indicated that a number of other models were also plausible. Final evacuation was best predicted by immediate evacuation and, to a significantly lesser extent, household together. Overall, results suggest that the Protective Action Decision Model (PADM) should be considered a useful framework for examining household responses to flash floods in developing countries like India. It supports the conclusion that a household's first warning source is a function of two distinct detection and dissemination systems within a community-an official system and an informal system. However, it fails to capture what pre-impact emergency preparedness entails for rapid onset events in a developing country context. Further research is needed to determine the relative importance of situational and cultural characteristics in producing these observed differences.

Keywords

Risk Perception; Mental Models; Warnings; Evacuation; Disaster; Tsunami; Communication; Earthquake; Beliefs; Hazard; Flash Flood; Warning; Psychological Reactions; India

Urban Landscape Heterogeneity Influences the Relationship Between Tree Canopy and Land Surface Temperature

Jung, Meen Chel; Dyson, Karen; Alberti, Marina. (2021). Urban Landscape Heterogeneity Influences the Relationship Between Tree Canopy and Land Surface Temperature. Urban Forestry & Urban Greening, 57.

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Abstract

Urban trees play a key role in alleviating elevated summertime land surface temperatures in cities. However, urban landscape influences the capacity of urban trees to mitigate higher temperatures. We propose that both developed land characteristics and tree cover should be considered to accurately estimate the mitigation effects of canopy cover. We subclassified original land cover based on the canopy cover ratio to capture the within-land cover heterogeneity. We selected two coastal cities with different summertime climatic conditions: Seattle, Washington, USA, and Baltimore, Maryland, USA. We used Landsat-based grid cells (30 m x 30 m) as our spatial analytical unit, with corresponding land surface temperature, canopy area, canopy compactness, population size, and National Land Cover Database (NLCD)-based land cover group. We first used grouped boxplots, Kruskal-Wallis H tests, and post-hoc multiple comparison tests to detect the distribution of land surface temperatures by the land cover group. We then introduced statistical models to test the group effects on the relationship between land surface temperatures and canopy cover variables. We found: (1) land surface temperature increases with level of development, (2) land surface temperature decreases with canopy cover level, (3) the magnitude of the mitigation effects from canopy area differs based on development level and current canopy cover, (4) the differing efficacies of canopy area in decreasing land surface temperature follows a nonlinear threshold relationship, and (5) compactness of canopy cover was not significant in reducing the land surface temperature. These findings suggest the importance of considering heterogeneous canopy cover within developed land cover classes in urban heat island research. Tree planting strategies need to consider the nonlinear relationships between tree canopy cover and land surface temperature alongside environmental equity concerns.

Keywords

Extreme Heat Events; Climate-change; Cover Data; Island; Pattern; Cities; Vegetation; Mortality; Phoenix; Impact; Canopy Cover; Environmental Equity; Land Cover; Land Surface Temperature; Mitigation Effect; Area; Canopy; Cells; Climatic Factors; Databases; Heat Island; Landscapes; Multiple Comparison Test; Planting; Population Size; Research; Statistical Models; Summer; Surface Temperature; Testing; Trees; Urban Forestry; Maryland

Eco-Evolutionary Dynamics in an Urbanizing Planet

Alberti, Marina. (2015). Eco-Evolutionary Dynamics in an Urbanizing Planet. Trends In Ecology & Evolution, 30(2), 114 – 126.

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Abstract

A great challenge for ecology in the coming decades is to understand the role humans play in eco-evolutionary dynamics. If, as emerging evidence shows, rapid evolutionary change affects ecosystem functioning and stability, current rapid environmental change and its evolutionary effects might have significant implications for ecological and human wellbeing on a relatively short time scale. Humans are major selective agents with potential for unprecedented evolutionary consequences for Earth's ecosystems, especially as cities expand rapidly. In this review, I identify emerging hypotheses on how urbanization drives eco-evolutionary dynamics. Studying how human-driven micro-evolutionary changes interact with ecological processes offers us the chance to advance our understanding of eco-evolutionary feedbacks and will provide new insights for maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem function over the long term.

Keywords

Biological Evolution; Urbanization; Climate Change; Ecosystems; Well-being; Co-evolution; Eco-evolutionary Dynamics; Ecosystem Function; Urban Ecosystems; Ecological Consequences; Phenotypic Plasticity; Rapid Evolution; Regime Shifts; Elevated Co2; Biodiversity; Selection; Community; Patterns

A Roadmap for Urban Evolutionary Ecology

Rivkin, L. Ruth; Santangelo, James S.; Alberti, Marina; Aronson, Myla F. J.; De Keyzer, Charlotte W.; Diamond, Sarah E.; Fortin, Marie-josee; Frazee, Lauren J.; Gorton, Amanda J.; Hendry, Andrew P.; Liu, Yang; Losos, Jonathan B.; Macivor, J. Scott; Martin, Ryan A.; Mcdonnell, Mark J.; Miles, Lindsay S.; Munshi-south, Jason; Ness, Robert W.; Newman, Amy E. M.; Stothart, Mason R.; Theodorou, Panagiotis; Thompson, Ken A.; Verrelli, Brian C.; Whitehead, Andrew; Winchell, Kristin M.; Johnson, Marc T. J. (2019). A Roadmap for Urban Evolutionary Ecology. Evolutionary Applications, 12(3), 384 – 398.

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Abstract

Urban ecosystems are rapidly expanding throughout the world, but how urban growth affects the evolutionary ecology of species living in urban areas remains largely unknown. Urban ecology has advanced our understanding of how the development of cities and towns change environmental conditions and alter ecological processes and patterns. However, despite decades of research in urban ecology, the extent to which urbanization influences evolutionary and eco-evolutionary change has received little attention. The nascent field of urban evolutionary ecology seeks to understand how urbanization affects the evolution of populations, and how those evolutionary changes in turn influence the ecological dynamics of populations, communities, and ecosystems. Following a brief history of this emerging field, this Perspective article provides a research agenda and roadmap for future research aimed at advancing our understanding of the interplay between ecology and evolution of urban-dwelling organisms. We identify six key questions that, if addressed, would significantly increase our understanding of how urbanization influences evolutionary processes. These questions consider how urbanization affects nonadaptive evolution, natural selection, and convergent evolution, in addition to the role of urban environmental heterogeneity on species evolution, and the roles of phenotypic plasticity versus adaptation on species' abundance in cities. Our final question examines the impact of urbanization on evolutionary diversification. For each of these six questions, we suggest avenues for future research that will help advance the field of urban evolutionary ecology. Lastly, we highlight the importance of integrating urban evolutionary ecology into urban planning, conservation practice, pest management, and public engagement.

Keywords

Urban Ecology (biology); Climate Change; Urban Growth; Species Diversity; Urbanization; Citizen Science; Community Engagement; Eco-evolutionary Feedback; Gene Flow; Landscape Genetics; Urban Evolution; Urban Socioecology; Mouse Peromyscus-leucopus; Rapid Evolution; Population Genomics; Selection; Habitat; Differentiation; Framework; Environments; Biodiversity; Eco-evolutionary Feedback

Integrating Solutions to Adapt Cities for Climate Change

Lin, Brenda B.; Ossola, Alessandro; Alberti, Marina; Andersson, Erik; Bai, Xuemei; Dobbs, Cynnamon; Elmqvist, Thomas; Evans, Karl L.; Frantzeskaki, Niki; Fuller, Richard A.; Gaston, Kevin J.; Haase, Dagmar; Jim, Chi Yung; Konijnendijk, Cecil; Nagendra, Harini; Niemela, Jari; Mcphearson, Timon; Moomaw, William R.; Parnell, Susan; Pataki, Diane; Ripple, William J.; Tan, Puay Yok. (2021). Integrating Solutions to Adapt Cities for Climate Change. Lancet Planetary Health, 5(7), E479 – E486.

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Abstract

Record climate extremes are reducing urban liveability, compounding inequality, and threatening infrastructure. Adaptation measures that integrate technological, nature-based, and social solutions can provide multiple co-benefits to address complex socioecological issues in cities while increasing resilience to potential impacts. However, there remain many challenges to developing and implementing integrated solutions. In this Viewpoint, we consider the value of integrating across the three solution sets, the challenges and potential enablers for integrating solution sets, and present examples of challenges and adopted solutions in three cities with different urban contexts and climates (Freiburg, Germany; Durban, South Africa; and Singapore). We conclude with a discussion of research directions and provide a road map to identify the actions that enable successful implementation of integrated climate solutions. We highlight the need for more systematic research that targets enabling environments for integration; achieving integrated solutions in different contexts to avoid maladaptation; simultaneously improving liveability, sustainability, and equality; and replicating via transfer and scale-up of local solutions. Cities in systematically disadvantaged countries (sometimes referred to as the Global South) are central to future urban development and must be prioritised. Helping decision makers and communities understand the potential opportunities associated with integrated solutions for climate change will encourage urgent and deliberate strides towards adapting cities to the dynamic climate reality.

Keywords

Urban; Resilience; Energy; Water; Transformations; Sustainability; Opportunities; Challenges; Mitigation; Knowledge

Periurbanization and the Politics of Development-as-City-Building in China

Abramson, Daniel Benjamin. (2016). Periurbanization and the Politics of Development-as-City-Building in China. Cities, 53, 156 – 162.

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Abstract

China stands out among recently urbanized societies for the planned physicality of its rural-urban transformation the extensive marshaling of labor, capital and material resources to remake its cities and to transform rural land and communities into new, formal urban space. In China, the rural and the urban are distinguished in deeply dichotomous institutions of government, and peri-urbanization, defined as the disorderly spaces, processes and conditions of becoming urban, would appear to be a temporary stage of transition between an old rural socio-spatial order to a new urban socio-spatial order. The actual contested politics of development as-urbanization suggests otherwise, however, both on a national scale and on a community scale. The definition of development itself is at stake, and emerges unpredictably from peri-urban experience. A view of periurbanization as a process of socio-ecological adaptation is better suited to societies that have evolved in long settled, densely populated anthropogenic agrarian landscapes. (C) 2015 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Keywords

Urban-growth; Chengdu; Urbanization; Adaptation; Resilience; Alternative Development; Socialist New Countryside Construction; New Rural Reconstruction