Alberti, Marina; Marzluff, John; Hunt, Victoria M. (2017). Urban Driven Phenotypic Changes: Empirical Observations and Theoretical Implications for Eco-Evolutionary Feedback. Philosophical Transactions Of The Royal Society Of London. Series B, Biological Sciences, 372(1712).
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Abstract
Emerging evidence that cities drive micro-evolution raises the question of whether rapid urbanization of Earth might impact ecosystems by causing systemic changes in functional traits that regulate urban ecosystems' productivity and stability. Intraspecific trait variation-variation in organisms' morphological, physiological or behavioural characteristics stemming from genetic variability and phenotypic plasticity-has significant implications for ecological functions such as nutrient cycling and primary productivity. While it is well established that changes in ecological conditions can drive evolutionary change in species' traits that, in turn, can alter ecosystem function, an understanding of the reciprocal and simultaneous processes associated with such interactions is only beginning to emerge. In urban settings, the potential for rapid trait change may be exacerbated by multiple selection pressures operating simultaneously. This paper reviews evidence on mechanisms linking urban development patterns to rapid phenotypic changes, and differentiates phenotypic changes for which there is evidence of micro-evolution versus phenotypic changes which may represent plasticity. Studying how humans mediate phenotypic trait changes through urbanization could shed light on fundamental concepts in ecological and evolutionary theory. It can also contribute to our understanding of eco-evolutionary feedback and provide insights for maintaining ecosystem function over the long term. This article is part of the themed issue 'Human influences on evolution, and the ecological and societal consequences'.
Keywords
Peromyscus-leucopus Populations; Rapid Evolution; Urbanization; Biodiversity; Adaptation; Dynamics; Birds; Environment; Mechanisms; Morphology; Eco-evolution; Ecosystem Function; Urban Ecology; Ecosystems; Plastic Properties; Urban Environments; Evolution; Phenotypic Plasticity; Feedback; Urban Development; Biological Evolution; Plasticity; Environmental Impact; Nutrient Cycles; Environmental Changes; Productivity; Human Influences; Ecological Effects; Urban Areas; Genetic Variability; Physical Characteristics
Gomez-Cunya, Luis-Angel; Fardhosseini, Mohammad Sadra; Lee, Hyun Woo; Choi, Kunhee. (2020). Analyzing Investments in Flood Protection Structures: A Real Options Approach. International Journal Of Disaster Risk Reduction, 43.
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Abstract
The soaring number of natural hazards in recent years due largely to climate change has resulted in an even higher level of investment in flood protection structures. However, such investments tend to be made in the aftermath of disasters. Very little is known about the proactive planning of flood protection investments that account for uncertainties associated with flooding events. Understanding the uncertainties such as when to invest on these structures to achieve the most optimal cost-saving amount is outmost important. This study fills this large knowledge gap by developing an investment decision-making assessment framework that determines an optimal timing of flood protection investment options. It combines real options with a net present value analysis to examine managerial flexibility in various investment timing options. Historical data that contain information about river water discharges were leveraged as a random variable in the modeling framework because it may help investors better understand the probability of extreme events, and particularly, flooding uncertainties. A lattice model was then used to investigate potential alternatives of investment timing and to evaluate the benefits of delaying investments in each case. The efficacy of the proposed framework was demonstrated by an illustrative example of flood protection investment. The framework will be used to help better inform decision makers.
Keywords
Decision-making; Flood Protection; Real Options Theory; Investment Decision-making
Chen, Chen; Wang, Haizhong; Lindell, Michael K.; Jung, Meen Chel; Siam, M. R. K. (2022). Tsunami Preparedness And Resilience: Evacuation Logistics And Time Estimations. Transportation Research Part D-transport And Environment, 109.
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Abstract
Extensive research has studied the near-field tsunami threat in the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ), but little research has examined the ability to evacuate the inundation zone before the first tsunami wave arrives. To address this gap, this study provides empirical evidence about people's expectations about hazard onset and evacuation logistics when a tsunami threatens. We surveyed households in five CSZ communities to assess residents' expected first wave arrival time, as well as their expectations about evacuation destinations, route choices, preparation times, travel times, and clearance times. Heatmaps are used to summarize residents' evacuation destinations and route choices, and probabilistic functions are used to model evacuation distances and time estimates. The results suggest that respondents have similar patterns of time estimates, but a few plan to evacuate within the inundation zone, and some plan to evacuate on routes that were congested in a previous event and end their evacuations at destinations within the inundation zone.
Keywords
Disaster; Tsunami Evacuation; Time Estimate; Cascadia Subduction Zone; Behavior; Decision-making; American-samoa; Earthquake; Oregon; Washington; Wellington; Responses; Hazard; Model
Frank, Adam; Kleidon, Axel; Alberti, Marina. (2017). Earth as a Hybrid Planet: The Anthropocene in an Evolutionary Astrobiological Context. Anthropocene, 19, 13 – 21.
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Abstract
We develop a classification scheme for the evolutionary state of planets based on the non-equilibrium thermodynamics of their coupled systems, including the presence of a biosphere and the possibility of what we call an agency-dominated biosphere (i.e. an energy-intensive technological species). The premise is that Earth's entry into the Anthropocene represents what might be, from an astrobiological perspective, a predictable planetary transition. We explore this problem from the perspective of the solar system and exoplanet studies. Our classification discriminates planets by the forms of free energy generation driven from stellar forcing. We then explore how timescales for global evolutionary processes on Earth might be synchronized with ecological transformations driven by increases in energy harvesting and its consequences ( which might have reached a turning point with global urbanization). Finally, we describe quantitatively the classification scheme based on the maintenance of chemical disequilibrium in the past and current Earth systems and on other worlds in the solar system. In this perspective, the beginning of the Anthropocene can be seen as the onset of the hybridization of the planet-a transitional stage from one class of planetary systems interaction to another. For Earth, this stage occurs as the effects of human civilization yield not just new evolutionary pressures, but new selected directions for novel planetary ecosystem functions and their capacity to generate disequilibrium and enhance planetary dissipation.
Keywords
Thermodynamic Disequilibrium; Extrasolar Planets; Climate-change; Life Detection; Habitability; Dynamics; System; Biospheres; Future; Energy; Climate Change; Astrobiology; Coupled Earth Systems; Biosphere; Thermodynamics; Dissipation
Hou, Jeffrey. (2020). Governing Urban Gardens for Resilient Cities: Examining the ‘Garden City Initiative’ in Taipei. Urban Studies (Sage Publications, Ltd.), 57(7), 1398 – 1416.
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Abstract
With rising concerns for food security and climate adaptation, urban gardening and urban agriculture have emerged as a rising agenda for urban resilience around the world. In East Asia, a variety of initiatives have emerged in recent years with different levels of institutional support. Focusing on Taipei, where a vibrant urban agriculture movement has been unleashed in recent years, this article examines the ongoing outcomes of the city's new 'Garden City Initiative', which supports the establishment of urban gardens including community gardens, rooftop gardens and school gardens. Based on interviews and participant observations during the initial period of advocacy, planning and implementation between 2014 and 2017, this study examines the background of the programme, the involvement of governmental and non-governmental actors and the programme's ongoing implementation. Based on the findings, the article further reflects upon their implications for the practices of urban governance in the face of contemporary environmental, political and social challenges. The case of Taipei suggests a model in which policy formation and implementation may require opportunistic actions involving a variety of actors and organisations in both institutions and the civil society. Rather than dramatic changes or instant institutional realignment, the effort may require strategic adaptation of the existing bureaucratic structure, while mobilising its strengths and resources. In addition, despite the critical role of civil society organisations, the Taipei case also illustrates a considerable public-sector investment, distinct from the predominant model of neoliberal governance that has been associated with urban gardening programmes elsewhere.
Keywords
Urban Gardening; Urban Planning; Sustainability; Urban Agriculture; Local Government; Taipei (taiwan); 地方政府; 城市农业; 城市田园; 政策; 治理; 环境/可持续性; 规划; Environment/sustainability; Governance; Planning; Policy; Urban Gardens; Community Gardens; Food; Agriculture; Space; Inclusion; Systems; Environment; Realignment; Intervention; Social Change; Food Security; Civil Society; Initiatives; Gardens & Gardening; Policy Making; Neoliberalism; Resilience; Urban Farming; Gardening; Advocacy; Implementation; Roofs; Cities; Adaptation; Urban Areas; Gardens; Institutional Aspects; Bureaucracy; Policy Implementation; Environmental Policy; Climate Change Adaptation; Taipei Taiwan; Taiwan
Seto, Karen C.; Golden, Jay S.; Alberti, Marina; Turner, B. L., Ii. (2017). Sustainability in an Urbanizing Planet. Proceedings Of The National Academy Of Sciences Of The United States Of America, 114(34), 8935 – 8938.
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Keywords
Sustainability; Urbanization; Nature; Environment
Huang, M.; Simonen, K. (2020). Comparative Environmental Analysis of Seismic Damage in Buildings. Journal Of Structural Engineering, 146(2).
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Abstract
In studying the environmental impacts of buildings, earthquake hazards are rarely considered, but their environmental impacts can be significant. This case study paper demonstrates how the US Federal Emergency Management Agency's Performance Assessment Calculation Tool (PACT) can be used to analyze the environmental impacts of buildings using probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. PACT was used to evaluate 10 case study buildings that varied by five types of lateral systems and two risk categories. For each building, PACT generated 1,000 realizations at five earthquake intensities. The resulting environmental impacts were analyzed according to their distribution, median, and average values, and the differences among building component types, risk categories, and lateral force-resisting systems were explored. In this study, building components that were categorized under Exterior Enclosures, Interior Finishes, and Heating, Ventilation, and Air-Conditioning (HVAC) produced notably higher environmental impacts in response to seismic damage, and their vulnerability to displacement- or acceleration-induced damage could be attributed to the characteristics of the lateral systems. Although these observations are notable, they should not be taken as universally applicable to all buildings. Instead, these findings exemplify how the environmental impact results from PACT can be analyzed and interpreted to address both the seismic and environmental aspects of building design. (C) 2019 American Society of Civil Engineers.
Keywords
Impact
Doyle, Emma E. H.; Mcclure, John; Potter, Sally H.; Becker, Julia S.; Johnston, David M.; Lindell, Michael K.; Johal, Sarbjit; Fraser, Stuart A.; Coomer, Maureen A. (2018). Motivations to Prepare After the 2013 Cook Strait Earthquake, N.Z. International Journal Of Disaster Risk Reduction, 31, 637 – 649.
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Abstract
We investigated responses to the 2013 Cook Strait earthquake sequence, New Zealand. This included two foreshocks (M5.7 and M5.8) and a mainshock doublet pair: M6.5 Cook Strait (CS) earthquake on 21st July and M6.6 Lake Grassmere (LG) earthquake on Friday 16th August. We examined relationships between preparedness, experience and beliefs during the earthquakes, as well as concern and subsequent preparedness actions. Results indicate that earthquake characteristics (e.g., time, location) influence the types of preparedness actions. While there was a reduction in new actions from the first mainshock doublet earthquake (CS) to the second (LG), there were a large number of participants who reviewed or revisited their prior actions, related to their beliefs about impacts, in a form of problem-focused targeted action. Females took more actions than did males, and had a higher rate of immediate aftershock concern. For all participants, concern was greater after the CS earthquake than after the full earthquake sequence, supporting the findings of McClure et al. (2016) that there is a limited window after an event to maximise the opportunity for effective preparedness initiatives. Findings additionally suggest that such post-earthquake preparedness initiatives should consider the impacts that elicited the highest rate of concern in an event, and should tailor messages towards them. While this earthquake sequence resulted in low levels of impact and damage, it presents interesting findings regarding how disruption (in lieu of major damage) influences earthquake preparedness actions, which is particularly important to understand in highly active regions often exposed to smaller impact events.
Keywords
Seismic Hazard Adjustments; Risk Communication; Decision-making; Natural Hazards; Unrealistic Optimism; Different Regions; Volcanic Crisis; Perception; Disaster; Behavior; Earthquakes; Preparedness; Beliefs; Concern; Actions; Gender
Kou, Huaiyun; Chalana, Manish; Zhou, Jian. (2020). Diverse Approaches to the Preservation of Built Vernacular Heritage: Case Study of Post-Disaster Reconstruction of the Xijie Historic District in Dujiangyan City, China. Journal Of Architectural Conservation, 26(1), 71 – 86.
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Abstract
Preservation of the built vernacular heritage contributes to maintaining a 'sense of place' and cultural diversity; yet, it is often ignored in preservation practices that favour high styled architectures and monumental sites. In China, although the understanding of the value of vernacular expression has shown some progress, technical and methodological efforts are still necessary to address the diversity and complexity of vernacular heritage. In this paper, the Xijie Historic District in Dujiangyan City in China provides an example for the preservation of the built vernacular heritage in the context of neighbourhood revitalization during a post-earthquake reconstruction project. Five types of intervention are examined in this paper, including the repair and restoration of the monuments, restoration of historic buildings, rehabilitation of traditional houses, contextual design of new buildings, and demolition to provide public space and facilities. In particular, the measures implemented to meet the residents' needs while maintaining the diversity of the built vernacular heritage are inspected. This study concludes with three recommendations: the classification of vernacular environments and employment of diverse measures to each type; the adaptation of the vernacular environment to meet residents' expectations and aspirations; and recognition of the development and reasonable control of the changes.
Keywords
Historic Districts; Preservation Of Historic Buildings; Cultural Pluralism; Preservation Of Cultural Property; Preservation Of Monuments; Preservation Of Architecture; Housing Rehabilitation; Wenchuan Earthquake, China, 2008; China; Built Vernacular Heritage; Community; Diversity; Historic District; Historic Preservation
Jon, Ihnji; Huang, Shih-kai; Lindell, Michael K. (2018). Perceptions and Reactions to Tornado Warning Polygons: Would a Gradient Polygon Be Useful? International Journal Of Disaster Risk Reduction, 30, 132 – 144.
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Abstract
To better understand people's interpretations of National Weather Service's tornado warning polygons, 145 participants were shown 22 hypothetical scenarios in one of four displays-deterministic polygon, deterministic polygon + radar image, gradient polygon, and gradient polygon + radar image. Participants judged each polygon's numerical strike probability (p(s)) and reported the likelihood of taking seven different response actions. The deterministic polygon display produced p(s) that were highest at the polygon's centroid and declined in all directions from there. The deterministic polygon + radar display, the gradient polygon display, and the gradient polygon + radar display produced p(s) that were high at the polygon's centroid and also at its edge nearest the tornadic storm cell. Overall, p(s) values were negatively related to resuming normal activities, but positively correlated with expectations of resuming normal activities, seeking information from social sources, seeking shelter, and evacuating by car. These results replicate the finding that participants make more appropriate p(s) judgments when polygons are presented in their natural context of radar images than when the polygons are presented in isolation and that gradient displays appear to provide no appreciable benefit. The fact that p(s) judgments had moderately positive correlations with both sheltering (a generally appropriate response) and evacuation (a generally inappropriate response) provides experimental confirmation that people threatened by actual tornadoes are conflicted about which protective action to take.
Keywords
Protective Action; Uncertainty; Risk; Psychology; Casualties; Tornado Warning Polygons; Risk Perceptions; Protective Actions