Resilience Archives - Page 5 of 8

Multi-Hazard Perceptions at Long Valley Caldera, California, USA

Peers, Justin B.; Lindell, Michael K.; Gregg, Christopher E.; Reeves, Ashleigh K.; Joyner, Andrew T.; Johnston, David M. (2021). Multi-Hazard Perceptions at Long Valley Caldera, California, USA. International Journal Of Disaster Risk Reduction, 52.

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Abstract

Caldera systems such as Long Valley Caldera, California; Taupo, New Zealand; and Campi Flegrei, Italy, experience centuries to millennia without eruption, but have the potential for large eruptions. This raises questions about how local residents' behavioral responses to these low-probability high-consequence events differ from their responses to events, such as wildfires and earthquakes, that have higher probabilities. To examine this issue, a multi-hazard mail survey of 229 households explored perceptions of-and responses to-volcano, earthquake and wildfire hazards in the Long Valley Volcanic Region. Response efficacy was the only significant predictor of emergency preparedness, which suggests that hazard managers can increase household emergency preparedness by emphasizing this attribute of protective actions. In addition to response efficacy, expected personal consequences, hazard intrusiveness, and affective responses were all significantly related to information seeking. This indicates that hazard managers can also increase households' information seeking about local hazards and appropriate protective actions by communicating the certainty and severity of hazard impacts (thus increasing expected personal consequences) and that they communicate this information repeatedly (thus increasing hazard intrusiveness) to produce significant emotional involvement (thus increasing affective response).

Keywords

Households Expected Responses; Risk Information-seeking; Volcanic Risk; Earthquake; Model; Adjustment; Mitigation; Communication; Preparedness; Predictors; Volcano Hazard Perception; Earthquake Hazard Perception; Wildfire Hazard Perception; Emergency Preparedness; Information Seeking

Visitor Center Design Research Based on Resilience Theory

Ren Hong; Wang Peng; Cai Weiguang; Li Dandan; Du Yongjie; Sun Junqiao; Abramson, Daniel. (2016). Visitor Center Design Research Based on Resilience Theory. Open House International, 41(3), 5 – 11.

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Abstract

Visitor center plays an important role in the normal operation and sustainable development of scenic spots, especially as a portal image of its management. This paper presents resilience theory for visitor centers to identify some common issues in designing visitor centers in China scenic spots, including the lack of function, loss of architectural characteristics, and difficultly in adapting to changes in the number of visitors with periodic variations. The framework of resilience theory was set from four dimensions, namely, resilience and match in the composition of ontology function, the extended function, integration of buildings into the surrounding environment, and alternative construction technologies and materials. This theory was explained and analyzed with the application of the theory in practice in combination with the design of Mount Hua visitor center. Results showed that resilience theory yields good application effect.

Keywords

Resilience Theory; Visitor Center; Design Research; Function Space

The Complexity of Urban Eco-Evolutionary Dynamics

Alberti, Marina; Palkovacs, Eric P.; Des Roches, Simone; De Meester, Luc; Brans, Kristien, I; Govaert, Lynn; Grimm, Nancy B.; Harris, Nyeema C.; Hendry, Andrew P.; Schell, Christopher J.; Szulkin, Marta; Munshi-south, Jason; Urban, Mark C.; Verrelli, Brian C. (2020). The Complexity of Urban Eco-Evolutionary Dynamics. Bioscience, 70(9), 772 – 793.

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Abstract

Urbanization is changing Earth's ecosystems by altering the interactions and feedbacks between the fundamental ecological and evolutionary processes that maintain life. Humans in cities alter the eco-evolutionary play by simultaneously changing both the actors and the stage on which the eco-evolutionary play takes place. Urbanization modifies land surfaces, microclimates, habitat connectivity, ecological networks, food webs, species diversity, and species composition. These environmental changes can lead to changes in phenotypic, genetic, and cultural makeup of wild populations that have important consequences for ecosystem function and the essential services that nature provides to human society, such as nutrient cycling, pollination, seed dispersal, food production, and water and air purification. Understanding and monitoring urbanization-induced evolutionary changes is important to inform strategies to achieve sustainability. In the present article, we propose that understanding these dynamics requires rigorous characterization of urbanizing regions as rapidly evolving, tightly coupled human-natural systems. We explore how the emergent properties of urbanization affect eco-evolutionary dynamics across space and time. We identify five key urban drivers of change-habitat modification, connectivity, heterogeneity, novel disturbances, and biotic interactions-and highlight the direct consequences of urbanization-driven eco-evolutionary change for nature's contributions to people. Then, we explore five emerging complexities-landscape complexity, urban discontinuities, socio-ecological heterogeneity, cross-scale interactions, legacies and time lags-that need to be tackled in future research. We propose that the evolving metacommunity concept provides a powerful framework to study urban eco-evolutionary dynamics.

Keywords

Habitat Modification; Seed Dispersal; Water Purification; Species Diversity; Human Behavior; Ecosystem Services; Nutrient Cycles; Cross-scale Interactions; Ecological Consequences; Contemporary Evolution; Gradient Analysis; Trophic Dynamics; Land-cover; Community; Biodiversity; Adaptation; Urban Ecology; Eco-evolutionary Dynamics; Coupled Human-natural Systems; Metacommunities; Ecology; Urbanization; Evolution; Water Treatment; Environmental Monitoring; Species Composition; Environmental Changes; Play; Food Production; Air Purification; Sustainability; Dynamic Tests; Air Monitoring; Urban Areas; Food Webs; Heterogeneity; Food Chains; Pollination; Dynamics; Complexity; Dispersal; Microclimate

Triggering a Climate Change Dominated Anthropocene: Is it Common Among Exocivilizations

Savitch, Ethan; Frank, Adam; Carroll-Nellenback, Jonathan; Haqq-Misra, Jacob; Kleidon, Axel; Alberti, Marina. (2021). Triggering a Climate Change Dominated Anthropocene: Is it Common Among Exocivilizations? Astronomical Journal, 162(5).

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Abstract

We seek to model the coupled evolution of a civilization and its host planet through the era when energy harvesting by the civilization drives the planet into new and adverse climate states. In this way, we ask if triggering Anthropocenes of the kind humanity is experiencing might be a generic feature of planet-civilization evolution. This question has direct consequences for both the study of astrobiology and the sustainability of human civilization. Furthermore, if Anthropocenes prove fatal for some civilizations then they can be considered as one form of a Great Filter and are therefore relevant to discussions of the Fermi Paradox. In this study, we focus on the effects of energy harvesting via combustion and vary the planet's initial chemistry and orbital radius. We find that in this context, the most influential parameter dictating a civilization's fate is their host planet's climate sensitivity, which quantifies how global temperatures change as CO2 is added to the atmosphere. Furthermore, this is in itself a function of the planet's atmospheric CO2 level, so planets with low levels of CO2 will have high climate sensitivities and high probabilities of triggering climate change. Using simulations of the coupled nonlinear model combined with semi-analytic treatments, we find that most planets in our initial parameter space experience diminished growth due to climate effects, an event we call a climate-dominated Anthropocene.

Keywords

Habitable Planets; Complex Life; Evolution; Earth

Global Urban Signatures of Phenotypic Change in Animal and Plant Populations

Alberti, Marina; Correa, Cristian; Marzluff, John M.; Hendry, Andrew P.; Palkovacs, Eric P.; Gotanda, Kiyoko M.; Hunt, Victoria M.; Apgar, Travis M.; Zhou, Yuyu. (2017). Global Urban Signatures of Phenotypic Change in Animal and Plant Populations. Proceedings Of The National Academy Of Sciences Of The United States Of America, 114(34), 8951 – 8956.

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Abstract

Humans challenge the phenotypic, genetic, and cultural makeup of species by affecting the fitness landscapes on which they evolve. Recent studies show that cities might play a major role in contemporary evolution by accelerating phenotypic changes in wildlife, including animals, plants, fungi, and other organisms. Many studies of ecoevolutionary change have focused on anthropogenic drivers, but none of these studies has specifically examined the role that urbanization plays in ecoevolution or explicitly examined its mechanisms. This paper presents evidence on the mechanisms linking urban development patterns to rapid evolutionary changes for species that play important functional roles in communities and ecosystems. Through a metaanalysis of experimental and observational studies reporting more than 1,600 phenotypic changes in species across multiple regions, we ask whether we can discriminate an urban signature of phenotypic change beyond the established natural baselines and other anthropogenic signals. We then assess the relative impact of five types of urban disturbances including habitat modifications, biotic interactions, habitat heterogeneity, novel disturbances, and social interactions. Our study shows a clear urban signal; rates of phenotypic change are greater in urbanizing systems compared with natural and nonurban anthropogenic systems. By explicitly linking urban development to traits that affect ecosystem function, we can map potential ecoevolutionary implications of emerging patterns of urban agglomerations and uncover insights for maintaining key ecosystem functions upon which the sustainability of human wellbeing depends.

Keywords

Phenotypes; Plant Populations; Animal Populations; Biological Evolution; Ecosystems; Urbanization; Sustainability; Anthropocene; Ecoevolution; Ecosystem Function; Modern Life; Evolutionary; Patterns; Ecology; Rates; Disturbance; Dynamics; Traits; Pace; Studies; Genotype & Phenotype; Sustainable Development; Anthropogenic Factors; Fitness; Human Influences; Urban Areas; Urban Development; Species; Disturbances; Wildlife; Fungi; Wildlife Habitats; Social Interactions; Social Factors; Plants (botany); Landscape

Interpretations of Aftershock Advice and Probabilities After the 2013 Cook Strait Earthquakes, Aotearoa New Zealand

Doyle, Emma E. H.; McClure, John; Potter, Sally H.; Lindell, Michael K.; Becker, Julia S.; Fraser, Stuart A.; Johnston, David M. (2020). Interpretations of Aftershock Advice and Probabilities After the 2013 Cook Strait Earthquakes, Aotearoa New Zealand. International Journal Of Disaster Risk Reduction, 49.

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Abstract

Probabilistic statements can be a valuable tool for natural hazard risk communication, including forecasts. However, individuals often have a poor understanding of such probabilistic forecasts caused by them distorting their interpretations of event likelihoods towards the end of the time window and discounting the risk today. We investigated the use of an 'anchoring' time statement to mitigate this bias via an opportunistic survey run after the 2013 Cook Strait earthquakes, near Wellington, New Zealand. Participants rated their interpretations of likelihoods for an immediate aftershock forecast, and for an earthquake in the future. We explored the influence of aftershock and information concern, emotions and felt shaking, gender and education, as well as preparedness actions. The anchoring time window statement mitigated the skew in interpretations for the short (24 h to within 1 week) aftershock forecast statement. However, the skew still existed for the longer future earthquake forecast (7 days to within 1 year). We also found that heightened sensory experience (felt shaking) or emotional reactions (nervousness, fear, alertness) during the earthquakes was associated with an increase in the perceived likelihoods of future events. Gender was found to significantly influence results, with females rating higher levels of information concern and anxiety, and recording higher perceived likelihoods for the immediate aftershock forecast. Findings, including the importance of 'anchoring' time windows within a forecast to encourage immediate preparedness actions, support recommendations for effective crafting of these forecasts and warnings.

Keywords

False Discovery Rate; Risk Perceptions; Natural Hazards; Communication; Uncertainty; Model; Preparedness; Information; Experiences; Intentions; Likelihood; Probabilities; Forecasts; Earthquakes; Emotions; Concern; Gender; Actions

Cascadia Subduction Zone Residents’ Tsunami Evacuation Expectations.

Lindell, Michael K.; Prater, Carla S.; House, Donald H. (2022). Cascadia Subduction Zone Residents’ Tsunami Evacuation Expectations. Geosciences (2076-3263), 12(5).

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Abstract

The U.S. Pacific Northwest coast must be prepared to evacuate immediately after a Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake. This requires coastal residents to understand the tsunami threat, have accurate expectations about warning sources, engage in preimpact evacuation preparedness actions, and plan (and practice) their evacuation logistics, including an appropriate transportation mode, evacuation route, and destination. A survey of 221 residents in three communities identified areas in which many coastal residents have reached adequate levels of preparedness. Moreover, residents who are not adequately prepared are willing to improve their performance in most of the areas in which they fall short. However, many respondents expect to engage in time-consuming evacuation preparations before evacuating. Additionally, their estimates of evacuation travel time might be inaccurate because only 28-52% had practiced their evacuation routes. These results indicate that more coastal residents should prepare grab-and-go kits to speed their departure, as well as practice evacuation preparation and evacuation travel to test the accuracy of these evacuation time estimates. Overall, these results, together with recommendations for overcoming them, can guide CSZ emergency managers in methods of improving hazard awareness and education programs. In addition, these data can guide transportation engineers' evacuation analyses and evacuation plans.

Keywords

Subduction Zones; Tsunamis; Tsunami Warning Systems; Civilian Evacuation; Earthquake Zones; Transportation Engineering; Expectation (psychology); Residents; Cascadia Subduction Zone; Evacuation Preparedness; Evacuation Time Estimates; Tsunami; Natural Warning Signs; Coastal Communities; American-samoa; New-zealand; Earthquake; Behavior; Preparedness; Awareness; Japan; Washington; Earthquakes; Transportation; Evacuations & Rescues; Travel Time; Subduction; Surveying; Evacuation; Travel; Coasts; Emergency Warning Programs; Seismic Activity; Emergency Preparedness; Perceptions; Traveltime; Coastal Zone; Peers; Estimates; Logistics; Evacuation Routing; Subduction (geology); Households; United States--us; Pacific Northwest; Cascadia

Urban Driven Phenotypic Changes: Empirical Observations and Theoretical Implications for Eco-Evolutionary Feedback

Alberti, Marina; Marzluff, John; Hunt, Victoria M. (2017). Urban Driven Phenotypic Changes: Empirical Observations and Theoretical Implications for Eco-Evolutionary Feedback. Philosophical Transactions Of The Royal Society Of London. Series B, Biological Sciences, 372(1712).

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Abstract

Emerging evidence that cities drive micro-evolution raises the question of whether rapid urbanization of Earth might impact ecosystems by causing systemic changes in functional traits that regulate urban ecosystems' productivity and stability. Intraspecific trait variation-variation in organisms' morphological, physiological or behavioural characteristics stemming from genetic variability and phenotypic plasticity-has significant implications for ecological functions such as nutrient cycling and primary productivity. While it is well established that changes in ecological conditions can drive evolutionary change in species' traits that, in turn, can alter ecosystem function, an understanding of the reciprocal and simultaneous processes associated with such interactions is only beginning to emerge. In urban settings, the potential for rapid trait change may be exacerbated by multiple selection pressures operating simultaneously. This paper reviews evidence on mechanisms linking urban development patterns to rapid phenotypic changes, and differentiates phenotypic changes for which there is evidence of micro-evolution versus phenotypic changes which may represent plasticity. Studying how humans mediate phenotypic trait changes through urbanization could shed light on fundamental concepts in ecological and evolutionary theory. It can also contribute to our understanding of eco-evolutionary feedback and provide insights for maintaining ecosystem function over the long term. This article is part of the themed issue 'Human influences on evolution, and the ecological and societal consequences'.

Keywords

Peromyscus-leucopus Populations; Rapid Evolution; Urbanization; Biodiversity; Adaptation; Dynamics; Birds; Environment; Mechanisms; Morphology; Eco-evolution; Ecosystem Function; Urban Ecology; Ecosystems; Plastic Properties; Urban Environments; Evolution; Phenotypic Plasticity; Feedback; Urban Development; Biological Evolution; Plasticity; Environmental Impact; Nutrient Cycles; Environmental Changes; Productivity; Human Influences; Ecological Effects; Urban Areas; Genetic Variability; Physical Characteristics

Analyzing Investments in Flood Protection Structures: A Real Options Approach

Gomez-Cunya, Luis-Angel; Fardhosseini, Mohammad Sadra; Lee, Hyun Woo; Choi, Kunhee. (2020). Analyzing Investments in Flood Protection Structures: A Real Options Approach. International Journal Of Disaster Risk Reduction, 43.

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Abstract

The soaring number of natural hazards in recent years due largely to climate change has resulted in an even higher level of investment in flood protection structures. However, such investments tend to be made in the aftermath of disasters. Very little is known about the proactive planning of flood protection investments that account for uncertainties associated with flooding events. Understanding the uncertainties such as when to invest on these structures to achieve the most optimal cost-saving amount is outmost important. This study fills this large knowledge gap by developing an investment decision-making assessment framework that determines an optimal timing of flood protection investment options. It combines real options with a net present value analysis to examine managerial flexibility in various investment timing options. Historical data that contain information about river water discharges were leveraged as a random variable in the modeling framework because it may help investors better understand the probability of extreme events, and particularly, flooding uncertainties. A lattice model was then used to investigate potential alternatives of investment timing and to evaluate the benefits of delaying investments in each case. The efficacy of the proposed framework was demonstrated by an illustrative example of flood protection investment. The framework will be used to help better inform decision makers.

Keywords

Decision-making; Flood Protection; Real Options Theory; Investment Decision-making

Tsunami Preparedness And Resilience: Evacuation Logistics And Time Estimations

Chen, Chen; Wang, Haizhong; Lindell, Michael K.; Jung, Meen Chel; Siam, M. R. K. (2022). Tsunami Preparedness And Resilience: Evacuation Logistics And Time Estimations. Transportation Research Part D-transport And Environment, 109.

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Abstract

Extensive research has studied the near-field tsunami threat in the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ), but little research has examined the ability to evacuate the inundation zone before the first tsunami wave arrives. To address this gap, this study provides empirical evidence about people's expectations about hazard onset and evacuation logistics when a tsunami threatens. We surveyed households in five CSZ communities to assess residents' expected first wave arrival time, as well as their expectations about evacuation destinations, route choices, preparation times, travel times, and clearance times. Heatmaps are used to summarize residents' evacuation destinations and route choices, and probabilistic functions are used to model evacuation distances and time estimates. The results suggest that respondents have similar patterns of time estimates, but a few plan to evacuate within the inundation zone, and some plan to evacuate on routes that were congested in a previous event and end their evacuations at destinations within the inundation zone.

Keywords

Disaster; Tsunami Evacuation; Time Estimate; Cascadia Subduction Zone; Behavior; Decision-making; American-samoa; Earthquake; Oregon; Washington; Wellington; Responses; Hazard; Model