Hutyra, Lucy R.; Yoon, Byungman; Hepinstall-Cymerman, Jeffrey; Alberti, Marina. (2011). Carbon Consequences of Land Cover Change and Expansion of Urban Lands: A Case Study in the Seattle Metropolitan Region. Landscape And Urban Planning, 103(1), 83 – 93.
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Abstract
Understanding the role humans play in modifying ecosystems through changing land cover is central to addressing our current and emerging environmental challenges. In particular, the consequences of urban growth and land cover change on terrestrial carbon budgets is a growing issue for our rapidly urbanizing planet. Using the lowland Seattle Statistical Metropolitan Area (MSA) region as a case study, this paper explores the consequences of the past land cover changes on vegetative carbon stocks with a combination of direct field measurements and a time series of remote sensing data. Between 1986 and 2007, the amount of urban land cover within the lowland Seattle MSA more than doubled, from 1316 km(2) to 2798 km(2), respectively. Virtually all of the urban expansion was at the expense of forests with the forested area declining from 4472 km(2) in 1986 to 2878 km(2) in 2007. The annual mean rate of urban land cover expansion was 1 +/- 0.6% year(-1). We estimate that the impact of these regional land cover changes on aboveground carbon stocks was an average loss of 1.2 Mg C ha(-1) yr(-1) in vegetative carbon stocks. These carbon losses from urban expansion correspond to nearly 15% of the lowland regional fossil fuel emissions making it an important, albeit typically overlooked, term in regional carbon emissions budgets. As we plan for future urban growth and strive for more ecologically sustainable cities, it is critical that we understand the past patterns and consequences of urban development to inform future land development and conservation strategies. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Keywords
Sprawl; Growth; Carbon Cycle; Emissions; Land Cover; Urbanization; Seattle; Vegetation; Carbon; Carbon Sinks; Case Studies; Cities; Ecosystems; Forests; Fossil Fuels; Humans; Land Use; Planning; Remote Sensing; Time Series Analysis
Jon, Ihnji; Huang, Shih-Kai; Lindell, Michael K. (2019). Perceptions and Expected Immediate Reactions to Severe Storm Displays. Risk Analysis, 39(1), 274 – 290.
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Abstract
The National Weather Service has adopted warning polygons that more specifically indicate the risk area than its previous county-wide warnings. However, these polygons are not defined in terms of numerical strike probabilities (p(s)). To better understand people's interpretations of warning polygons, 167 participants were shown 23 hypothetical scenarios in one of three information conditions-polygon-only (Condition A), polygon + tornadic storm cell (Condition B), and polygon + tornadic storm cell + flanking nontornadic storm cells (Condition C). Participants judged each polygon's p(s) and reported the likelihood of taking nine different response actions. The polygon-only condition replicated the results of previous studies; p(s) was highest at the polygon's centroid and declined in all directions from there. The two conditions displaying storm cells differed from the polygon-only condition only in having p(s) just as high at the polygon's edge nearest the storm cell as at its centroid. Overall, p(s) values were positively correlated with expectations of continuing normal activities, seeking information from social sources, seeking shelter, and evacuating by car. These results indicate that participants make more appropriate p(s) judgments when polygons are presented in their natural context of radar displays than when they are presented in isolation. However, the fact that p(s) judgments had moderately positive correlations with both sheltering (a generally appropriate response) and evacuation (a generally inappropriate response) suggests that experiment participants experience the same ambivalence about these two protective actions as people threatened by actual tornadoes.
Keywords
Decision-making; Tornado; Risk; Communication; Numeracy; Residents; Shelter; Events; Protective Actions; Risk Perceptions; Tornado Warning Polygons; Judgments; Tornadoes; Meteorological Services; Storms; Lymphocytes B; Polygons; Emergency Warning Programs; Evacuation; Displays; Inappropriateness; Weather; Warnings; Conditions; Ambivalence
Des Roches, Simone; Brans, Kristien, I; Lambert, Max R.; Rivkin, L. Ruth; Savage, Amy Marie; Schell, Christopher J.; Correa, Cristian; De Meester, Luc; Diamond, Sarah E.; Grimm, Nancy B.; Harris, Nyeema C.; Govaert, Lynn; Hendry, Andrew P.; Johnson, Marc T. J.; Munshi-south, Jason; Palkovacs, Eric P.; Szulkin, Marta; Urban, Mark C.; Verrelli, Brian C.; Alberti, Marina. (2021). Socio-evolutionary Dynamics in Cities. Evolutionary Applications, 14(1), 248 – 267.
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Abstract
Cities are uniquely complex systems regulated by interactions and feedbacks between nature and human society. Characteristics of human society-including culture, economics, technology and politics-underlie social patterns and activity, creating a heterogeneous environment that can influence and be influenced by both ecological and evolutionary processes. Increasing research on urban ecology and evolutionary biology has coincided with growing interest in eco-evolutionary dynamics, which encompasses the interactions and reciprocal feedbacks between evolution and ecology. Research on both urban evolutionary biology and eco-evolutionary dynamics frequently focuses on contemporary evolution of species that have potentially substantial ecological-and even social-significance. Still, little work fully integrates urban evolutionary biology and eco-evolutionary dynamics, and rarely do researchers in either of these fields fully consider the role of human social patterns and processes. Because cities are fundamentally regulated by human activities, are inherently interconnected and are frequently undergoing social and economic transformation, they represent an opportunity for ecologists and evolutionary biologists to study urban socio-eco-evolutionary dynamics. Through this new framework, we encourage researchers of urban ecology and evolution to fully integrate human social drivers and feedbacks to increase understanding and conservation of ecosystems, their functions and their contributions to people within and outside cities.
Keywords
Urban Ecology (biology); Urban Research; Urban Ecology (sociology); Social Processes; Biologists; Adaptation; Anthropogenic; Coupled Human-natural Systems; Eco-evo; Socio-ecological Systems; Urbanization; Rapid Evolution; Ecosystem Services; Long-term; Ecological Consequences; Partitioning Metrics; Evosystem Services; Genetic Diversity; Rattus-norvegicus; Local Adaptation; Urban Landscapes; Coupled Human-natural Systems; Eco-evo; Socio-ecological Systems
El-Anwar, Omar. (2013). Advancing Optimization of Hybrid Housing Development Plans Following Disasters: Achieving Computational Robustness, Effectiveness, and Efficiency. Journal Of Computing In Civil Engineering, 27(4), 358 – 369.
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Abstract
Following disasters, displaced families often face significant challenges to move from temporary to permanent housing. The Federal Emergency Management Agency is exploring alternative housing pilot programs to evaluate the possibility of providing quickly deployable, affordable housing that can serve both as temporary and permanent housing. Because of the complexities and costs associated with these programs, it is impractical to assume that accelerated permanent housing can fully replace the need for traditional temporary housing, especially in cases of large-scale displacements. A novel methodology was developed to evaluate the socioeconomic benefits of candidate configurations of hybrid housing plans, which incorporates both temporary and accelerated permanent housing developments. This paper presents the computational implementation and performance analysis of this novel methodology to offer a practical decision-support tool to emergency planners. To this end, genetic algorithms and integer-programming optimization models are formulated, and their performances are analyzed based on their effectiveness, efficiency, and robustness. In lieu of developing the integer-programming model, the paper also presents a linear formulation that overcomes the need to use logical operations to model fixed and variable cost components for developing housing projects. Results show the superior performance of integer programming, whereas genetic algorithms offer higher modeling flexibility.
Keywords
Decision Support Systems; Emergency Management; Genetic Algorithms; Integer Programming; Advancing Optimization; Hybrid Housing Development Plans Following Disasters; Achieving Computational Robustness; Achieving Computational Effectiveness; Achieving Computational Efficiency; Federal Emergency Management Agency; Housing Pilot Programs; Temporary Housing; Permanent Housing Developments; Decision-support Tool; Emergency Planners; Integer-programming Optimization Models; Logical Operations; Optimization; Disasters; Housing; Social Factors; Economic Factors; Computation; Hybrid Methods; Disaster Recovery; Accelerated Permanent Housing; Socioeconomic Welfare; Robustness; Effectiveness; Computational Efficiency; 0
Lindell, Michael K.; Arlikatti, Sudha; Huang, Shih-kai. (2019). Immediate Behavioral Response to the June 17, 2013 Flash Floods in Uttarakhand, North India. International Journal Of Disaster Risk Reduction, 34, 129 – 146.
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Abstract
The 2013 Uttarakhand flash flood was such a surprise for those at risk that the predominant source of information for their risk was environmental cues and, secondarily, peer warnings rather than official warnings. Of those who received warnings, few received information other than the identity of the flood threat. A survey of 316 survivors found that most people's first response was to immediately evacuate but some stayed to receive additional information, confirm their warnings, or engage in evacuation preparations. Unfortunately, engaging in these milling behaviors necessarily delayed their final evacuations. Mediation analysis revealed that psychological reactions mediated the relationship between information sources and behavioral responses. Further analyses revealed that immediate evacuation and evacuation delay were both predicted best by information search and positive affect, but correlation analyses indicated that a number of other models were also plausible. Final evacuation was best predicted by immediate evacuation and, to a significantly lesser extent, household together. Overall, results suggest that the Protective Action Decision Model (PADM) should be considered a useful framework for examining household responses to flash floods in developing countries like India. It supports the conclusion that a household's first warning source is a function of two distinct detection and dissemination systems within a community-an official system and an informal system. However, it fails to capture what pre-impact emergency preparedness entails for rapid onset events in a developing country context. Further research is needed to determine the relative importance of situational and cultural characteristics in producing these observed differences.
Keywords
Risk Perception; Mental Models; Warnings; Evacuation; Disaster; Tsunami; Communication; Earthquake; Beliefs; Hazard; Flash Flood; Warning; Psychological Reactions; India
Jung, Meen Chel; Dyson, Karen; Alberti, Marina. (2021). Urban Landscape Heterogeneity Influences the Relationship Between Tree Canopy and Land Surface Temperature. Urban Forestry & Urban Greening, 57.
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Abstract
Urban trees play a key role in alleviating elevated summertime land surface temperatures in cities. However, urban landscape influences the capacity of urban trees to mitigate higher temperatures. We propose that both developed land characteristics and tree cover should be considered to accurately estimate the mitigation effects of canopy cover. We subclassified original land cover based on the canopy cover ratio to capture the within-land cover heterogeneity. We selected two coastal cities with different summertime climatic conditions: Seattle, Washington, USA, and Baltimore, Maryland, USA. We used Landsat-based grid cells (30 m x 30 m) as our spatial analytical unit, with corresponding land surface temperature, canopy area, canopy compactness, population size, and National Land Cover Database (NLCD)-based land cover group. We first used grouped boxplots, Kruskal-Wallis H tests, and post-hoc multiple comparison tests to detect the distribution of land surface temperatures by the land cover group. We then introduced statistical models to test the group effects on the relationship between land surface temperatures and canopy cover variables. We found: (1) land surface temperature increases with level of development, (2) land surface temperature decreases with canopy cover level, (3) the magnitude of the mitigation effects from canopy area differs based on development level and current canopy cover, (4) the differing efficacies of canopy area in decreasing land surface temperature follows a nonlinear threshold relationship, and (5) compactness of canopy cover was not significant in reducing the land surface temperature. These findings suggest the importance of considering heterogeneous canopy cover within developed land cover classes in urban heat island research. Tree planting strategies need to consider the nonlinear relationships between tree canopy cover and land surface temperature alongside environmental equity concerns.
Keywords
Extreme Heat Events; Climate-change; Cover Data; Island; Pattern; Cities; Vegetation; Mortality; Phoenix; Impact; Canopy Cover; Environmental Equity; Land Cover; Land Surface Temperature; Mitigation Effect; Area; Canopy; Cells; Climatic Factors; Databases; Heat Island; Landscapes; Multiple Comparison Test; Planting; Population Size; Research; Statistical Models; Summer; Surface Temperature; Testing; Trees; Urban Forestry; Maryland
Research Interests: Designing built environments to enhance human happiness, and related principles: Justice, Nature Integration, Access, Identity, Well-Being, Resiliency.
I am interested in environmental democracy and the material and social dynamics that interact to affect community well-being and ecological health. While completing my Master of Public Health degree at UW, I led projects for the Health Impact Assessment of the Cleanup Plan for the Duwamish Superfund Site in Seattle, and then evaluated the outcomes of that HIA. Research for my PhD in the Built Environment will build on that work, further considering the determinants and production of adaptive capacity, resilience, sustainability, and vitality.
Research Interests: Urban resilience, disaster risk reduction, climate change, community engagement.
A team led by the University of Washington has received a nearly $2 million grant from the National Science Foundation to further research into how urban societal systems can be organized to be both efficient and resilient. The Leading Engineering for America’s Prosperity, Health and Infrastructure (LEAP-HI) project, based in the UW College of Engineering, supports fundamental research to generate the knowledge, mechanisms and tools needed to design an adaptable society. That is one, researchers say, that can switch between different operating strategies depending…