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A Water Quality Prediction Model for Large-scale Rivers Based on Projection Pursuit Regression in the Yangtze River

Yi, Ze-ji; Yang, Xiao-hua; Li, Yu-qi. (2022). A Water Quality Prediction Model for Large-scale Rivers Based on Projection Pursuit Regression in the Yangtze River. Thermal Science, 26(3), 2561-2567.

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Abstract

In recent decades, the Yangtze River Basin, which carries hundreds of millions of people and a substantial economic scale, has been plagued by water quality dete-rioration, threatening considerably sustainable development. In this paper, a sample set is established based on the water quality indexes of chemical oxygen demand and dissolved oxygen obtained by week-by-week monitoring on the main stream of the Yangtze River in Panzhihua, Yueyang, Jiujiang, and Nanjing from 2006 to 2018. The twelve characteristic variables are selected by random forest technique, and the week-by-week dynamic prediction models of chemical oxygen demand and dissolved oxygen at each section of main stream are established by the projection pursuit regression, which can effectively predict the water quality dynamics of the Yangtze River main stream.

Keywords

Pollution; Water Quality; Dynamic Prediction Model; Random Forest; Projection Pursuit Regression; Yangtze River

Improving Cascadia Subduction Zone Residents’ Tsunami Preparedness: Quasi-experimental Evaluation of an Evacuation Brochure

Lindell, Michael K.; Jung, Meen Chel; Prater, Carla S.; House, Donald H. (2022). Improving Cascadia Subduction Zone Residents’ Tsunami Preparedness: Quasi-experimental Evaluation of an Evacuation Brochure. Natural Hazards, 114(1), 849-881.

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Abstract

This study surveyed 227 residents in three US Pacific Coast communities that are vulnerable to a Cascadia subduction zone tsunami. In the Brochure condition, information was presented online, followed by questions about tsunamis. Respondents in the Comparison condition received the same questionnaire by mail but did not view the brochure. Respondents in the Brochure condition had higher levels of perceived information sufficiency than those in the Comparison condition about three of the five tsunami topics. Both conditions had generally realistic expectations about most tsunami warning sources. However, they had unrealistically high expectations of being warned of a local tsunami by social sources, such as route alerting, that could not be implemented before first wave arrival. They also had unrealistically high expectations being warned of a distant tsunami by ground shaking from the source earthquake, whose epicenter would be too far away for them to feel. Moreover, respondents in both conditions expected higher levels of personal property damage and family casualties than is the case for most hazards, but their levels of negative affective response were not especially high. Overall, only 10% of the sample accessed the tsunami brochure even when sent repeated contacts and the brochure demonstrated modest effects for those who did access it. These results suggest that state and local officials should engage in repeated personalized efforts to increase coastal communities' tsunami emergency preparedness because distribution of tsunami brochures has only a modest effect on preparedness.

Keywords

Subduction Zones; Tsunamis; Emergency Management; Tsunami Warning Systems; Brochures; Preparedness; Communities; Cascadia Subduction Zone Tsunami; Hazard Warnings; Quasi-experiment; Risk Communication; Risk Information-seeking; Natural Warning Signs; Earthquake; Awareness; Responses; Behavior; Model; Wellington; Hazard; Threat; Earthquakes; Casualties; Subduction; Vulnerability; Emergency Preparedness; Emergency Warning Programs; Levels; Seismic Activity; Property Damage; Shaking; Earthquake Damage; Subduction (geology); Disaster Management; Cascadia

Celina Balderas Guzmán

Celina Balderas Guzmán, PhD, is Assistant Professor in the Department of Landscape Architecture. Dr. Balderas’ research spans environmental planning, design, and science and focuses on climate adaptation to sea level rise on the coast and urban stormwater inland. On the coast, her work demonstrates specific ways that the climate adaptation actions of humans and adaptation of ecosystems are interdependent. Her work explores how these interdependencies can be maladaptive by shifting vulnerabilities to other humans or non-humans, or synergistic. Using ecological modeling, she has explored these interdependencies focusing on coastal wetlands as nature-based solutions. Her work informs cross-sectoral adaptation planning at a regional scale.

Inland, Dr. Balderas studies urban stormwater through a social-ecological lens. Using data science and case studies, her work investigates the relationship between stormwater pollution and the social, urban form, and land cover characteristics of watersheds. In past research, she developed new typologies of stormwater wetlands based on lab testing in collaboration with environmental engineers. The designs closely integrated hydraulic performance, ecological potential, and recreational opportunities into one form.

Her research has been funded by major institutions such as the National Science Foundation, National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center, UC Berkeley, and the MIT Abdul Latif Jameel Water and Food Systems Lab. She has a PhD in the Department of Landscape Architecture and Environmental Planning from the University of California, Berkeley. Previously, she obtained masters degrees in urban planning and urban design, as well as an undergraduate degree in architecture all from MIT.

Dylan Stevenson

Dylan Stevenson’s (Prairie Band Potawatomi descent) research examines how culture informs planning strategies and influences land relationships. More specifically, he investigates how tribal epistemologies structure notions of Indigenous futurities by centering Indigenous cultural values at the forefront of environmental stewardship and cultural preservation. He is currently working on a project researching how governments (Federal, State, and Tribal) embed cultural values in Water Resources Planning strategies, drawing from ethnographic research he conducted in the joint territory of the United Keetoowah Band of Cherokee Indians and Cherokee Nation in Oklahoma. His other research interests include ecological restoration, intangible cultural heritage, and food systems planning. Previously, Dylan has worked for public and quasi-public entities dealing with the implementation and compliance of local, state, and federal legislation in California and has forthcoming work analyzing Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) initiatives in planning programs.

Dylan earned his Ph.D. in the Department of City and Regional Planning at Cornell University. He earned his master’s degree in Planning with a concentration in Preservation and Design of the Built Environment from the University of Southern California, a bachelor’s degree in Linguistics with a minor in Native American Studies from the University of California—Davis, and an associate of arts degree in Liberal Arts from De Anza College.

uilding Watershed Narratives: An Approach for Broadening the Scope of Success in Urban Stream Restoration

Yocom, Ken. (2014). Building Watershed Narratives: An Approach for Broadening the Scope of Success in Urban Stream Restoration. Landscape Research, 39(6), 698 – 714.

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Abstract

The success of urban stream restoration is often measured through biophysical attributes, or the progress towards restoration of a notionally intact section of landscape. What remains understudied is how success can be defined across social, economic, as well as ecological parameters. This research offers a narrative approach for urban restoration research that serves as a chronotope for untangling the biophysical and sociocultural complexities of the contemporary urban environment. The framework of this approach is presented through a case study of a recent stream restoration project in Seattle, Washington. The findings highlight the need for urban stream restoration processes to be grounded within a sociocultural context that is interdependent with biophysical conditions, and recommends measures of project success to include community, educational and participatory goals.

Keywords

River Restoration; Landscape; Management; Catchment; Systems; History; People; Restoration; Success; Watershed; Narrative; Urban

The Unignorable Impacts of Pan Wall on Pan Evaporation Dynamics

Wang, Kaiwen; Liu, Xiaomang; Liu, Changming; Yang, Xiaohua; Bai, Peng; Li, Yuqi; Pan, Zharong. (2019). The Unignorable Impacts of Pan Wall on Pan Evaporation Dynamics. Agricultural & Forest Meteorology, 274, 42 – 50.

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Abstract

Open water evaporation (E-ow), such as evaporation of lake and reservoir, is typically estimated by observations of different pans. The observation networks of pan evaporation (E-pan) were established and maintained worldwide for a long history. All the pans in the world consist of water body and pan wall, which includes side wall, pan rim and (if any) pan bottom. Since the pan wall will affect E-pan by radiation absorption and heat conduction, once pan wall absorbs and conducts more heat for vaporizing than water body in a pan, observed E-pan dynamics will greatly deviate E-ow causing uncertainties and errors in estimating E-ow. Thus, this study calculated E-pan at 767 meteorological stations in China and quantified the contributions of water body and pan wall on E-pan trends. For China as a whole, E-pan decreased at -3.75 mm/a(2) and increased at 3.68 mm/a(2) during 1960-1993 and 1993-2016, respectively. 84% of E-pan trends were contributed by water body. For 767 stations, E-pan trends of 84 and 96 stations were dominated by pan wall during 1960-1993 and 1993-2016, respectively. Since pan wall contributed more than half of E-pan trends for (similar to)23% of the stations in China, the impacts of pan wall on E-pan dynamics cannot be ignored.

Keywords

Heat Radiation & Absorption; Heat Conduction; Meteorological Stations; Bodies Of Water; Dynamics; Water Diversion; China; Pan Evaporation Dynamics; Pan Wall; Radiation Absorption And Heat Conduction; Trends; Sensitivity; Demand; Model; Absorption; Evaporation; Heat Transfer; Lakes; Surface Water; Uncertainty

Tsunami Preparedness And Resilience: Evacuation Logistics And Time Estimations

Chen, Chen; Wang, Haizhong; Lindell, Michael K.; Jung, Meen Chel; Siam, M. R. K. (2022). Tsunami Preparedness And Resilience: Evacuation Logistics And Time Estimations. Transportation Research Part D-transport And Environment, 109.

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Abstract

Extensive research has studied the near-field tsunami threat in the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ), but little research has examined the ability to evacuate the inundation zone before the first tsunami wave arrives. To address this gap, this study provides empirical evidence about people's expectations about hazard onset and evacuation logistics when a tsunami threatens. We surveyed households in five CSZ communities to assess residents' expected first wave arrival time, as well as their expectations about evacuation destinations, route choices, preparation times, travel times, and clearance times. Heatmaps are used to summarize residents' evacuation destinations and route choices, and probabilistic functions are used to model evacuation distances and time estimates. The results suggest that respondents have similar patterns of time estimates, but a few plan to evacuate within the inundation zone, and some plan to evacuate on routes that were congested in a previous event and end their evacuations at destinations within the inundation zone.

Keywords

Disaster; Tsunami Evacuation; Time Estimate; Cascadia Subduction Zone; Behavior; Decision-making; American-samoa; Earthquake; Oregon; Washington; Wellington; Responses; Hazard; Model

Ecological Design For Urban Waterfronts

Dyson, Karen; Yocom, Ken. (2015). Ecological Design For Urban Waterfronts. Urban Ecosystems, 18(1), 189 – 208.

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Abstract

Urban waterfronts are rarely designed to support biodiversity and other ecosystem services, yet have the potential to provide these services. New approaches that integrate ecological research into the design of docks and seawalls provide opportunities to mitigate the environmental impacts of urbanization and recover ecosystem function in urban waterfronts. A review of current examples of ecological design in temperate cities informs suggestions for future action. Conventional infrastructures have significant and diverse impacts on aquatic ecosystems. The impacts of conventional infrastructure are reduced where ecological designs have been implemented, particularly by projects adding microhabitat, creating more shallow water habitat, and reconstructing missing or altered rocky benthic habitats. Opportunities for future research include expanding current research into additional ecosystems, examining ecological processes and emergent properties to better address ecosystem function in ecological design, and addressing the impact of and best practices for continuing maintenance. Planned ecological infrastructure to replace aging and obsolete structures will benefit from design feedback derived from carefully executed in situ pilot studies.

Keywords

Coastal Defense Structures; Fixed Artificial Habitats; Marine Habitats; Intertidal Seawalls; Benthic Communities; Reconciliation Ecology; Subtidal Epibiota; Rocky Shores; Reef; Biodiversity; Ecological Design; Seawalls; Habitat; Waterfront; Urban Infrastructure; Aquatic Ecology

Pan Coefficient Sensitivity to Environment Variables across China

Wang, Kaiwen; Liu, Xiaomang; Tian, Wei; Li, Yanzhong; Liang, Kang; Liu, Changming; Li, Yuqi; Yang, Xiaohua. (2019). Pan Coefficient Sensitivity to Environment Variables across China. Journal Of Hydrology, 572, 582 – 591.

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Abstract

Data of open water evaporation (E-ow), such as evaporation of lake and reservoir, have been widely used in hydraulic and hydrological engineering projects, and water resources planning and management in agriculture, forestry and ecology. Because of the low-cost and maneuverability, measuring the evaporation of a pan has been widely regarded as a reliable approach to estimate E-ow through multiplying an appropriate pan coefficient (K-p). K-p is affected by geometry and materials of a pan, and complex surrounding environment variables. However, the relationship between K-p and different environment variables is unknown. Thus, this study chose China D20 pan as an example, used meteorological observations from 767 stations and introduced the latest PenPan model to analyze the sensitivity of K-p to different environment variables. The results show that, the distribution of annual K-p had a strong spatial gradient. For all the stations, annual K-p ranged from 0.31 to 0.89, and decreased gradually from southeast to northwest. The sensitivity analysis shows that for China as a whole, K-p was most sensitive to relative humidity, followed by air temperature, wind speed and sunshine duration. For 767 stations in China, K-p was most sensitive to relative humidity for almost all the stations. For stations north of Yellow River, wind speed and sunshine duration were the next sensitive variables; while for stations south of Yellow River, air temperature was the next sensitive variable. The method introduced in this study could benefit estimating and predicting K-p under future changing environment.

Keywords

Atmospheric Temperature; Hydraulic Engineering; Meteorological Observations; Humidity; Water Supply; Evaporation (meteorology); Sunshine; Lake Management; China; Kp Most Sensitive To Relative Humidity; Open Water Evaporation; Pan Coefficient (kp); Pan Evaporation; Sensitivity Analysis; Reference Evapotranspiration; Reference Crop; Evaporation; Water; Model; Pan Coefficient (k-p); K-p Most Sensitive To Relative Humidity; Air Temperature; Ecology; Forestry; Geometry; Hydrologic Engineering; Lakes; Maneuverability; Meteorological Data; Models; Planning; Prediction; Relative Humidity; Solar Radiation; Wind Speed; Yellow River

Exposure Path Perceptions and Protective Actions in Biological Water Contamination Emergencies

Lindell, Michael K.; Mumpower, Jeryl L.; Huang, Shih-kai; Wu, Hao-che; Samuelson, Charles D. (2015). Exposure Path Perceptions and Protective Actions in Biological Water Contamination Emergencies. Environmental Health Insights, 9, 13 – 21.

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Abstract

This study extends the Protective Action Decision Model, developed to address disaster warning responses in the context of natural hazards, to boil water advisories. The study examined 110 Boston residents' and 203 Texas students' expectations of getting sick through different exposure paths for contact with contaminated water. In addition, the study assessed respondents' actual implementation (for residents) or behavioral expectations (for students) of three different protective actions - bottled water, boiled water, and personally chlorinated water - as well as their demographic characteristics and previous experience with water contamination. The results indicate that people distinguish among the exposure paths, but the differences are small (one-third to one-half of the response scale). Nonetheless, the perceived risk from the exposure paths helps to explain why people are expected to consume (or actually consumed) bottled water rather than boiled or personally chlorinated water. Overall, these results indicate that local authorities should take care to communicate the relative risks of different exposure paths and should expect that people will respond to a boil water order primarily by consuming bottled water. Thus, they should make special efforts to increase supplies of bottled water in their communities during water contamination emergencies.

Keywords

Water Contamination; Exposure Paths; Risk Perception; Protective Action