In the United States, flooding is a leading cause of natural disasters, with congressional budget office estimates of $54 billion in loss each year. Although both urban and rural areas are highly vulnerable to flood hazards, most natural disaster resilience studies have focused primarily on urban areas, overlooking rural communities. One such area that has been overlooked are the numerous rural communities bordering the Great Lakes. These communities face unprecedented challenges due to rising water levels, particularly since 2012, which have resulted in increased coastal flood hazard. Despite their flooding risk, they continue to lack flood hazard assessments and inundation maps, exacerbating their vulnerability. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) commonly recommend counties to use a freely available tool—called HAZUS to develop hazard mitigation plans and enhance community resilience and adaptation. However, the usage of HAZUS for rural communities is challenging due to existing data gaps that limit the analytical potential of HAZUS in these communities. Continued use of standard datasets for HAZUS analysis by rural counties could likely leave the communities underprepared for future flood events. The proposed project’s vision is to develop methods that use remote sensing data resources and citizen engagement (crowdsourcing) to address current data gaps for improved flood hazard modeling and visualization that is scalable and transferable to rural communities.
The results of the project will expand the traditional frontiers of preparedness and resilience to natural disasters by drawing on the expertise and backgrounds of investigators working at the interface of geological engineering, civil engineering, computer science, marine engineering, urban planning, social science, and remote sensing. Specifically, the proposed research will promote intellectual discovery by i) improving our understanding of remote sensing data sources and open-source processing methods to assist rural communities in addressing the data gaps in flood hazard modeling, ii) developing sustainable geospatial visualization tools for communicating hazards to communities, iii) advancing our understanding of the utility of combining remote sensing and crowdsourcing to flood hazard delineation, iv) understanding ways to incentives the crowd for greater participation and accuracy in hazard in addressing natural disasters, and v) identifying critical community resilience indicators through crowdsourcing. These advancements will lead to prepared and resilient rural communities that can effectively mitigate hazards related to lake level rise and flooding.
De Almeida, Catherine. (2019). Performative By-Products: The Emergence of Waste Reuse Strategies at the Blue Lagoon. Journal of Landscape Architecture, 13(3), 64-77.
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Abstract
Materials and landscapes associated with waste are perceived as objectionable. By reactivating and embracing waste conditions as desirable opportunities for diverse programmes rooted in economy, ecology, and culture, designers can form hybrid assemblages on waste sites through the exchange of waste materials—a landscape lifecycles approach. This frame-work is applicable to not only design research, but also as a critical lens for evaluating the landscape performance of existing projects that engage with waste reuse. The Blue Lagoon in southwest Iceland materialized as a spa industry out of geothermal waste effluent from the adjacent Svartsengi Geothermal Power Station, reusing undesirable materials and transforming a waste landscape through diversified material recovery strategies. Featuring an industrial by-product turned economic generator, this case study reveals the opportunities for reusing geothermal ‘waste’ in these emergent landscape conditions, which hybridize economies with recreation, research, and ecology, and shift the conventional relationship with waste from passive to performative.
Keywords
Waste reuse; Blue Lagoon; material lifecycles; Iceland; landscape reclamation
Yi, Ze-ji; Yang, Xiao-hua; Li, Yu-qi. (2022). A Water Quality Prediction Model for Large-scale Rivers Based on Projection Pursuit Regression in the Yangtze River. Thermal Science, 26(3), 2561-2567.
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Abstract
In recent decades, the Yangtze River Basin, which carries hundreds of millions of people and a substantial economic scale, has been plagued by water quality dete-rioration, threatening considerably sustainable development. In this paper, a sample set is established based on the water quality indexes of chemical oxygen demand and dissolved oxygen obtained by week-by-week monitoring on the main stream of the Yangtze River in Panzhihua, Yueyang, Jiujiang, and Nanjing from 2006 to 2018. The twelve characteristic variables are selected by random forest technique, and the week-by-week dynamic prediction models of chemical oxygen demand and dissolved oxygen at each section of main stream are established by the projection pursuit regression, which can effectively predict the water quality dynamics of the Yangtze River main stream.
Keywords
Pollution; Water Quality; Dynamic Prediction Model; Random Forest; Projection Pursuit Regression; Yangtze River
Lindell, Michael K.; Jung, Meen Chel; Prater, Carla S.; House, Donald H. (2022). Improving Cascadia Subduction Zone Residents’ Tsunami Preparedness: Quasi-experimental Evaluation of an Evacuation Brochure. Natural Hazards, 114(1), 849-881.
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Abstract
This study surveyed 227 residents in three US Pacific Coast communities that are vulnerable to a Cascadia subduction zone tsunami. In the Brochure condition, information was presented online, followed by questions about tsunamis. Respondents in the Comparison condition received the same questionnaire by mail but did not view the brochure. Respondents in the Brochure condition had higher levels of perceived information sufficiency than those in the Comparison condition about three of the five tsunami topics. Both conditions had generally realistic expectations about most tsunami warning sources. However, they had unrealistically high expectations of being warned of a local tsunami by social sources, such as route alerting, that could not be implemented before first wave arrival. They also had unrealistically high expectations being warned of a distant tsunami by ground shaking from the source earthquake, whose epicenter would be too far away for them to feel. Moreover, respondents in both conditions expected higher levels of personal property damage and family casualties than is the case for most hazards, but their levels of negative affective response were not especially high. Overall, only 10% of the sample accessed the tsunami brochure even when sent repeated contacts and the brochure demonstrated modest effects for those who did access it. These results suggest that state and local officials should engage in repeated personalized efforts to increase coastal communities' tsunami emergency preparedness because distribution of tsunami brochures has only a modest effect on preparedness.
Keywords
Subduction Zones; Tsunamis; Emergency Management; Tsunami Warning Systems; Brochures; Preparedness; Communities; Cascadia Subduction Zone Tsunami; Hazard Warnings; Quasi-experiment; Risk Communication; Risk Information-seeking; Natural Warning Signs; Earthquake; Awareness; Responses; Behavior; Model; Wellington; Hazard; Threat; Earthquakes; Casualties; Subduction; Vulnerability; Emergency Preparedness; Emergency Warning Programs; Levels; Seismic Activity; Property Damage; Shaking; Earthquake Damage; Subduction (geology); Disaster Management; Cascadia
Celina Balderas Guzmán, PhD, is Assistant Professor in the Department of Landscape Architecture. Dr. Balderas’ research spans environmental planning, design, and science and focuses on climate adaptation to sea level rise on the coast and urban stormwater inland. On the coast, her work demonstrates specific ways that the climate adaptation actions of humans and adaptation of ecosystems are interdependent. Her work explores how these interdependencies can be maladaptive by shifting vulnerabilities to other humans or non-humans, or synergistic. Using ecological modeling, she has explored these interdependencies focusing on coastal wetlands as nature-based solutions. Her work informs cross-sectoral adaptation planning at a regional scale.
Inland, Dr. Balderas studies urban stormwater through a social-ecological lens. Using data science and case studies, her work investigates the relationship between stormwater pollution and the social, urban form, and land cover characteristics of watersheds. In past research, she developed new typologies of stormwater wetlands based on lab testing in collaboration with environmental engineers. The designs closely integrated hydraulic performance, ecological potential, and recreational opportunities into one form.
Her research has been funded by major institutions such as the National Science Foundation, National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center, UC Berkeley, and the MIT Abdul Latif Jameel Water and Food Systems Lab. She has a PhD in the Department of Landscape Architecture and Environmental Planning from the University of California, Berkeley. Previously, she obtained masters degrees in urban planning and urban design, as well as an undergraduate degree in architecture all from MIT.
Dylan Stevenson’s (Prairie Band Potawatomi descent) research examines how culture informs planning strategies and influences land relationships. More specifically, he investigates how tribal epistemologies structure notions of Indigenous futurities by centering Indigenous cultural values at the forefront of environmental stewardship and cultural preservation. He is currently working on a project researching how governments (Federal, State, and Tribal) embed cultural values in Water Resources Planning strategies, drawing from ethnographic research he conducted in the joint territory of the United Keetoowah Band of Cherokee Indians and Cherokee Nation in Oklahoma. His other research interests include ecological restoration, intangible cultural heritage, and food systems planning. Previously, Dylan has worked for public and quasi-public entities dealing with the implementation and compliance of local, state, and federal legislation in California and has forthcoming work analyzing Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) initiatives in planning programs.
Dylan earned his Ph.D. in the Department of City and Regional Planning at Cornell University. He earned his master’s degree in Planning with a concentration in Preservation and Design of the Built Environment from the University of Southern California, a bachelor’s degree in Linguistics with a minor in Native American Studies from the University of California—Davis, and an associate of arts degree in Liberal Arts from De Anza College.
Huang, Shih-kai; Lindell, Michael K.; Prater, Carla S. (2016). Who Leaves and Who Stays? A Review and Statistical Meta-Analysis of Hurricane Evacuation Studies. Environment And Behavior, 48(8), 991 – 1029.
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Abstract
This statistical meta-analysis (SMA) examined 38 studies involving actual responses to hurricane warnings and 11 studies involving expected responses to hypothetical hurricane scenarios conducted since 1991. The results indicate official warnings, mobile home residence, risk area residence, observations of environmental (storm conditions) and social (other people's behavior) cues, and expectations of severe personal impacts, all have consistently significant effects on household evacuation. Other variablesespecially demographic variableshave weaker effects on evacuation, perhaps via indirect effects. Finally, the SMA also indicates that the effect sizes from actual hurricane evacuation studies are similar to those from studies of hypothetical hurricane scenarios for 10 of 17 variables that were examined. These results can be used to guide the design of hurricane evacuation transportation analyses and emergency managers' warning programs. They also suggest that laboratory and Internet experiments could be used to examine people's cognitive processing of different types of hurricane warning messages.
Keywords
Decision-making; Risk; Power; Probability; Information; Perception; Responses; Warnings; Ike; Hurricane Evacuation; Statistical Meta-analysis; Actual Evacuations; Hypothetical Scenarios; Hazard Warnings
Gomez-Cunya, Luis-Angel; Fardhosseini, Mohammad Sadra; Lee, Hyun Woo; Choi, Kunhee. (2020). Analyzing Investments in Flood Protection Structures: A Real Options Approach. International Journal Of Disaster Risk Reduction, 43.
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Abstract
The soaring number of natural hazards in recent years due largely to climate change has resulted in an even higher level of investment in flood protection structures. However, such investments tend to be made in the aftermath of disasters. Very little is known about the proactive planning of flood protection investments that account for uncertainties associated with flooding events. Understanding the uncertainties such as when to invest on these structures to achieve the most optimal cost-saving amount is outmost important. This study fills this large knowledge gap by developing an investment decision-making assessment framework that determines an optimal timing of flood protection investment options. It combines real options with a net present value analysis to examine managerial flexibility in various investment timing options. Historical data that contain information about river water discharges were leveraged as a random variable in the modeling framework because it may help investors better understand the probability of extreme events, and particularly, flooding uncertainties. A lattice model was then used to investigate potential alternatives of investment timing and to evaluate the benefits of delaying investments in each case. The efficacy of the proposed framework was demonstrated by an illustrative example of flood protection investment. The framework will be used to help better inform decision makers.
Keywords
Decision-making; Flood Protection; Real Options Theory; Investment Decision-making
McPhearson, Timon; Pickett, Steward T. A.; Grimm, Nancy B.; Niemela, Jari; Alberti, Marina; Elmqvist, Thomas; Weber, Christiane; Haase, Dagmar; Breuste, Juergen; Qureshi, Salman. (2016). Advancing Urban Ecology toward a Science of Cities. Bioscience, 66(3), 198 – 212.
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Abstract
Urban ecology is a field encompassing multiple disciplines and practical applications and has grown rapidly. However, the field is heterogeneous as a global inquiry with multiple theoretical and conceptual frameworks, variable research approaches, and a lack of coordination among multiple schools of thought and research foci. Here, we present an international consensus on how urban ecology can advance along multiple research directions. There is potential for the field to mature as a holistic, integrated science of urban systems. Such an integrated science could better inform decisionmakers who need increased understanding of complex relationships among social, ecological, economic, and built infrastructure systems. To advance the field requires conceptual synthesis, knowledge and data sharing; cross-city comparative research, new intellectual networks, and engagement with additional disciplines. We consider challenges and opportunities for understanding dynamics of urban systems. We suggest pathways for advancing urban ecology research to support the goals of improving urban sustainability and resilience, conserving urban biodiversity, and promoting human well-being on an urbanizing planet.
Keywords
Urban Ecology (biology); Urban Biodiversity; Urbanization & The Environment; Life Sciences; Medical Sciences; Comparative Research; Complexity; Conceptual Frameworks; Urban Ecology; Urban Systems; Ecosystem Services; Green Spaces; Resilience; Framework; Systems; Design; Water; Tree
Harris, Keith. (2020). Blue Seattle: Immanent Ethics and Contemporary Urbanisation. Area, 52(2), 273 – 281.
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Abstract
This paper asserts that critical investigations into the urbanisation process should consider the actually existing ethics of the process itself, without defaulting to transcendent normative principles. Grounded in an ontology of immanence, as presented in Deleuze and Guattari's (9) political philosophy, I argue that attention must be paid to the production and transformation of normativity. Using the redevelopment of the South Lake Union (SLU) neighbourhood of Seattle - (in)famously home to Amazon, but largely envisioned and developed by Paul Allen's investment and philanthropic organisation, Vulcan - as an analytical starting point, this paper sketches out a profile of the blue dimension of the genesis of Seattle's environmental ethic, from early efforts to reshape the region's hydrology and address water pollution in Lake Washington, through efforts by governmental bodies and Vulcan to protect water quality and salmon habitat, and on to a large-scale infrastructure project - the Elliott Bay Seawall replacement - that includes features to enhance biodiversity and ecological functioning in the nearshore environment. In tracking these movements, I identify the emergence of an explicitly post-anthropocentric ethic from what initially appears as an aesthetic concern, while also highlighting the ongoing complexification of an earlier engineering ethic that dates back to the earliest attempts by settlers to manage the natural environment.
Keywords
Water Pollution; Urbanization; Water Quality; Ethics; Political Philosophy; Home Ownership; Seattle (wash.); Blue Space; Deleuze And Guattari; Immanence; Post-anthropocentrism; Seattle; Allen, Paul, 1953-2018; Deleuze; Post-anthropocentrism