Yi, Ze-ji; Yang, Xiao-hua; Li, Yu-qi. (2022). A Water Quality Prediction Model for Large-scale Rivers Based on Projection Pursuit Regression in the Yangtze River. Thermal Science, 26(3), 2561-2567.
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Abstract
In recent decades, the Yangtze River Basin, which carries hundreds of millions of people and a substantial economic scale, has been plagued by water quality dete-rioration, threatening considerably sustainable development. In this paper, a sample set is established based on the water quality indexes of chemical oxygen demand and dissolved oxygen obtained by week-by-week monitoring on the main stream of the Yangtze River in Panzhihua, Yueyang, Jiujiang, and Nanjing from 2006 to 2018. The twelve characteristic variables are selected by random forest technique, and the week-by-week dynamic prediction models of chemical oxygen demand and dissolved oxygen at each section of main stream are established by the projection pursuit regression, which can effectively predict the water quality dynamics of the Yangtze River main stream.
Keywords
Pollution; Water Quality; Dynamic Prediction Model; Random Forest; Projection Pursuit Regression; Yangtze River
Lindell, Michael K.; Jung, Meen Chel; Prater, Carla S.; House, Donald H. (2022). Improving Cascadia Subduction Zone Residents’ Tsunami Preparedness: Quasi-experimental Evaluation of an Evacuation Brochure. Natural Hazards, 114(1), 849-881.
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Abstract
This study surveyed 227 residents in three US Pacific Coast communities that are vulnerable to a Cascadia subduction zone tsunami. In the Brochure condition, information was presented online, followed by questions about tsunamis. Respondents in the Comparison condition received the same questionnaire by mail but did not view the brochure. Respondents in the Brochure condition had higher levels of perceived information sufficiency than those in the Comparison condition about three of the five tsunami topics. Both conditions had generally realistic expectations about most tsunami warning sources. However, they had unrealistically high expectations of being warned of a local tsunami by social sources, such as route alerting, that could not be implemented before first wave arrival. They also had unrealistically high expectations being warned of a distant tsunami by ground shaking from the source earthquake, whose epicenter would be too far away for them to feel. Moreover, respondents in both conditions expected higher levels of personal property damage and family casualties than is the case for most hazards, but their levels of negative affective response were not especially high. Overall, only 10% of the sample accessed the tsunami brochure even when sent repeated contacts and the brochure demonstrated modest effects for those who did access it. These results suggest that state and local officials should engage in repeated personalized efforts to increase coastal communities' tsunami emergency preparedness because distribution of tsunami brochures has only a modest effect on preparedness.
Keywords
Subduction Zones; Tsunamis; Emergency Management; Tsunami Warning Systems; Brochures; Preparedness; Communities; Cascadia Subduction Zone Tsunami; Hazard Warnings; Quasi-experiment; Risk Communication; Risk Information-seeking; Natural Warning Signs; Earthquake; Awareness; Responses; Behavior; Model; Wellington; Hazard; Threat; Earthquakes; Casualties; Subduction; Vulnerability; Emergency Preparedness; Emergency Warning Programs; Levels; Seismic Activity; Property Damage; Shaking; Earthquake Damage; Subduction (geology); Disaster Management; Cascadia
Celina Balderas Guzmán, PhD, is Assistant Professor in the Department of Landscape Architecture. Dr. Balderas’ research spans environmental planning, design, and science and focuses on climate adaptation to sea level rise on the coast and urban stormwater inland. On the coast, her work demonstrates specific ways that the climate adaptation actions of humans and adaptation of ecosystems are interdependent. Her work explores how these interdependencies can be maladaptive by shifting vulnerabilities to other humans or non-humans, or synergistic. Using ecological modeling, she has explored these interdependencies focusing on coastal wetlands as nature-based solutions. Her work informs cross-sectoral adaptation planning at a regional scale.
Inland, Dr. Balderas studies urban stormwater through a social-ecological lens. Using data science and case studies, her work investigates the relationship between stormwater pollution and the social, urban form, and land cover characteristics of watersheds. In past research, she developed new typologies of stormwater wetlands based on lab testing in collaboration with environmental engineers. The designs closely integrated hydraulic performance, ecological potential, and recreational opportunities into one form.
Her research has been funded by major institutions such as the National Science Foundation, National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center, UC Berkeley, and the MIT Abdul Latif Jameel Water and Food Systems Lab. She has a PhD in the Department of Landscape Architecture and Environmental Planning from the University of California, Berkeley. Previously, she obtained masters degrees in urban planning and urban design, as well as an undergraduate degree in architecture all from MIT.
Dylan Stevenson’s (Prairie Band Potawatomi descent) research examines how culture informs planning strategies and influences land relationships. More specifically, he investigates how tribal epistemologies structure notions of Indigenous futurities by centering Indigenous cultural values at the forefront of environmental stewardship and cultural preservation. He is currently working on a project researching how governments (Federal, State, and Tribal) embed cultural values in Water Resources Planning strategies, drawing from ethnographic research he conducted in the joint territory of the United Keetoowah Band of Cherokee Indians and Cherokee Nation in Oklahoma. His other research interests include ecological restoration, intangible cultural heritage, and food systems planning. Previously, Dylan has worked for public and quasi-public entities dealing with the implementation and compliance of local, state, and federal legislation in California and has forthcoming work analyzing Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) initiatives in planning programs.
Dylan earned his Ph.D. in the Department of City and Regional Planning at Cornell University. He earned his master’s degree in Planning with a concentration in Preservation and Design of the Built Environment from the University of Southern California, a bachelor’s degree in Linguistics with a minor in Native American Studies from the University of California—Davis, and an associate of arts degree in Liberal Arts from De Anza College.
Larson, Elisabeth K.; Grimm, Nancy B. (2012). Small-Scale and Extensive Hydrogeomorphic Modification and Water Redistribution in a Desert City and Implications for Regional Nitrogen Removal. Urban Ecosystems, 15(1), 71 – 85.
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Abstract
There are numerous examples of small-scale hydrogeomorphic manipulations within urban ecosystems. These modifications are motivated both by a need to handle storm drainage and by a human desire for aquatic ecosystems as places for recreation and aesthetics. In the Phoenix Arizona metropolitan area, two examples of these local modifications are artificial lakes and stormwater retention basins. Although lakes are not a natural feature of Sonoran Desert ecosystems, numerous artificial lakes are evident in the region. Retention basins are a common landscaping practice for preventing damage from rare but potentially large storm events. Here we attempt to quantify the heretofore unknown number and extent of these designed aquatic ecosystems and consider their potential impact on hydrologic landscape connectivity and regional nitrogen (N) removal. For lakes, we found that official GIS layers from local and state agencies had significant misclassifications and omissions. We used two published GIS datasets and state impoundment-permit information to determine the number, areal extent, and water source for artificial lakes. We discovered that there are 908-1,390 lakes in the Phoenix area, with the number varying according to level of aggregation. There are no existing GIS data on retention basins, so we employed drywell-permit data to estimate that there may be 10,000 retention basins in the region. Basic data on N stocks in these ecosystems are discussed within the context of the regional N budget. Accurate data on the extent and distribution of these designed ecosystems will be vital for water-resources planning and stormwater management.
Keywords
Urban; Urbanization; Retention; Phoenix
Lindell, Michael K.; Arlikatti, Sudha; Huang, Shih-kai. (2019). Immediate Behavioral Response to the June 17, 2013 Flash Floods in Uttarakhand, North India. International Journal Of Disaster Risk Reduction, 34, 129 – 146.
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Abstract
The 2013 Uttarakhand flash flood was such a surprise for those at risk that the predominant source of information for their risk was environmental cues and, secondarily, peer warnings rather than official warnings. Of those who received warnings, few received information other than the identity of the flood threat. A survey of 316 survivors found that most people's first response was to immediately evacuate but some stayed to receive additional information, confirm their warnings, or engage in evacuation preparations. Unfortunately, engaging in these milling behaviors necessarily delayed their final evacuations. Mediation analysis revealed that psychological reactions mediated the relationship between information sources and behavioral responses. Further analyses revealed that immediate evacuation and evacuation delay were both predicted best by information search and positive affect, but correlation analyses indicated that a number of other models were also plausible. Final evacuation was best predicted by immediate evacuation and, to a significantly lesser extent, household together. Overall, results suggest that the Protective Action Decision Model (PADM) should be considered a useful framework for examining household responses to flash floods in developing countries like India. It supports the conclusion that a household's first warning source is a function of two distinct detection and dissemination systems within a community-an official system and an informal system. However, it fails to capture what pre-impact emergency preparedness entails for rapid onset events in a developing country context. Further research is needed to determine the relative importance of situational and cultural characteristics in producing these observed differences.
Keywords
Risk Perception; Mental Models; Warnings; Evacuation; Disaster; Tsunami; Communication; Earthquake; Beliefs; Hazard; Flash Flood; Warning; Psychological Reactions; India
Lindell, Michael K.; Prater, Carla S.; House, Donald H. (2022). Cascadia Subduction Zone Residents’ Tsunami Evacuation Expectations. Geosciences (2076-3263), 12(5).
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Abstract
The U.S. Pacific Northwest coast must be prepared to evacuate immediately after a Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake. This requires coastal residents to understand the tsunami threat, have accurate expectations about warning sources, engage in preimpact evacuation preparedness actions, and plan (and practice) their evacuation logistics, including an appropriate transportation mode, evacuation route, and destination. A survey of 221 residents in three communities identified areas in which many coastal residents have reached adequate levels of preparedness. Moreover, residents who are not adequately prepared are willing to improve their performance in most of the areas in which they fall short. However, many respondents expect to engage in time-consuming evacuation preparations before evacuating. Additionally, their estimates of evacuation travel time might be inaccurate because only 28-52% had practiced their evacuation routes. These results indicate that more coastal residents should prepare grab-and-go kits to speed their departure, as well as practice evacuation preparation and evacuation travel to test the accuracy of these evacuation time estimates. Overall, these results, together with recommendations for overcoming them, can guide CSZ emergency managers in methods of improving hazard awareness and education programs. In addition, these data can guide transportation engineers' evacuation analyses and evacuation plans.
Keywords
Subduction Zones; Tsunamis; Tsunami Warning Systems; Civilian Evacuation; Earthquake Zones; Transportation Engineering; Expectation (psychology); Residents; Cascadia Subduction Zone; Evacuation Preparedness; Evacuation Time Estimates; Tsunami; Natural Warning Signs; Coastal Communities; American-samoa; New-zealand; Earthquake; Behavior; Preparedness; Awareness; Japan; Washington; Earthquakes; Transportation; Evacuations & Rescues; Travel Time; Subduction; Surveying; Evacuation; Travel; Coasts; Emergency Warning Programs; Seismic Activity; Emergency Preparedness; Perceptions; Traveltime; Coastal Zone; Peers; Estimates; Logistics; Evacuation Routing; Subduction (geology); Households; United States--us; Pacific Northwest; Cascadia
Bogus, Susan M.; Migliaccio, Giovanni C.; Jin, Ruoyu. (2013). Study of the Relationship between Procurement Duration and Project Performance in Design-Build Projects: Comparison between Water/Wastewater and Transportation Sectors. Journal Of Management In Engineering, 29(4), 382 – 391.
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Abstract
Previous studies on building, industrial, and transportation projects found that projects delivered using design-build tend to perform better than projects delivered with the traditional design-bid-build method. However, performance of design-build projects is affected by various factors, with procurement-related factors being among the most influential. Whereas other aspects of procurement have been largely investigated, the effect of procurement duration on project performance has been studied only for design-build transportation projects. In addition, few studies have focused specifically on the delivery of water/wastewater projects. This paper includes the results of a study on the relationship between procurement duration and performance of water/wastewater design-build projects. The study methodology was based on regression analysis of data from a sample of water/wastewater design-build projects. The results show that unlike the transportation sector, procurement duration has little effect on either schedule or cost performance in the water/wastewater sector. Likely reasons for this difference were then explored through a content analysis of procurement documents. (C) 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.
Keywords
Design Engineering; Procurement; Project Management; Regression Analysis; Transportation; Waste Management; Procurement Documents; Schedule Performance; Cost Performance; Design-build Transportation Projects; Procurement-related Factors; Design-bid-build Method; Water-wastewater Sectors; Transportation Sectors; Project Performance; Procurement Duration; Design/build; Project Delivery; Water; Wastewater
Wang, Kaiwen; Liu, Xiaomang; Li, Yuqi; Yang, Xiaohua; Bai, Peng; Liu, Changming; Chen, Fei. (2019). Deriving a Long-Term Pan Evaporation Reanalysis Dataset for Two Chinese Pan Types. Journal Of Hydrology, 579.
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Abstract
A long-term continuous and consistent pan evaporation (E-pan) reanalysis dataset will augment the analysis of E-pan distributions when the observation network is discontinuous or inconsistent, and assist in the evaluation of the outputs of General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Land Surface Models (LSMs). From the 1950s to early 2000s, China had a continuous observation of the D20 pan, but this was replaced by the 601B pan across China around 2002, and thus the E-pan observation network became discontinuous and inconsistent. This study developed a long-term monthly, 0.05 degrees, continuous and consistent reanalysis dataset for both D20 and 6018 pans covering mainland China throughout 1960-2014, based on meteorological data homogenization and interpolation and E-pan assimilation. The PenPan-V3 model used inE(pan) assimilation was successfully validated by observations at 767 and 591 stations for D20 and 601B pans, respectively. Comprehensively considering the physical influence of elevation, radiation, wind speed, humidity, and air temperature, the average annual and seasonal gridded E-pan reanalyses show significant spatial dependent on proximity to the ocean and latitude, consistent with previous studies. The reanalysis dataset can be used to analyze E-pan distributions across China, including the areas without observations, and to estimate the representativeness of E-pan to atmospheric evaporative demand. The dataset has been released in two cloud servers in China and the United States, and it will continue to be maintained and updated.
Keywords
General Circulation Model; Evaporation (meteorology); Atmospheric Temperature; Wind Speed; China; Long-term Continuous And Consistent Dataset; Pan Evaporation Reanalysis Dataset; Representativeness To Atmospheric Evaporative Demand; Maximal T-test; Reference Evapotranspiration; Climate Data; Energy-balance; Reference Crop; Trends; Water; Model; Demand; General Circulation Models; Air Temperature; Data Collection; Evaporation; Evaporative Demand; Humidity; Latitude; Meteorological Data; United States
Horn, Erin; Proksch, Gundula. (2022). Symbiotic And Regenerative Sustainability Frameworks: Moving Towards Circular City Implementation. Frontiers In Built Environment, 7.
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Abstract
Growing in popularity, the circular city framework is at the leading-edge of a larger and older transitional dialogue which envisions regenerative, circular, and symbiotic systems as the future of urban sustainability. The need for more research supporting the implementation of such concepts has been often noted in literature. To help address this gap, this holistic review assesses a range of pertinent sustainability frameworks as a platform to identify actionable strategies which can be leveraged to support and implement circular city goals. This assessment is grounded in a holistic overview of related frameworks across interdisciplinary and scalar domains including circular city, the food-water-energy nexus, circular economy, bioeconomy, industrial symbiosis, regenerative design, and others. Building on these interrelationships, the applied strategies espoused within these publications are synthesized and assessed in the context of circular city implementation. From an initial 250 strategies identified in literature, thirty-four general implementation strategies across six thematic areas are distinguished and discussed, finding strong overlaps in implementation strategies between frameworks, and opportunities to further develop and harness these synergies to advance circular city toward sustainable urban futures.
Keywords
Circular City; Implementation Strategies; Literature Review; Circular Economy; Fwe-nexus; Regenerative Design; Systems Integration; Environmental Assessment; Rooftop Greenhouses; Anaerobic-digestion; Urban Agriculture; Built Environment; Waste Management; Climate-change; Carbon Nexus; Food Nexus; Economy