Min, Y., & Ko, I. (2023). Causal effects of place, people, and process on rooftop solar adoption through Bayesian inference. Energy (Oxford), 285, 129510-. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2023.129510.
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Abstract
While previous studies have established correlations between rooftop solar adoption and various factors, a comprehensive understanding of the underlying causal mechanisms has been limited by the intricate interrelationships among these variables. To address this gap, we propose a Bayesian causal inference approach that examines the interplay of various factors influencing rooftop solar adoption across multiple cities. By employing post-phenomenology, we uncover latent variables encompassing place, people, and process, shedding light on how they shape public responses to emerging energy technologies. We analyze the causal effects of these factors and highlight the significance of housing and built environment attributes in determining energy expenditure and rooftop solar adoption, emphasizing the need for policies that target energy equity. Additionally, we reveal the influence of neighborhood spillovers on adoption, indicating the role of social norms and information diffusion. The observed city-level variability underscores the importance of local contexts and location-specific factors in the adoption process. Furthermore, we highlight the need to consider causal relationships and the indirect effects of people-related attributes mediated through place-related attributes. Overall, these findings contribute to a deeper understanding of the factors shaping rooftop solar adoption via causal modeling and underscore the importance of tailored policies to promote adoption.
Keywords
Spillover effects; Energy equity; Post-phenomenology; Ignorability; Factor analysis; Clean energy; Photovoltaic systems; Overcoming barriers; Technology adoption; Decision-making; Energy justice; United-States; Vulnerability; Diffusion; Deployment; Responses
Launching the Inspire Fund: An early step for CBE’s Office of Research “For a small college, CBE has a broad range of research paradigms, from history and arts, to social science and engineering.” — Carrie Sturts Dossick, Associate Dean of Research Upon taking on the role of Associate Dean of Research, Carrie Sturts Dossick, professor in the Department of Construction Management, undertook listening sessions to learn about the research needs of faculty, staff and students across the College of Built…
The Energy and Sustainability in Construction (ESC) Lab promotes energy efficiency and sustainability (EES) in the built environment through the development of sustainable design, innovative project delivery practices, and risk-based financial models for EES investments. Our work focuses on integrating advanced financial analysis, project development, and management strategies to enhance the delivery of energy-efficient buildings and sustainable infrastructure.
Through innovative solutions, the ESC Lab addresses complex challenges in current project development practices that slow the transition toward a more sustainable society. Our research spans a wide range of critical areas, including commercial energy retrofits, community solar projects, green datacenters, healthy commercial buildings, and electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure. By tackling these pressing issues, the ESC Lab is at the forefront of driving transformative changes in the built environment.
Financial and Management Questions that Lead to Sustainable Solutions
The ESC Lab targets to help project stakeholders evaluate the risks and rewards of energy efficiency and sustainability (EES) investments by addressing some of the industry’s most pressing financial and management challenges, including:
- What policies, financing mechanisms, and project delivery systems best support the advancement of EES?
- How can we categorize and accurately model the unique risks associated with EES investments?
- What analytical modeling methods can be applied to ensure the effective implementation of EES measures in projects?
- How can we optimize investment strategies to balance environmental benefits with financial returns?
- What best practices can enhance stakeholder engagement and collaboration to drive successful EES project outcomes?
Pursuing Innovative Solutions to Energy Efficiency and Sustainability
The ESC Lab has developed a series of analytical models and evaluation practices that facilitate the effective delivery of energy-efficient commercial buildings and sustainable infrastructure, including:
- Cost and power demand model for electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure
- Conceptual cost and carbon estimating model for mass timber structure
- Energy-Related Risk Management in Integrated Project Delivery
- Phased Investment for Energy Retrofit (PIER)
- Energy Retrofit Loan Analysis Model (ERLAM)
- An optimized portfolio analysis for community-based photovoltaic investment
ESC Research Funders and Selected Projects:
- UW Clean Energy Institute: “Equitable Public Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Expansion—From the Tribal Community Perspective”
- King County Metro–Sound Transit–Seattle City Light: “Electrified Mobility Hubs: A Blueprint for the Future of Transit Infrastructure”
- UW Global Innovation Fund: “Mitigating Effects of Future Pandemics with the Use of Risk-Responsive Building Codes: A Developing Country Framework”
- King County Metro: “Evaluation of a Public/Private Partnership (P3) Model for Bus Base Electrification”
- UW CBE INSPIRE Fund: “Investigating the Health Requirements and Risk-Responsiveness Criteria in Office Building Codes for Mitigating COVID-19 and Future Airborne Diseases”
- UW CBE INSPIRE Fund: “Investigating Energy Justice in Washington State in Terms of Photovoltaic (PV) Systems and Electric Vehicle (EV) Chargers”
- Google: “A Proposal to Grow a Greener Data Center with Google”
- UW Population Health: “Economic Impact of Office Workplace Transformation due to COVID-19: How Can Buildings and Surrounding Areas Recover?”
- UW Transportation: “UW Transportation Electrification and Solar Study”
- RERI–LBNL–DOE: “Effect of Energy Benchmarking and Disclosure on Office Building Marketability”
- Pankow–Skanska–Oregon DEQ: “Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) for Low Carbon Construction Commercial Office Building MEP & Interiors Data”
- BE Innovation: “Impact of Energy Benchmarking and Disclosure on the Performance of Office Buildings”
Selected Journal Publications:
- Min, Y. and Lee, H.W. (2024). “Adoption Inequalities and Causal Relationship between Residential Electric Vehicle Chargers and Heat Pumps.” ASCE Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 04024025.
- Min, Y. and Lee, H.W. (2024). “Quantifying Clean Energy Justice: Impact of Solarize Programs on Rooftop Solar Disparities in the Pacific Northwest.” Sustainable Cities and Society, 105287.
- Shang, L., Dermisi, S., Choe, Y., Lee, H.W., and Min, Y. (2023). “Assessing the Office Building Marketability Before and After the Implementation of Energy Benchmarking and Disclosure Policies – Lessons Learned from Major US Cities.” Sustainability, 15(11), 8883.
- Min, Y. and Lee, H.W. (2023). “Characterization of Vulnerable Communities in Terms of the Benefits and Burdens of the Energy Transition in Pacific Northwest Cities.” Journal of Cleaner Production, 135949.
- Min, Y., Lee, H.W., and Hurvitz, P.M. (2023). “Clean Energy Justice: Different Adoption Characteristics of Underserved Communities in Rooftop Solar and Electric Vehicle Chargers in Seattle.” Energy Research and Social Science, 96(1), 102931.
- Su, S., Li, X., Zhu, C., Lu, Y., and Lee, H.W. (2021). “Dynamic Life Cycle Assessment: A Review of Research for Temporal Variations in Life Cycle Assessment Studies.” Environmental Engineering Science, 38(11).
- Droguett, B. X. R., Huang, M., Lee, H.W., Simonen, K., and Ditto, J. (2020). “Mechanical, Electrical, Plumbing and Tenant Improvements Over the Building Lifetime: Estimating Material Quantities and Embodied Carbon for Climate Change Mitigation.” Energy and Buildings, 226, 110324.
- Ho, C., Lee, H.W., and Gambatese, J. (2020). “Application of Prevention through Design (PtD) to Improve the Safety of Solar Installations on Small Buildings.” Safety Science, 125, 104633.
- Gomez Cunya, L.A., Fardhosseini, M.S., Lee, H.W., and Choi, K. (2020). “Analyzing Investments in Flood Protection Structures: A Real Options Approach.” International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 43(2), 101377.
- Shang, L., Lee H.W., Dermisi, S., and Choe, Y., (2020). “Impact of Energy Benchmarking and Disclosure Policy on Office Buildings.” Journal of Cleaner Production, 250, 119500.
- Shakouri, M., Lee, H.W., and Kim, Y.-W. (2017). “A Probabilistic Portfolio-based Model for Financial Valuation of Community Solar.” Applied Energy, 191(1), 709-726.
- Shakouri, M. and Lee, H.W. (2016). “Mean-Variance Portfolio Analysis Data for Optimizing Community-based Photovoltaic Investment.” Data in Brief, 6(1), 840-842.\
Current and Former Lab Members:
- Abdul-Razak Alidu
- Byungju Jeon
- Chitika Vasudeva
- Yohan Min
- Matt Wiggins
- Novi T.I. Bramono
- Yong-Hyuk Oh
- Chuou Zhang
- Jonghyeob Kim
- Wenqi Zhu
- Julie Knorr
- Zhila Mohammady