Chen, Chen; Lindell, Michael K.; Wang, Haizhong. (2021). Tsunami Preparedness and Resilience in the Cascadia Subduction Zone: A Multistage Model of Expected Evacuation Decisions and Mode Choice. International Journal Of Disaster Risk Reduction, 59.
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Abstract
Physical scientists have estimated that the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) has as much as a 25% chance to produce a M9.0 earthquake and tsunami in the next 50 years, but few studies have used survey data to assess household risk perceptions, emergency preparedness, and evacuation intentions. To understand these phenomena, this study conducted a mail-based household questionnaire using the Protective Action Decision Model (PADM) as a guide to collect 483 responses from two coastal communities in the CSZ: Crescent City, CA and Coos Bay, OR. We applied multistage regression models to assess the effects of critical PADM variables. The results showed that three psychological variables (risk perception, perceived hazard knowledge, and evacuation mode efficacy) were associated with some demographic variables and experience variables. Evacuation intention and evacuation mode choice are associated with those psychological variables but not with demographic variables. Contrary to previous studies, location and experience had no direct impact on evacuation intention or mode choice. We also analyzed expected evacuation mode compliance and the potential of using micro-mobility during tsunami response. This study provides empirical evidence of tsunami preparedness and intentions to support interdisciplinary evacuation modeling, tsunami hazard education, community disaster preparedness, and resilience plans.
Keywords
False Discovery Rate; American-samoa; Earthquake; Washington; Behavior; Oregon; Wellington; Responses; Disaster; Tsunami Evacuation; Cascadia Subduction Zone; Risk Perception
Lin, Lin; Chen, Xueming (Jimmy); Moudon, Anne Vernez. (2021). Measuring the Urban Forms of Shanghai’s City Center and Its New Districts: A Neighborhood-Level Comparative Analysis. Sustainability, 13(15).
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Abstract
Rapid urban expansion has radically transformed the city centers and the new districts of Chinese cities. Both areas have undergone unique redevelopment and development over the past decades, generating unique urban forms worthy of study. To date, few studies have investigated development patterns and land use intensities at the neighborhood level. The present study aims to fill the gap and compare the densities of different types of developments and the spatial compositions of different commercial uses at the neighborhood level. We captured the attributes of their built environment that support instrumental activities of daily living of 710 neighborhoods centered on the public elementary schools of the entire Shanghai municipality using application programming interfaces provided in Baidu Map services. The 200 m neighborhood provided the best fit to capture the variations of the built environment. Overall, city center neighborhoods had significantly higher residential densities and housed more daily routine destinations than their counterparts in the new districts. Unexpectedly, however, the total length of streets was considerably smaller in city-center neighborhoods, likely reflecting the prominence of the wide multilane vehicular roads surrounding large center city redevelopment projects. The findings point to convergence between the city center's urban forms and that of the new districts.
Keywords
Quantifying Spatiotemporal Patterns; Fast-food Restaurants; Instrumental Activities; Physical-activity; Chinese Cities; Land; Schools; Redevelopment; Expansion; Transformation; Built Environment; Planning; Neighborhood; Urban Form; Shanghai
Zou, Tianqi; Aemmer, Zack; Mackenzie, Don; Laberteaux, Ken. (2022). A Framework for Estimating Commute Accessibility and Adoption of Ridehailing Services Under Functional Improvements from Vehicle Automation. Journal Of Transport Geography, 102.
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Abstract
This paper develops an analytical framework to estimate commute accessibility and adoption of various ridehailing service concepts across the US by synthesizing individual commute trips using national Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics Origin-Destination Employment Statistics (LODES) data. Focusing on potential improvements in cost and time that could be enabled by vehicle automation, we use this modeling framework to simulate a lower-price autonomous service (e.g., 50% or 75% lower) with variable wait times and implementation levels (solo, pooled, and first/last mile transit connections services, alone or in combination) to determine how they might affect adoption rates. These results are compared across metrics of accessibility and trip density, as well as socioeconomic factors such as household income. We find - unsurprisingly - that major cities (e.g. New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago) support the highest adoption rates for ridehailing services. Decreases in price tend to increase market share and accessibility. The effect of a decrease in price is more drastic for lower income groups. The proposed method for synthesizing trips using the LODES contributes to current travel demand forecasting methods and the proposed analytic framework can be flexibly implemented with any other mode choice model, extended to non-commute trips, or applied to different levels of geographic aggregation.
Keywords
Choice Of Transportation; Demand Forecasting; Poor People; Adoption; Price Cutting; Metropolis; Employment Statistics; Los Angeles (calif.); New York (state); Chicago (ill.); Accessibility; Autonomous Vehicles; New Mobility Services; Ridehailing; Travel Demand; Preferences
El-Anwar, Omar; El-Rayes, Khaled; Elnashai, Amr. (2010). Minimization of Socioeconomic Disruption for Displaced Populations Following Disasters. Disasters, 34(3), 865 – 883.
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Abstract
In the aftermath of catastrophic natural disasters such as hurricanes, tsunamis and earthquakes, emergency management agencies come under intense pressure to provide temporary housing to address the large-scale displacement of the vulnerable population. Temporary housing is essential to enable displaced families to reestablish their normal daily activities until permanent housing solutions can be provided. Temporary housing decisions, however, have often been criticized for their failure to fulfil the socioeconomic needs of the displaced families within acceptable budgets. This paper presents the development of (1) socioeconomic disruption metrics that are capable of quantifying the socioeconomic impacts of temporary housing decisions on displaced populations; and (2) a robust multi-objective optimization model for temporary housing that is capable of simultaneously minimizing socioeconomic disruptions and public expenditures in an effective and efficient manner. A large-scale application example is optimized to illustrate the use of the model and demonstrate its capabilities ingenerating optimal plans for realistic temporary housing problems.
Keywords
Natural Disasters; Hurricanes; Disaster Relief; Temporary Housing; Tsunamis; Multi-objective Optimization; Post-disaster Recovery; Social Welfare; Socioeconomic Disruption
Kim, Yong-Woo; Han, Seungheon; Shin, Sungwon; Choi, Kunhee. (2011). A Case Study of Activity-Based Costing in Allocating Rebar Fabrication Costs to Projects. Construction Management And Economics, 29(5), 449 – 461.
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Abstract
How to improve cost allocation for reinforced steel bar (rebar) is an ongoing topic of debate among construction manufacturers and contractors. Traditionally, many fabrication shops have used a single overhead-cost pool accounting system. However, a new costing method, activity-based costing (ABC), may provide more advantages than the traditional system. In this case study, a single overhead-cost pool system is compared with the ABC method to demonstrate how ABC improves cost allocation and provides other benefits. The case study findings indicate that ABC provides such benefits as (1) accurate manufacturing costs; (2) cost information on processes; and (3) information on cost drivers. This paper also bridges the construction and cost accounting literature. Our study contributes to the construction management literature by offering a different cost allocation method to refine fabrication costs assigned to projects. The findings are expected to serve as a reference for industry professionals who recognize the shortcomings of a traditional single overheadcost pool system and are in need of a more accurate costing system. © 2011 Taylor & Francis.
Keywords
Bridges; Costs; Fabrication; Lakes; Project Management; Rebar; Accounting System; Activity Based Costing; Construction Management; Fabrication Shops; Industry Professionals; Manufacturing Cost; Overhead Costs; Traditional Systems
Maliszewski, Paul J.; Larson, Elisabeth K.; Perrings, Charles. (2012). Environmental Determinants of Unscheduled Residential Outages in the Electrical Power Distribution of Phoenix, Arizona. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 99, 161 – 171.
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Abstract
The sustainability of power infrastructures depends on their reliability. One test of the reliability of an infrastructure is its ability to function reliably in extreme environmental conditions. Effective planning for reliable electrical systems requires knowledge of unscheduled outage sources, including environmental and social factors. Despite many studies on the vulnerability of infrastructure systems, the effect of interacting environmental and infrastructural conditions on the reliability of urban residential power distribution remains an understudied problem. We model electric interruptions using outage data between the years of 2002 and 2005 across Phoenix, Arizona. Consistent with perceptions of increased exposure, overhead power lines positively correlate with unscheduled outages indicating underground cables are more resistant to failure. In the presence of overhead lines, the interaction between birds and vegetation as well as proximity to nearest desert areas and lakes are positive driving factors explaining much of the variation in unscheduled outages. Closeness to the nearest arterial road and the interaction between housing square footage and temperature are also significantly positive. A spatial error model was found to provide the best fit to the data. Resultant findings are useful for understanding and improving electrical infrastructure reliability. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords
Determinants (mathematics); Electric Power Distribution; Reliability In Engineering; Social Factors; Temperature Effect; Phoenix (ariz.); Arizona; Distribution; Electricity; Interruption; Outage; Reliability; System Reliability Assessment; Maintenance; Overhead; Model; Interruptions; Regression; Flashover; Failures; Performance; Hurricanes
El-Anwar, Omar. (2013). Maximising the Net Social Benefit of the Construction of Post-Disaster Alternative Housing Projects. Disasters, 37(3), 489 – 515.
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Abstract
The widespread destruction that follows large-scale natural disasters, such as Hurricane Katrina in August 2005, challenges the efficacy of traditional temporary housing methods in providing adequate solutions to housing needs. Recognising these housing challenges, the Congress of the United States allocated, in 2006, USD 400 million to the Department of Homeland Security to support Alternative Housing Pilot Programs, which are intended to explore the possibilities of providing permanent and affordable housing to displaced families instead of traditional temporary housing. This paper presents a new methodology and optimisation model to identify the optimal configurations of post-shelter housing arrangements to maximise the overall net socioeconomic benefit. The model is capable of quantifying and optimising the impacts of substituting temporary housing with alternative housing on the social and economic welfare of displaced families as well as the required additional costs of doing so. An application example is presented to illustrate the use of the model and its capabilities.
Keywords
Public Housing; Temporary Housing; Hurricane Katrina, 2005; Natural Disasters; Socioeconomic Factors; Mathematical Models; Mathematical Optimization; United States; Alternative Housing Pilot Programs; Optimisation; Socioeconomic Benefit; Disasters
Berke, Ethan M.; Vernez-Moudon, Anne. (2014). Built Environment Change: A Framework to Support Health-Enhancing Behaviour through Environmental Policy and Health Research. Journal Of Epidemiology And Community Health, 68(6), 586 – 590.
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Abstract
As research examining the effect of the built environment on health accelerates, it is critical for health and planning researchers to conduct studies and make recommendations in the context of a robust theoretical framework. We propose a framework for built environment change (BEC) related to improving health. BEC consists of elements of the built environment, how people are exposed to and interact with them perceptually and functionally, and how this exposure may affect health-related behaviours. Integrated into this framework are the legal and regulatory mechanisms and instruments that are commonly used to effect change in the built environment. This framework would be applicable to medical research as well as to issues of policy and community planning.
Keywords
Geographic Information-systems; Physical-activity; Obesity; Place; Associations; Walkability; Risk; Care
Hurvitz, Philip M.; Moudon, Anne V.; Kang, Bumjoon; Fesinmeyer, Megan D.; Saelens, Brian E. (2014). How Far from Home? The Locations of Physical Activity in an Urban US Setting. Preventive Medicine, 69, 181 – 186.
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Abstract
Little is known about where physical activity (PA) occurs, or whether different demographic groups accumulate PA in different locations. Method. Objective data on PA and location from 611 adults over 7 days were collected in King County, WA in 2008-2009. The relative amounts of time spent in sedentary-to-low and moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA) were quantified at three locations: home (1666 m). Differences in MVPA by demographics and location were examined. The percent of daily time in MVPA was estimated using a mixed model adjusted for location, sex, age, race/ethnicity, employment, education, BMI, and income. Results. Most MVPA time occurred in nonhome locations, and disproportionately near home; this location was associated with 16.46% greater time in MVPA, compared to at-home activity (p< 0.001), whereas more time spent at away locations was associated with 3.74% greater time in MVPA (p< 0.001). Location was found to be a predictor of MVPA independent of demographic factors. Conclusion. A large proportion of MVPA time is spent at near locations, corresponding to the home neighborhood studied in previous PA research. Away locations also host time spent in MVPA and should be the focus of future research. (C) 2014 Elsevier Inc All rights reserved.
Keywords
Accelerometer Data; Built Environment; United-states; Neighborhood Walkability; Exercise Intensity; Time Use; Land-use; Walking; Health; Behavior; Physical Activity; Objective Measurement; Gps; Accelerometry; Gis
Zhang, Su; Migliaccio, Giovanni C.; Zandbergen, Paul A.; Guindani, Michele. (2014). Empirical Assessment of Geographically Based Surface Interpolation Methods for Adjusting Construction Cost Estimates by Project Location. Journal Of Construction Engineering And Management, 140(6).
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Keywords
Construction; Interpolation; Project Management; Geographically Based Surface Interpolation Methods; Construction Cost Estimates; Project Location; Construction Projects; Proximity-based Interpolation; Location Factor; Proximity-based Method; Global Spatial Autocorrelation; Cost Index Databases; Cost Estimators; Spatial Interpolation Techniques; Conditional Nearest Neighbor; Cnn; Inverse Distance Weighted; Idw Methods; Spatial Prediction Models; Distance Weighted Interpolation; Spatial Interpolation; Kriging Method; Precipitation; Temperature