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Department: College of Built Environments

Perceptions And Expected Immediate Reactions To Tornado Warning Polygons

Lindell, Michael K.; Huang, Shih-kai; Wei, Hung-lung; Samuelson, Charles D. (2016). Perceptions And Expected Immediate Reactions To Tornado Warning Polygons. Natural Hazards, 80(1), 683 – 707.

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Abstract

To provide people with more specific information about tornado threats, the National Weather Service has replaced its county-wide warnings with smaller warning polygons that more specifically indicate the risk area. However, tornado warning polygons do not have a standardized definition regarding tornado strike probabilities (p (s)) so it is unclear how warning recipients interpret them. To better understand this issue, 155 participants responded to 15 hypothetical warning polygons. After viewing each polygon, they rated the likelihood of a tornado striking their location and the likelihood that they would take nine different response actions ranging from continuing normal activities to getting in a car and driving somewhere safer. The results showed participants inferred that the p (s) was highest at the polygon's centroid, lower just inside the edges of the polygon, still lower (but not zero) just outside the edges of the polygon, and lowest in locations beyond that. Moreover, higher p (s) values were associated with lower expectations of continuing normal activities and higher expectations of seeking information from social sources (but not environmental cues) and higher expectations of seeking shelter (but not evacuating in their cars). These results indicate that most people make some errors in their p (s) judgments but are likely to respond appropriately to the p (s) they infer from the warning polygons. Overall, the findings from this study and other research can help meteorologists to better understand how people interpret the uncertainty associated with warning polygons and, thus, improve tornado warning systems.

Keywords

Interrater Agreement; Protective Action; Decision-making; Evacuation; Risk; Uncertainty; Residents; Disaster; Probabilities; Preparedness; Tornado Warning Polygons; Risk Perceptions; Protective Actions

The Association between Park Visitation and Physical Activity Measured with Accelerometer, GPS, and Travel Diary

Stewart, Orion T.; Moudon, Anne Vernez; Fesinmeyer, Megan D.; Zhou, Chuan; Saelens, Brian E. (2016). The Association between Park Visitation and Physical Activity Measured with Accelerometer, GPS, and Travel Diary. Health & Place, 38, 82 – 88.

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Abstract

Public parks are promoted as places that support physical activity (PA), but evidence of how park visitation contributes to overall PA is limited. This study observed adults living in the Seattle metropolitan area (n=671) for one week using accelerometer, GPS, and travel diary. Park visits, measured both objectively (GPS) and subjectively (travel diary), were temporally linked to accelerometer-measured PA. Park visits occurred at 1.4 per person-week. Participants who visited parks at least once (n=308) had an adjusted average of 14.3 (95% Cl: 8.9, 19.6) min more daily PA than participants who did not visit a park. Even when park-related activity was excluded, park visitors still obtained more minutes of daily PA than non-visitors. Park visitation contributes to a more active lifestyle, but is not solely responsible for it. Parks may best serve to complement broader public health efforts to encourage PA. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Keywords

Physical Activity; Accelerometers; Geographic Information Systems; Park Use; Public Health; Built Environment; Gis; Leisure; Recreation; Substitution; Sedentary Behavior; Public-health; Accessibility; Prevention

Review of Health Impact Assessments Informing Agriculture, Food, and Nutrition Policies, Programs, and Projects in the United States

Cowling, Krycia; Lindberg, Ruth; Dannenberg, Andrew L.; Neff, Roni A.; Pollack, Keshia M. (2017). Review of Health Impact Assessments Informing Agriculture, Food, and Nutrition Policies, Programs, and Projects in the United States. Journal Of Agriculture Food Systems And Community Development, 7(3), 139 – 157.

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Abstract

Policies, programs, and projects related to agriculture, food, and nutrition can significantly affect public health. Health impact assessment (HIA) is one tool that can be used to improve awareness of the health effects of decisions outside the health sector, and increasing the use of HIA for agriculture, food, and nutrition decisions presents an opportunity to improve public health. This study identifies and reviews all HIAs completed in the United States on agriculture, food, and nutrition topics. Studies were identified from HIA databases, an Internet search, and expert consultation. Key characteristics were extracted from each study: type of decision assessed, location, level of jurisdiction, lead organization, methods of analysis, and recommendations. Twenty-five eligible HIAs that were conducted between 2007 and 2016 address topics such as regulations on land use for agriculture; food and beverage taxes; and developing grocery stores in food deserts. These HIAs have predominantly supported policy, as opposed to program or project, decisions. Four case studies are presented to illustrate in detail the HIA process and the mechanisms through which HIA findings affected policy decisions. Among other influences, these four HIAs affected the language of legislation and provided guidance for federal regulations. These examples demonstrate several findings: appropriate timing is critical for findings to have an influence; diverse stakeholder involvement generates support for recommendations; and the clear communication of feasible recommendations is highly important. There is substantial scope to increase the use of HIA in the agriculture, food, and nutrition sectors. Challenges include the paucity of monitoring and evaluation of HIAs' effects on health outcomes, and the limited funding available to conduct HIAs. Opportunities include integrating HIAs and community food assessments, and more widely sharing HIA findings to inform related decisions in different jurisdictions and to increase support for additional HIAs that address the food system.

Keywords

Environments; Obesity; Health Impact Assessment; Policy; Food; Nutrition; Agriculture

Stakeholder Management in Long-Term Complex Megaconstruction Projects: The Saemangeum Project

Park, Hyoungbae; Kim, Kyeongseok; Kim, Yong-woo; Kim, Hyoungkwan. (2017). Stakeholder Management in Long-Term Complex Megaconstruction Projects: The Saemangeum Project. Journal Of Management In Engineering, 33(4).

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Abstract

This paper identifies 31 critical success factors (CSFs) and suggests a framework for effective stakeholder management in long-term complex megaconstruction (LCM) projects that require more than 10 years for multipurpose development. The results of a survey on the prioritization of these 31 CSFs reveal that LCM projects involve more stakeholders than do general construction projects and require a correspondingly wider range of changes during each project. To identify more systematic and strategic approaches to stakeholder management in LCM projects, a framework was developed through factor analysis and focus-group interviews with project management experts. The framework is composed of the following five agendas: clear understanding of stakeholders, clear definition of the project, effective communication, responding to environmental changes, and social cooperation. The analysis results show that LCM projects require a stronger emphasis on responding to environmental changes and social cooperation. These results, along with the CSF priorities, reveal the necessity of taking customized approaches to LCM projects. The results of this analysis are expected to help LCM project managers effectively manage stakeholders. (C) 2017 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Keywords

Construction; Environmental Management; Project Management; Strategic Planning; Social Cooperation; Environmental Changes; Strategic Approaches; Construction Projects; Saemangeum Project; Long-term Complex Megaconstruction Projects; Stakeholder Management; Critical Success Factors (csfs); Long-term Complex Megaconstruction (lcm) Projects

The Anthropocene Generalized: Evolution of Exo-Civilizations and Their Planetary Feedback

Frank, A.; Carroll-Nellenback, Jonathan; Alberti, M.; Kleidon, A. (2018). The Anthropocene Generalized: Evolution of Exo-Civilizations and Their Planetary Feedback. Astrobiology, 18(5), 503 – 518.

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Abstract

We present a framework for studying generic behaviors possible in the interaction between a resource-harvesting technological civilization (an exo-civilization) and the planetary environment in which it evolves. Using methods from dynamical systems theory, we introduce and analyze a suite of simple equations modeling a population which consumes resources for the purpose of running a technological civilization and the feedback those resources drive on the state of the host planet. The feedbacks can drive the planet away from the initial state the civilization originated in and into domains that are detrimental to its sustainability. Our models conceptualize the problem primarily in terms of feedbacks from the resource use onto the coupled planetary systems. In addition, we also model the population growth advantages gained via the harvesting of these resources. We present three models of increasing complexity: (1) Civilization-planetary interaction with a single resource; (2) Civilization-planetary interaction with two resources each of which has a different level of planetary system feedback; (3) Civilization-planetary interaction with two resources and nonlinear planetary feedback (i.e., runaways). All three models show distinct classes of exo-civilization trajectories. We find smooth entries into long-term, sustainable steady states. We also find population booms followed by various levels of die-off. Finally, we also observe rapid collapse trajectories for which the population approaches n=0. Our results are part of a program for developing an Astrobiology of the Anthropocene in which questions of sustainability, centered on the coupled Earth-system, can be seen in their proper astronomical/planetary context. We conclude by discussing the implications of our results for both the coupled Earth system and for the consideration of exo-civilizations across cosmic history.

Keywords

Anthropocene Epoch; Holocene Epoch; Climatology; Earth System Science; Climate Change; Earth (planet); Biosphere; Easter-island; Earth; Population; Anthropocene; Astrobiology; Civilization; Dynamical System Theory; Exoplanets; Population Dynamics

Optimal Composition of Hybrid/Blended Real Estate Portfolios

Ametefe, Frank Kwakutse; Devaney, Steven; Stevenson, Simon Andrew. (2019). Optimal Composition of Hybrid/Blended Real Estate Portfolios. Journal Of Property Investment & Finance, 37(1), 20 – 41.

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Abstract

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to establish an optimum mix of liquid, publicly traded assets that may be added to a real estate portfolio, such as those held by open-ended funds, to provide the liquidity required by institutional investors, such as UK defined contribution pension funds. This is with the objective of securing liquidity while not unduly compromising the risk-return characteristics of the underlying asset class. This paper considers the best mix of liquid assets at different thresholds for a liquid asset allocation, with the performance then evaluated against that of a direct real estate benchmark index. Design/methodology/approach The authors employ a mean-tracking error optimisation approach in determining the optimal combination of liquid assets that can be added to a real estate fund portfolio. The returns of the optimised portfolios are compared to the returns for portfolios that employ the use of either cash or listed real estate alone as a liquidity buffer. Multivariate generalised autoregressive models are used along with rolling correlations and tracking errors to gauge the effectiveness of the various portfolios in tracking the performance of the benchmark index. Findings The results indicate that applying formal optimisation techniques leads to a considerable improvement in the ability of the returns from blended real estate portfolios to track the underlying real estate market. This is the case at a number of different thresholds for the liquid asset allocation and in cases where a minimum return requirement is imposed.

Keywords

Hedge-fund-replication; Volatility Dynamics; Tracking Error; Stock; Performance; Property; Returns; Markets; Private; Model; Open-ended Funds; Real Estate Liquidity; Portfolio Optimization; Blended Real Estate; Defined Contribution Pensions

Spatial Relationships between Urban Structures and Air Pollution in Korea

Jung, Meen Chel; Park, Jaewoo; Kim, Sunghwan. (2019). Spatial Relationships between Urban Structures and Air Pollution in Korea. Sustainability, 11(2).

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Abstract

Urban structures facilitate human activities and interactions but are also a main source of air pollutants; hence, investigating the relationship between urban structures and air pollution is crucial. The lack of an acceptable general model poses significant challenges to investigations on the underlying mechanisms, and this gap fuels our motivation to analyze the relationships between urban structures and the emissions of four air pollutants, including nitrogen oxides, sulfur oxides, and two types of particulate matter, in Korea. We first conduct exploratory data analysis to detect the global and local spatial dependencies of air pollutants and apply Bayesian spatial regression models to examine the spatial relationship between each air pollutant and urban structure covariates. In particular, we use population, commercial area, industrial area, park area, road length, total land surface, and gross regional domestic product per person as spatial covariates of interest. Except for park area and road length, most covariates have significant positive relationships with air pollutants ranging from 0 to 1, which indicates that urbanization does not result in a one-to-one negative influence on air pollution. Findings suggest that the government should consider the degree of urban structures and air pollutants by region to achieve sustainable development.

Keywords

Land-use Regression; Particulate Matter Concentrations; Nitrogen-dioxide; Temporal Variations; Smart City; Quality; Health; Pm10; Fine; Pollutants; Urban Structure; Air Pollution; Moran's I; Bayesian Spatial Model; Motivation; Population; Urbanization; Nitrogen Oxides; Urban Structures; Emissions; Regression Analysis; Regression Models; Sulfur; Spatial Dependencies; Environmental Impact; Outdoor Air Quality; Metropolitan Areas; Economic Growth; Photochemicals; Industrial Areas; Urban Areas; Industrial Plant Emissions; Particulate Emissions; Particulate Matter; Data Analysis; Bayesian Analysis; Sustainable Development; Sulfur Oxides; Regions; Mathematical Models; Cities; China

A Roadmap for Urban Evolutionary Ecology

Rivkin, L. Ruth; Santangelo, James S.; Alberti, Marina; Aronson, Myla F. J.; De Keyzer, Charlotte W.; Diamond, Sarah E.; Fortin, Marie-josee; Frazee, Lauren J.; Gorton, Amanda J.; Hendry, Andrew P.; Liu, Yang; Losos, Jonathan B.; Macivor, J. Scott; Martin, Ryan A.; Mcdonnell, Mark J.; Miles, Lindsay S.; Munshi-south, Jason; Ness, Robert W.; Newman, Amy E. M.; Stothart, Mason R.; Theodorou, Panagiotis; Thompson, Ken A.; Verrelli, Brian C.; Whitehead, Andrew; Winchell, Kristin M.; Johnson, Marc T. J. (2019). A Roadmap for Urban Evolutionary Ecology. Evolutionary Applications, 12(3), 384 – 398.

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Abstract

Urban ecosystems are rapidly expanding throughout the world, but how urban growth affects the evolutionary ecology of species living in urban areas remains largely unknown. Urban ecology has advanced our understanding of how the development of cities and towns change environmental conditions and alter ecological processes and patterns. However, despite decades of research in urban ecology, the extent to which urbanization influences evolutionary and eco-evolutionary change has received little attention. The nascent field of urban evolutionary ecology seeks to understand how urbanization affects the evolution of populations, and how those evolutionary changes in turn influence the ecological dynamics of populations, communities, and ecosystems. Following a brief history of this emerging field, this Perspective article provides a research agenda and roadmap for future research aimed at advancing our understanding of the interplay between ecology and evolution of urban-dwelling organisms. We identify six key questions that, if addressed, would significantly increase our understanding of how urbanization influences evolutionary processes. These questions consider how urbanization affects nonadaptive evolution, natural selection, and convergent evolution, in addition to the role of urban environmental heterogeneity on species evolution, and the roles of phenotypic plasticity versus adaptation on species' abundance in cities. Our final question examines the impact of urbanization on evolutionary diversification. For each of these six questions, we suggest avenues for future research that will help advance the field of urban evolutionary ecology. Lastly, we highlight the importance of integrating urban evolutionary ecology into urban planning, conservation practice, pest management, and public engagement.

Keywords

Urban Ecology (biology); Climate Change; Urban Growth; Species Diversity; Urbanization; Citizen Science; Community Engagement; Eco-evolutionary Feedback; Gene Flow; Landscape Genetics; Urban Evolution; Urban Socioecology; Mouse Peromyscus-leucopus; Rapid Evolution; Population Genomics; Selection; Habitat; Differentiation; Framework; Environments; Biodiversity; Eco-evolutionary Feedback

Site Resource Inventories – A Missing Link in the Circular City’s Information Flow

Baganz, Gösta; Proksch, Gundula; Kloas, Werner; Wolf Lorleberg; Baganz, Daniela; Staaks, Georg; Lohrberg, Frank. (2020). Site Resource Inventories – A Missing Link in the Circular City’s Information Flow. Advances In Geosciences, 54, 23-32.

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Abstract

A circular city builds upon the principles of circular economy, which key concepts of reduce, reuse, recycle, and recover lead to a coupling of resources: products and by-products of one production process become the input of another one, often in local vicinity. However, sources, types and available quantities of underutilised resources in cities are currently not well documented. Therefore, there is a missing link in the information flow of the circular city between potential users and site-specific data. To close this gap, this study introduces the concept of a site resource inventory in conjunction with a new information model that can manage the data needed for advancing the circular city. A core taxonomy of terms is established as the foundation for the information model: the circular economy is defined as a network of circular economy entities which are regarded as black boxes and connected by their material and energy inputs and outputs. This study proposes a site resource inventory, which is a collection of infrastructural and building-specific parameters that assess the suitability of urban sites for a specific circular economy entity. An information model is developed to manage the data that allows the entities to effectively organise the allocation and use of resources within the circular city and its material and energy flows. The application of this information model was demonstrated by comparing the demand and availability of required alternative resources (e.g. greywater) at a hypothetical site comprising a commercial aquaponic facility (synergistic coupling of fish and vegetables production) and a residential building. For the implementation of the information model a proposal is made which uses the publicly available geodata infrastructure of OpenStreetMap and adopts its tag system to operationalise the integration of circular economy data by introducing new tags. A site resource inventory has the potential to bring together information needs and it is thus intended to support companies when making their business location decisions or to support local authorities in the planning process.

Keywords

Digital Mapping; Economics; By Products; Aquaponics; Economic Conditions; Fish; Spatial Data; Consumers; Food; Infrastructure; Energy Flow; Greywater; Information Flow; Biogas; Consumption; Residential Buildings; Taxonomy; Data; Resources; Sustainable Development; Urban Areas; Cities; Coupling