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Department: Urban Design and Planning

Improving Cascadia Subduction Zone Residents’ Tsunami Preparedness: Quasi-experimental Evaluation of an Evacuation Brochure

Lindell, Michael K.; Jung, Meen Chel; Prater, Carla S.; House, Donald H. (2022). Improving Cascadia Subduction Zone Residents’ Tsunami Preparedness: Quasi-experimental Evaluation of an Evacuation Brochure. Natural Hazards, 114(1), 849-881.

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Abstract

This study surveyed 227 residents in three US Pacific Coast communities that are vulnerable to a Cascadia subduction zone tsunami. In the Brochure condition, information was presented online, followed by questions about tsunamis. Respondents in the Comparison condition received the same questionnaire by mail but did not view the brochure. Respondents in the Brochure condition had higher levels of perceived information sufficiency than those in the Comparison condition about three of the five tsunami topics. Both conditions had generally realistic expectations about most tsunami warning sources. However, they had unrealistically high expectations of being warned of a local tsunami by social sources, such as route alerting, that could not be implemented before first wave arrival. They also had unrealistically high expectations being warned of a distant tsunami by ground shaking from the source earthquake, whose epicenter would be too far away for them to feel. Moreover, respondents in both conditions expected higher levels of personal property damage and family casualties than is the case for most hazards, but their levels of negative affective response were not especially high. Overall, only 10% of the sample accessed the tsunami brochure even when sent repeated contacts and the brochure demonstrated modest effects for those who did access it. These results suggest that state and local officials should engage in repeated personalized efforts to increase coastal communities' tsunami emergency preparedness because distribution of tsunami brochures has only a modest effect on preparedness.

Keywords

Subduction Zones; Tsunamis; Emergency Management; Tsunami Warning Systems; Brochures; Preparedness; Communities; Cascadia Subduction Zone Tsunami; Hazard Warnings; Quasi-experiment; Risk Communication; Risk Information-seeking; Natural Warning Signs; Earthquake; Awareness; Responses; Behavior; Model; Wellington; Hazard; Threat; Earthquakes; Casualties; Subduction; Vulnerability; Emergency Preparedness; Emergency Warning Programs; Levels; Seismic Activity; Property Damage; Shaking; Earthquake Damage; Subduction (geology); Disaster Management; Cascadia

Theorising Democratic Space with and beyond Henri Lefebvre

Purcell, Mark. (2022). Theorising Democratic Space with and beyond Henri Lefebvre. Urban Studies, 59(15), 3041-3059.

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Abstract

The purpose of this article is to theorise space in a way that resonates with democracy. It develops a radical understanding of democracy, as an affirmative project undertaken by people to directly manage their affairs themselves. To theorise space, the article takes up Henri Lefebvre's concept of 'differential space', which it conceives as an autonomous force that produces itself through the operation of desire. This self-production, Lefebvre argues, takes place in and through everyday acts of survival of those who inhabit space. The article then situates this abstract discussion of space, again following Lefebvre, in the context of ongoing worldwide urbanisation. The urban, Lefebvre argues, has agglomerated not only capitalist productive power but also the differences that exist outside of capitalist logic, and so it is where we should be looking for revolutionary difference in the world today. Taking all these insights together, we can see the project of democracy as an affirmative project undertaken by people to directly manage the production of urban space themselves. Lastly, the article argues that the project of democracy must extend beyond Lefebvre's thought. It thinks through one example, which is the question of the 'we' of democracy. It argues that to properly understand the question of difference in democratic community, we are very well served in turning to the work of Judith Butler.

Keywords

Democracy; Differential Space; Henri Lefebvre; Judith Butler

Using Open Data and Open-source Software to Develop Spatial Indicators of Urban Design and Transport Features for Achieving Healthy and Sustainable Cities

Boeing, Geoff; Higgs, Carl; Liu, Shiqin; Giles-corti, Billie; Sallis, James F.; Cerin, Ester; Lowe, Melanie; Adlakha, Deepti; Hinckson, Erica; Moudon, Anne Vernez; Salvo, Deborah; Adams, Marc A.; Barrozo, Ligia, V; Bozovic, Tamara; Delclos-alio, Xavier; Dygryn, Jan; Ferguson, Sara; Gebel, Klaus; Thanh Phuong Ho; Lai, Poh-chin; Martori, Joan C.; Nitvimol, Kornsupha; Queralt, Ana; Roberts, Jennifer D.; Sambo, Garba H.; Schipperijn, Jasper; Vale, David; Van De Weghe, Nico; Vich, Guillem; Arundel, Jonathan. (2022). Using Open Data and Open-source Software to Develop Spatial Indicators of Urban Design and Transport Features for Achieving Healthy and Sustainable Cities. Lancet Global Health, 10(6), E907-E918.

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Abstract

Benchmarking and monitoring of urban design and transport features is crucial to achieving local and international health and sustainability goals. However, most urban indicator frameworks use coarse spatial scales that either only allow between-city comparisons, or require expensive, technical, local spatial analyses for within-city comparisons. This study developed a reusable, open-source urban indicator computational framework using open data to enable consistent local and global comparative analyses. We show this framework by calculating spatial indicators-for 25 diverse cities in 19 countries-of urban design and transport features that support health and sustainability. We link these indicators to cities' policy contexts, and identify populations living above and below critical thresholds for physical activity through walking. Efforts to broaden participation in crowdsourcing data and to calculate globally consistent indicators are essential for planning evidence-informed urban interventions, monitoring policy effects, and learning lessons from peer cities to achieve health, equity, and sustainability goals.

Keywords

Systems; Access; Care

What Next? Expanding Our View of City Planning and Global Health, and Implementing and Monitoring Evidence-informed Policy

Giles-corti, Billie; Moudon, Anne Vernez; Lowe, Melanie; Cerin, Ester; Boeing, Geoff; Frumkin, Howard; Salvo, Deborah; Foster, Sarah; Kleeman, Alexandra; Bekessy, Sarah; De Sa, Thiago Herick; Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark; Higgs, Carl; Hinckson, Erica; Adlakha, Deepti; Arundel, Jonathan; Liu, Shiqin; Oyeyemi, Adewale L.; Nitvimol, Kornsupha; Sallis, James F. (2022). What Next? Expanding Our View of City Planning and Global Health, and Implementing and Monitoring Evidence-informed Policy. Lancet Global Health, 10(6), E919-E926.

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Abstract

This Series on urban design, transport, and health aimed to facilitate development of a global system of health-related policy and spatial indicators to assess achievements and deficiencies in urban and transport policies and features. This final paper in the Series summarises key findings, considers what to do next, and outlines urgent key actions. Our study of 25 cities in 19 countries found that, despite many well intentioned policies, few cities had measurable standards and policy targets to achieve healthy and sustainable cities. Available standards and targets were often insufficient to promote health and wellbeing, and health-supportive urban design and transport features were often inadequate or inequitably distributed. City planning decisions affect human and planetary health and amplify city vulnerabilities, as the COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted. Hence, we offer an expanded framework of pathways through which city planning affects health, incorporating 11 integrated urban system policies and 11 integrated urban and transport interventions addressing current and emerging issues. Our call to action recommends widespread uptake and further development of our methods and open-source tools to create upstream policy and spatial indicators to benchmark and track progress; unmask spatial inequities; inform interventions and investments; and accelerate transitions to net zero, healthy, and sustainable cities.

Of Mills and Malls: The Future of Urban Industrial Heritage in Neoliberal Mumbai

Chalana, Manish. (2012). Of Mills and Malls: The Future of Urban Industrial Heritage in Neoliberal Mumbai. Future Anterior: Journal Of Historic Preservation, History, Theory, And Criticism, 9(1), 1 – 15.

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Abstract

The mandate of historic preservation is to maintain vestiges of diverse cultural heritage, a task that is becoming increasingly difficult in rapidly globalizing India. Much of the country's urban heritage outside of the “monument-and-site” framework is threatened by massive restructuring of cities facilitated by neoliberal urban policies. Mumbai has a rich cultural heritage, associated with diverse sociocultural and economic groups. Much of this is threatened by development practices pursued by various forces with a particular vision of Mumbai as an emerging “global city.” In this work Chalana examines Girangaon, an early industrial district of Mumbai, currently being transformed by forces of domestic and global capital. He argues that Girangaon's urban industrial heritage is a significant piece of the city's development history, which future visions of a global metropolis should embrace. While the expansion of Mumbai's economy has benefited some avenues of preservation practice in Mumbai, in Girangaon its consequences have also been negative, as a working-class neighborhood is restructured into a hypermodern district for the elite. The current forms of preservation practice in the city have been insufficient in addressing the complexity around managing heritage in low-income neighborhoods. Girangaon, and Mumbai overall, reveal the many ways that economic, cultural, and political globalization can impact historic preservation practice.]

A Global Horizon Scan for Urban Evolutionary Ecology

Verrelli, Brian C.; Alberti, Marina; Des Roches, Simone; Harris, Nyeema C.; Hendry, Andrew P.; Johnson, Marc T. J.; Savage, Amy M.; Charmantier, Anne; Gotanda, Kiyoko M.; Govaert, Lynn; Miles, Lindsay S.; Rivkin, L. Ruth; Winchell, Kristin M.; Brans, Kristien I.; Correa, Cristian; Diamond, Sarah E.; Fitzhugh, Ben; Grimm, Nancy B.; Hughes, Sara; Marzluff, John M.; Munshi-south, Jason; Rojas, Carolina; Santangelo, James S.; Schell, Christopher J.; Schweitzer, Jennifer A.; Szulkin, Marta; Urban, Mark C.; Zhou, Yuyu; Ziter, Carly. (2022). A Global Horizon Scan for Urban Evolutionary Ecology. Trends In Ecology & Evolution, 37(11), 1006-1019.

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Abstract

Research on the evolutionary ecology of urban areas reveals how human-induced evolutionary changes affect biodiversity and essential ecosystem services. In a rapidly urbanizing world imposing many selective pressures, a time-sensitive goal is to identify the emergent issues and research priorities that affect the ecology and evolution of species within cities. Here, we report the results of a horizon scan of research questions in urban evolutionary ecology submitted by 100 interdisciplinary scholars. We identified 30 top questions organized into six themes that highlight priorities for future research. These research questions will require methodological advances and interdisciplinary collaborations, with continued revision as the field of urban evolutionary ecology expands with the rapid growth of cities.

Keywords

Urban Ecology; Sustainability; Cities & Towns; Ecosystem Dynamics; Urban Growth; Ecosystem Services; Urban Research; Climate Change; Sociopolitical; Urban Evolution; Urbanization; Human Health; Biodiversity; Adaptation; Challenges; Dynamics; Management; Invasion; Science

A Water Quality Prediction Model for Large-scale Rivers Based on Projection Pursuit Regression in the Yangtze River

Yi, Ze-ji; Yang, Xiao-hua; Li, Yu-qi. (2022). A Water Quality Prediction Model for Large-scale Rivers Based on Projection Pursuit Regression in the Yangtze River. Thermal Science, 26(3), 2561-2567.

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Abstract

In recent decades, the Yangtze River Basin, which carries hundreds of millions of people and a substantial economic scale, has been plagued by water quality dete-rioration, threatening considerably sustainable development. In this paper, a sample set is established based on the water quality indexes of chemical oxygen demand and dissolved oxygen obtained by week-by-week monitoring on the main stream of the Yangtze River in Panzhihua, Yueyang, Jiujiang, and Nanjing from 2006 to 2018. The twelve characteristic variables are selected by random forest technique, and the week-by-week dynamic prediction models of chemical oxygen demand and dissolved oxygen at each section of main stream are established by the projection pursuit regression, which can effectively predict the water quality dynamics of the Yangtze River main stream.

Keywords

Pollution; Water Quality; Dynamic Prediction Model; Random Forest; Projection Pursuit Regression; Yangtze River

Associations between Neighborhood Built Environment, Residential Property Values, and Adult BMI Change: The Seattle Obesity Study III

Buszkiewicz, James H.; Rose, Chelsea M.; Ko, Linda K.; Mou, Jin; Moudon, Anne Vernez; Hurvitz, Philip M.; Cook, Andrea J.; Drewnowski, Adam. (2022). Associations between Neighborhood Built Environment, Residential Property Values, and Adult BMI Change: The Seattle Obesity Study III. SSM-Population Health, 19.

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Abstract

Objective: To examine associations between neighborhood built environment (BE) variables, residential property values, and longitudinal 1-and 2-year changes in body mass index (BMI). Methods: The Seattle Obesity Study III was a prospective cohort study of adults with geocoded residential addresses, conducted in King, Pierce, and Yakima Counties in Washington State. Measured heights and weights were obtained at baseline (n = 879), year 1 (n = 727), and year 2 (n = 679). Tax parcel residential property values served as proxies for individual socioeconomic status. Residential unit and road intersection density were captured using Euclidean-based SmartMaps at 800 m buffers. Counts of supermarket (0 versus. 1+) and fast-food restaurant availability (0, 1-3, 4+) were measured using network based SmartMaps at 1600 m buffers. Density measures and residential property values were categorized into tertiles. Linear mixed-effects models tested whether baseline BE variables and property values were associated with differential changes in BMI at year 1 or year 2, adjusting for age, gender, race/ethnicity, education, home ownership, and county of residence. These associations were then tested for potential disparities by age group, gender, race/ethnicity, and education. Results: Road intersection density, access to food sources, and residential property values were inversely associated with BMI at baseline. At year 1, participants in the 3rd tertile of density metrics and with 4+ fast-food restaurants nearby showed less BMI gain compared to those in the 1st tertile or with 0 restaurants. At year 2, higher residential property values were predictive of lower BMI gain. There was evidence of differential associations by age group, gender, and education but not race/ethnicity. Conclusion: Inverse associations between BE metrics and residential property values at baseline demonstrated mixed associations with 1-and 2-year BMI change. More work is needed to understand how individual-level sociodemographic factors moderate associations between the BE, property values, and BMI change.

Keywords

Body-mass Index; Physical-activity; Food Environment; Socioeconomic-status; Weight-gain; Health; Quality

Back to the Future: Reintegrating Biology to Understand How Past Eco-evolutionary Change Can Predict Future Outcomes

Thompson, Cynthia L.; Alberti, Marina; Barve, Sahas; Battistuzzi, Fabia U.; Drake, Jeana L.; Goncalves, Guilherme Casas; Govaert, Lynn; Partridge, Charlyn; Yang, Ya. (2022). Back to the Future: Reintegrating Biology to Understand How Past Eco-evolutionary Change Can Predict Future Outcomes. Integrative And Comparative Biology, 61(6), 2218-2232.

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Abstract

During the last few decades, biologists have made remarkable progress in understanding the fundamental processes that shape life. But despite the unprecedented level of knowledge now available, large gaps still remain in our understanding of the complex interplay of eco-evolutionary mechanisms across scales of life. Rapidly changing environments on Earth provide a pressing need to understand the potential implications of eco-evolutionary dynamics, which can be achieved by improving existing eco-evolutionary models and fostering convergence among the sub-fields of biology. We propose a new, data-driven approach that harnesses our knowledge of the functioning of biological systems to expand current conceptual frameworks and develop corresponding models that can more accurately represent and predict future eco-evolutionary outcomes. We suggest a roadmap toward achieving this goal. This long-term vision will move biology in a direction that can wield these predictive models for scientific applications that benefit humanity and increase the resilience of natural biological systems. We identify short, medium, and long-term key objectives to connect our current state of knowledge to this long-term vision, iteratively progressing across three stages: (1) utilizing knowledge of biological systems to better inform eco-evolutionary models, (2) generating models with more accurate predictions, and (3) applying predictive models to benefit the biosphere. Within each stage, we outline avenues of investigation and scientific applications related to the timescales over which evolution occurs, the parameter space of eco-evolutionary processes, and the dynamic interactions between these mechanisms. The ability to accurately model, monitor, and anticipate eco-evolutionary changes would be transformational to humanity's interaction with the global environment, providing novel tools to benefit human health, protect the natural world, and manage our planet's biosphere.

Keywords

Rapid Evolution; Ecological Interactions; Niche Construction; Climate-change; Phenotype; Community; Selection; Fitness; Consequences; Variability