Frank, A.; Carroll-Nellenback, Jonathan; Alberti, M.; Kleidon, A. (2018). The Anthropocene Generalized: Evolution of Exo-Civilizations and Their Planetary Feedback. Astrobiology, 18(5), 503 – 518.
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Abstract
We present a framework for studying generic behaviors possible in the interaction between a resource-harvesting technological civilization (an exo-civilization) and the planetary environment in which it evolves. Using methods from dynamical systems theory, we introduce and analyze a suite of simple equations modeling a population which consumes resources for the purpose of running a technological civilization and the feedback those resources drive on the state of the host planet. The feedbacks can drive the planet away from the initial state the civilization originated in and into domains that are detrimental to its sustainability. Our models conceptualize the problem primarily in terms of feedbacks from the resource use onto the coupled planetary systems. In addition, we also model the population growth advantages gained via the harvesting of these resources. We present three models of increasing complexity: (1) Civilization-planetary interaction with a single resource; (2) Civilization-planetary interaction with two resources each of which has a different level of planetary system feedback; (3) Civilization-planetary interaction with two resources and nonlinear planetary feedback (i.e., runaways). All three models show distinct classes of exo-civilization trajectories. We find smooth entries into long-term, sustainable steady states. We also find population booms followed by various levels of die-off. Finally, we also observe rapid collapse trajectories for which the population approaches n=0. Our results are part of a program for developing an Astrobiology of the Anthropocene in which questions of sustainability, centered on the coupled Earth-system, can be seen in their proper astronomical/planetary context. We conclude by discussing the implications of our results for both the coupled Earth system and for the consideration of exo-civilizations across cosmic history.
Keywords
Anthropocene Epoch; Holocene Epoch; Climatology; Earth System Science; Climate Change; Earth (planet); Biosphere; Easter-island; Earth; Population; Anthropocene; Astrobiology; Civilization; Dynamical System Theory; Exoplanets; Population Dynamics
Drewnowski, A.; Arterburn, D.; Zane, J.; Aggarwal, A.; Gupta, S.; Hurvitz, P. M.; Moudon, A., V; Bobb, J.; Cook, A.; Lozano, P.; Rosenberg, D. (2019). The Moving to Health (M2H) Approach to Natural Experiment Research: A Paradigm Shift for Studies on Built Environment and Health. Ssm-population Health, 7.
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Abstract
Improving the built environment (BE) is viewed as one strategy to improve community diets and health. The present goal is to review the literature on the effects of BE on health, highlight its limitations, and explore the growing use of natural experiments in BE research, such as the advent of new supermarkets, revitalized parks, or new transportation systems. Based on recent studies on movers, a paradigm shift in built-environment health research may be imminent. Following the classic Moving to Opportunity study in the US, the present Moving to Health (M2H) strategy takes advantage of the fact that changing residential location can entail overnight changes in multiple BE variables. The necessary conditions for applying the M2H strategy to Geographic Information Systems (GIS) databases and to large longitudinal cohorts are outlined below. Also outlined are significant limitations of this approach, including the use of electronic medical records in lieu of survey data. The key research question is whether documented changes in BE exposure can be linked to changes in health outcomes in a causal manner. The use of geo-localized clinical information from regional health care systems should permit new insights into the social and environmental determinants of health.
Keywords
Body-mass Index; Neighborhood Food Environment; Residential Property-values; Cardiometabolic Risk-factors; New-york-city; Physical-activity; Obesity Rates; King County; Weight-gain; Land-use; Built Environment (be); Geographic Information Systems (gis); Electronic Medical Records; Natural Experiments; Obesity; Diabetes; Residential Mobility
Nkyekyer, Esi W.; Dannenberg, Andrew L. (2019). Use and Effectiveness of Health Impact Assessment in the Energy and Natural Resources Sector in the United States, 2007 – 2016. Impact Assessment & Project Appraisal, 37(1), 17 – 32.
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Abstract
Decisions made in the energy and natural resources sector can affect public health. This report reviews the characteristics and assesses the effectiveness of health impact assessments (HIAs) conducted in this sector. A total of 30 HIAs conducted in 14 states in the United States were identified using a targeted literature search. Five HIAs illustrative of the different source and sub-sector categories, and with identifiable impacts on decision-making processes were selected for review. An existing conceptual framework (Wismar) was used to assess the effectiveness of the five selected HIAs on decision-making related to non-renewable energy, renewable energy, mining, and energy conservation. The 30 HIAs were performed for a variety of projects and assessed health impacts ranging from metabolic disorders to community livability. Eight of the 30 reports were incorporated into environmental impact assessments. All five selected HIAs were generally effective and raised awareness of the health effects of the projects being assessed; four were directly effective and led to changes in final project decisions. Their variable effectiveness may be related to the extent of community engagement and consideration of equity issues, differences in the details and quality of monitoring and evaluation plans devised as part of the HIA process, and whether the outcomes of monitoring and evaluation are reported.
Keywords
Health Impact Assessment; Health Equity; Natural Resources; Environmental Impact Analysis; Power Resources; U.s. States; Energy Conservation; United States; Decision-making Effectiveness; Energy And Natural Resources; Wismar Framework; Horizon Oil-spill; Wind Turbine Noise; Quality-of-life; Environmental-health; Gas Development; Mental-health; Exposure; Vicinity; Hazards; Sleep; Environmental Assessment; Public Health; Metabolic Disorders; Renewable Energy; Monitoring; Decision Making; Evaluation; Environmental Impact; Community Involvement; Environmental Impact Assessment; Renewable Resources; Decisions; Impact Analysis; Mining; United States--us
Dunn, Peter T. (2020). Participatory Infrastructures: The Politics of Mobility Platforms. Urban Planning, 5(4), 335 – 346.
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Abstract
Much of everyday life in cities is now mediated by digital platforms, a mode of organization in which control is both distributed widely among participants and sharply delimited by the platform's constraints. This article uses examples of smartphone-based platforms for urban mobility to argue that platforms create new political arrangements of the city, intermediating the social processes of management and movement that characterize urban life. Its empirical basis is a study of user interfaces, data specifications, and algorithms used in the operation and regulation of ride-hailing services and bike-share systems. I focus on three aspects of urban politics affected by platforms: its location, its participants, and the types of conflict it addresses. First, the programming forums in which decisions are encoded in and distributed through platforms' core digital architecture are new sites of policy deliberation outside the more familiar arenas of city politics. Second, travelers have new opportunities to use platforms for travel on their own terms, but this expanded participation is circumscribed by interfaces that presuppose individual, transactional engagement rather than a participation attentive to a broader social and environmental context. Finally, digital systems show themselves to be well suited to enforcing quantifiable distributional goals, but struggle to resolve the more nuanced relational matters that constitute the politics of everyday city life. These illustrations suggest that digital tools for managing transportation are not only political products, but also reset the stage on which urban encounters play out.
Keywords
Construction; Users; Digital Geographies; Infrastructure; Participation; Platform Urbanism; Shared-use Mobility
Berrigan, David; Dannenberg, Andrew L.; Lee, Michelle; Rodgers, Kelly; Wojcik, Janet R.; Wali, Behram; Tribby, Calvin P.; Buehler, Ralph; Sallis, James F.; Roberts, Jennifer D.; Steedly, Ann; Peng, Binbin; Eisenberg, Yochai; Rodriguez, Daniel A. (2021). The 2019 Conference on Health and Active Transportation: Research Needs and Opportunities. International Journal Of Environmental Research And Public Health, 18(22).
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Abstract
Active transportation (AT) is widely viewed as an important target for increasing participation in aerobic physical activity and improving health, while simultaneously addressing pollution and climate change through reductions in motor vehicular emissions. In recent years, progress in increasing AT has stalled in some countries and, furthermore, the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has created new AT opportunities while also exposing the barriers and health inequities related to AT for some populations. This paper describes the results of the December 2019 Conference on Health and Active Transportation (CHAT) which brought together leaders from the transportation and health disciplines. Attendees charted a course for the future around three themes: Reflecting on Innovative Practices, Building Strategic Institutional Relationships, and Identifying Research Needs and Opportunities. This paper focuses on conclusions of the Research Needs and Opportunities theme. We present a conceptual model derived from the conference sessions that considers how economic and systems analysis, evaluation of emerging technologies and policies, efforts to address inclusivity, disparities and equity along with renewed attention to messaging and communication could contribute to overcoming barriers to development and use of AT infrastructure. Specific research gaps concerning these themes are presented. We further discuss the relevance of these themes considering the pandemic. Renewed efforts at research, dissemination and implementation are needed to achieve the potential health and environmental benefits of AT and to preserve positive changes associated with the pandemic while mitigating negative ones.
Keywords
Improving Arterial Roads; Physical-activity; Cost-effectiveness; Built Environment; Autonomous Vehicles; Walking; Behavior; Impact; Active Transportation; Covid-19; Climate Change; Physical Activity; Public Health; Pandemics; Public Transportation; Collaboration; Transportation; Economic Models; Environmental Impact; Outdoor Air Quality; Vehicle Emissions; Coronaviruses; Hispanic Americans; Fatalities; Systems Analysis; African Americans; Infrastructure; Medical Research; Committees; Land Use; Economic Analysis; New Technology; United States--us
Lin, Lin; Chen, Xueming (Jimmy); Moudon, Anne Vernez. (2021). Measuring the Urban Forms of Shanghai’s City Center and Its New Districts: A Neighborhood-Level Comparative Analysis. Sustainability, 13(15).
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Abstract
Rapid urban expansion has radically transformed the city centers and the new districts of Chinese cities. Both areas have undergone unique redevelopment and development over the past decades, generating unique urban forms worthy of study. To date, few studies have investigated development patterns and land use intensities at the neighborhood level. The present study aims to fill the gap and compare the densities of different types of developments and the spatial compositions of different commercial uses at the neighborhood level. We captured the attributes of their built environment that support instrumental activities of daily living of 710 neighborhoods centered on the public elementary schools of the entire Shanghai municipality using application programming interfaces provided in Baidu Map services. The 200 m neighborhood provided the best fit to capture the variations of the built environment. Overall, city center neighborhoods had significantly higher residential densities and housed more daily routine destinations than their counterparts in the new districts. Unexpectedly, however, the total length of streets was considerably smaller in city-center neighborhoods, likely reflecting the prominence of the wide multilane vehicular roads surrounding large center city redevelopment projects. The findings point to convergence between the city center's urban forms and that of the new districts.
Keywords
Quantifying Spatiotemporal Patterns; Fast-food Restaurants; Instrumental Activities; Physical-activity; Chinese Cities; Land; Schools; Redevelopment; Expansion; Transformation; Built Environment; Planning; Neighborhood; Urban Form; Shanghai
Jung, Meen Chel; Kang, Mingyu; Kim, Sunghwan. (2022). Does Polycentric Development Produce Less Transportation Carbon Emissions? Evidence from Urban Form Identified by Night-Time Lights Across US Metropolitan Areas. Urban Climate, 44.
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Abstract
Identifying the comprehensive metropolitan urban form is important to propose effective policies to mitigate transportation carbon emissions. A publicly accessible night-time light dataset was used to identify urban centers and develop two polycentric indices to compute the composition and configuration of urban form, respectively. We used the most populous 103 U.S. metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs), with their corresponding transportation carbon emissions, polycentric indices, population sizes, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, and road network densities. We first explored the typology of urban form and classified MSAs into six types based on two polycentric indices. We then introduced correlation analysis and statistical models to test the relationships between polycentric urban form and transportation carbon emissions. We found: (1) more urban centers lead to more emissions (compositional dimension), (2) more spatially distributed urban centers result in less emissions (configurational dimension), and (3) population and GDP per capita are positively related to carbon emissions. These findings suggest the importance of measuring two polycentric dimensions separately but using them together. Urban planners should consider mixed strategies that combine the traditional intra-center-based smart growth principles and the metropolitan-level inter-centers spatial plan to effectively counteract climate change.
Keywords
Polycentric Urban Form; Urban Centers; Carbon Emissions; Night-time Lights; Smart Growth; Climate Change; Co2 Emissions; Spatial Structure; Satellite Imagery; Cities; Patterns; Trends; Growth; Determinants; China
Abramson, Daniel. (2011). Transitional Property Rights and Local Developmental History in China. Urban Studies (sage Publications, Ltd.), 48(3), 553 – 568.
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Abstract
Among the societies that are moving from a centrally planned economy with weak property rights towards a market-oriented economy with stronger and more privatised property rights, China is undergoing an especially rapid and extensive urbanisation that obscures the diversity and relevance of local pre-Reform property arrangements. Official discourse emphasises the formalisation, clarification and, to some extent, the privatisation of property rights in the name of overall societal development and gradual integration with the global economy. In local informal, popular practice and discourse, however, the invocation of property rights reflects the continuing political relevance of both revolutionary and traditional notions of rights to urban space that challenge a unitary, linear view of the development process.
Keywords
Property Rights; History Of Economic Development; Central Economic Planning; Privatization; Urbanization; History; Social Policy; China
Jiao, Junfeng; Moudon, Anne V.; Ulmer, Jared; Hurvitz, Philip M.; Drewnowski, Adam. (2012). How to Identify Food Deserts: Measuring Physical and Economic Access to Supermarkets in King County, Washington. American Journal Of Public Health, 102(10), E32 – E39.
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Abstract
Objectives. We explored new ways to identify food deserts. Methods. We estimated physical and economic access to supermarkets for 5 low-income groups in Seattle-King County, Washington. We used geographic information system data to measure physical access: service areas around each supermarket were delineated by ability to walk, bicycle, ride transit, or drive within 10 minutes. We assessed economic access by stratifying supermarkets into low, medium, and high cost. Combining income and access criteria generated multiple ways to estimate food deserts. Results. The 5 low-income group definitions yielded total vulnerable populations ranging from 4% to 33% of the county's population. Almost all of the vulnerable populations lived within a 10-minute drive or bus ride of a low-or medium-cost supermarket. Yet at most 34% of the vulnerable populations could walk to any supermarket, and as few as 3% could walk to a low-cost supermarket. Conclusions. The criteria used to define low-income status and access to supermarkets greatly affect estimates of populations living in food deserts. Measures of access to food must include travel duration and mode and supermarket food costs.
Keywords
Neighborhood Characteristics; Store Availability; Accessibility; Consumption; Disparities; Environment; Location; Fruit; Pay
Zhao, Zhan; Zhao, Jinhua; Shen, Qing. (2013). Has Transportation Demand of Shanghai, China, Passed Its Peak Growth? Transportation Research Record, 2394, 85 – 92.
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Abstract
On the basis of four comprehensive transportation surveys in Shanghai, China, this study examined the latest trends in Shanghai's travel demand; investigated their social, economic, and spatial drivers; and compared the pace of travel demand growth in three periods: 1980s to early 1990s, early 1990s to mid-2000s, and mid-2000s to the present. The demand growth was relatively slow in the first period and then sped up in the second before it returned to a slower pace in the third period. As for trip purpose, Shanghai's travel is much more diversified than previously, with an increasing share of noncommuting trips (from 28% in 1995 to 46% in 2009). Spatially, travel demand is dispersed from the central district to peripheral districts because of urban expansion and decentralization and from Puxi (west of the Huangpu River) to Pudong (east of the Huangpu River) as a result of significant economic development of the Pudong New Area. Both spatial diffusion and purpose diversification favor the convenience and flexibility of private motor vehicles. Driven by rapid motorization, vehicle travel is growing at a much faster pace than person travel. Overall, the annual growth rate for travel demand in Shanghai reached its peak in 2004 for both person trips and vehicle trips. In absolute numbers, person trip growth has peaked, but vehicle trip growth has not. In response to the growing demand, especially rapid motorization, the local government has made tremendous investments in road infrastructure and public transit, and it has attempted to manage demand through vehicle ownership control.
Keywords
Urban; Impacts; Policy