Duncan, Glen E.; Mills, Brianna; Strachan, Eric; Hurvitz, Philip; Huang, Ruizhu; Moudon, Anne Vernez; Turkheimer, Eric. (2014). Stepping Towards Causation in Studies of Neighborhood and Environmental Effects: How Twin Research Can Overcome Problems of Selection and Reverse Causation. Health & Place, 27, 106 – 111.
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Abstract
No causal evidence is available to translate associations between neighborhood characteristics and health outcomes into beneficial changes to built environments. Observed associations may be causal or result from uncontrolled confounds related to family upbringing. Twin designs can help neighborhood effects studies overcome selection and reverse causation problems in specifying causal mechanisms. Beyond quantifying genetic effects (i.e., heritability coefficients), we provide examples of innovative measures and analytic methods that use twins as quasi-experimental controls for confounding by environmental effects. We conclude that collaboration among investigators from multiple fields can move the field forward by designing studies that step toward causation. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved,
Keywords
Residential Location; Methylation; Gene; Interplay; Obesity; Causality; Environment Design; Lifestyle Risk Reduction; Social And Built Environments; Twin Studies
Drewnowski, Adam; Aggarwal, Anju; Tang, Wesley; Moudon, Anne Vernez. (2015). Residential Property Values Predict Prevalent Obesity but Do Not Predict 1-year Weight Change. Obesity, 23(3), 671 – 676.
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Abstract
ObjectiveLower socio economic status (SES) has been linked with higher obesity rates but not with weight gain. This study examined whether SES can predict short-term weight change. MethodsThe Seattle Obesity Study II was based on an observational cohort of 440 adults. Weights and heights were measured at baseline and at 1 year. Self-reported education and incomes were obtained by questionnaire. Home addresses were linked to tax parcel property values from the King County, Washington, tax assessor. Associations among SES variables, prevalent obesity, and 1-year weight change were examined using multivariable linear regressions. ResultsLow residential property values at the tax parcel level predicted prevalent obesity at baseline and at 1 year. Living in the top quartile of house prices reduced obesity risk by 80% at both time points. At 1 year, about 38% of the sample lost >1 kg body weight; 32% maintained ( 1 kg); and 30% gained >1 kg. In adjusted models, none of the baseline SES measures had any impact on 1-year weight change. ConclusionsSES variables, including tax parcel property values, predicted prevalent obesity but did not predict short-term weight change. These findings, based on longitudinal cohort data, suggest other mechanisms are involved in short-term weight change.
Keywords
Body-mass-index; Socioeconomic-status; United-states; Physical-activity; King County; Association; Health; Trends; Gain; Income
Coslett, Daniel E.; Chalana, Manish. (2016). National Parks for New Audiences Diversifying Interpretation for Enhanced Contemporary Relevance. Public Historian, 38(4), 101 – 128.
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Abstract
Changing sociocultural and historiographic contexts require new approaches to interpretation and presentation at National Park Service-administered sites. Through the study of two NPS parks in Washington State (San Juan Island National Historical Park and Whitman Mission National Historic Site), this article explores the agency's interpretive programs and practices in relation to founding mandates and contemporary relevance. As demonstrated by these case studies, efforts to expand programming and presentations within the NPS system are ongoing but at present insufficient in light of current changes in demographics and visitation. Ultimately, for the NPS to remain relevant in the twenty-first century it must respect founding mandates but diversify interpretation of its parks' contested histories, thereby enhancing its contemporary relevance and better engaging today's audiences.
Keywords
Service; National Park Service; Founding Mandate; Site Interpretation; Contested History; Diversity
Purcell, Mark. (2016). For Democracy: Planning and Publics Without the State. Planning Theory, 15(4), 386 – 401.
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Abstract
This article argues that planning should develop a robust conception of publics without the State. We should do so because the State is a necessarily oligarchical arrangement that prevents us from achieving real democracy. We should explore publics without the State in both theory and practice.
Keywords
Participation; Democracy; Hobbes; Locke; Publics; State
Doescher, Mark P.; Lee, Chanam; Saelens, Brian E.; Lee, Chunkuen; Berke, Ethan M.; Adachi-mejia, Anna M.; Patterson, Davis G.; Moudon, Anne Vernez. (2017). Utilitarian and Recreational Walking Among Spanish- and English-Speaking Latino Adults in Micropolitan US Towns. Journal Of Immigrant & Minority Health, 19(2), 237 – 245.
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Abstract
Walking among Latinos in US Micropolitan towns may vary by language spoken. In 2011-2012, we collected telephone survey and built environment (BE) data from adults in six towns located within micropolitan counties from two states with sizable Latino populations. We performed mixed-effects logistic regression modeling to examine relationships between ethnicity-language group [Spanish-speaking Latinos (SSLs); English-speaking Latinos (ESLs); and English-speaking non-Latinos (ENLs)] and utilitarian walking and recreational walking, accounting for socio-demographic, lifestyle and BE characteristics. Low-income SSLs reported higher amounts of utilitarian walking than ENLs (p = 0.007), but utilitarian walking in this group decreased as income increased. SSLs reported lower amounts of recreational walking than ENLs (p = 0.004). ESL-ENL differences were not significant. We identified no statistically significant interactions between ethnicity-language group and BE characteristics. Approaches to increase walking in micropolitan towns with sizable SSL populations may need to account for this group's differences in walking behaviors.
Keywords
Walking; Confidence Intervals; Ecology; Ethnic Groups; Hispanic Americans; Income; Language & Languages; Metropolitan Areas; Population; Public Health; Recreation; Rural Conditions; White People; Logistic Regression Analysis; Socioeconomic Factors; Social Context; Body Mass Index; Acquisition Of Data; Physical Activity; Data Analysis Software; Odds Ratio; United States; Environment Design; Ethnicity; Rural Populations; Physical-activity; Built Environment; United-states; Postmenopausal Women; Acculturation; Risk; Transportation; Mortality; Health; Associations; Studies; Demographic Aspects; Telephone Surveys; Minority & Ethnic Groups; Physical Fitness; Low Income Groups; Urban Environments; Demographics; Language; Accounting; Statistical Analysis; Urban Areas; Towns; Populations; Adults; Lifestyles; Latin American Cultural Groups; Sociodemographics; Landscape Architecture; Population Growth; Pediatrics; Leisure; Health Care; Noncitizens; Preventive Medicine; United States--us
Chen, Peng; Liu, Qian; Sun, Feiyang. (2018). Bicycle Parking Security and Built Environments. Transportation Research: Part D, 62, 169 – 178.
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Abstract
The lack of secure bicycle parking is a serious but often neglected issue that discourages bicycling. Classical environment criminology theories try to explain the pattern of bicycle theft but provide limited insights into the relationship between crime and the built environment. This study examines the association between built environment factors and bicycle theft using a zero inflated negative binomial model to account for data over-dispersion and excess zeros. The assembled dataset provides variables pertaining to the road network, land use, bicycle travel demand, and socio-demographics. The key findings are as follows: (1) Bicycle theft is more likely to occur in areas for commercial purposes, areas with a high population or employment density, and areas with more bike lanes or sidewalks. (2) Bicycle theft is likely to occur at sites with more bike racks or bus stops. (3) Bicycle theft is more likely to occur at mid-blocks than at intersections. (4) Bicycle theft is more likely to occur in neighborhoods with a greater percentage of socially disadvantaged people and in neighborhoods where residents' median age is lower. (5) The likelihood of losing a bicycle is lower in areas with more bicycle trips. In general, the number of bicycle thefts increases in dense areas with more targets and decreases with greater natural guardianship provided by more passersby. With respect to policy implications, governments and transport planners should implement a geographically-differentiated surveillance strategy, encourage bicycling, improve the visibility of bike racks to the public, and promote surveillance and natural guardianship in densely developed areas.
Keywords
Bicycle Parking; Cycling; Bicycle Theft; Sociodemographic Factors; Bicycles; Environmental Aspects; Built Environment; Environment Criminology; Urban Design; Zero-inflated Negative Binomial Model; Crime; Theft; Risk; Opportunities; Behavior; Travel
Stewart, Orion Theodore; Moudon, Anne Vernez; Littman, Alyson; Seto, Edmund; Saelens, Brian E. (2018). The Association between Park Facilities and the Occurrence of Physical Activity during Park Visits. Journal Of Leisure Research, 49(3-5), 217 – 235.
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Abstract
Prior research has found a positive relationship between the variety of park facilities and park-based physical activity (PA) but has not provided an estimate of the effect that additional different PA facilities have on whether an individual is active during a park visit. Using objective measures of park visits and PA from an urban sample of 225 adults in King County, Washington, we compared the variety of PA facilities in parks visited where an individual was active to PA facilities in parks where the same individual was sedentary. Each additional different PA facility at a park was associated with a 6% increased probability of being active during a visit. Adding different PA facilities to a park appears to have a moderate effect on whether an individual is active during a park visit, which could translate into large community health impacts when scaled up to multiple park visitors.
Keywords
Accelerometer Data; Built Environment; Walking; Density; Health; Adults; Size; Gps; Attractiveness; Improvements; Measurement; Parks; Physical Activity; Quantitative Research; Urban Planning
Lindell, Michael K.; Arlikatti, Sudha; Huang, Shih-kai. (2019). Immediate Behavioral Response to the June 17, 2013 Flash Floods in Uttarakhand, North India. International Journal Of Disaster Risk Reduction, 34, 129 – 146.
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Abstract
The 2013 Uttarakhand flash flood was such a surprise for those at risk that the predominant source of information for their risk was environmental cues and, secondarily, peer warnings rather than official warnings. Of those who received warnings, few received information other than the identity of the flood threat. A survey of 316 survivors found that most people's first response was to immediately evacuate but some stayed to receive additional information, confirm their warnings, or engage in evacuation preparations. Unfortunately, engaging in these milling behaviors necessarily delayed their final evacuations. Mediation analysis revealed that psychological reactions mediated the relationship between information sources and behavioral responses. Further analyses revealed that immediate evacuation and evacuation delay were both predicted best by information search and positive affect, but correlation analyses indicated that a number of other models were also plausible. Final evacuation was best predicted by immediate evacuation and, to a significantly lesser extent, household together. Overall, results suggest that the Protective Action Decision Model (PADM) should be considered a useful framework for examining household responses to flash floods in developing countries like India. It supports the conclusion that a household's first warning source is a function of two distinct detection and dissemination systems within a community-an official system and an informal system. However, it fails to capture what pre-impact emergency preparedness entails for rapid onset events in a developing country context. Further research is needed to determine the relative importance of situational and cultural characteristics in producing these observed differences.
Keywords
Risk Perception; Mental Models; Warnings; Evacuation; Disaster; Tsunami; Communication; Earthquake; Beliefs; Hazard; Flash Flood; Warning; Psychological Reactions; India
Zhang, Jinlei; Chen, Feng; Shen, Qing. (2019). Cluster-based LSTM Network for Short-term Passenger Flow Forecasting in Urban Rail Transit. Ieee Access, 7, 147653 – 147671.
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Abstract
Short-term passenger flow forecasting is an essential component for the operation of urban rail transit (URT). Therefore, it is necessary to obtain a higher prediction precision with the development of URT. As artificial intelligence becomes increasingly prevalent, many prediction methods including the long short-term memory network (LSTM) in the deep learning field have been applied in road transportation systems, which can give critical insights for URT. First, we propose a novel two-step K-Means clustering model to capture not only the passenger flow variation trends but also the ridership volume characteristics. Then, a predictability assessment model is developed to recommend a reasonable time granularity interval to aggregate passenger flows. Based on the clustering results and the recommended time granularity interval, the LSTM model, which is called CB-LSTM model, is proposed to conduct short-term passenger flow forecasting. Results show that the prediction based on subway station clusters can not only avoid the complication of developing numerous models for each of the hundreds of stations, but also improve the prediction performance, which make it possible to predict short-term passenger flow on a network scale using limited dataset. The results provide critical insights for subway operators and transportation policymakers.
Keywords
Traffic Flow; Neural-network; Prediction; Ridership; Models; Volume; Lstm; Short-term Passenger Flow Forecasting; Urban Rail Transit; K-means Clustering; Deep Learning
Mooney, Stephen J.; Bobb, Jennifer F.; Hurvitz, Philip M.; Anau, Jane; Theis, Mary Kay; Drewnowski, Adam; Aggarwal, Anju; Gupta, Shilpi; Rosenberg, Dori E.; Cook, Andrea J.; Shi, Xiao; Lozano, Paula; Moudon, Anne Vernez; Arterburn, David. (2020). Impact of Built Environments on Body Weight (The Moving to Health Study): Protocol for a Retrospective Longitudinal Observational Study. Jmir Research Protocols, 9(5).
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Abstract
Background: Studies assessing the impact of built environments on body weight are often limited by modest power to detect residential effects that are small for individuals but may nonetheless comprise large attributable risks. Objective: We used data extracted from electronic health records to construct a large retrospective cohort of patients. This cohort will be used to explore both the impact of moving between environments and the long-term impact of changing neighborhood environments. Methods: We identified members with at least 12 months of Kaiser Permanente Washington (KPWA) membership and at least one weight measurement in their records during a period between January 2005 and April 2017 in which they lived in King County, Washington. Information on member demographics, address history, diagnoses, and clinical visits data (including weight) was extracted. This paper describes the characteristics of the adult (aged 18-89 years) cohort constructed from these data. Results: We identified 229,755 adults representing nearly 1.2 million person-years of follow-up. The mean age at baseline was 45 years, and 58.0% (133,326/229,755) were female. Nearly one-fourth of people (55,150/229,755) moved within King County at least once during the follow-up, representing 84,698 total moves. Members tended to move to new neighborhoods matching their origin neighborhoods on residential density and property values. Conclusions: Data were available in the KPWA database to construct a very large cohort based in King County, Washington. Future analyses will directly examine associations between neighborhood conditions and longitudinal changes in body weight and diabetes as well as other health conditions.
Keywords
Residential Location Choice; Physical-activity; Risk-factors; Food Desert; Neighborhood; Obesity; Association; Outcomes; Bmi; Accelerometer; Electronic Health Records; Built Environment; Washington; Geography; Longitudinal Studies