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Research Product Types: Journal Article

peer-reviewed article in academic journal

Perceptions and Expected Immediate Reactions to Severe Storm Displays

Jon, Ihnji; Huang, Shih-Kai; Lindell, Michael K. (2019). Perceptions and Expected Immediate Reactions to Severe Storm Displays. Risk Analysis, 39(1), 274 – 290.

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Abstract

The National Weather Service has adopted warning polygons that more specifically indicate the risk area than its previous county-wide warnings. However, these polygons are not defined in terms of numerical strike probabilities (p(s)). To better understand people's interpretations of warning polygons, 167 participants were shown 23 hypothetical scenarios in one of three information conditions-polygon-only (Condition A), polygon + tornadic storm cell (Condition B), and polygon + tornadic storm cell + flanking nontornadic storm cells (Condition C). Participants judged each polygon's p(s) and reported the likelihood of taking nine different response actions. The polygon-only condition replicated the results of previous studies; p(s) was highest at the polygon's centroid and declined in all directions from there. The two conditions displaying storm cells differed from the polygon-only condition only in having p(s) just as high at the polygon's edge nearest the storm cell as at its centroid. Overall, p(s) values were positively correlated with expectations of continuing normal activities, seeking information from social sources, seeking shelter, and evacuating by car. These results indicate that participants make more appropriate p(s) judgments when polygons are presented in their natural context of radar displays than when they are presented in isolation. However, the fact that p(s) judgments had moderately positive correlations with both sheltering (a generally appropriate response) and evacuation (a generally inappropriate response) suggests that experiment participants experience the same ambivalence about these two protective actions as people threatened by actual tornadoes.

Keywords

Decision-making; Tornado; Risk; Communication; Numeracy; Residents; Shelter; Events; Protective Actions; Risk Perceptions; Tornado Warning Polygons; Judgments; Tornadoes; Meteorological Services; Storms; Lymphocytes B; Polygons; Emergency Warning Programs; Evacuation; Displays; Inappropriateness; Weather; Warnings; Conditions; Ambivalence

A Comparative Study on Urban Underground Space Planning System between China and Japan

Yuan, Hong; He, Yuan; Wu, Yuanyuan. (2019). A Comparative Study on Urban Underground Space Planning System between China and Japan. Sustainable Cities And Society, 48.

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Abstract

In China, urban underground space (UUS) planning is still in the exploration stage, and its development is hindered by problems related to local autonomy, systemic deficiency and poor management. This paper compared and analyzed the development status of UUS planning in China and Japan to study the differences in terms of planning objectives, planning structure, and planning content of UUS, and made suggestions for the future development of China's UUS planning system. Since there are many difficulties in underground master planning in China to predict the planning scale of UUS, planning can only serve to provide planning principles and site selections. Instead, the regulatory detailed planning has legal effect in the planning system and becomes the most direct and powerful tool for the government to control and guide the urban land use. Meanwhile, Japan's underground utilization system is guided by urban agglomeration and can provide an important reference for Chinese development in terms of refined design, human concern, regulation, legislation, and coordination. Urgently, China needs to establish a system for UUS planning and management to promote three-dimensional urban development, establish coordination mechanisms for the detailed planning of UUS, and strengthen the planning of underground transportation networks, complexes, and streets.

Keywords

Development Trends; Resources; Comparison Of Underground Space Planningsystem Between China And Japan; Land System; Uus Master Planning; Uus Regulatory Detailed Planning; Three-dimensional Intensification; Legalization; Environmental And Safety

Analyzing Investments in Flood Protection Structures: A Real Options Approach

Gomez-Cunya, Luis-Angel; Fardhosseini, Mohammad Sadra; Lee, Hyun Woo; Choi, Kunhee. (2020). Analyzing Investments in Flood Protection Structures: A Real Options Approach. International Journal Of Disaster Risk Reduction, 43.

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Abstract

The soaring number of natural hazards in recent years due largely to climate change has resulted in an even higher level of investment in flood protection structures. However, such investments tend to be made in the aftermath of disasters. Very little is known about the proactive planning of flood protection investments that account for uncertainties associated with flooding events. Understanding the uncertainties such as when to invest on these structures to achieve the most optimal cost-saving amount is outmost important. This study fills this large knowledge gap by developing an investment decision-making assessment framework that determines an optimal timing of flood protection investment options. It combines real options with a net present value analysis to examine managerial flexibility in various investment timing options. Historical data that contain information about river water discharges were leveraged as a random variable in the modeling framework because it may help investors better understand the probability of extreme events, and particularly, flooding uncertainties. A lattice model was then used to investigate potential alternatives of investment timing and to evaluate the benefits of delaying investments in each case. The efficacy of the proposed framework was demonstrated by an illustrative example of flood protection investment. The framework will be used to help better inform decision makers.

Keywords

Decision-making; Flood Protection; Real Options Theory; Investment Decision-making

Towards a Comparative Framework of Adaptive Planning and Anticipatory Action Regimes in Chile, Japan, and the US: An Exploration of Multiple Contexts Informing Tsunami Risk-based Planning and Relocation

Kuriyama, Naoko; Maly, Elizabeth; Leon, Jorge; Abramson, Daniel; Nguyen, Lan T.; Bostrom, Ann. (2020). Towards a Comparative Framework of Adaptive Planning and Anticipatory Action Regimes in Chile, Japan, and the US: An Exploration of Multiple Contexts Informing Tsunami Risk-based Planning and Relocation. Journal Of Disaster Research, 15(7), 878 – 889.

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Abstract

Coastal regions around the Pacific Ring of Fire share the risk of massive earthquakes and tsunamis. Along with their own political-economic, cultural and biophysical contexts, each region has their own history and experiences of tsunami disasters. Coastal areas of Washington State in the U.S. are currently at risk of experiencing a tsunami following a massive Magnitude 9 (M9) earthquake anticipated in the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ). Looking ahead to consider adaptive planning in advance of a tsunami following this M9 event, this paper explores how lessons from recent megaquake- and tsunami-related experiences of risk-based planning and relocation in coastal areas of Japan and Chile could inform anticipatory action in coastal Washington State. Based on a comparison of earthquake and tsunami hazards, social factors, and the roles of government, this paper outlines a framework to compare policy contexts of tsunami risk-based planning and relocation in three Ring of Fire countries, including factors shaping the possible transfer of approaches between them. Findings suggest some aspects of comparative significance and commonalities shared across coastal communities in the three countries and at the same time highlight numerous differences in governance and policies related to planning and relocation. Although there are limitations to the transferability of lessons in disaster adaptive planning and anticipatory action from one national/regional context to another, we believe there is much more that Washington and the Pacific Northwest can learn from Japanese and Chilean experiences. In any context, risk reduction policies and actions need to garner political support in order to be implemented. Additional case study research and detailed analysis is still needed to understand specific lessons that may be applied to detailed risk-based planning and relocation programs across these different national contexts.

Keywords

Great Earthquake Recurrence; Land-use; Statistical-analyses; Subduction Zone; New-zealand; Community; Recovery; Management; Cascadia; Policies; Risk-based Planning; Earthquake; Tsunami; Disaster Governance; Residential Relocation

Small Increments in Diet Cost Can Improve Compliance with the Dietary Guidelines for Americans

Rose, Chelsea M.; Gupta, Shilpi; Buszkiewicz, James; Ko, Linda K.; Mou, Jin; Cook, Andrea; Moudon, Anne Vernez; Aggarwal, Anju; Drewnowski, Adam. (2020). Small Increments in Diet Cost Can Improve Compliance with the Dietary Guidelines for Americans. Social Science & Medicine, 266.

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Abstract

Adherence to the Dietary Guidelines for Americans (DGA) may involve higher diet costs. This study assessed the relation between two measures of food spending and diet quality among adult participants (N = 768) in the Seattle Obesity Study (SOS III). All participants completed socio-demographic and food expenditure surveys and the Fred Hutch food frequency questionnaire. Dietary intakes were joined with local supermarket prices to estimate individual-level diet costs. Healthy Eating Index (HEI-2015) scores measured compliance with DGA. Multiple linear regressions using Generalized Estimating Equations with robust standard errors showed that lower food spending was associated with younger age, Hispanic ethnicity, and lower socioeconomic status. Even though higher HEI-2015 scores were associated with higher diet costs per 2000 kcal, much individual variability was observed. A positive curvilinear relationship was observed in adjusted models. At lower cost diets, a $100/ month increase in cost (from $150 to $250) was associated with a 20.6% increase in HEI-2015. For higher levels of diet cost (from $350 to $450) there were diminishing returns (2.8% increase in HEI2015). These findings indicate that increases in food spending at the lower end of the range have the most potential to improve diet quality.

Keywords

Healthy Eating Index; Income Inequality; Quality; Obesity; Adults; Expenditure; Disparities; Strategy; Outcomes; Scores; Food Expenditures; Diet Costs; Food Shopping; Diet Quality; Hei-2015; Ses

Differential Associations of the Built Environment on Weight Gain by Sex and Race/Ethnicity but Not Age

Buszkiewicz, James H.; Bobb, Jennifer F.; Kapos, Flavia; Hurvitz, Philip M.; Arterburn, David; Moudon, Anne Vernez; Cook, Andrea; Mooney, Stephen J.; Cruz, Maricela; Gupta, Shilpi; Lozano, Paula; Rosenberg, Dori E.; Theis, Mary Kay; Anau, Jane; Drewnowski, Adam. (2021). Differential Associations of the Built Environment on Weight Gain by Sex and Race/Ethnicity but Not Age. International Journal Of Obesity, 45(12), 2648 – 2656.

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Abstract

Objective To explore the built environment (BE) and weight change relationship by age, sex, and racial/ethnic subgroups in adults. Methods Weight trajectories were estimated using electronic health records for 115,260 insured Kaiser Permanente Washington members age 18-64 years. Member home addresses were geocoded using ArcGIS. Population, residential, and road intersection densities and counts of area supermarkets and fast food restaurants were measured with SmartMaps (800 and 5000-meter buffers) and categorized into tertiles. Linear mixed-effect models tested whether associations between BE features and weight gain at 1, 3, and 5 years differed by age, sex, and race/ethnicity, adjusting for demographics, baseline weight, and residential property values. Results Denser urban form and greater availability of supermarkets and fast food restaurants were associated with differential weight change across sex and race/ethnicity. At 5 years, the mean difference in weight change comparing the 3rd versus 1st tertile of residential density was significantly different between males (-0.49 kg, 95% CI: -0.68, -0.30) and females (-0.17 kg, 95% CI: -0.33, -0.01) (P-value for interaction = 0.011). Across race/ethnicity, the mean difference in weight change at 5 years for residential density was significantly different among non-Hispanic (NH) Whites (-0.47 kg, 95% CI: -0.61, -0.32), NH Blacks (-0.86 kg, 95% CI: -1.37, -0.36), Hispanics (0.10 kg, 95% CI: -0.46, 0.65), and NH Asians (0.44 kg, 95% CI: 0.10, 0.78) (P-value for interaction <0.001). These findings were consistent for other BE measures. Conclusion The relationship between the built environment and weight change differs across demographic groups. Careful consideration of demographic differences in associations of BE and weight trajectories is warranted for investigating etiological mechanisms and guiding intervention development.

Keywords

Body-mass Index; Socioeconomic-status; Food Environment; Obesity; Health; Outcomes; Scale; Risk; Minority & Ethnic Groups; Urban Environments; Etiology; Demographics; Sex; Residential Density; Supermarkets; Age; Race; Ethnicity; Property Values; Body Weight Gain; Electronic Medical Records; Fast Food; Electronic Health Records; Real Estate; Subgroups; Demography; Trajectory Analysis; Weight

Physical Activity Measurement in Children Who Use Mobility Assistive Devices: Accelerometry and Global Positioning System

Kerfeld, Cheryl I.; Hurvitz, Philip M.; Bjornson, Kristie F. (2021). Physical Activity Measurement in Children Who Use Mobility Assistive Devices: Accelerometry and Global Positioning System. Pediatric Physical Therapy, 33(2), 92 – 99.

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Abstract

Purpose: To explore the usefulness of combining accelerometry, global positioning systems, and geographic information systems, to describe the time spent in different locations and physical activity (PA) duration/count levels by location for 4 children with cerebral palsy (CP) who use assistive devices (AD). Methods: A descriptive multiple-case study. Results: Combining the 3 instruments was useful in describing and differentiating duration by location, and amount and location of PA across differing functional levels and AD. For example, the child classified with a Gross Motor Function Classification System (GMFCS) level II exhibited large amounts of PA in community settings. In contrast, the child classified with a GMFCS level V had small amounts of PA and spent most measured time at home. Conclusions: Combined accelerometry, global positioning system, and geographic information system have potential to capture time spent and amount/intensity of PA relative to locations within daily environments for children with CP who use AD.

Keywords

Cerebral-palsy; Objective Measures; Fitness; Youth; Disabilities; Adolescents; Exercise; Adults; Accelerometer; Cerebral Palsy; Environment; Global Positioning System; Mobility Assistive Devices; Physical Activity

Triggering a Climate Change Dominated Anthropocene: Is it Common Among Exocivilizations

Savitch, Ethan; Frank, Adam; Carroll-Nellenback, Jonathan; Haqq-Misra, Jacob; Kleidon, Axel; Alberti, Marina. (2021). Triggering a Climate Change Dominated Anthropocene: Is it Common Among Exocivilizations? Astronomical Journal, 162(5).

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Abstract

We seek to model the coupled evolution of a civilization and its host planet through the era when energy harvesting by the civilization drives the planet into new and adverse climate states. In this way, we ask if triggering Anthropocenes of the kind humanity is experiencing might be a generic feature of planet-civilization evolution. This question has direct consequences for both the study of astrobiology and the sustainability of human civilization. Furthermore, if Anthropocenes prove fatal for some civilizations then they can be considered as one form of a Great Filter and are therefore relevant to discussions of the Fermi Paradox. In this study, we focus on the effects of energy harvesting via combustion and vary the planet's initial chemistry and orbital radius. We find that in this context, the most influential parameter dictating a civilization's fate is their host planet's climate sensitivity, which quantifies how global temperatures change as CO2 is added to the atmosphere. Furthermore, this is in itself a function of the planet's atmospheric CO2 level, so planets with low levels of CO2 will have high climate sensitivities and high probabilities of triggering climate change. Using simulations of the coupled nonlinear model combined with semi-analytic treatments, we find that most planets in our initial parameter space experience diminished growth due to climate effects, an event we call a climate-dominated Anthropocene.

Keywords

Habitable Planets; Complex Life; Evolution; Earth

A Three-Dimensional Approach to the Extended Limit Analysis of Reinforced Masonry

Roca, Pere; Liew, Andrew; Block, Philippe; Lopez, David Lopez; Echenagucia, Tomás Méndez; Van Mele, Tom. (2022). A Three-Dimensional Approach to the Extended Limit Analysis of Reinforced Masonry. Structures, 35, 1062 – 1077.

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Abstract

The Extended Limit Analysis of Reinforced Masonry (ELARM) is a simple and user-friendly method for the design and structural analysis of singly-curved, reinforced tile vaults [1]. It is based on limit analysis but takes into account the reinforcement's contribution to the composite cross-section's bending capacity.& nbsp;A three-dimensional approach to ELARM is presented in this paper. The theoretical framework to understand the implications and limitations of extending ELARM to fully 3D structures is described, together with the strategies to carry out the leap from 2D to 3D. This extension is a lower-bound approach for the design of reinforced masonry, reinforced concrete and concrete-masonry composite shells and the assessment of their strength and stability against external loading.& nbsp;The new, extended method is implemented computationally to speed up the iterative processes, provide quick structural feedback, offer immediate results and allow for user-interactive form-finding and optimisation procedures. Different applications of the developed tool are described through the presentation of examples, including reinforcement optimisation, a form-finding process and a case with a shape beyond funicular geometry.

Keywords

Tile Vault; Masonry; Reinforced Brick; Formwork; Concrete Shells; Limit Analysis; Thrust Network Analysis; Extended Limit Analysis Of Reinforced Masonry; Tile Vaults