Shakouri, Mahmoud; Lee, Hyun Woo; Kim, Yong-woo. (2017). A Probabilistic Portfolio-Based Model for Financial Valuation of Community Solar. Applied Energy, 191, 709 – 726.
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Abstract
Community solar has emerged in recent years as an alternative to overcome the limitations of individual rooftop photovoltaic (PV) systems. However, there is no existing model available to support probabilistic valuation and design of community solar based on the uncertain nature of system performance over time. In response, the present study applies the Mean-Variance Portfolio Theory to develop a probabilistic model that can be used to increase electricity generation or reduce volatility in community solar. The study objectives include identifying the sources of uncertainties in PV valuation, developing a probabilistic model that incorporates the identified uncertainties into portfolios, and providing potential investors in community solar with realistic financial indicators. This study focuses on physical, environmental, and financial uncertainties to construct a set of optimized portfolios. Monte Carlo simulation is then performed to calculate the return on investment (ROI) and the payback period of each portfolio. Lastly, inclusion vs. exclusion of generation and export tariffs are compared for each financial indicator. The results show that the portfolio with the maximum output offers the highest ROI and shortest payback period while the portfolio with the minimum risk indicates the lowest ROI and longest payback period. This study also reveals that inclusion of tariffs can significantly influence the financial indicators, even more than the other identified uncertainties. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords
Solar Energy; Photovoltaic Power Systems; Monte Carlo Method; Market Volatility; Energy Economics; Community Solar; Monte Carlo Simulation; Photovoltaic Systems; Portfolio Theory; Uncertainty; Environmental Uncertainties; Financial Indicator; Financial Uncertainties; Physical Uncertainties; Identified Uncertainties; Probabilistic Model; Mean-variance Portfolio Theory; Probabilistic Valuation; Individual Rooftop Photovoltaic Systems; Financial Valuation; Probabilistic Portfolio-based Model; Investment; Monte Carlo Methods; Photovoltaic Cells; Risk Analysis; Tariffs; Resolution Lidar Data; Electricity Consumption; Pv Systems; Autoregressive Models; Potential Assessment; Generation Systems; Neural-networks; Energy; Buildings; Economic Theory; Electricity; Exports; Probabilistic Models; Risk
Adhikari, Pramodit; Mahmoud, Hussam; Xie, Aiwen; Simonen, Kathrina; Ellingwood, Bruce. (2020). Life-Cycle Cost and Carbon Footprint Analysis for Light-framed Residential Buildings Subjected to Tornado Hazard. Journal Of Building Engineering, 32.
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Abstract
Light-frame wood building construction dominates the single-family residential home market in the United States. Such buildings are susceptible to damage from extreme winds due to hurricanes in coastal areas and tornados in the Midwest. The consequences of extreme winds on the built environment and on social and economic institutions within the community can be severe and are likely to increase in the coming decades as a result of increases in urbanization and economic development and the potential impacts of changing climate in hazard prone areas. Current building practices provide minimum standards for occupant safety and health, including structural integrity, water and sanitation, lighting, ventilation, means of egress and fire protection. However, they generally do not consider building resilience, which includes robustness and an ability to recover following extreme natural hazard events. Nor do they address sustainability, the notion that building design, construction and rehabilitation should not adversely impact the environment. In this paper, we establish a generalized cost and carbon footprint life-cycle analysis methodology for examining the benefits of different building practices for residential light-frame wood construction subjected to tornado hazards. A multiobjective approach is used to reveal tradeoffs between resilient and sustainable practices for typical residential construction. We show that when the life cycle of a typical residence is considered, a balance between resilience, sustainability and cost might be achieved in design and rehabilitation of residential building construction for tornado hazards.
Keywords
Performance; Risk; Fragility; Residential Buildings; Life-cycle Analysis; Resilience; Optimal Decisions; Sustainable Construction; Tornadoes
Su, Shu; Li, Xiaodong; Zhu, Chen; Lu, Yujie; Lee, Hyun Woo. (2021). Dynamic Life Cycle Assessment: A Review of Research for Temporal Variations in Life Cycle Assessment Studies. Environmental Engineering Science, 38(11), 1013 – 1026.
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Abstract
Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a comprehensive and important environmental management tool around the world. However, lacking temporal information has been a major challenge. In the past decade, dynamic LCA (DLCA), which incorporates temporal variations into assessment, has been an emerging research topic with increasing publications. A timely comprehensive review is needed to present current progress and discuss future directions. This article reviews 144 DLCA articles quantitatively and qualitatively. A bibliometric approach is adopted to conduct co-occurrence analysis and cluster analysis of DLCA studies. The research progress, approaches, and limitations of three temporal variation types (i.e., dynamic life cycle inventory, dynamic characterization factors, and dynamic weighting factors) in DLCA studies are systematically analyzed and discussed. It is concluded that: (1) dynamic inventory analysis is usually conducted by collecting time-differentiated data at each time step. Field monitoring, simulation, scenario analysis, and prediction based on historical data are common approaches. (2) Dynamic characterization studies primarily focus on two impact categories: global warming and toxicity. More studies are in need. (3) Various methods and indicators (i.e., dynamic pollution damage cost, temporal environmental policy targets, and discount rates) are used to solve the dynamic weighting issue, and they have specific limitations. Finally, three interesting topics are discussed: comparison between dynamic and static results, the large data amount issue, and the trend of tools development. This review offers a holistic view on temporal variations in DLCA studies and provides reference and directions for future dynamic studies.
Keywords
Literature Reviews; Cluster Analysis (statistics); Global Warming; Environmental Management; Discount Prices; Emission Inventories; Dynamic Characterization; Dynamic Inventory Analysis; Dynamic Weighting; Environmental Impact; Life Cycle Assessment; Temporal Variation; Cluster Analysis; Life Cycle; 'current; Dynamic Inventory Analyse; Dynamic Lca; Environmental Management Tool; Inventory Analysis; Research Topics; Temporal Information; Dependent Climate Impact; Greenhouse-gas Emission; Biogenic Carbon; Assessment Framework; Fresh-water; Electricity-generation; Energy Efficiency; Wheat Production; Embodied Energy; Time
The EarthLab Innovations Grant Program was launched in 2019 to fund actionable environmental research. The 2022-23 EarthLab Innovation Grants program received 33 high-quality proposals for research at the intersection of climate change and social justice. One awarded project titled, “Centering Place and Community to Address Climate Change and Social Justice” was led by P.I. Daniel Abramson, Associate Professor of Urban Design & Planning and Adjunct Associate Professor of Architecture & Landscape Architecture, and Community Lead, Jamie Judkins, of the Shoalwater…
ARPA-E announced $5 million in funding to two universities—the University of Washington and University of California, Davis—working to develop life cycle assessment tools and frameworks associated with transforming buildings into net carbon storage structures. The funding is part of the Harnessing Emissions into Structures Taking Inputs from the Atmosphere (HESTIA) Exploratory Topic. Parametric Open Data for Life Cycle Assessment (POD | LCA) – $3,744,303 The University of Washington’s Carbon Leadership Forum will develop a rigorous and flexible parametric Life Cycle Assessment (LCA)…
The University of Washington Population Health Initiative announced the award of 11 Tier 1 pilot grants to teams representing researchers from nine different UW schools and colleges as well as UW Tacoma and numerous community-based partners. The collective value of these 11 awards was nearly $480,000, which included approximately $270,000 in funding from the initiative plus additional school, college and departmental matching funds. Among the award recipients was a project titled “Amazonian Green Cities: A Gardens Program for Health Ecology and…
Research Interests: Urban resilience, disaster risk reduction, climate change, community engagement.
Research Interests: Urban Sustainability Indicators, Small Island Developing States, Climate Change, Natural Resource Management, Urban Design.
Julie Kriegh, researcher with the Carbon Leadership Forum and other CBE research centers, and owner of Kriegh Architecture Studios, collaborated with other CBE faculty and external partners to lead a UW CBE studio course in collaboration with Google that developed and delivered a design proposal for a sustainable data center. CBE collaborators included Hyun Woo “Chris” Lee, P.D. Koon Professorship in Construction Management; Jan Whittington, Associate Professor of the Department of Urban Design and Planning, and Director of the Urban…
Living Landscapes Incubator is a recently awarded project led by School of Environmental and Forest Sciences‘ Joshua Lawler along with Co-Principal Investigators Dan Brown (Director, School of Environmental and Forest Sciences), Jen Davison (Director, Urban@UW, Assistant Dean of Research, College of Built Environments), Ken Yocom (Chair, Landscape Architecture; Interim Faculty Director, Urban@UW), and Mike Yost (Chair, Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences). In the last year, the global pandemic and the restrictions that have followed have shown how important…