Schmiedeskamp, Peter; Zhao, Weiran. (2016). Estimating Daily Bicycle Counts in Seattle, Washington, from Seasonal and Weather Factors. Transportation Research Record, 2593, 94 – 102.
View Publication
Abstract
This paper examines the relationship between several seasonal and weather factors and bicycle ridership from 2 years of automated bicycle counts at a location in Seattle, Washington. The authors fitted a negative binomial model and then estimated quantities of interest using counterfactual simulation. The findings confirm the significance of season (+), temperature (+), precipitation (), as well as holidays (-), day of the week (+ for Monday through Saturday, relative to Sunday), and an overall trend (+). This paper improves on prior work by demonstrating the use of the negative binomial instead of a Poisson model, which is appropriate given the potential for overdispersion, as observed in these data. In addition to validating the significance of factors identified from the literature, this paper contributes methodologically through its intuitive visualization of effect sizes to nonstatistical audiences. The authors believe that the combination of model type and counterfactual simulation and visualization reflects a reasonable compromise between model complexity and interpretability. Results such as these can aid policy makers and planners in understanding bicycle travel demand elasticities and in guiding interventions aimed at increasing rates of bicycling. The methods presented are fully reproducible and invite adaptation to other locations.
Chen, Peng; Liu, Qian; Sun, Feiyang. (2018). Bicycle Parking Security and Built Environments. Transportation Research: Part D, 62, 169 – 178.
View Publication
Abstract
The lack of secure bicycle parking is a serious but often neglected issue that discourages bicycling. Classical environment criminology theories try to explain the pattern of bicycle theft but provide limited insights into the relationship between crime and the built environment. This study examines the association between built environment factors and bicycle theft using a zero inflated negative binomial model to account for data over-dispersion and excess zeros. The assembled dataset provides variables pertaining to the road network, land use, bicycle travel demand, and socio-demographics. The key findings are as follows: (1) Bicycle theft is more likely to occur in areas for commercial purposes, areas with a high population or employment density, and areas with more bike lanes or sidewalks. (2) Bicycle theft is likely to occur at sites with more bike racks or bus stops. (3) Bicycle theft is more likely to occur at mid-blocks than at intersections. (4) Bicycle theft is more likely to occur in neighborhoods with a greater percentage of socially disadvantaged people and in neighborhoods where residents' median age is lower. (5) The likelihood of losing a bicycle is lower in areas with more bicycle trips. In general, the number of bicycle thefts increases in dense areas with more targets and decreases with greater natural guardianship provided by more passersby. With respect to policy implications, governments and transport planners should implement a geographically-differentiated surveillance strategy, encourage bicycling, improve the visibility of bike racks to the public, and promote surveillance and natural guardianship in densely developed areas.
Keywords
Bicycle Parking; Cycling; Bicycle Theft; Sociodemographic Factors; Bicycles; Environmental Aspects; Built Environment; Environment Criminology; Urban Design; Zero-inflated Negative Binomial Model; Crime; Theft; Risk; Opportunities; Behavior; Travel
Moudon, Anne Vernez; Huang, Ruizhu; Stewart, Orion T.; Cohen-Cline, Hannah; Noonan, Carolyn; Hurvitz, Philip M.; Duncan, Glen E. (2019). Probabilistic Walking Models Using Built Environment and Sociodemographic Predictors. Population Health Metrics, 17(1).
View Publication
Abstract
BackgroundIndividual sociodemographic and home neighborhood built environment (BE) factors influence the probability of engaging in health-enhancing levels of walking or moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA). Methods are needed to parsimoniously model the associations.MethodsParticipants included 2392 adults drawn from a community-based twin registry living in the Seattle region. Objective BE measures from four domains (regional context, neighborhood composition, destinations, transportation) were taken for neighborhood sizes of 833 and 1666 road network meters from home. Hosmer and Lemeshow's methods served to fit logistic regression models of walking and MVPA outcomes using sociodemographic and BE predictors. Backward elimination identified variables included in final models, and comparison of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves determined model fit improvements.ResultsBuilt environment variables associated with physical activity were reduced from 86 to 5 or fewer. Sociodemographic and BE variables from all four BE domains were associated with activity outcomes but differed by activity type and neighborhood size. For the study population, ROC comparisons indicated that adding BE variables to a base model of sociodemographic factors did not improve the ability to predict walking or MVPA.ConclusionsUsing sociodemographic and built environment factors, the proposed approach can guide the estimation of activity prediction models for different activity types, neighborhood sizes, and discrete BE characteristics. Variables associated with walking and MVPA are population and neighborhood BE-specific.
Keywords
Walking; Confidence Intervals; Research Funding; Transportation; Logistic Regression Analysis; Built Environment; Socioeconomic Factors; Predictive Validity; Receiver Operating Characteristic Curves; Data Analysis Software; Descriptive Statistics; Psychology; Washington (state); Active Travel; Home Neighborhood Domains; Physical Activity; Physical-activity; United-states; Life Stage; Adults; Attributes; Health; Associations; Destination; Pitfalls
Abu Ashour, Lamis; Dannenberg, Andrew L.; Shen, Qing; Fang, Xun; Wang, Yiyuan. (2021). Paratransit Services For People With Disabilities In The Seattle Region During The Covid-19 Pandemic: Lessons For Recovery Planning. Journal Of Transport & Health, 22.
View Publication
Abstract
Introduction: Along with all public transit services, paratransit services for people with disabilities experienced substantially reduced demand and an increased need to provide equitable services while protecting their clients and staff's safety during the COVID-19 pandemic. Paratransit services provide a lifeline for their clients' essential mobility needs, including access to medical appointments and grocery stores. In the absence of pre-existing pandemic response plans, examining transit agencies' responses to provide paratransit services during the pandemic can help inform planning for post-pandemic recovery and future disruptive events. Methods: In September 2020, we conducted semi-structured interviews with 15 decision-makers, planners, and drivers working for the primary transit agency in the Seattle region - King County Metro - and its paratransit contractors. Interview questions were designed to identify current services, policy gaps, and critical challenges for recovery planning and post-pandemic paratransit services. Interview transcripts were analyzed using NVivo software to obtain essential themes. Results: The interviewees provided insights about (1) paratransit service changes in response to the pandemic, (2) anticipated impacts of a returning demand on paratransit service efficiency, equity, and quality during the recovery period, and (3) innovative approaches for maintaining post-pandemic equitable paratransit services while balancing safety measures with available resources. Conclusions: Study findings suggest that paratransit service providers should consider (1) developing guidelines for future disruptive events, (2) examining alternative methods for food delivery to clients, (3) planning scenarios for delivering equitable services in the post-pandemic recovery period, and (4) increasing resilience possibly by establishing partnerships with transportation network companies.
Keywords
Paratransit; Mobility; Equity; Covid19 Pandemic; Scenario Planning; Recovery
Wang, Yunhong; Lee, Hyun Woo; Tang, Wenzhe; Whittington, Jan; Qiang, Maoshan. (2021). Structural Equation Modeling for the Determinants of International Infrastructure Investment: Evidence from Chinese Contractors. Journal Of Management In Engineering, 37(4).
View Publication
Abstract
International infrastructure investment can effectively accelerate infrastructure development in developing countries and thus support their social and economic progress. However, little is known of the factors that may determine the flow of international infrastructure investment to those countries. This study aims to bridge that knowledge gap, first by identifying the determinants of international infrastructure investment, and then by developing a structural equation model to reveal their underlying interrelationships. The structural equation model is applied to country-level data regarding international infrastructure investment with Chinese contractors in 141 countries worldwide over the 9-year period from 2009 to 2017. The results show that three determinants, namely infrastructure quality, labor supply, and investment interdependency, have a positive relationship with a country's international infrastructure investment inflow. However, another determinant, institutional environment, has a significantly negative impact, which suggests that when making foreign infrastructure investment, Chinese contractors enter countries with a comparatively poor institutional environment with substantial political risks. The results also highlight how much a robust infrastructure development plan can help developing countries avoid the poor-infrastructure trap, a situation in which poor infrastructure quality discourages international infrastructure investment. These research findings may assist international infrastructure investment firms to make informed decisions with regard to financing and managing projects and help policymakers who focus on attracting foreign investment in infrastructure.
Keywords
Foreign Direct-investment; Public-private Partnerships; Economic-growth; Transport Infrastructure; Developing-countries; Labor Productivity; Fit Indexes; Location; Energy; Firms; Infrastructure Investment; Institutional Environment; Infrastructure Quality; Foreign Direct Investment (fdi) Interdependency; Structure Equation Modeling; Belt And Road Initiative
Stewart, Orion. (2011). Findings from Research on Active Transportation to School and Implications for Safe Routes to School Programs. Journal Of Planning Literature, 26(2), 127 – 150.
View Publication
Abstract
This literature review identified common factors associated with active transportation to school (ATS). It used a conceptual framework of a child's commute mode to school to classify 480 variables from forty-two studies that were tested for association with ATS. Four factors most frequently influenced ATS: distance, income, traffic and crime fears, and parental attitudes and schedules. Regular ATS results in more physical activity but research is lacking on other outcomes. Safe Routes to School, a program designed to increase rates and safety of ATS, can use an understanding of these influences and outcomes to more effectively allocate its limited resources.
Keywords
Physical-activity Levels; Travel Mode; Urban Form; Environmental-factors; Elementary-schools; Weight Status; Walking; Children; Prevalence; Bus; Active Transportation To School; Safe Routes To School; Biking
Dannenberg, Andrew L.; Ricklin, Anna; Ross, Catherine L.; Schwartz, Michael; West, Julie; White, Steve; Wier, Megan L. (2014). Use of Health Impact Assessment for Transportation Planning Importance of Transportation Agency Involvement in the Process. Transportation Research Record, 2452, 71 – 80.
View Publication
Abstract
A health impact assessment (HIA) is a tool that can be used to inform transportation planners of the potential health consequences of their decisions. Although dozens of transportation-related HIAs have been completed in the United States, the characteristics of these HIAs and the interactions between public health professionals and transportation decision makers in these HIM have not been documented. A master list of completed HIAs was used to identify transportation-related HIAs. Seventy-three transportation-related HIAs conducted in 22 states between 2004 and 2013 were identified. The HIAs were conducted for projects such as road redevelopments, bridge replacements, and development of trails and public transit. Policies such as road pricing, transit service levels, speed limits, complete streets, and safe routes to schools were also assessed. Five HIAs in which substantial interactions between public health and transportation professionals took place during and after the HIA were examined in detail and included HIAs of the road pricing policy in San Francisco, California; a bridge replacement in Seattle, Washington; new transit lines in Baltimore, Maryland, and Portland, Oregon; and the BeltLine transit, trails, and parks project in Atlanta, Georgia. Recommendations from the HIAs led to changes in decisions in some cases and helped to raise awareness of health issues by transportation decision makers in all cases. HIAs are now used for many topics in transportation. The range of involvement of transportation decision makers in the conduct of HIAs varies. These case studies may serve as models for the conduct of future transportation-related HIAs, because the involvement of transportation agencies may increase the likelihood that an HIA will influence subsequent decisions.
Keywords
Policy; Inequalities; Benefits; Justice; Oregon
Wilson, A. Meriwether W.; Mugerauer, Robert; Klinger, Terrie. (2015). Rethinking Marine Infrastructure Policy and Practice: Insights from Three Large-Scale Marina Developments in Seattle. Marine Policy, 53, 67 – 82.
View Publication
Abstract
The global transformation of the marine nearshore is generating profound losses of ecological and geomorphological functions and ecosystem services, as natural environments are replaced with built. With conservation a diminishing option and restoration often unrealistic, there is a need to rethink development and the potential for marine infrastructure to contribute to net environmental gain. Through analysis of 150 years of change associated with the development of three large-scale marinas in the Seattle area, this research identifies the ways in which evolving policy frameworks and ecological understanding determine the nature, efficiency and environmental outcomes of coastal marine developments. Decisions on infrastructure design, mitigation strategies and policy interpretations directly determined the ecological fate of marine biota inhabiting these structures as well as surrounding ecosystems. In spite of increasing evidence of environmental legislation driving mitigation and innovative engineering, the net ecological trajectories remained negative. There were no tested demonstrations of marine mitigation to confirm which measures would succeed. Where scientific understanding existed, the uptake into planning and legislation was slow. More broadly, this research highlights a need and opportunity to consider marine infrastructure as living laboratories to inform a policy shift from a no-net-loss paradigm to net-environmental-gain. This evolution is timely, with sea level rise requiring new approaches to coastal defenses and with marine energy infrastructure increasingly being located offshore, where there is little knowledge of the ecological changes occurring in both time and space. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords
Coastal; Restoration; Landscape; Habitats; Science; Driver; Areas; Act; Marine Coastal Infrastructure; Ecological Mitigation; Novel Marine Habitats; Environmental Governance; Pacific Northwest
Shen, Qing; Chen, Peng; Pan, Haixiao. (2016). Factors Affecting Car Ownership and Mode Choice in Rail Transit-Supported Suburbs of a Large Chinese City. Transportation Research Part A: Policy & Practice, 94, 31 – 44.
View Publication
Abstract
As Chinese cities continue to grow rapidly and their newly developed suburbs continue to accommodate most of the enormous population increase, rail transit is seen as the key to counter automobile dependence. This paper examines the effects of rail transit-supported urban expansion using travel survey data collected from residents in four Shanghai suburban neighborhoods, including three located near metro stations. Estimated binary logit model of car ownership and nested logit model of commuting mode choice reveal that: (1) proximity to metro stations has a significant positive association with the choice of rail transit as primary commuting mode, but its association with car ownership is insignificant; (2) income, job status, and transportation subsidy are all positively associated with the probabilities of owning car and driving it to work; (3) higher population density in work location relates positively to the likelihood of commuting by the metro, but does not show a significant relationship with car ownership; (4) longer commuting distance is strongly associated with higher probabilities of riding the metro, rather than driving, to work; (5) considerations of money, time, comfort, and safety appear to exert measurable influences on car ownership and mode choice in the expected directions, and the intention to ride the metro for commuting is reflected in its actual use as primary mode for journey to work. These results strongly suggest that rail transit-supported urban expansion can produce important positive outcomes, and that this strategic approach can be effectively facilitated by transportation policies and land use plans, as well as complemented by timely provision of high quality rail transit service to suburban residents. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords
Railroads; Public Transit; Choice Of Transportation; Automobile Ownership; Transportation; Suburbanization; China; Automobile Dependence; Large Chinese Cities; Rail Transit; Shanghai; Urban Expansion; Built Environment; Travel Behavior; Self-selection; Impact; Areas
Chen, Peng; Shen, Qing; Childress, Suzanne. (2018). A GPS Data-based Analysis of Built Environment Influences on Bicyclist Route Preferences. International Journal Of Sustainable Transportation, 12(3), 218 – 231.
View Publication
Abstract
This study examines the effects of built environment features, including factors of land use and road network, on bicyclists' route preferences using the data from the city of Seattle. The bicycle routes are identified using a GPS dataset collected from a smartphone application named CycleTracks. The route choice set is generated using the labeling route approach, and the cost functions of route alternatives are based on principal component analyses. Then, two mixed logit models, focusing on random parameters and alternative-specific coefficients, respectively, are estimated to examine bicyclists' route choice. The major findings of this study are as follows: (1) the bicycle route choice involves the joint consideration of convenience, safety, and leisure; (2) most bicyclists prefer to cycle on shorter, flat, and well-planned bicycle facilities with slow road traffic; (3) some bicyclists prefer routes surrounded by mixed land use; (4) some bicyclists favor routes which are planted with street trees or installed with street lights; and (5) some bicyclists prefer routes along with city features. This analysis provides valuable insights into how well-planned land use and road network can facilitate efficient, safe, and enjoyable bicycling.
Keywords
Cyclists; Mobile Apps; Multiple Correspondence Analysis (statistics); Traffic Engineering; Cycling; Bicycle Route Choice; Built Environment; Labeling Routes; Mixed Logit Model; Principal Component Analysis; Smartphone GPS Data; Choice Sets; Safe Routes; Walking; Models; Health; Infrastructure; Facilities; California; Networks