Lindell, Michael K.; Arlikatti, Sudha; Huang, Shih-kai. (2019). Immediate Behavioral Response to the June 17, 2013 Flash Floods in Uttarakhand, North India. International Journal Of Disaster Risk Reduction, 34, 129 – 146.
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Abstract
The 2013 Uttarakhand flash flood was such a surprise for those at risk that the predominant source of information for their risk was environmental cues and, secondarily, peer warnings rather than official warnings. Of those who received warnings, few received information other than the identity of the flood threat. A survey of 316 survivors found that most people's first response was to immediately evacuate but some stayed to receive additional information, confirm their warnings, or engage in evacuation preparations. Unfortunately, engaging in these milling behaviors necessarily delayed their final evacuations. Mediation analysis revealed that psychological reactions mediated the relationship between information sources and behavioral responses. Further analyses revealed that immediate evacuation and evacuation delay were both predicted best by information search and positive affect, but correlation analyses indicated that a number of other models were also plausible. Final evacuation was best predicted by immediate evacuation and, to a significantly lesser extent, household together. Overall, results suggest that the Protective Action Decision Model (PADM) should be considered a useful framework for examining household responses to flash floods in developing countries like India. It supports the conclusion that a household's first warning source is a function of two distinct detection and dissemination systems within a community-an official system and an informal system. However, it fails to capture what pre-impact emergency preparedness entails for rapid onset events in a developing country context. Further research is needed to determine the relative importance of situational and cultural characteristics in producing these observed differences.
Keywords
Risk Perception; Mental Models; Warnings; Evacuation; Disaster; Tsunami; Communication; Earthquake; Beliefs; Hazard; Flash Flood; Warning; Psychological Reactions; India
Chen, Chen; Wang, Haizhong; Lindell, Michael K.; Jung, Meen Chel; Siam, M. R. K. (2022). Tsunami Preparedness And Resilience: Evacuation Logistics And Time Estimations. Transportation Research Part D-transport And Environment, 109.
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Abstract
Extensive research has studied the near-field tsunami threat in the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ), but little research has examined the ability to evacuate the inundation zone before the first tsunami wave arrives. To address this gap, this study provides empirical evidence about people's expectations about hazard onset and evacuation logistics when a tsunami threatens. We surveyed households in five CSZ communities to assess residents' expected first wave arrival time, as well as their expectations about evacuation destinations, route choices, preparation times, travel times, and clearance times. Heatmaps are used to summarize residents' evacuation destinations and route choices, and probabilistic functions are used to model evacuation distances and time estimates. The results suggest that respondents have similar patterns of time estimates, but a few plan to evacuate within the inundation zone, and some plan to evacuate on routes that were congested in a previous event and end their evacuations at destinations within the inundation zone.
Keywords
Disaster; Tsunami Evacuation; Time Estimate; Cascadia Subduction Zone; Behavior; Decision-making; American-samoa; Earthquake; Oregon; Washington; Wellington; Responses; Hazard; Model
El-Anwar, Omar; Ye, Jin; Orabi, Wallied. (2016). Innovative Linear Formulation for Transportation Reconstruction Planning. Journal Of Computing In Civil Engineering, 30(3).
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Abstract
Following disasters, the pace of restoring transportation networks can have a significant impact on economic and societal recovery. However, reconstruction and repair efforts are typically faced by budget constraints that require careful selection among competing contractors. This paper presents an innovative formulation to optimize this complex planning problem in order to maximize the rate of transportation network recovery while minimizing the associated reconstruction costs. This study first contributes to the body of knowledge by offering an effective and efficient means of identifying the optimal schedules for reconstruction projects and the optimal contractor assignments. This is achieved by solving the problem using a new mixed-integer linear programming model. However, there are four main formulation challenges to represent this problem using linear equations because of the need to use logical operators. As such, the second contribution of this study is in offering innovative solutions to overcome these formulation challenges, which are generalizable to other construction scheduling and planning problems. This paper is companion to another paper that describes a holistic optimization and traffic assessment methodology for post-disaster reconstruction planning for damaged transportation networks. (C) 2015 American Society of Civil Engineers.
Keywords
Integer Programming; Linear Programming; Transportation; Innovative Linear Formulation; Transportation Reconstruction Planning; Economic Recovery; Societal Recovery; Complex Planning Problem; Transportation Network Recovery; Mixed-integer Linear Programming Model; Traffic Assessment Methodology; Postdisaster Reconstruction Planning; Natural Disasters; Housing Projects; Construction; Optimization; Performance; Robustness; Earthquake; Efficiency; Recovery; Plans; Transportation Network Reconstruction; Post-disaster Recovery; Multi-objective Optimization; Mixed-integer Linear Programming; Contractors Assignment; Linear Formulation; Reconstruction Costs
Lindell, Michael K.; House, Donald H.; Gestring, Jordan; Wu, Hao-Che. (2019). A Tutorial on Dynasearch: A Web-Based System for Collecting Process-Tracing Data in Dynamic Decision Tasks. Behavior Research Methods, 51(6), 2646 – 2660.
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Abstract
This tutorial describes DynaSearch, a Web-based system that supports process-tracing experiments on coupled-system dynamic decision-making tasks. A major need in these tasks is to examine the process by which decision makers search over a succession of situation reports for the information they need in order to make response decisions. DynaSearch provides researchers with the ability to construct and administer Web-based experiments containing both between- and within-subjects factors. Information search pages record participants' acquisition of verbal, numeric, and graphic information. Questionnaire pages query participants' recall of information, inferences from that information, and decisions about appropriate response actions. Experimenters can access this information in an online viewer to verify satisfactory task completion and can download the data in comma-separated text files that can be imported into statistical analysis packages.
Keywords
Downloading; Text Files; Tasks; Access To Information; Statistics; Dynamic Decision Making; Process Tracing; Web-based Experiments; Information Search; Human-behavior; Eye-tracking; Choice; Expectations; Strategies; Mousetrap; Software; Time
Ge, Yue ‘gurt’; Lindell, Michael K. (2016). County Planners’ Perceptions of Land-Use Planning Tools for Environmental Hazard Mitigation: A Survey in the US Pacific States. Environment And Planning B-planning & Design, 43(4), 716 – 736.
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Abstract
Land-use planning tools have been extensively applied in the U.S. to achieve environmental sustainability and disaster resiliency for local communities. An important issue related to land-use planning tools is planners' beliefs about the ways in which these tools differ from each other and, thus, how planners choose among these tools for environmental hazard mitigation. A web-based survey collected data from planners in counties (or boroughs) in the five U.S. Pacific states (where county land-use planning is limited to unincorporated areas). The results indicate that planners substantially, but not completely, agreed in their perceptions of planning tools, that planners' perceptions of planning tools are minimally related to their personal characteristics and those of their jurisdictions, and that planners' perceptions of planning tools are significantly correlated with the capacity of their planning agencies. Planners viewed effectiveness (a desirable attribute) as positively correlated with economic costs and other impediments (which are undesirable attributes) so they must make trade-offs among these attributes and choose the most appropriate tool when formulating a growth management strategy.
Keywords
Interrater Reliability; Local Commitment; Management; Agreement; Index; Planners' Perceptions; Plan-making Processes; Land-use Planning Tools; Environmental Hazard Mitigation; Us Pacific States
Abramson, Daniel B. (2020). Ancient and Current Resilience in the Chengdu Plain: Agropolitan Development Re-‘Revisited’. Urban Studies (sage Publications, Ltd.), 57(7), 1372 – 1397.
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Abstract
The Dujiangyan irrigation system, China's largest, is one of the world's most important examples of sustainable agropolitan development, maintained by a relatively decentralised system of governance that minimises bureaucratic oversight and depends on significant local autonomy at many scales down to the household. At its historic core in the Chengdu Plain, the system has supported over 2000 years of near-continuously stable urban culture, as well as some of the world's highest sustained long-term per-hectare productivity and diversity of grain and other crops, especially considering its high population density, forest cover, general biodiversity and flood management success. During the past decade, rapid urban expansion has turned the Chengdu Plain from a net grain exporter into a grain importer, and has radically transformed its productive functioning and distinctive scattered settlement pattern, reorganising much of the landscape into larger, corporately-managed farms, and more concentrated and infrastructure-intensive settlements of non-farming as well as farming households. Community-scale case studies of spatial-morphological and household socio-economic variants on the regional trend help to articulate what is at stake. Neither market-driven 'laissez-faire' rural development nor local state-driven spatial settlement consolidation and corporatisation of production seem to correlate well with important factors of resilience: landscape heterogeneity; crop diversity and food production; permaculture; and flexibility in household independence and choice of livelihood. Management of the irrigation system should be linked to community-based agricultural landscape preservation and productive dwelling, as sources of adaptive capacity crucial to the social-ecological resilience of the city-region, the nation and perhaps all humanity.
Keywords
Urbanization; Economies Of Agglomeration; Agricultural Ecology; Sustainability; Urban Planning; Land Use; China; Agglomeration/urbanisation; Agroecosystems; Environment/sustainability; History/heritage/memory; Redevelopment/regeneration; Cultivated Land; Countryside; Expansion; State; Rise; Modernization; Conservation; Integration; Earthquake; Agglomeration; Urbanisation; Environment; History; Heritage; Memory; Redevelopment; Regeneration; Population Density; Production; Farming; Agriculture; Decentralization; Autonomy; Food Production; Households; Landscape; Resilience; Rural Development; Food; Farms; Regional Development; Productivity; Economic Development; Case Studies; Agricultural Production; Biodiversity; Sustainable Development; Governance; Preservation; Crops; Flood Management; Irrigation; Permaculture; Radicalism; Socioeconomic Factors; Grain; Flexibility; Heterogeneity; Variants; Urban Areas; Irrigation Systems; Rural Communities; Bureaucracy; Landscape Preservation; Agricultural Land; Flood Control; Density; Infrastructure; Urban Sprawl; Livelihood; Farm Management; Rural Areas; Urban Farming; Settlement Patterns; Agribusiness; Market Economies
Huang, Shih-kai; Lindell, Michael K.; Prater, Carla S. (2016). Who Leaves and Who Stays? A Review and Statistical Meta-Analysis of Hurricane Evacuation Studies. Environment And Behavior, 48(8), 991 – 1029.
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Abstract
This statistical meta-analysis (SMA) examined 38 studies involving actual responses to hurricane warnings and 11 studies involving expected responses to hypothetical hurricane scenarios conducted since 1991. The results indicate official warnings, mobile home residence, risk area residence, observations of environmental (storm conditions) and social (other people's behavior) cues, and expectations of severe personal impacts, all have consistently significant effects on household evacuation. Other variablesespecially demographic variableshave weaker effects on evacuation, perhaps via indirect effects. Finally, the SMA also indicates that the effect sizes from actual hurricane evacuation studies are similar to those from studies of hypothetical hurricane scenarios for 10 of 17 variables that were examined. These results can be used to guide the design of hurricane evacuation transportation analyses and emergency managers' warning programs. They also suggest that laboratory and Internet experiments could be used to examine people's cognitive processing of different types of hurricane warning messages.
Keywords
Decision-making; Risk; Power; Probability; Information; Perception; Responses; Warnings; Ike; Hurricane Evacuation; Statistical Meta-analysis; Actual Evacuations; Hypothetical Scenarios; Hazard Warnings
Adhikari, Pramodit; Mahmoud, Hussam; Xie, Aiwen; Simonen, Kathrina; Ellingwood, Bruce. (2020). Life-Cycle Cost and Carbon Footprint Analysis for Light-framed Residential Buildings Subjected to Tornado Hazard. Journal Of Building Engineering, 32.
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Abstract
Light-frame wood building construction dominates the single-family residential home market in the United States. Such buildings are susceptible to damage from extreme winds due to hurricanes in coastal areas and tornados in the Midwest. The consequences of extreme winds on the built environment and on social and economic institutions within the community can be severe and are likely to increase in the coming decades as a result of increases in urbanization and economic development and the potential impacts of changing climate in hazard prone areas. Current building practices provide minimum standards for occupant safety and health, including structural integrity, water and sanitation, lighting, ventilation, means of egress and fire protection. However, they generally do not consider building resilience, which includes robustness and an ability to recover following extreme natural hazard events. Nor do they address sustainability, the notion that building design, construction and rehabilitation should not adversely impact the environment. In this paper, we establish a generalized cost and carbon footprint life-cycle analysis methodology for examining the benefits of different building practices for residential light-frame wood construction subjected to tornado hazards. A multiobjective approach is used to reveal tradeoffs between resilient and sustainable practices for typical residential construction. We show that when the life cycle of a typical residence is considered, a balance between resilience, sustainability and cost might be achieved in design and rehabilitation of residential building construction for tornado hazards.
Keywords
Performance; Risk; Fragility; Residential Buildings; Life-cycle Analysis; Resilience; Optimal Decisions; Sustainable Construction; Tornadoes
Jon, Ihnji; Lindell, Michael K.; Prater, Carla S.; Huang, Shih-kai; Wu, Hao-che; Johnston, David M.; Becker, Julia S.; Shiroshita, Hideyuki; Doyle, Emma E. H.; Potter, Sally H.; Mcclure, John; Lambie, Emily. (2016). Behavioral Response in the Immediate Aftermath of Shaking: Earthquakes in Christchurch and Wellington, New Zealand, and Hitachi, Japan. International Journal Of Environmental Research And Public Health, 13(11).
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Abstract
This study examines people's response actions in the first 30 min after shaking stopped following earthquakes in Christchurch and Wellington, New Zealand, and Hitachi, Japan. Data collected from 257 respondents in Christchurch, 332 respondents in Hitachi, and 204 respondents in Wellington revealed notable similarities in some response actions immediately after the shaking stopped. In all four events, people were most likely to contact family members and seek additional information about the situation. However, there were notable differences among events in the frequency of resuming previous activities. Actions taken in the first 30 mins were weakly related to: demographic variables, earthquake experience, contextual variables, and actions taken during the shaking, but were significantly related to perceived shaking intensity, risk perception and affective responses to the shaking, and damage/infrastructure disruption. These results have important implications for future research and practice because they identify promising avenues for emergency managers to communicate seismic risks and appropriate responses to risk area populations.
Keywords
Adjustment; Hazard; Model; Earthquakes; Post-impact Response Actions; Risk Perception
Doyle, Emma E. H.; McClure, John; Potter, Sally H.; Lindell, Michael K.; Becker, Julia S.; Fraser, Stuart A.; Johnston, David M. (2020). Interpretations of Aftershock Advice and Probabilities After the 2013 Cook Strait Earthquakes, Aotearoa New Zealand. International Journal Of Disaster Risk Reduction, 49.
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Abstract
Probabilistic statements can be a valuable tool for natural hazard risk communication, including forecasts. However, individuals often have a poor understanding of such probabilistic forecasts caused by them distorting their interpretations of event likelihoods towards the end of the time window and discounting the risk today. We investigated the use of an 'anchoring' time statement to mitigate this bias via an opportunistic survey run after the 2013 Cook Strait earthquakes, near Wellington, New Zealand. Participants rated their interpretations of likelihoods for an immediate aftershock forecast, and for an earthquake in the future. We explored the influence of aftershock and information concern, emotions and felt shaking, gender and education, as well as preparedness actions. The anchoring time window statement mitigated the skew in interpretations for the short (24 h to within 1 week) aftershock forecast statement. However, the skew still existed for the longer future earthquake forecast (7 days to within 1 year). We also found that heightened sensory experience (felt shaking) or emotional reactions (nervousness, fear, alertness) during the earthquakes was associated with an increase in the perceived likelihoods of future events. Gender was found to significantly influence results, with females rating higher levels of information concern and anxiety, and recording higher perceived likelihoods for the immediate aftershock forecast. Findings, including the importance of 'anchoring' time windows within a forecast to encourage immediate preparedness actions, support recommendations for effective crafting of these forecasts and warnings.
Keywords
False Discovery Rate; Risk Perceptions; Natural Hazards; Communication; Uncertainty; Model; Preparedness; Information; Experiences; Intentions; Likelihood; Probabilities; Forecasts; Earthquakes; Emotions; Concern; Gender; Actions