Dunn, Peter T.; Ahn, Alicia Y. E.; Bostrom, Ann; Vidale, John E. (2016). Perceptions of Earthquake Early Warnings on the US West Coast. International Journal Of Disaster Risk Reduction, 20, 112 – 122.
View Publication
Abstract
Earthquake early warning systems can provide seconds to minutes of lead time by alerting people that an earthquake has started and shaking is coming, enabling them to take protective action. To examine how earthquake early warnings might be received on the U.S. West coast, we conducted surveys of residents in the west coast states of Washington, Oregon and California (N=2595) through Google paywall intercept surveys administered in three rounds between September 2014 and September 2015. A majority of residents in all states (61% WA, 54% OR, 70% CA) have personally experienced an earthquake. Those who have experienced an earthquake perceive higher risk and greater potential for effectively reducing that risk with earthquake early warning. Although respondents feel that federal and local government should pay for earthquake early warning, almost two-thirds report being willing to pay something for an Earthquake Early Alert app on [their] smartphone or personal computer. Median willingness to pay per month is $1. Perceived risk, perceived effectiveness of earthquake early warning, and anticipated or experienced emotional responses to earthquakes influence judgments of and preferences for earthquake early warning, although personal experience of earthquakes conditions these influences. Further, highly visible mass media communications such as the New Yorker article The Really Big One and the movie San Andreas increase earthquake risk perceptions. Overall, interest in and support for earthquake early warning on the U.S. West Coast appears strong.
Keywords
Fear Appeals; Hazard; Model; Risk; Preparedness; Information; Adjustment; Context; Earthquake Early Warning; Risk Perception; Risk Communication; Hazard Preparation; Willingness To Pay
Jon, Ihnji; Huang, Shih-Kai; Lindell, Michael K. (2019). Perceptions and Expected Immediate Reactions to Severe Storm Displays. Risk Analysis, 39(1), 274 – 290.
View Publication
Abstract
The National Weather Service has adopted warning polygons that more specifically indicate the risk area than its previous county-wide warnings. However, these polygons are not defined in terms of numerical strike probabilities (p(s)). To better understand people's interpretations of warning polygons, 167 participants were shown 23 hypothetical scenarios in one of three information conditions-polygon-only (Condition A), polygon + tornadic storm cell (Condition B), and polygon + tornadic storm cell + flanking nontornadic storm cells (Condition C). Participants judged each polygon's p(s) and reported the likelihood of taking nine different response actions. The polygon-only condition replicated the results of previous studies; p(s) was highest at the polygon's centroid and declined in all directions from there. The two conditions displaying storm cells differed from the polygon-only condition only in having p(s) just as high at the polygon's edge nearest the storm cell as at its centroid. Overall, p(s) values were positively correlated with expectations of continuing normal activities, seeking information from social sources, seeking shelter, and evacuating by car. These results indicate that participants make more appropriate p(s) judgments when polygons are presented in their natural context of radar displays than when they are presented in isolation. However, the fact that p(s) judgments had moderately positive correlations with both sheltering (a generally appropriate response) and evacuation (a generally inappropriate response) suggests that experiment participants experience the same ambivalence about these two protective actions as people threatened by actual tornadoes.
Keywords
Decision-making; Tornado; Risk; Communication; Numeracy; Residents; Shelter; Events; Protective Actions; Risk Perceptions; Tornado Warning Polygons; Judgments; Tornadoes; Meteorological Services; Storms; Lymphocytes B; Polygons; Emergency Warning Programs; Evacuation; Displays; Inappropriateness; Weather; Warnings; Conditions; Ambivalence
Zuidema, Christopher; Austin, Elena; Cohen, Martin A.; Kasner, Edward; Liu, Lilian; Isaksen, Tania Busch; Lin, Ken-Yu; Spector, June; Seto, Edmund. (2022). Potential Impacts Of Washington State’s Wildfire Worker Protection Rule On Construction Workers. Annals Of Work Exposures & Health, 66(4), 419 – 432.
View Publication
Abstract
Driven by climate change, wildfires are increasing in frequency, duration, and intensity across the Western United States. Outdoor workers are being exposed to increasing wildfire-related particulate matter and smoke. Recognizing this emerging risk, Washington adopted an emergency rule and is presently engaged in creating a permanent rule to protect outdoor workers from wildfire smoke exposure. While there are growing bodies of literature on the exposure to and health effects of wildfire smoke in the general public and wildland firefighters, there is a gap in knowledge about wildfire smoke exposure among outdoor workers generally and construction workers specifically-a large category of outdoor workers in Washington totaling 200,000 people. Several data sources were linked in this study-including state-collected employment data and national ambient air quality data-to gain insight into the risk of PM2.5 exposure among construction workers and evaluate the impacts of different air quality thresholds that would have triggered a new Washington emergency wildfire smoke rule aimed at protecting workers from high PM2.5 exposure. Results indicate the number of poor air quality days has increased in August and September in recent years. Over the last decade, these months with the greatest potential for particulate matter exposure coincided with an annual peak in construction employment that was typically 9.4-42.7% larger across Washington counties (one county was 75.8%). Lastly, the 'encouraged' threshold of the Washington emergency rule (20.5 mu g m(-3)) would have resulted in 5.5 times more days subject to the wildfire rule on average across all Washington counties compared to its 'required' threshold (55.5 mu g m(-3)), and in 2020, the rule could have created demand for 1.35 million N-95 filtering facepiece respirators among construction workers. These results have important implications for both employers and policy makers as rules are developed. The potential policy implications of wildfire smoke exposure, exposure control strategies, and data gaps that would improve understanding of construction worker exposure to wildfire smoke are also discussed.
Keywords
Particulate Matter; Industrial Safety; Occupational Exposure; Rules; Smoke; Construction Industry; Employment; Occupational Hazards; Descriptive Statistics; Industrial Hygiene; Wildfires; N95 Respirators; Washington (state); Forest Fires; Pm 2.5; Respirator; Wildfire Smoke Protection Rule; Wildland Fire; Pm2 5; Health Impacts; Climate-change; Forest-fire; Exposure; Firefighters; Infiltration
El-Anwar, Omar; Ye, Jin; Orabi, Wallied. (2016). Efficient Optimization of Post-Disaster Reconstruction of Transportation Networks. Journal Of Computing In Civil Engineering, 30(3).
View Publication
Abstract
Catastrophes, such as hurricanes, earthquakes, and tsunamis often cause large-scale damage to transportation systems. In the aftermath of these disasters, there is a present challenge to quickly analyze various reconstruction plans and assess their impacts on restoring transportation services. This paper presents a new methodology for optimizing post-disaster reconstruction plans for transportation networks with superior computational efficiency employing mixed-integer linear programming (MILP). The model is capable of optimizing transportation recovery projects prioritization and contractors assignment in order to simultaneously: (1)accelerate networks recovery; and (2)minimize public expenditures. The full methodology is presented in two companion publications, where the focus of this paper is to propose new methods for (1)decomposing traffic analysis; (2)assessing the traffic and cost performance of reconstruction plans; (3)reducing the massive solution search space; and (4)phasing the use of mixed-integer linear programming to optimize the problem. An illustrative example is presented throughout the paper to demonstrate the implementation phases. (C) 2015 American Society of Civil Engineers.
Keywords
Cost Reduction; Disasters; Emergency Management; Integer Programming; Linear Programming; Project Management; Public Finance; Search Problems; Town And Country Planning; Transportation; Solution Search Space Reduction; Cost Performance Assessment; Traffic Performance Assessment; Traffic Analysis; Public Expenditure Minimization; Network Recovery Acceleration; Contractor Assignment; Transportation Recovery Project Prioritization; Milp; Mixed-integer Linear Programming; Post-disaster Reconstruction Plan Optimization; Transportation Service Restoration; Reconstruction Plans; Transportation System Large-scale Damage; Tsunami; Earthquake; Hurricane; Catastrophe; Transportation Network; Post-disaster Reconstruction Optimization; Optimizing Resource Utilization; Natural Disasters; Housing Projects; Construction; Performance; Robustness; Recovery; Plans; Transportation Network Reconstruction; Post-disaster Recovery; Multi-objective Optimization; Computational Cost; Contractors Assignment; Search Space
Lindell, Michael K.; Arlikatti, Sudha; Huang, Shih-kai. (2019). Immediate Behavioral Response to the June 17, 2013 Flash Floods in Uttarakhand, North India. International Journal Of Disaster Risk Reduction, 34, 129 – 146.
View Publication
Abstract
The 2013 Uttarakhand flash flood was such a surprise for those at risk that the predominant source of information for their risk was environmental cues and, secondarily, peer warnings rather than official warnings. Of those who received warnings, few received information other than the identity of the flood threat. A survey of 316 survivors found that most people's first response was to immediately evacuate but some stayed to receive additional information, confirm their warnings, or engage in evacuation preparations. Unfortunately, engaging in these milling behaviors necessarily delayed their final evacuations. Mediation analysis revealed that psychological reactions mediated the relationship between information sources and behavioral responses. Further analyses revealed that immediate evacuation and evacuation delay were both predicted best by information search and positive affect, but correlation analyses indicated that a number of other models were also plausible. Final evacuation was best predicted by immediate evacuation and, to a significantly lesser extent, household together. Overall, results suggest that the Protective Action Decision Model (PADM) should be considered a useful framework for examining household responses to flash floods in developing countries like India. It supports the conclusion that a household's first warning source is a function of two distinct detection and dissemination systems within a community-an official system and an informal system. However, it fails to capture what pre-impact emergency preparedness entails for rapid onset events in a developing country context. Further research is needed to determine the relative importance of situational and cultural characteristics in producing these observed differences.
Keywords
Risk Perception; Mental Models; Warnings; Evacuation; Disaster; Tsunami; Communication; Earthquake; Beliefs; Hazard; Flash Flood; Warning; Psychological Reactions; India
Chen, Chen; Wang, Haizhong; Lindell, Michael K.; Jung, Meen Chel; Siam, M. R. K. (2022). Tsunami Preparedness And Resilience: Evacuation Logistics And Time Estimations. Transportation Research Part D-transport And Environment, 109.
View Publication
Abstract
Extensive research has studied the near-field tsunami threat in the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ), but little research has examined the ability to evacuate the inundation zone before the first tsunami wave arrives. To address this gap, this study provides empirical evidence about people's expectations about hazard onset and evacuation logistics when a tsunami threatens. We surveyed households in five CSZ communities to assess residents' expected first wave arrival time, as well as their expectations about evacuation destinations, route choices, preparation times, travel times, and clearance times. Heatmaps are used to summarize residents' evacuation destinations and route choices, and probabilistic functions are used to model evacuation distances and time estimates. The results suggest that respondents have similar patterns of time estimates, but a few plan to evacuate within the inundation zone, and some plan to evacuate on routes that were congested in a previous event and end their evacuations at destinations within the inundation zone.
Keywords
Disaster; Tsunami Evacuation; Time Estimate; Cascadia Subduction Zone; Behavior; Decision-making; American-samoa; Earthquake; Oregon; Washington; Wellington; Responses; Hazard; Model
El-Anwar, Omar; Ye, Jin; Orabi, Wallied. (2016). Innovative Linear Formulation for Transportation Reconstruction Planning. Journal Of Computing In Civil Engineering, 30(3).
View Publication
Abstract
Following disasters, the pace of restoring transportation networks can have a significant impact on economic and societal recovery. However, reconstruction and repair efforts are typically faced by budget constraints that require careful selection among competing contractors. This paper presents an innovative formulation to optimize this complex planning problem in order to maximize the rate of transportation network recovery while minimizing the associated reconstruction costs. This study first contributes to the body of knowledge by offering an effective and efficient means of identifying the optimal schedules for reconstruction projects and the optimal contractor assignments. This is achieved by solving the problem using a new mixed-integer linear programming model. However, there are four main formulation challenges to represent this problem using linear equations because of the need to use logical operators. As such, the second contribution of this study is in offering innovative solutions to overcome these formulation challenges, which are generalizable to other construction scheduling and planning problems. This paper is companion to another paper that describes a holistic optimization and traffic assessment methodology for post-disaster reconstruction planning for damaged transportation networks. (C) 2015 American Society of Civil Engineers.
Keywords
Integer Programming; Linear Programming; Transportation; Innovative Linear Formulation; Transportation Reconstruction Planning; Economic Recovery; Societal Recovery; Complex Planning Problem; Transportation Network Recovery; Mixed-integer Linear Programming Model; Traffic Assessment Methodology; Postdisaster Reconstruction Planning; Natural Disasters; Housing Projects; Construction; Optimization; Performance; Robustness; Earthquake; Efficiency; Recovery; Plans; Transportation Network Reconstruction; Post-disaster Recovery; Multi-objective Optimization; Mixed-integer Linear Programming; Contractors Assignment; Linear Formulation; Reconstruction Costs
Lindell, Michael K.; House, Donald H.; Gestring, Jordan; Wu, Hao-Che. (2019). A Tutorial on Dynasearch: A Web-Based System for Collecting Process-Tracing Data in Dynamic Decision Tasks. Behavior Research Methods, 51(6), 2646 – 2660.
View Publication
Abstract
This tutorial describes DynaSearch, a Web-based system that supports process-tracing experiments on coupled-system dynamic decision-making tasks. A major need in these tasks is to examine the process by which decision makers search over a succession of situation reports for the information they need in order to make response decisions. DynaSearch provides researchers with the ability to construct and administer Web-based experiments containing both between- and within-subjects factors. Information search pages record participants' acquisition of verbal, numeric, and graphic information. Questionnaire pages query participants' recall of information, inferences from that information, and decisions about appropriate response actions. Experimenters can access this information in an online viewer to verify satisfactory task completion and can download the data in comma-separated text files that can be imported into statistical analysis packages.
Keywords
Downloading; Text Files; Tasks; Access To Information; Statistics; Dynamic Decision Making; Process Tracing; Web-based Experiments; Information Search; Human-behavior; Eye-tracking; Choice; Expectations; Strategies; Mousetrap; Software; Time
Ge, Yue ‘gurt’; Lindell, Michael K. (2016). County Planners’ Perceptions of Land-Use Planning Tools for Environmental Hazard Mitigation: A Survey in the US Pacific States. Environment And Planning B-planning & Design, 43(4), 716 – 736.
View Publication
Abstract
Land-use planning tools have been extensively applied in the U.S. to achieve environmental sustainability and disaster resiliency for local communities. An important issue related to land-use planning tools is planners' beliefs about the ways in which these tools differ from each other and, thus, how planners choose among these tools for environmental hazard mitigation. A web-based survey collected data from planners in counties (or boroughs) in the five U.S. Pacific states (where county land-use planning is limited to unincorporated areas). The results indicate that planners substantially, but not completely, agreed in their perceptions of planning tools, that planners' perceptions of planning tools are minimally related to their personal characteristics and those of their jurisdictions, and that planners' perceptions of planning tools are significantly correlated with the capacity of their planning agencies. Planners viewed effectiveness (a desirable attribute) as positively correlated with economic costs and other impediments (which are undesirable attributes) so they must make trade-offs among these attributes and choose the most appropriate tool when formulating a growth management strategy.
Keywords
Interrater Reliability; Local Commitment; Management; Agreement; Index; Planners' Perceptions; Plan-making Processes; Land-use Planning Tools; Environmental Hazard Mitigation; Us Pacific States
Abramson, Daniel B. (2020). Ancient and Current Resilience in the Chengdu Plain: Agropolitan Development Re-‘Revisited’. Urban Studies (sage Publications, Ltd.), 57(7), 1372 – 1397.
View Publication
Abstract
The Dujiangyan irrigation system, China's largest, is one of the world's most important examples of sustainable agropolitan development, maintained by a relatively decentralised system of governance that minimises bureaucratic oversight and depends on significant local autonomy at many scales down to the household. At its historic core in the Chengdu Plain, the system has supported over 2000 years of near-continuously stable urban culture, as well as some of the world's highest sustained long-term per-hectare productivity and diversity of grain and other crops, especially considering its high population density, forest cover, general biodiversity and flood management success. During the past decade, rapid urban expansion has turned the Chengdu Plain from a net grain exporter into a grain importer, and has radically transformed its productive functioning and distinctive scattered settlement pattern, reorganising much of the landscape into larger, corporately-managed farms, and more concentrated and infrastructure-intensive settlements of non-farming as well as farming households. Community-scale case studies of spatial-morphological and household socio-economic variants on the regional trend help to articulate what is at stake. Neither market-driven 'laissez-faire' rural development nor local state-driven spatial settlement consolidation and corporatisation of production seem to correlate well with important factors of resilience: landscape heterogeneity; crop diversity and food production; permaculture; and flexibility in household independence and choice of livelihood. Management of the irrigation system should be linked to community-based agricultural landscape preservation and productive dwelling, as sources of adaptive capacity crucial to the social-ecological resilience of the city-region, the nation and perhaps all humanity.
Keywords
Urbanization; Economies Of Agglomeration; Agricultural Ecology; Sustainability; Urban Planning; Land Use; China; Agglomeration/urbanisation; Agroecosystems; Environment/sustainability; History/heritage/memory; Redevelopment/regeneration; Cultivated Land; Countryside; Expansion; State; Rise; Modernization; Conservation; Integration; Earthquake; Agglomeration; Urbanisation; Environment; History; Heritage; Memory; Redevelopment; Regeneration; Population Density; Production; Farming; Agriculture; Decentralization; Autonomy; Food Production; Households; Landscape; Resilience; Rural Development; Food; Farms; Regional Development; Productivity; Economic Development; Case Studies; Agricultural Production; Biodiversity; Sustainable Development; Governance; Preservation; Crops; Flood Management; Irrigation; Permaculture; Radicalism; Socioeconomic Factors; Grain; Flexibility; Heterogeneity; Variants; Urban Areas; Irrigation Systems; Rural Communities; Bureaucracy; Landscape Preservation; Agricultural Land; Flood Control; Density; Infrastructure; Urban Sprawl; Livelihood; Farm Management; Rural Areas; Urban Farming; Settlement Patterns; Agribusiness; Market Economies