El-Anwar, Omar; Chen, Lei. (2014). Maximizing the Computational Efficiency of Temporary Housing Decision Support Following Disasters. Journal Of Computing In Civil Engineering, 28(1), 113 – 123.
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Abstract
Postdisaster temporary housing has long been a challenging problem because of its interlinked socioeconomic, political, and financial dimensions. A significant need for automated decision support was obvious to address this problem. Previous research achieved considerable advancements in developing optimization models that can quantify and optimize the impacts of temporary housing decisions on the socioeconomic welfare of displaced families and total public expenditures on temporary housing as well as other objectives. However, the computational complexity of these models hindered its practical use and adoption by emergency planners. This article analyzes the computational efficiency of the current implementation of the most advanced socioeconomic formulation of the temporary housing problem, which uses integer programming. Moreover, it presents the development of a customized variant of the Hungarian algorithm that has a superior computational performance while maintaining the highest quality of solutions. An application example is presented to demonstrate the unique capabilities of the new algorithm in solving large-scale problems.
Keywords
Decision Support Systems; Emergency Management; Integer Programming; Computational Efficiency; Temporary Housing Decision Support Following Disasters; Financial Dimensions; Political Dimensions; Socioeconomic Dimensions; Socioeconomic Welfare; Emergency Planners; Socioeconomic Formulation; Hungarian Algorithm; Multiobjective Optimization; Maeviz-hazturk; Housing; Computation; Disasters; Temporary Structures; Temporary Housing; Optimization; Disaster Management
Jon, Ihnji; Huang, Shih-kai; Lindell, Michael K. (2018). Perceptions and Reactions to Tornado Warning Polygons: Would a Gradient Polygon Be Useful? International Journal Of Disaster Risk Reduction, 30, 132 – 144.
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Abstract
To better understand people's interpretations of National Weather Service's tornado warning polygons, 145 participants were shown 22 hypothetical scenarios in one of four displays-deterministic polygon, deterministic polygon + radar image, gradient polygon, and gradient polygon + radar image. Participants judged each polygon's numerical strike probability (p(s)) and reported the likelihood of taking seven different response actions. The deterministic polygon display produced p(s) that were highest at the polygon's centroid and declined in all directions from there. The deterministic polygon + radar display, the gradient polygon display, and the gradient polygon + radar display produced p(s) that were high at the polygon's centroid and also at its edge nearest the tornadic storm cell. Overall, p(s) values were negatively related to resuming normal activities, but positively correlated with expectations of resuming normal activities, seeking information from social sources, seeking shelter, and evacuating by car. These results replicate the finding that participants make more appropriate p(s) judgments when polygons are presented in their natural context of radar images than when the polygons are presented in isolation and that gradient displays appear to provide no appreciable benefit. The fact that p(s) judgments had moderately positive correlations with both sheltering (a generally appropriate response) and evacuation (a generally inappropriate response) provides experimental confirmation that people threatened by actual tornadoes are conflicted about which protective action to take.
Keywords
Protective Action; Uncertainty; Risk; Psychology; Casualties; Tornado Warning Polygons; Risk Perceptions; Protective Actions
Peers, Justin B.; Gregg, Christopher E.; Lindell, Michael K.; Pelletier, Denis; Romerio, Franco; Joyner, Andrew T. (2021). The Economic Effects of Volcanic Alerts-A Case Study of High-Threat US Volcanoes. Risk Analysis, 41(10).
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Abstract
A common concern about volcanic unrest is that the communication of information about increasing volcanic alert levels (VALs) to the public could cause serious social and economic impacts even if an eruption does not occur. To test this statement, this study examined housing prices and business patterns from 1974-2016 in volcanic regions with very-high threat designations from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)-Long Valley Caldera (LVC), CA (caldera); Mount St. Helens (MSH), Washington (stratovolcano); and Kilauea, HawaiModified Letter Turned Commai (shield volcano). To compare economic trends in nonvolcanic regions that are economically dependent on tourism, Steamboat Springs, CO, served as a control as it is a ski-tourism community much like Mammoth Lakes in LVC. Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models predicted that housing prices were negatively affected by VALs at LVC from 1982-1983 and 1991-1997. While VALs associated with unrest and eruptions included in this study both had short-term indirect effects on housing prices and business indicators (e.g., number of establishments, employment, and salary), these notifications were not strong predictors of long-term economic trends. Our findings suggest that these indirect effects result from both eruptions with higher level VALs and from unrest involving lower-level VAL notifications that communicate a change in volcanic activity but do not indicate that an eruption is imminent or underway. This provides evidence concerning a systemic issue in disaster resilience. While disaster relief is provided by the U.S. federal government for direct impacts associated with disaster events that result in presidential major disaster declarations, there is limited or no assistance for indirect effects to businesses and homeowners that may follow volcanic unrest with no resulting direct physical losses. The fact that periods of volcanic unrest preceding eruption are often protracted in comparison to precursory periods for other hazardous events (e.g., earthquakes, hurricanes, flooding) makes the issue of indirect effects particularly important in regions susceptible to volcanic activity.
Keywords
Direct Impacts; Econometric Analysis; Indirect Impacts; Risk Assessment; Volcano Alert Levels; Earthquakes; Hurricanes; Threats; Housing Costs; Business Indicators; Disasters; Disaster Relief; Declarations; Volcanoes; Resilience; Tourism; Economics; Flooding; Trends; Calderas; Geological Surveys; Housing Prices; Eruptions; Precursors; Indirect Effects; Business; Disaster Management; Economic Trends; Autoregressive Models; Floods; Employment Status; Prices; Federal Government; Housing; Eruption; Economic Impact; Seismic Activity; Volcanic Activity; Earthquake Prediction; Lakes; Communication; United States--us
Lindell, Michael K.; Mumpower, Jeryl L.; Huang, Shih-kai; Wu, Hao-che; Samuelson, Charles D. (2015). Exposure Path Perceptions and Protective Actions in Biological Water Contamination Emergencies. Environmental Health Insights, 9, 13 – 21.
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Abstract
This study extends the Protective Action Decision Model, developed to address disaster warning responses in the context of natural hazards, to boil water advisories. The study examined 110 Boston residents' and 203 Texas students' expectations of getting sick through different exposure paths for contact with contaminated water. In addition, the study assessed respondents' actual implementation (for residents) or behavioral expectations (for students) of three different protective actions - bottled water, boiled water, and personally chlorinated water - as well as their demographic characteristics and previous experience with water contamination. The results indicate that people distinguish among the exposure paths, but the differences are small (one-third to one-half of the response scale). Nonetheless, the perceived risk from the exposure paths helps to explain why people are expected to consume (or actually consumed) bottled water rather than boiled or personally chlorinated water. Overall, these results indicate that local authorities should take care to communicate the relative risks of different exposure paths and should expect that people will respond to a boil water order primarily by consuming bottled water. Thus, they should make special efforts to increase supplies of bottled water in their communities during water contamination emergencies.
Keywords
Water Contamination; Exposure Paths; Risk Perception; Protective Action
Simonen, K.; Huang, M.; Aicher, C.; Morris, P. (2018). Embodied Carbon as a Proxy for the Environmental Impact of Earthquake Damage Repair. Energy And Buildings, 164, 131 – 139.
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Abstract
In evaluating the life cycle environmental impacts of buildings, the contributions of seismic damage are rarely considered. In order to enable a more comprehensive assessment of a building's environmental impact by accounting for seismic events, this project developed an environmental impact database of building component seismic damage - the largest of its kind known to date - by combining data from Carnegie Mellon University's Economic Input-Output Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) database with cost estimates of repair previously developed for FEMA's Performance Assessment Calculation Tool (PACT), a software that models probabilistic seismic damage in buildings. Fifteen indicators of environmental impacts were calculated for the repair of approximately 800 building components for up to five levels of seismic damage, capturing 'embodied' impacts related to cradle-to-gate manufacturing of building materials, products, and equipment. Analysis of the data revealed that non-structural and architectural finishes often dominated the environmental impacts of seismic damage per dollar spent in repair. A statistical analysis was performed on the data using Principal Component Analysis, confirming that embodied carbon, a popular metric for evaluating environmental impacts in building LCAs, is a suitable proxy for other relevant environmental impact metrics when assessing the impact of repairing earthquake damage of buildings. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Keywords
Life-cycle Assessment; Input-output; Buildings; Life Cycle Assessment; Seismic Analysis; Performance-based Design; Economic Input-output; Principal Component Analysis; Energy And Climate Change; Architectural Engineering; Carbon; Carbon Cycle; Earthquake Damage; Earthquakes; Environmental Impact; Environmental Management; Databases; Finishes; Environmental Assessment; Building Components; Construction Materials; Life Cycle Engineering; Life Cycle Analysis; Data Bases; Damage Assessment; Aseismic Buildings; Statistical Analysis; Equipment Costs; Cost Estimates; Data Processing; Data Analysis; Seismic Activity; Cost Analysis; Principal Components Analysis; Performance Assessment; Life Cycles; Repair; Impact Damage; Building Materials; Economic Analysis; Software
Peers, Justin B.; Lindell, Michael K.; Gregg, Christopher E.; Reeves, Ashleigh K.; Joyner, Andrew T.; Johnston, David M. (2021). Multi-Hazard Perceptions at Long Valley Caldera, California, USA. International Journal Of Disaster Risk Reduction, 52.
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Abstract
Caldera systems such as Long Valley Caldera, California; Taupo, New Zealand; and Campi Flegrei, Italy, experience centuries to millennia without eruption, but have the potential for large eruptions. This raises questions about how local residents' behavioral responses to these low-probability high-consequence events differ from their responses to events, such as wildfires and earthquakes, that have higher probabilities. To examine this issue, a multi-hazard mail survey of 229 households explored perceptions of-and responses to-volcano, earthquake and wildfire hazards in the Long Valley Volcanic Region. Response efficacy was the only significant predictor of emergency preparedness, which suggests that hazard managers can increase household emergency preparedness by emphasizing this attribute of protective actions. In addition to response efficacy, expected personal consequences, hazard intrusiveness, and affective responses were all significantly related to information seeking. This indicates that hazard managers can also increase households' information seeking about local hazards and appropriate protective actions by communicating the certainty and severity of hazard impacts (thus increasing expected personal consequences) and that they communicate this information repeatedly (thus increasing hazard intrusiveness) to produce significant emotional involvement (thus increasing affective response).
Keywords
Households Expected Responses; Risk Information-seeking; Volcanic Risk; Earthquake; Model; Adjustment; Mitigation; Communication; Preparedness; Predictors; Volcano Hazard Perception; Earthquake Hazard Perception; Wildfire Hazard Perception; Emergency Preparedness; Information Seeking
Shang-hsien Hsieh; Ken-yu Lin; Nai-wen Chi; Hsien-tang Lin. (2015). Domain Knowledge-Based Information Retrieval for Engineering Technical Documents. Ontology In The AEC Industry. A Decade Of Research And Development In Architecture, Engineering And Construction, chapter 1.
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Abstract
Technical documents with complicated structures are often produced in architecture/engineering/construction (AEC) projects and research. Information retrieval (IR) techniques provide a possible solution for managing the ever-growing volume and contexts of the knowledge embedded in these technical documents. However, applying a general-purpose search engine to a domain-specific technical document collection often produces unsatisfactory results. To address this problem, we research the development of a novel IR system based on passage retrieval techniques. The system employs domain knowledge to assist passage partitioning and supports an interactive concept-based expanded IR for technical documents in an engineering field. The engineering domain selected in this case is earthquake engineering, although the technologies developed and employed by the system should be generally applicable to many other engineering domains that use technical documents with similar characteristics. We carry out the research in a three-step process. In the first step, since the final output of this research is an IR system, as a prerequisite, we created a reference collection which includes 111 earthquake engineering technical documents from Taiwan's National Center for Research on Earthquake Engineering. With this collection, the effectiveness of the IR system can be further evaluated onceit is developed. In the second step, the research focuses on creating a base domain ontology using an earthquake-engineering handbook to represent the domain knowledge and to support the target IR system with the knowledge. In step three, the research focuses on the semantic querying and retrieval mechanisms and develops the OntoPassage approach to help with the mechanisms. The OntoPassage approach partitions a document into smaller passages, each with around 300 terms, according to the main concepts in the document. This approach is then used to implement the target domain knowledge-based IR system that allows users to interact with the system and perform concept-based query expansions. The results show that the proposed domain knowledge-based IR system can achieve not only an effective IR but also inform search engine users with a clear knowledge representation.
Keywords
Architecture; Construction; Engineering; Knowledge Based Systems; Ontologies (artificial Intelligence); Query Processing; Search Engines; Knowledge Representation; Concept-based Query Expansions; Base Domain Ontology; Earthquake Engineering; General-purpose Search Engine; Aec Projects; Architecture/engineering/construction Projects; Complicated Structures; Technical Documents; Domain Knowledge-based Information Retrieval
Jon, Ihnji. (2019). Resilience and ‘Technicity’: Challenges and Opportunities for New Knowledge Practices in Disaster Planning. Resilience-International Policies Practices and Discourses, 7(2), 107 – 125.
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Abstract
With increasing exposure to environmental catastrophes and natural hazards, the terminology of 'resilience' is becoming ubiquitous in the planning field. As a part of this continuing discussion, this paper examines how the concept of resilience has been used in disaster planning, especially with a focus on the creation and use of knowledge to 'build resilience' in response to potential future natural hazard events. In discussing the practice of creating and using knowledge in disaster planning, I draw insights from the interdisciplinary critical studies of science and technology literature, which has been developing rich discussions on the challenges we face in producing geographical knowledge. I demonstrate in this paper how resilience theory can be linked with the concept of 'technicity' used in the virtual geography literature, and how that association can have meaningful implications for the production and application of knowledge in disaster planning.
Keywords
Community Resilience; Adaptive Capacity; Vulnerability; Hazard; Risk; Sustainability; Participation; Geographies; Uncertainty; Complexity; Resilience; Technicity; Disaster Planning; Virtual Geography; Knowledge Practice
Lindell, Michael K.; Prater, Carla S.; House, Donald H. (2022). Cascadia Subduction Zone Residents’ Tsunami Evacuation Expectations. Geosciences (2076-3263), 12(5).
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Abstract
The U.S. Pacific Northwest coast must be prepared to evacuate immediately after a Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake. This requires coastal residents to understand the tsunami threat, have accurate expectations about warning sources, engage in preimpact evacuation preparedness actions, and plan (and practice) their evacuation logistics, including an appropriate transportation mode, evacuation route, and destination. A survey of 221 residents in three communities identified areas in which many coastal residents have reached adequate levels of preparedness. Moreover, residents who are not adequately prepared are willing to improve their performance in most of the areas in which they fall short. However, many respondents expect to engage in time-consuming evacuation preparations before evacuating. Additionally, their estimates of evacuation travel time might be inaccurate because only 28-52% had practiced their evacuation routes. These results indicate that more coastal residents should prepare grab-and-go kits to speed their departure, as well as practice evacuation preparation and evacuation travel to test the accuracy of these evacuation time estimates. Overall, these results, together with recommendations for overcoming them, can guide CSZ emergency managers in methods of improving hazard awareness and education programs. In addition, these data can guide transportation engineers' evacuation analyses and evacuation plans.
Keywords
Subduction Zones; Tsunamis; Tsunami Warning Systems; Civilian Evacuation; Earthquake Zones; Transportation Engineering; Expectation (psychology); Residents; Cascadia Subduction Zone; Evacuation Preparedness; Evacuation Time Estimates; Tsunami; Natural Warning Signs; Coastal Communities; American-samoa; New-zealand; Earthquake; Behavior; Preparedness; Awareness; Japan; Washington; Earthquakes; Transportation; Evacuations & Rescues; Travel Time; Subduction; Surveying; Evacuation; Travel; Coasts; Emergency Warning Programs; Seismic Activity; Emergency Preparedness; Perceptions; Traveltime; Coastal Zone; Peers; Estimates; Logistics; Evacuation Routing; Subduction (geology); Households; United States--us; Pacific Northwest; Cascadia
Dunn, Peter T.; Ahn, Alicia Y. E.; Bostrom, Ann; Vidale, John E. (2016). Perceptions of Earthquake Early Warnings on the US West Coast. International Journal Of Disaster Risk Reduction, 20, 112 – 122.
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Abstract
Earthquake early warning systems can provide seconds to minutes of lead time by alerting people that an earthquake has started and shaking is coming, enabling them to take protective action. To examine how earthquake early warnings might be received on the U.S. West coast, we conducted surveys of residents in the west coast states of Washington, Oregon and California (N=2595) through Google paywall intercept surveys administered in three rounds between September 2014 and September 2015. A majority of residents in all states (61% WA, 54% OR, 70% CA) have personally experienced an earthquake. Those who have experienced an earthquake perceive higher risk and greater potential for effectively reducing that risk with earthquake early warning. Although respondents feel that federal and local government should pay for earthquake early warning, almost two-thirds report being willing to pay something for an Earthquake Early Alert app on [their] smartphone or personal computer. Median willingness to pay per month is $1. Perceived risk, perceived effectiveness of earthquake early warning, and anticipated or experienced emotional responses to earthquakes influence judgments of and preferences for earthquake early warning, although personal experience of earthquakes conditions these influences. Further, highly visible mass media communications such as the New Yorker article The Really Big One and the movie San Andreas increase earthquake risk perceptions. Overall, interest in and support for earthquake early warning on the U.S. West Coast appears strong.
Keywords
Fear Appeals; Hazard; Model; Risk; Preparedness; Information; Adjustment; Context; Earthquake Early Warning; Risk Perception; Risk Communication; Hazard Preparation; Willingness To Pay