El-Anwar, Omar; El-Rayes, Khaled; Elnashai, Amr S. (2010). Maximizing the Sustainability of Integrated Housing Recovery Efforts. Journal Of Construction Engineering And Management, 136(7), 794 – 802.
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Abstract
The large-scale and catastrophic impacts of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005 challenged the efficacy of traditional postdisaster temporary housing methods. To address these challenges, the U.S. Congress appropriated $400 million to the Department of Homeland Security to support alternative housing pilot programs, which encourage innovative housing solutions that will facilitate sustainable and permanent affordable housing in addition to serving as temporary housing. Facilitating and maximizing the sustainability of postdisaster alternative housing is an important objective that has significant social, economic, and environmental impacts. This paper presents the development of a novel optimization model that is capable of (1) evaluating the sustainability of integrated housing recovery efforts under the alternative housing pilot program and (2) identifying the housing projects that maximize sustainability. An application example is analyzed to demonstrate the use of the developed model and its unique capabilities in maximizing the sustainability of integrated housing recovery efforts after natural disasters.
Keywords
Northridge Earthquake; United-states; Disasters; Optimization; Postdisaster Alternative Housing; Sustainability; Housing Recovery
Brody, Samuel D.; Highfield, Wesley E.; Wilson, Morgan; Lindell, Michael K.; Blessing, Russell. (2017). Understanding the Motivations of Coastal Residents to Voluntarily Purchase Federal Flood Insurance. Journal Of Risk Research, 20(6), 760 – 775.
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Abstract
Federally-backed flood insurance is the primary mechanism by which residents in the United States (US) prepare for and recover from floods. While there is a growing literature on the general uptake of flood insurance, little work has been done to address the factors motivating residents to voluntarily buy and maintain federally-based insurance policies. We address this issue by conducting a survey of coastal residents in four localities in Texas and Florida. Based on survey responses, we quantitatively examine the factors influencing whether residents located outside of the 100-year floodplain obtain insurance policies when it is not required. Using two-sample t-tests and binary logistic regression analysis to control for multiple contextual and psychological variables, we statistically isolate the factors contributing most to the decision to purchase insurance. Our findings indicate that a resident located outside the 100-year floodplain who has voluntarily purchased federal flood insurance can be characterized, on average, as more highly educated, living in relatively expensive homes, and a long-time resident who thinks about flood hazard relatively infrequently but who, nonetheless, thinks flood insurance is relatively affordable. Unexpectedly, the physical proximity of a respondent to flood hazard areas makes little or no discernible difference in the decision to obtain flood insurance.
Keywords
Action Decision-model; Hazard Adjustments; Risk; Perceptions; Adoption; Florida; Losses; Determinants; Preferences; Responses; Insurance; Floodplain; Purchase Decision; Texas
Huang, M.; Simonen, K. (2020). Comparative Environmental Analysis of Seismic Damage in Buildings. Journal Of Structural Engineering, 146(2).
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Abstract
In studying the environmental impacts of buildings, earthquake hazards are rarely considered, but their environmental impacts can be significant. This case study paper demonstrates how the US Federal Emergency Management Agency's Performance Assessment Calculation Tool (PACT) can be used to analyze the environmental impacts of buildings using probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. PACT was used to evaluate 10 case study buildings that varied by five types of lateral systems and two risk categories. For each building, PACT generated 1,000 realizations at five earthquake intensities. The resulting environmental impacts were analyzed according to their distribution, median, and average values, and the differences among building component types, risk categories, and lateral force-resisting systems were explored. In this study, building components that were categorized under Exterior Enclosures, Interior Finishes, and Heating, Ventilation, and Air-Conditioning (HVAC) produced notably higher environmental impacts in response to seismic damage, and their vulnerability to displacement- or acceleration-induced damage could be attributed to the characteristics of the lateral systems. Although these observations are notable, they should not be taken as universally applicable to all buildings. Instead, these findings exemplify how the environmental impact results from PACT can be analyzed and interpreted to address both the seismic and environmental aspects of building design. (C) 2019 American Society of Civil Engineers.
Keywords
Impact
Hsieh, Shang-hsien; Lin, Hsien-tang; Chi, Nai-wen; Chou, Kuang-wu; Lin, Ken-yu. (2011). Enabling The Development Of Base Domain Ontology Through Extraction Of Knowledge From Engineering Domain Handbooks. Advanced Engineering Informatics, 25(2), 288 – 296.
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Abstract
Domain ontology, encompassing both concepts and instances, along with their relations and properties, is a new medium for the storage and propagation of domain specific knowledge. A significant problem remains the effort which must be expended during ontology construction. This involves collecting the domain-related vocabularies, developing the domain concept hierarchy, and defining the properties of each concept and the relationships between concepts. Recently several engineering handbooks have described detailed domain knowledge by organizing the knowledge into categories, sections, and chapters with indices in the appendix. This paper proposes the extraction of concepts, instances, and relationships from a handbook of a specific domain to quickly construct base domain ontology as a good starting point for expediting the development process of more comprehensive domain ontology. The extracted information can also be reorganized and converted into web ontology language format to represent the base domain ontology. The generation of a base domain ontology from an Earthquake Engineering Handbook is used to illustrate the proposed approach. In addition, quality evaluation of the extracted base ontology is performed and discussed. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords
Ontology; Earthquake Engineering; World Wide Web; Theory Of Knowledge; Vocabulary; Programming Languages; Domain Handbook; Domain Ontology; Owl; Web Ontology Language; Knowledge Representation Languages; Ontologies (artificial Intelligence); Base Domain Ontology; Knowledge Extraction; Engineering Domain Handbooks; Domain Specific Knowledge Storage; Domain Specific Knowledge Propagation; Domain-related Vocabularies; Domain Concept Hierarchy; Development Process; Web Ontology Language Format; Earthquake Engineering Handbook; Semantic Web; Management; Design
Cova, Thomas J.; Dennison, Philip E.; Li, Dapeng; Drews, Frank A.; Siebeneck, Laura K.; Lindell, Michael K. (2017). Warning Triggers in Environmental Hazards: Who Should Be Warned to Do What and When? Risk Analysis, 37(4), 601 – 611.
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Abstract
Determining the most effective public warnings to issue during a hazardous environmental event is a complex problem. Three primary questions need to be answered: Who should take protective action? What is the best action? and When should this action be initiated? Warning triggers provide a proactive means for emergency managers to simultaneously answer these questions by recommending that a target group take a specified protective action if a preset environmental trigger condition occurs (e.g., warn a community to evacuate if a wildfire crosses a proximal ridgeline). Triggers are used to warn the public across a wide variety of environmental hazards, and an improved understanding of their nature and role promises to: (1) advance protective action theory by unifying the natural, built, and social themes in hazards research into one framework, (2) reveal important information about emergency managers' risk perception, situational awareness, and threat assessment regarding threat behavior and public response, and (3) advance spatiotemporal models for representing the geography and timing of disaster warning and response (i.e., a coupled natural-built-social system). We provide an overview and research agenda designed to advance our understanding and modeling of warning triggers.
Keywords
Situation Awareness; Evacuation; Model; Management; Simulation; Decisions; Vehicles; Support; Systems; Hazards; Protective Actions; Warning Systems; Emergency Communications Systems; Disasters; Emergency Preparedness; Environmental Hazards; Environmental Conditions; Public Concern; Risk Perception; Emergency Management; Situational Awareness; Information Management; Geography; Emergency Warning Programs; Wildfires; Action; Risk Assessment; Timing; Warnings
Lindell, Michael K.; Sorensen, John H.; Baker, Earl J.; Lehman, William P. (2020). Community Response to Hurricane Threat: Estimates of Household Evacuation Preparation Time Distributions. Transportation Research Part D-transport And Environment, 85.
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Abstract
Household evacuation preparation time distributions are essential when computing evacuation time estimates (ETEs) for hurricanes with late intensification or late changing tracks. Although evacuation preparation times have been assessed by expected task completion times, actual task completion times, and departure delays, it is unknown if these methods produce similar results. Consequently, this study compares data from one survey assessing expected task completion times, three surveys assessing actual task completion times, and three surveys assessing departure delays after receiving a warning. In addition, this study seeks to identify variables that predict household evacuation preparation times. These analyses show that the three methods of assessing evacuation preparation times produce results that are somewhat different, but the differences have plausible explanations. Household evacuation preparation times are poorly predicted by demographic variables, but are better predicted by variables that predict evacuation decisions-perceived storm characteristics, expected personal impacts, and evacuation facilitators.
Keywords
Travel Demand Model; Decision-making; Communication; Prediction; Simulation; Hurricane Evacuation Models; Preparation Time Distributions; Mobilization Time Distributions; Departure Delay Time Distributions; Social Milling
El-Anwar, Omar. (2013). Advancing Optimization of Hybrid Housing Development Plans Following Disasters: Achieving Computational Robustness, Effectiveness, and Efficiency. Journal Of Computing In Civil Engineering, 27(4), 358 – 369.
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Abstract
Following disasters, displaced families often face significant challenges to move from temporary to permanent housing. The Federal Emergency Management Agency is exploring alternative housing pilot programs to evaluate the possibility of providing quickly deployable, affordable housing that can serve both as temporary and permanent housing. Because of the complexities and costs associated with these programs, it is impractical to assume that accelerated permanent housing can fully replace the need for traditional temporary housing, especially in cases of large-scale displacements. A novel methodology was developed to evaluate the socioeconomic benefits of candidate configurations of hybrid housing plans, which incorporates both temporary and accelerated permanent housing developments. This paper presents the computational implementation and performance analysis of this novel methodology to offer a practical decision-support tool to emergency planners. To this end, genetic algorithms and integer-programming optimization models are formulated, and their performances are analyzed based on their effectiveness, efficiency, and robustness. In lieu of developing the integer-programming model, the paper also presents a linear formulation that overcomes the need to use logical operations to model fixed and variable cost components for developing housing projects. Results show the superior performance of integer programming, whereas genetic algorithms offer higher modeling flexibility.
Keywords
Decision Support Systems; Emergency Management; Genetic Algorithms; Integer Programming; Advancing Optimization; Hybrid Housing Development Plans Following Disasters; Achieving Computational Robustness; Achieving Computational Effectiveness; Achieving Computational Efficiency; Federal Emergency Management Agency; Housing Pilot Programs; Temporary Housing; Permanent Housing Developments; Decision-support Tool; Emergency Planners; Integer-programming Optimization Models; Logical Operations; Optimization; Disasters; Housing; Social Factors; Economic Factors; Computation; Hybrid Methods; Disaster Recovery; Accelerated Permanent Housing; Socioeconomic Welfare; Robustness; Effectiveness; Computational Efficiency; 0
Huang, Shih-kai; Wu, Hao-che; Lindell, Michael K.; Wei, Hung-lung; Samuelson, Charles D. (2017). Perceptions, Behavioral Expectations, and Implementation Timing for Response Actions in a Hurricane Emergency. Natural Hazards, 88(1), 533 – 558.
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Abstract
This study examined the perceived attributes, behavioral expectations, and expected implementation timing of 11 organizational emergency response actions for hurricane emergencies. The perceived attributes of the hurricane response actions were characterized by two hazard-related attributes (effectiveness for person protection and property protection) and five resource-related attributes (financial costs, required knowledge/skill, required equipment, required time/effort, and required cooperation). A total of 155 introductory psychology students responded to a hypothetical scenario involving an approaching Category 4 hurricane. The data collected in this study explain previous findings of untimely protective action decision making. Specifically, these data reveal distinctly different patterns for the expected implementation of preparatory actions and evacuation recommendations. Participants used the hazard-related and resource-related attributes to differentiate among the response actions and the expected timing of implementation. Moreover, participants' behavioral expectations and expected implementation timing for the response actions were most strongly correlated with those actions' effectiveness for person protection. Finally, participants reported evacuation implementation times that were consistent with a phased evacuation strategy in which risk areas are evacuated in order of their proximity to the coast. However, the late initiation of evacuation in risk areas closest to the coast could lead to very late evacuation of risk areas farther inland.
Keywords
Action Decision-making; Interrater Agreement; Evacuation; Time; People; Preparatory Actions; Response Action Attributes; Trigger Timing; Hurricane; Psychology; Hurricanes; Costs; Emergency Response; Data; Proximity; Coastal Environments; Hazards; Decision Making; Emergencies; Emergency Preparedness; Risk; Equipment Costs; Cooperation; Protection; Equipment; Evacuations & Rescues; Behavioral Psychology; Time Measurement
Chen, Chen; Lindell, Michael K.; Wang, Haizhong. (2021). Tsunami Preparedness and Resilience in the Cascadia Subduction Zone: A Multistage Model of Expected Evacuation Decisions and Mode Choice. International Journal Of Disaster Risk Reduction, 59.
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Abstract
Physical scientists have estimated that the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) has as much as a 25% chance to produce a M9.0 earthquake and tsunami in the next 50 years, but few studies have used survey data to assess household risk perceptions, emergency preparedness, and evacuation intentions. To understand these phenomena, this study conducted a mail-based household questionnaire using the Protective Action Decision Model (PADM) as a guide to collect 483 responses from two coastal communities in the CSZ: Crescent City, CA and Coos Bay, OR. We applied multistage regression models to assess the effects of critical PADM variables. The results showed that three psychological variables (risk perception, perceived hazard knowledge, and evacuation mode efficacy) were associated with some demographic variables and experience variables. Evacuation intention and evacuation mode choice are associated with those psychological variables but not with demographic variables. Contrary to previous studies, location and experience had no direct impact on evacuation intention or mode choice. We also analyzed expected evacuation mode compliance and the potential of using micro-mobility during tsunami response. This study provides empirical evidence of tsunami preparedness and intentions to support interdisciplinary evacuation modeling, tsunami hazard education, community disaster preparedness, and resilience plans.
Keywords
False Discovery Rate; American-samoa; Earthquake; Washington; Behavior; Oregon; Wellington; Responses; Disaster; Tsunami Evacuation; Cascadia Subduction Zone; Risk Perception
El-Anwar, Omar. (2013). Maximising the Net Social Benefit of the Construction of Post-Disaster Alternative Housing Projects. Disasters, 37(3), 489 – 515.
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Abstract
The widespread destruction that follows large-scale natural disasters, such as Hurricane Katrina in August 2005, challenges the efficacy of traditional temporary housing methods in providing adequate solutions to housing needs. Recognising these housing challenges, the Congress of the United States allocated, in 2006, USD 400 million to the Department of Homeland Security to support Alternative Housing Pilot Programs, which are intended to explore the possibilities of providing permanent and affordable housing to displaced families instead of traditional temporary housing. This paper presents a new methodology and optimisation model to identify the optimal configurations of post-shelter housing arrangements to maximise the overall net socioeconomic benefit. The model is capable of quantifying and optimising the impacts of substituting temporary housing with alternative housing on the social and economic welfare of displaced families as well as the required additional costs of doing so. An application example is presented to illustrate the use of the model and its capabilities.
Keywords
Public Housing; Temporary Housing; Hurricane Katrina, 2005; Natural Disasters; Socioeconomic Factors; Mathematical Models; Mathematical Optimization; United States; Alternative Housing Pilot Programs; Optimisation; Socioeconomic Benefit; Disasters