Huang, Shih-kai; Wu, Hao-che; Lindell, Michael K.; Wei, Hung-lung; Samuelson, Charles D. (2017). Perceptions, Behavioral Expectations, and Implementation Timing for Response Actions in a Hurricane Emergency. Natural Hazards, 88(1), 533 – 558.
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Abstract
This study examined the perceived attributes, behavioral expectations, and expected implementation timing of 11 organizational emergency response actions for hurricane emergencies. The perceived attributes of the hurricane response actions were characterized by two hazard-related attributes (effectiveness for person protection and property protection) and five resource-related attributes (financial costs, required knowledge/skill, required equipment, required time/effort, and required cooperation). A total of 155 introductory psychology students responded to a hypothetical scenario involving an approaching Category 4 hurricane. The data collected in this study explain previous findings of untimely protective action decision making. Specifically, these data reveal distinctly different patterns for the expected implementation of preparatory actions and evacuation recommendations. Participants used the hazard-related and resource-related attributes to differentiate among the response actions and the expected timing of implementation. Moreover, participants' behavioral expectations and expected implementation timing for the response actions were most strongly correlated with those actions' effectiveness for person protection. Finally, participants reported evacuation implementation times that were consistent with a phased evacuation strategy in which risk areas are evacuated in order of their proximity to the coast. However, the late initiation of evacuation in risk areas closest to the coast could lead to very late evacuation of risk areas farther inland.
Keywords
Action Decision-making; Interrater Agreement; Evacuation; Time; People; Preparatory Actions; Response Action Attributes; Trigger Timing; Hurricane; Psychology; Hurricanes; Costs; Emergency Response; Data; Proximity; Coastal Environments; Hazards; Decision Making; Emergencies; Emergency Preparedness; Risk; Equipment Costs; Cooperation; Protection; Equipment; Evacuations & Rescues; Behavioral Psychology; Time Measurement
Chen, Chen; Lindell, Michael K.; Wang, Haizhong. (2021). Tsunami Preparedness and Resilience in the Cascadia Subduction Zone: A Multistage Model of Expected Evacuation Decisions and Mode Choice. International Journal Of Disaster Risk Reduction, 59.
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Abstract
Physical scientists have estimated that the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) has as much as a 25% chance to produce a M9.0 earthquake and tsunami in the next 50 years, but few studies have used survey data to assess household risk perceptions, emergency preparedness, and evacuation intentions. To understand these phenomena, this study conducted a mail-based household questionnaire using the Protective Action Decision Model (PADM) as a guide to collect 483 responses from two coastal communities in the CSZ: Crescent City, CA and Coos Bay, OR. We applied multistage regression models to assess the effects of critical PADM variables. The results showed that three psychological variables (risk perception, perceived hazard knowledge, and evacuation mode efficacy) were associated with some demographic variables and experience variables. Evacuation intention and evacuation mode choice are associated with those psychological variables but not with demographic variables. Contrary to previous studies, location and experience had no direct impact on evacuation intention or mode choice. We also analyzed expected evacuation mode compliance and the potential of using micro-mobility during tsunami response. This study provides empirical evidence of tsunami preparedness and intentions to support interdisciplinary evacuation modeling, tsunami hazard education, community disaster preparedness, and resilience plans.
Keywords
False Discovery Rate; American-samoa; Earthquake; Washington; Behavior; Oregon; Wellington; Responses; Disaster; Tsunami Evacuation; Cascadia Subduction Zone; Risk Perception
El-Anwar, Omar. (2013). Maximising the Net Social Benefit of the Construction of Post-Disaster Alternative Housing Projects. Disasters, 37(3), 489 – 515.
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Abstract
The widespread destruction that follows large-scale natural disasters, such as Hurricane Katrina in August 2005, challenges the efficacy of traditional temporary housing methods in providing adequate solutions to housing needs. Recognising these housing challenges, the Congress of the United States allocated, in 2006, USD 400 million to the Department of Homeland Security to support Alternative Housing Pilot Programs, which are intended to explore the possibilities of providing permanent and affordable housing to displaced families instead of traditional temporary housing. This paper presents a new methodology and optimisation model to identify the optimal configurations of post-shelter housing arrangements to maximise the overall net socioeconomic benefit. The model is capable of quantifying and optimising the impacts of substituting temporary housing with alternative housing on the social and economic welfare of displaced families as well as the required additional costs of doing so. An application example is presented to illustrate the use of the model and its capabilities.
Keywords
Public Housing; Temporary Housing; Hurricane Katrina, 2005; Natural Disasters; Socioeconomic Factors; Mathematical Models; Mathematical Optimization; United States; Alternative Housing Pilot Programs; Optimisation; Socioeconomic Benefit; Disasters
Lindell, Michael K.; Mumpower, Jeryl L.; Huang, Shih-kai; Wu, Hao-che; Samuelson, Charles D.; Wei, Hung-lung. (2017). Perceptions of Protective Actions for a Water Contamination Emergency. Journal Of Risk Research, 20(7), 887 – 908.
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Abstract
Local authorities who believe their water systems are contaminated need to warn those at risk to take protective actions. In the past, such efforts have often achieved only partial success in preventing people from deciding to continue consumption of contaminated drinking water. To examine the possible antecedents of decisions to comply with water consumption advisories, this study examined 110 Boston residents' actual protective actions and 203 Texas students' expected protective actions; their perceptions of three protective actions on seven attributes; and their risk perceptions, water contamination experience, facilitating conditions, and demographic characteristics. The profiles of the protective actions for the hazard-related and resource-related attributes suggest reasons why people preferred to use bottled water rather than boil or personally chlorinate water. In particular, perceived effectiveness in protecting health was the most important correlate of protective action, which means that a protective action can have a high level of implementation even though it has poor ratings on other attributes such as cost. In addition, this study indicates public health officials may also need to address people's misconceptions about the hazard-related and resource-related attributes of any relevant protective actions. Finally, consistent with an extensive body of previous research, students were similar to residents in many important respects even though were some statistically significant differences.
Keywords
Action Decision-model; Hazard Adjustments; College-students; Plant Accident; Risks; Metaanalysis; Triviality; Attitudes; Behavior; Adoption; Water Contamination; Risk Perception; Protective Action; Protective Action Attributes; Student Vs; Population Samples
Jung, Meen Chel; Dyson, Karen; Alberti, Marina. (2021). Urban Landscape Heterogeneity Influences the Relationship Between Tree Canopy and Land Surface Temperature. Urban Forestry & Urban Greening, 57.
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Abstract
Urban trees play a key role in alleviating elevated summertime land surface temperatures in cities. However, urban landscape influences the capacity of urban trees to mitigate higher temperatures. We propose that both developed land characteristics and tree cover should be considered to accurately estimate the mitigation effects of canopy cover. We subclassified original land cover based on the canopy cover ratio to capture the within-land cover heterogeneity. We selected two coastal cities with different summertime climatic conditions: Seattle, Washington, USA, and Baltimore, Maryland, USA. We used Landsat-based grid cells (30 m x 30 m) as our spatial analytical unit, with corresponding land surface temperature, canopy area, canopy compactness, population size, and National Land Cover Database (NLCD)-based land cover group. We first used grouped boxplots, Kruskal-Wallis H tests, and post-hoc multiple comparison tests to detect the distribution of land surface temperatures by the land cover group. We then introduced statistical models to test the group effects on the relationship between land surface temperatures and canopy cover variables. We found: (1) land surface temperature increases with level of development, (2) land surface temperature decreases with canopy cover level, (3) the magnitude of the mitigation effects from canopy area differs based on development level and current canopy cover, (4) the differing efficacies of canopy area in decreasing land surface temperature follows a nonlinear threshold relationship, and (5) compactness of canopy cover was not significant in reducing the land surface temperature. These findings suggest the importance of considering heterogeneous canopy cover within developed land cover classes in urban heat island research. Tree planting strategies need to consider the nonlinear relationships between tree canopy cover and land surface temperature alongside environmental equity concerns.
Keywords
Extreme Heat Events; Climate-change; Cover Data; Island; Pattern; Cities; Vegetation; Mortality; Phoenix; Impact; Canopy Cover; Environmental Equity; Land Cover; Land Surface Temperature; Mitigation Effect; Area; Canopy; Cells; Climatic Factors; Databases; Heat Island; Landscapes; Multiple Comparison Test; Planting; Population Size; Research; Statistical Models; Summer; Surface Temperature; Testing; Trees; Urban Forestry; Maryland
El-Anwar, Omar; Chen, Lei. (2013). Computing a Displacement Distance Equivalent to Optimize Plans for Postdisaster Temporary Housing Projects. Journal Of Construction Engineering And Management, 139(2), 174 – 184.
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Abstract
Residence in temporary housing is a critical period for the social, economic, and psychological recovery of displaced families following disasters. Temporary housing locations define the displacement distance between families and their essential needs. The objective of this paper is to develop a novel methodology to capture the specific proximity needs and preferences of displaced families. This paper proposes a displacement distance equivalent as an objective metric to evaluate the performance of temporary housing locations in meeting the needs of displaced families. Moreover, the paper describes the development of an integer programming optimization model capable of optimizing temporary housing assignments to minimize total displacement distance equivalent while meeting budget constraints. The main contribution of this paper to the body of knowledge is in transforming the purpose of temporary housing programs from offering general accommodation to providing customized housing solutions tailored to the individual proximity needs of each household using the proposed displacement metric. In addition, the proposed optimization model enables decision makers to set budget constraints to ensure the economic feasibility of identified temporary housing solutions. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)CO. 1943-7862.0000601. (C) 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.
Keywords
Disasters; Emergency Management; Integer Programming; Social Sciences; Displaced Families; Customized Housing Solutions; Decision Makers; Displacement Metric; Budget Constraints; Integer Programming Optimization Model; Objective Metric; Temporary Housing Locations; Post-disaster Temporary Housing Projects; Displacement Distance Equivalent Computation; Multiobjective Optimization; Optimization; Temporary Housing; Disaster Recovery; Displacement Distance; Housing Sites
Doyle, Emma E. H.; Mcclure, John; Potter, Sally H.; Becker, Julia S.; Johnston, David M.; Lindell, Michael K.; Johal, Sarbjit; Fraser, Stuart A.; Coomer, Maureen A. (2018). Motivations to Prepare After the 2013 Cook Strait Earthquake, N.Z. International Journal Of Disaster Risk Reduction, 31, 637 – 649.
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Abstract
We investigated responses to the 2013 Cook Strait earthquake sequence, New Zealand. This included two foreshocks (M5.7 and M5.8) and a mainshock doublet pair: M6.5 Cook Strait (CS) earthquake on 21st July and M6.6 Lake Grassmere (LG) earthquake on Friday 16th August. We examined relationships between preparedness, experience and beliefs during the earthquakes, as well as concern and subsequent preparedness actions. Results indicate that earthquake characteristics (e.g., time, location) influence the types of preparedness actions. While there was a reduction in new actions from the first mainshock doublet earthquake (CS) to the second (LG), there were a large number of participants who reviewed or revisited their prior actions, related to their beliefs about impacts, in a form of problem-focused targeted action. Females took more actions than did males, and had a higher rate of immediate aftershock concern. For all participants, concern was greater after the CS earthquake than after the full earthquake sequence, supporting the findings of McClure et al. (2016) that there is a limited window after an event to maximise the opportunity for effective preparedness initiatives. Findings additionally suggest that such post-earthquake preparedness initiatives should consider the impacts that elicited the highest rate of concern in an event, and should tailor messages towards them. While this earthquake sequence resulted in low levels of impact and damage, it presents interesting findings regarding how disruption (in lieu of major damage) influences earthquake preparedness actions, which is particularly important to understand in highly active regions often exposed to smaller impact events.
Keywords
Seismic Hazard Adjustments; Risk Communication; Decision-making; Natural Hazards; Unrealistic Optimism; Different Regions; Volcanic Crisis; Perception; Disaster; Behavior; Earthquakes; Preparedness; Beliefs; Concern; Actions; Gender
Pedersen, Katherine M.; Busch Isaksen, Tania M.; Baker, Marissa G.; Seixas, Noah; Errett, Nicole A. (2021). Climate Change Impacts and Workforce Development Needs in Federal Region X: A Qualitative Study of Occupational Health and Safety Professionals’ Perceptions. International Journal Of Environmental Research And Public Health, 18(4).
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Abstract
Climate change is considered one of the top health threats in the United States. This research sought to (1) to understand the perceptions of occupational health and safety (OHS) professionals regarding the impacts of climate-related hazards on OHS in Region X, and (2) to explore the ideas of these OHS professionals regarding the content of future training programs that would better prepare OHS professionals to identify and mitigate climate-related hazards in Region X. Key informant (KI) interviews with 17 OHS professionals familiar with the climate-related hazards and impacts to OHS in Region X were coded and thematically analyzed. Climate hazards, social and economic impacts from climate-related hazards, and sector-specific worker and workplace impacts from climate-related hazards were described as having interacting relationships that influenced worker health and safety impacts. KIs further described how workplace controls could be used to mitigate OHS impacts of climate-related hazards, and how training of the OHS workforce could influence the ability to successfully implement such controls. Our findings suggest that OHS impacts are sector-specific, influenced by social and economic factors, and can be mitigated through workplace controls designed and implemented by a trained OHS workforce. The findings from this work should inform future educational and training programming and additional research and translation activities in the region, while our approach can inform other regions as they develop regionally specific OHS climate change training and programming.
Keywords
Heat-related Illness; Workers; Stress; Occupational Health And Safety; Climate Change; Climate-related Hazards; Pacific Northwest; Education; Training; Key Informant Interviews
El-Anwar, Omar; Chen, Lei. (2014). Maximizing the Computational Efficiency of Temporary Housing Decision Support Following Disasters. Journal Of Computing In Civil Engineering, 28(1), 113 – 123.
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Abstract
Postdisaster temporary housing has long been a challenging problem because of its interlinked socioeconomic, political, and financial dimensions. A significant need for automated decision support was obvious to address this problem. Previous research achieved considerable advancements in developing optimization models that can quantify and optimize the impacts of temporary housing decisions on the socioeconomic welfare of displaced families and total public expenditures on temporary housing as well as other objectives. However, the computational complexity of these models hindered its practical use and adoption by emergency planners. This article analyzes the computational efficiency of the current implementation of the most advanced socioeconomic formulation of the temporary housing problem, which uses integer programming. Moreover, it presents the development of a customized variant of the Hungarian algorithm that has a superior computational performance while maintaining the highest quality of solutions. An application example is presented to demonstrate the unique capabilities of the new algorithm in solving large-scale problems.
Keywords
Decision Support Systems; Emergency Management; Integer Programming; Computational Efficiency; Temporary Housing Decision Support Following Disasters; Financial Dimensions; Political Dimensions; Socioeconomic Dimensions; Socioeconomic Welfare; Emergency Planners; Socioeconomic Formulation; Hungarian Algorithm; Multiobjective Optimization; Maeviz-hazturk; Housing; Computation; Disasters; Temporary Structures; Temporary Housing; Optimization; Disaster Management
Jon, Ihnji; Huang, Shih-kai; Lindell, Michael K. (2018). Perceptions and Reactions to Tornado Warning Polygons: Would a Gradient Polygon Be Useful? International Journal Of Disaster Risk Reduction, 30, 132 – 144.
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Abstract
To better understand people's interpretations of National Weather Service's tornado warning polygons, 145 participants were shown 22 hypothetical scenarios in one of four displays-deterministic polygon, deterministic polygon + radar image, gradient polygon, and gradient polygon + radar image. Participants judged each polygon's numerical strike probability (p(s)) and reported the likelihood of taking seven different response actions. The deterministic polygon display produced p(s) that were highest at the polygon's centroid and declined in all directions from there. The deterministic polygon + radar display, the gradient polygon display, and the gradient polygon + radar display produced p(s) that were high at the polygon's centroid and also at its edge nearest the tornadic storm cell. Overall, p(s) values were negatively related to resuming normal activities, but positively correlated with expectations of resuming normal activities, seeking information from social sources, seeking shelter, and evacuating by car. These results replicate the finding that participants make more appropriate p(s) judgments when polygons are presented in their natural context of radar images than when the polygons are presented in isolation and that gradient displays appear to provide no appreciable benefit. The fact that p(s) judgments had moderately positive correlations with both sheltering (a generally appropriate response) and evacuation (a generally inappropriate response) provides experimental confirmation that people threatened by actual tornadoes are conflicted about which protective action to take.
Keywords
Protective Action; Uncertainty; Risk; Psychology; Casualties; Tornado Warning Polygons; Risk Perceptions; Protective Actions