Lindell, Michael K.; Prater, Carla S.; House, Donald H. (2022). Cascadia Subduction Zone Residents’ Tsunami Evacuation Expectations. Geosciences (2076-3263), 12(5).
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Abstract
The U.S. Pacific Northwest coast must be prepared to evacuate immediately after a Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake. This requires coastal residents to understand the tsunami threat, have accurate expectations about warning sources, engage in preimpact evacuation preparedness actions, and plan (and practice) their evacuation logistics, including an appropriate transportation mode, evacuation route, and destination. A survey of 221 residents in three communities identified areas in which many coastal residents have reached adequate levels of preparedness. Moreover, residents who are not adequately prepared are willing to improve their performance in most of the areas in which they fall short. However, many respondents expect to engage in time-consuming evacuation preparations before evacuating. Additionally, their estimates of evacuation travel time might be inaccurate because only 28-52% had practiced their evacuation routes. These results indicate that more coastal residents should prepare grab-and-go kits to speed their departure, as well as practice evacuation preparation and evacuation travel to test the accuracy of these evacuation time estimates. Overall, these results, together with recommendations for overcoming them, can guide CSZ emergency managers in methods of improving hazard awareness and education programs. In addition, these data can guide transportation engineers' evacuation analyses and evacuation plans.
Keywords
Subduction Zones; Tsunamis; Tsunami Warning Systems; Civilian Evacuation; Earthquake Zones; Transportation Engineering; Expectation (psychology); Residents; Cascadia Subduction Zone; Evacuation Preparedness; Evacuation Time Estimates; Tsunami; Natural Warning Signs; Coastal Communities; American-samoa; New-zealand; Earthquake; Behavior; Preparedness; Awareness; Japan; Washington; Earthquakes; Transportation; Evacuations & Rescues; Travel Time; Subduction; Surveying; Evacuation; Travel; Coasts; Emergency Warning Programs; Seismic Activity; Emergency Preparedness; Perceptions; Traveltime; Coastal Zone; Peers; Estimates; Logistics; Evacuation Routing; Subduction (geology); Households; United States--us; Pacific Northwest; Cascadia
Aggarwal, Anju; Cook, Andrea J.; Jiao, Junfeng; Seguin, Rebecca A.; Moudon, Anne Vernez; Hurvitz, Philip M.; Drewnowski, Adam. (2014). Access to Supermarkets and Fruit and Vegetable Consumption. American Journal Of Public Health, 104(5), 917 – 923.
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Abstract
Objectives. We examined whether supermarket choice, conceptualized as a proxy for underlying personal factors, would better predict access to supermarkets and fruit and vegetable consumption than mere physical proximity. Methods. The Seattle Obesity Study geocoded respondents' home addresses and locations of their primary supermarkets. Primary supermarkets were stratified into low, medium, and high cost according to the market basket cost of 100 foods. Data on fruit and vegetable consumption were obtained during telephone surveys. Linear regressions examined associations between physical proximity to primary supermarkets, supermarket choice, and fruit and vegetable consumption. Descriptive analyses examined whether supermarket choice outweighed physical proximity among lower-income and vulnerable groups. Results. Only one third of the respondents shopped at their nearest supermarket for their primary food supply. Those who shopped at low-cost supermarkets were more likely to travel beyond their nearest supermarket. Fruit and vegetable consumption was not associated with physical distance but, with supermarket choice, after adjusting for covariates. Conclusions. Mere physical distance may not be the most salient variable to reflect access to supermarkets, particularly among those who shop by car. Studies on food environments need to focus beyond neighborhood geographic boundaries to capture actual food shopping behaviors.
Keywords
Confidence Intervals; Correlation (statistics); Fruit; Geographic Information Systems; Ingestion; Multivariate Analysis; Population Geography; Questionnaires; Regression Analysis; Research Funding; Sales Personnel; Shopping; Travel; Vegetables; Predictive Validity; Cross-sectional Method; Statistical Models; Descriptive Statistics; Null Hypothesis; Washington (state); Local Food Environment; Diet Quality; Socioeconomic Position; Atherosclerosis Risk; Stores; Associations; Obesity; Adults; Availability; Communities
Stewart, Orion; Moudon, Anne Vernez; Claybrooke, Charlotte. (2014). Multistate Evaluation of Safe Routes to School Programs. American Journal Of Health Promotion, 28, S89 – S96.
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Abstract
Purpose. State Safe Routes to School (SRTS) programs provide competitive grants to local projects that support safe walking, bicycling, and other modes of active school travel (AST). This study assessed changes in rates of AST after implementation of SRTS projects at multiple sites across four states. Design. One-group pretest and posttest. Setting. Florida, Mississippi, Washington, and Wisconsin. Subjects. Convenience sample of 48 completed SRTS projects and 53 schools affected by a completed SRTS project. Intervention. State-funded SRTS project. Measures. AST was measured as the percentage of students walking, bicycling, or using any AST mode. SRTS project characteristics were measured at the project, school, and school neighborhood levels. Analysis. Paired-samples t-tests were used to assess changes in AST. Bivariate analysis was used to identify SRTS project characteristics associated with increases in AST. Data were analyzed separately at the project (n = 48) and school (n = 53) levels. Results. Statistically significant increases in AST were observed across projects in all four states. All AST modes increased from 12.9% to 17.6%; walking from 9.8% to 14.2%; and bicycling from 2.5% to 3.0%. Increases in rates of bicycling were negatively correlated with baseline rates of bicycling. Conclusion. State-funded SRTS projects are achieving one of the primary program goals of increasing rates of AST. They may be particularly effective at introducing bicycling to communities where it is rare. The evaluation framework introduced in this study can be used to continue tracking the effect of state SRTS programs as more projects are completed.
Keywords
Transportation Of School Children; Physical Activity Measurement; Health Promotion; Cycling; Walking; School Children -- United States; Bicycling; Children; Commuting; Health Focus: Fitness/physical Activity; Manuscript Format: Research; Outcome Measure: Behavioral; Prevention Research; Research Purpose: Program Evaluation; Schools; Setting: School; Strategy: Skill Building/behavior Change, Built Environment; Study Design: Quasi-experimental; Target Population Age: Youth; Target Population Circumstances: Geographic Location; Physical-activity; Mental-health; Travel; Association; Validity; Mode; Bus
Drewnowski, Adam; Aggarwal, Anju; Tang, Wesley; Hurvitz, Philip M.; Scully, Jason; Stewart, Orion; Moudon, Anne Vernez. (2016). Obesity, Diet Quality, Physical Activity, and the Built Environment: The Need for Behavioral Pathways. BMC Public Health, 16.
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Abstract
Background: The built environment ( BE) is said to influence local obesity rates. Few studies have explored causal pathways between home-neighborhood BE variables and health outcomes such as obesity. Such pathways are likely to involve both physical activity and diet. Methods: The Seattle Obesity Study ( SOS II) was a longitudinal cohort of 440 adult residents of King Co, WA. Home addresses were geocoded. Home-neighborhood BE measures were framed as counts and densities of food sources and physical activity locations. Tax parcel property values were obtained from County tax assessor. Healthy Eating Index ( HEI 2010) scores were constructed using data from food frequency questionnaires. Physical activity ( PA) was obtained by self-report. Weights and heights were measured at baseline and following 12 months' exposure. Multivariable regressions examined the associations among BE measures at baseline, health behaviors ( HEI-2010 and physical activity) at baseline, and health outcome both cross-sectionally and longitudinally. Results: None of the conventional neighborhood BE metrics were associated either with diet quality, or with meeting PA guidelines. Only higher property values did predict better diets and more physical activity. Better diets and more physical activity were associated with lower obesity prevalence at baseline and 12 mo, but did not predict weight change. Conclusion: Any links between the BE and health outcomes critically depend on establishing appropriate behavioral pathways. In this study, home-centric BE measures, were not related to physical activity or to diet. Further studies will need to consider a broader range of BE attributes that may be related to diets and health.
Keywords
Body-mass Index; Local Food Environment; Residential Property-values; Supermarket Accessibility; Park Proximity; Neighborhood Walkability; Vegetable Consumption; Atherosclerosis Risk; Restaurant Food; Associations; Built Environment; Physical Activity; Obesity; Diet Quality
Chaix, Basile; Duncan, Dustin; Vallee, Julie; Vernez-moudon, Anne; Benmarhnia, Tarik; Kestens, Yan. (2017). The Residential Effect Fallacy in Neighborhood and Health Studies Formal Definition, Empirical Identification, and Correction. Epidemiology, 28(6), 789 – 797.
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Abstract
Background: Because of confounding from the urban/rural and socioeconomic organizations of territories and resulting correlation between residential and nonresidential exposures, classically estimated residential neighborhood-outcome associations capture nonresidential environment effects, overestimating residential intervention effects. Our study diagnosed and corrected this residential effect fallacy bias applicable to a large fraction of neighborhood and health studies. Methods: Our empirical application investigated the effect that hypothetical interventions raising the residential number of services would have on the probability that a trip is walked. Using global positioning systems tracking and mobility surveys over 7 days (227 participants and 7440 trips), we employed a multilevel linear probability model to estimate the trip-level association between residential number of services and walking to derive a naive intervention effect estimate and a corrected model accounting for numbers of services at the residence, trip origin, and trip destination to determine a corrected intervention effect estimate (true effect conditional on assumptions). Results: There was a strong correlation in service densities between the residential neighborhood and nonresidential places. From the naive model, hypothetical interventions raising the residential number of services to 200, 500, and 1000 were associated with an increase by 0.020, 0.055, and 0.109 of the probability of walking in the intervention groups. Corrected estimates were of 0.007, 0.019, and 0.039. Thus, naive estimates were overestimated by multiplicative factors of 3.0, 2.9, and 2.8. Conclusions: Commonly estimated residential intervention-outcome associations substantially overestimate true effects. Our somewhat paradoxical conclusion is that to estimate residential effects, investigators critically need information on nonresidential places visited.
Keywords
Self-rated Health; Record Cohort; Physical-activity; Transportation Modes; Built Environment; Activity Spaces; Research Agenda; Risk-factors; Associations; Exposure
Chen, Peng; Sun, Feiyang; Wang, Zhenbo; Gao, Xu; Jiao, Junfeng; Tao, Zhimin. (2018). Built Environment Effects on Bike Crash Frequency and Risk in Beijing. Journal Of Safety Research, 64, 135 – 143.
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Abstract
Introduction: Building a safe biking environment is crucial to encouraging bicycle use. In developed areas with higher density and more mixed land use, the built environment factors that pose a crash risk may vary. This study investigates the connection between biking risk factors and the compact built environment, using data for Beijing. Method: In the context of China, this paper seeks to answer two research questions. First, what types of built environment factors are correlated with bike-automobile crash frequency and risk? Second, how do risk factors vary across different types of bikes? Poisson lognormal random effects models are employed to examine how land use and roadway design factors are associated with the bike-automobile crashes. Results: The main findings are: (1) bike-automobile crashes are more likely to occur in densely developed areas, which is characterized by higher population density, more mixed land use, denser roads and junctions, and more parking lots; (2) areas with greater ground transit are correlated with more bike-automobile crashes and higher risks of involving in collisions; (3) the percentages of wider streets show negative associations with bike crash frequency; (4) built environment factors cannot help explain factors contributing to motorcycle-automobile crashes. Practical Applications: In China's dense urban context, important policy implications for bicycle safety improvement drawn from this study include: prioritizing safety programs in urban centers, applying safety improvements to areas with more ground transit, placing bike-automobile crash countermeasures at road junctions, and improving bicycle safety on narrower streets. (C) 2018 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights
Keywords
Motorcycling Accidents; Built Environment; Motorcycling; Poisson Distribution; Safety; Beijing (china); Bike-automobile Crash; Frequency; Poisson Lognormal Random Effects Model; Risk; Signalized Intersections; Transportation Modes; Urban Intersections; Bicycle Crashes; Motor-vehicle; Riders; Infrastructure; China; Severity; Frequency Distribution; Risk Factors; Bicycles; Fatalities; Collisions; Traffic Accidents; Safety Programs; Urban Environments; Traffic Safety; Population Density; Crashes; Streets; Environmental Effects; Environmental Engineering; Roads; Land Use; Risk Analysis; Urban Areas; Road Design; Construction; Ecological Risk Assessment; Design Factors; Motorcycles; Urban Transportation; Studies; Safety Management; Beijing China
Ochsner, Jeffrey Karl. (2018). The Experience of Prospect and Refuge: Frank Lloyd Wright’s Houses as Holding Environments. American Imago, 75(2), 179 – 211.
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Keywords
Reverie
Nkyekyer, Esi W.; Dannenberg, Andrew L. (2019). Use and Effectiveness of Health Impact Assessment in the Energy and Natural Resources Sector in the United States, 2007 – 2016. Impact Assessment & Project Appraisal, 37(1), 17 – 32.
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Abstract
Decisions made in the energy and natural resources sector can affect public health. This report reviews the characteristics and assesses the effectiveness of health impact assessments (HIAs) conducted in this sector. A total of 30 HIAs conducted in 14 states in the United States were identified using a targeted literature search. Five HIAs illustrative of the different source and sub-sector categories, and with identifiable impacts on decision-making processes were selected for review. An existing conceptual framework (Wismar) was used to assess the effectiveness of the five selected HIAs on decision-making related to non-renewable energy, renewable energy, mining, and energy conservation. The 30 HIAs were performed for a variety of projects and assessed health impacts ranging from metabolic disorders to community livability. Eight of the 30 reports were incorporated into environmental impact assessments. All five selected HIAs were generally effective and raised awareness of the health effects of the projects being assessed; four were directly effective and led to changes in final project decisions. Their variable effectiveness may be related to the extent of community engagement and consideration of equity issues, differences in the details and quality of monitoring and evaluation plans devised as part of the HIA process, and whether the outcomes of monitoring and evaluation are reported.
Keywords
Health Impact Assessment; Health Equity; Natural Resources; Environmental Impact Analysis; Power Resources; U.s. States; Energy Conservation; United States; Decision-making Effectiveness; Energy And Natural Resources; Wismar Framework; Horizon Oil-spill; Wind Turbine Noise; Quality-of-life; Environmental-health; Gas Development; Mental-health; Exposure; Vicinity; Hazards; Sleep; Environmental Assessment; Public Health; Metabolic Disorders; Renewable Energy; Monitoring; Decision Making; Evaluation; Environmental Impact; Community Involvement; Environmental Impact Assessment; Renewable Resources; Decisions; Impact Analysis; Mining; United States--us
Kuriyama, Naoko; Maly, Elizabeth; Leon, Jorge; Abramson, Daniel; Nguyen, Lan T.; Bostrom, Ann. (2020). Towards a Comparative Framework of Adaptive Planning and Anticipatory Action Regimes in Chile, Japan, and the US: An Exploration of Multiple Contexts Informing Tsunami Risk-based Planning and Relocation. Journal Of Disaster Research, 15(7), 878 – 889.
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Abstract
Coastal regions around the Pacific Ring of Fire share the risk of massive earthquakes and tsunamis. Along with their own political-economic, cultural and biophysical contexts, each region has their own history and experiences of tsunami disasters. Coastal areas of Washington State in the U.S. are currently at risk of experiencing a tsunami following a massive Magnitude 9 (M9) earthquake anticipated in the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ). Looking ahead to consider adaptive planning in advance of a tsunami following this M9 event, this paper explores how lessons from recent megaquake- and tsunami-related experiences of risk-based planning and relocation in coastal areas of Japan and Chile could inform anticipatory action in coastal Washington State. Based on a comparison of earthquake and tsunami hazards, social factors, and the roles of government, this paper outlines a framework to compare policy contexts of tsunami risk-based planning and relocation in three Ring of Fire countries, including factors shaping the possible transfer of approaches between them. Findings suggest some aspects of comparative significance and commonalities shared across coastal communities in the three countries and at the same time highlight numerous differences in governance and policies related to planning and relocation. Although there are limitations to the transferability of lessons in disaster adaptive planning and anticipatory action from one national/regional context to another, we believe there is much more that Washington and the Pacific Northwest can learn from Japanese and Chilean experiences. In any context, risk reduction policies and actions need to garner political support in order to be implemented. Additional case study research and detailed analysis is still needed to understand specific lessons that may be applied to detailed risk-based planning and relocation programs across these different national contexts.
Keywords
Great Earthquake Recurrence; Land-use; Statistical-analyses; Subduction Zone; New-zealand; Community; Recovery; Management; Cascadia; Policies; Risk-based Planning; Earthquake; Tsunami; Disaster Governance; Residential Relocation
Aziz, Ahmed M. Abdel. (2021). The Practice of Roadway Safety Management in Public-Private Partnerships. Journal Of Construction Engineering And Management, 147(12).
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Abstract
As a matter of course, the private party in public-private partnerships (PPPs) assumes the responsibility for roadway safety management (RSM). However, because most PPPs are performance-based, public highway agencies must articulate the specifications and methods they develop to enforce RSM practices. Despite the increased interest in PPPs in recent decades, little has been published on developing and propagating the RSM practices used with this delivery system. To fill this research gap and explore RSM practices in PPPs, this work took a synthesis research approach, using content analysis to critically review and analyze 16 PPP agreements in seven states and provinces leading in PPP contracting in North America. The study discovered several methods and organized them under five mechanisms: Mechanism 1, integrating roadway safety into project performance specifications and initiating new tools such as safety compliance orders; Mechanism 2, imposing nonconformance monetary deductions based on point and classification systems; Mechanism 3, regulating safety payments on the basis of crash statistics; Mechanism 4, promoting safety initiative programs; and Mechanism 5, enforcing administrative countermeasures such as work suspension and default/termination triggers for persistent developer noncompliance. Mechanisms 1 and 5 were the default mechanisms in all toll- and availability-based projects, whereas Mechanism 2 was common in availability-only projects. The research reviewed the RSM packages in the PPP agreements, elucidating the particulars of the RSM mechanisms, highlighting RSM design considerations, presenting implementation guidelines, and articulating research needs. The research results were validated against PPP highways in five other states and provinces. This synthesis research provides highway agencies with an extensive practice review to support RSM package design for future PPP projects.
Keywords
Qualitative Research; Incentives; Public-private Partnerships (ppps); Performance Specifications; Roadway Safety; Payment Mechanisms; Availability Payment; Highways