Chen, Chen; Koll, Charles; Wang, Haizhong; Lindell, Michael K . 2023. “An Interdisciplinary Agent-Based Evacuation Model: Integrating the Natural Environment, Built Environment, and Social System for Community Preparedness and Resilience.” Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 23 (2).
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Abstract
Previous tsunami evacuation simulations have mostly been based on arbitrary assumptions or inputs adapted from non-emergency situations, but a few studies have used empirical behavior data. This study bridges this gap by integrating empirical decision data from surveys on local evacuation expectations and evacuation drills into an agent-based model of evacuation behavior for two Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) communities that would be inundated within 20–40 min after a CSZ earthquake. The model also considers the impacts of liquefaction and landslides from the earthquake on tsunami evacuation. Furthermore, we integrate the slope-speed component from least-cost distance to build the simulation model that better represents the complex nature of evacuations. The simulation results indicate that milling time and the evacuation participation rate have significant nonlinear impacts on tsunami mortality estimates. When people walk faster than 1 m s -1 , evacuation by foot is more effective because it avoids traffic congestion when driving. We also find that evacuation results are more sensitive to walking speed, milling time, evacuation participation, and choosing the closest safe location than to other behavioral variables. Minimum tsunami mortality results from maximizing the evacuation participation rate, minimizing milling time, and choosing the closest safe destination outside of the inundation zone. This study's comparison of the agent-based model and the beat-the-wave (BtW) model finds consistency between the two models' results. By integrating the natural system, built environment, and social system, this interdisciplinary model incorporates substantial aspects of the real world into the multi-hazard agent-based platform. This model provides a unique opportunity for local authorities to prioritize their resources for hazard education, community disaster preparedness, and resilience plans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Lindell, Michael K., Meen Chel Jung, Carla S. Prater, and Donald H. House. 2023. “US Pacific Coast Communities’ Past Preparedness and Preparedness Intentions for Cascadia Subduction Zone Tsunamis.” International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 84.
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Abstract
This study examined tsunami awareness and preparedness by 225 respondents in three communities exposed to Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) tsunamis. Some participants viewed a tsunami brochure, but all participants reported their degree of information sufficiency about tsunamis and protective actions to take when a tsunami threatens, expected warning sources for local and distant tsunamis, past preparedness actions and preparedness intentions, tsunami experience, past tsunami information, perceived tsunami zone, and demographic characteristics. In addition to the results showing that the brochure had a significant positive effect on tsunami information sufficiency and expected warning sources, the latter two variables affected intentions to engage in future preparedness actions. In addition, tsunami experience, past tsunami infor-mation, and past preparedness also affected these variables. Although psychological responses were significantly related to preparedness intentions, they were not related to hypothesized antecedent variables-tsunami experience, past preparedness, past information, and de-mographic characteristics. The data suggest that emergency managers can promote tsunami hazard education by distributing comprehensive tsunami brochures, but should also work with local news media to direct CSZ residents to agency web sites where they can access additional information about tsunami hazard, expected warning sources, appropriate preparedness, and response actions.
Keywords
Cascadia subduction zone tsunamis; Risk communication; Tsunami hazard awareness; Tsunami preparedness
Dermisi, S. (2023). Office Development. In R. Peiser & D. Hamilton (Eds.), Professional Real Estate Development: The ULI Guide to the Business. Urban Land Institute.
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Abstract
The office chapter, authored by Dr. Sofia Dermisi -Lyon and Wolff Endowed Professor in Real Estate and Professor of Urban Design & Planning, identifies ways the technological and structural sustainability boundaries are pushed and how the pandemic has shifted the office occupant expectations on health and well-being, while embracing alternative ways of working through flexibility and adaptability. Office case studies highlight creative ways of linking new with historic landmark structures, overcoming various development challenges, and integrating valuable features in a post-covid era. Additionally, the evolution and repositioning of retail due to the rise of e-commerce and its impact on brick-and-mortar stores provides insights on future trends. While consumer behavior trends, which accelerated during the pandemic, created the emergence of new types of industrial facilities.
Archer, Megan, Pedersen, Katherine, Kennedy, Mallory, & Errett, Nicole A. (2022). Integrating Health Considerations into Local Level Recovery Planning: An Exploration of Florida’s Recovery and Redevelopment Plans. Journal of Disaster Research, 17(7), 1150–1157.
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Abstract
Objective: Disasters result in impacts to the health and wellbeing of members of affected communities, as well as damage to healthcare infrastructure. These impacts are not experienced equally, and often disproportionately affect those facing higher health, social and economic risks even before a disaster strikes. Recovery planning provides an opportunity for pre-emptive consideration of how to address pre-existing health vulnerabilities and disparities, as well as insufficient and/or inequitable access to healthcare, with the resources and momentum that often come following a disaster. After the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons, Florida began requiring coastal jurisdictions to plan for recovery. This study sought to identify if and how Florida jurisdictions have integrated health-sector restoration and revitalization strategies into local disaster recovery planning. Design: Plans were collected and coded using content analysis methods. Setting: Florida, USA. Participants: 16 county-level disaster recovery and post-disaster redevelopment plans. Results: While nearly three-quarters of plans described actions to address both short-term healthcare and behavioral health needs, the majority of recovery plans lacked long-term health-sector recovery activities and approaches to collect and analyze data to guide health-related recovery efforts. Moreover, plans did not explicitly call for evaluating health-sector recovery strategies. Conclusions: Additional resources are necessary to ensure local jurisdictions integrate short- and long-term health-sector strategies into disaster recovery planning.
Keywords
Disaster; Recovery; Planning; Health promotion
Kim, Boeun, Barrington, Wendy E., Dobra, Adrian, Rosenberg, Dori, Hurvitz, Philip, & Belza, Basia. (2022). Mediating Role of Walking between Perceived and Objective Walkability and Cognitive Function in Older Adults. Health & Place, 79.
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Abstract
The aim of this study was to examine the role of walking in explaining associations between perceived and objective measures of walkability and cognitive function among older adults. The study employed a cross-sectional design analyzing existing data. Data were obtained from the Adult Changes in Thought Activity Monitor study. Cognitive function and perceived walkability were measured by a survey. Objective walkability was measured using geographic information systems (GIS). Walking was measured using an accelerometer. We tested the mediating relationship based on 1,000 bootstrapped samples. Perceived walkability was associated with a 0.04 point higher cognitive function score through walking (p = 0.006). The mediating relationship accounted for 34% of the total relationship between perceived walkability and cognitive function. Walking did not have a significant indirect relationship on the association between objective walkability and cognitive function. Perceived walkability may be more relevant to walking behavior than objective walkability among older adults. Greater levels of perceived walkability may encourage older adults to undertake more walking, and more walking may in turn improve cognitive function in older adults.
Keywords
Built environment; Cognitive function; Walking; Mediation analysis; Older adults
Saelens, Brian E., Hurvitz, Philip M., Zhou, C., Colburn, T., Marchese, A., & Moudon, Anne Vernez (2022). Impact of a Light Rail Transit Line on Physical Activity: Findings from the Longitudinal Travel Assessment and Community (TRAC) Study. Journal of Transport & Health, 27.
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Abstract
Increasing transit infrastructure could increase transit use and result in higher physical activity if users actively travel to access transit. Few studies have rigorously examined transit use and physical activity change from before to years after among residents living close versus farther away from new transit options.Methods: An initial sample (n = 722) of residents living either close (1 mile network distance; unexposed) from future new light rail transit (LRT) stops in the Seattle/King County area were recruited and assessed prior to LRT opening and again 1-2 and 3-4 years later. At each assessment timepoint, residents wore an accelerometer and GPS data logger for 7 days and completed a 7-day travel log and demographic and attitudinal survey. Difference-in-difference analyses examined longitudinal change between those exposed versus unexposed to LRT in physical activity, walking (both utilitarian and recreational), and transit-related walking, and transit use.Results: There was no differential change by LRT exposure in overall physical activity (including or not including light intensity physical activity), recreational walking, or utilitarian walking, with most decreasing significantly in both exposure conditions through follow-ups. There was a differential change in transit-related walking, with those exposed to LRT slightly increasing such physical activity to the most distal follow-up, but the difference from the unexposed condition was modest (<2 min/day). There was no substantial differential change over time in transit use by LRT exposure.Conclusions: Exposure to a new light rail line did not markedly change the frequency of transit use of nearby residents, but did result in a small increase in transit-related walking relative to those unexposed. This did not differentially change the amount of overall physical activity or time spent walking compared to residents living farther away from the new LRT.
Keywords
Public Transit; Accelerometer Data; Built Environment; Behavior; Walking; Transportation; Neighborhood; Time; GPS
Lee, Sungmin, Lee, Chanam, Won Nam, Ji, Vernez Moudon, Anne, & Mendoza, Jason A. (2023). Street Environments and Crime around Low-income and Minority Schools: Adopting an Environmental Audit Tool to Assess Crime Prevention Through Environmental Design (CPTED). Landscape and Urban Planning, 232.
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Abstract
• CPTED principles have been applied in school neighborhood safety. • Multiple crime types had significant associations with CPTED principles. • The cleanliness of streets and visual quality of buildings can reduce crime. • Being adjacent to multi-family housing and bus stops can increase crime. • The findings add to the evidence supporting the effectiveness of CPTED initiatives. Crime prevention through environmental design (CPTED) suggests an association between micro-scale environmental conditions and crime, but little empirical research exists on the detailed street-level environmental features associated with crime near low-income and minority schools. This study focuses on the neighborhoods around 14 elementary schools serving lower income populations in Seattle, WA to assess if the distribution of crime incidences (2013–2017) is linked with the street-level environmental features that reflect CPTED principles. We used a total of 40 audit variables that were included in the four domains derived from the broken windows theory and CPTED principles: natural surveillance (e.g., number of windows, balconies, and a sense of surveillance), territoriality (e.g., crime watch signs, trees), image/maintenance (e.g., graffiti and a sense of maintenance/cleanness), and geographical juxtaposition (e.g., bus stops, presence of arterial). We found that multiple crime types had significant associations with CPTED components at the street level. Among the CPTED domains, two image/maintenance features (i.e., maintenance of streets and visual quality of buildings) and two geographical juxtaposition features (i.e., being adjacent to multi-family housing and bus stops) were consistently associated with both violent and property crime. The findings suggest that local efforts to improve maintenance of streets and visual quality of buildings and broader planning efforts to control specific land uses near schools are important to improve safety in marginalized neighborhoods near schools that tend to be more vulnerable to crime. Our research on micro-scale environmental determinants of crime can also serve as promising targets for CPTED research and initiatives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Keywords
CPTED; Crime; Environmental audit; Micro-scale environment of Crime; Street environments
Lindell, Michael K; Jung, Meen Chel; Prater, Carla S; House, Donald H (2023). Evaluation of Hazard Brochures Using Topic Viewing Durations: Application to Tsunami Evacuation Brochures. Risk Analysis.
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Abstract
This study describes a novel method of assessing risk communication effectiveness by reporting an evaluation of a tsunami information brochure by 90 residents of three Pacific coast communities that are vulnerable to a Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake and tsunami—Commencement Bay, Washington; Lincoln City, Oregon; and Eureka, California. Study participants viewed information that was presented in DynaSearch, an internet‐based computer system that allowed them to view text boxes and tsunami inundation zone maps. DynaSearch recorded the number of times each text box or map was clicked and the length of time that it was viewed. This information viewing phase was followed by questionnaire pages assessing important aspects of tsunami hazard and sources of tsunami warnings. Participants gave the longest click durations to what to do in the emergency period during earthquake shaking and in its immediate aftermath before a tsunami arrives—topics that should be displayed prominently in tsunami brochures and emphasized in talks to community groups. The smallest adjusted click durations were associated with advance preparations for a tsunami—topics that can be posted on websites whose URLs are printed in the brochures.
Keywords
DynaSearch; hazard awareness brochure; Protective Action Decision Model
Arthur Acolin, Associate Professor and Bob Filley Endowed Chair in the Runstad Department of Real Estate, was recently awarded an NIH R21 grant for his project entitled ‘Gentrification, Mobility, and Exposure to Contextual Determinants of Health.’ The project will examine how gentrification affects mobility patterns at the neighborhood levels and changes exposure to contextual determinants of health that have been shown to contribute to social and race/ethnic inequalities in health. The proposed research leverages consumer trace data from Data Axle…
Shi, Xiao; Moudon, Anne Vernez; Lee, Brian H. Y.; Shen, Qing; Ban, Xuegang (Jeff). (2020). Factors Influencing Teleworking Productivity – a Natural Experiment during the COVID-19 Pandemic. Findings.
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Abstract
Of 2174 surveyed adults who were teleworking following the implementation of a Covid-19 work-from-home policy, 23.8% reported an increase in productivity, 37.6% no change, and 38.6% a decrease in productivity compared to working at their prior workplace. After controlling for feelings of depression and anxiety likely caused by pandemic-related circumstances, the socioeconomic characteristics associated with no change or an increase in productivity after shifting to teleworking included being older; not employed in higher education; having lower education attainment; and not living with children. Respondents with longer commute trips in single-occupancy vehicles prior to teleworking were more likely to be more productive but those with longer commute by walking were not. Lifestyle changes associated with increased productivity included better sleep quality, spending less time on social media, but more time on personal hobbies.