Chen, Chen; Lindell, Michael K.; Wang, Haizhong. (2021). Tsunami Preparedness and Resilience in the Cascadia Subduction Zone: A Multistage Model of Expected Evacuation Decisions and Mode Choice. International Journal Of Disaster Risk Reduction, 59.
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Abstract
Physical scientists have estimated that the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) has as much as a 25% chance to produce a M9.0 earthquake and tsunami in the next 50 years, but few studies have used survey data to assess household risk perceptions, emergency preparedness, and evacuation intentions. To understand these phenomena, this study conducted a mail-based household questionnaire using the Protective Action Decision Model (PADM) as a guide to collect 483 responses from two coastal communities in the CSZ: Crescent City, CA and Coos Bay, OR. We applied multistage regression models to assess the effects of critical PADM variables. The results showed that three psychological variables (risk perception, perceived hazard knowledge, and evacuation mode efficacy) were associated with some demographic variables and experience variables. Evacuation intention and evacuation mode choice are associated with those psychological variables but not with demographic variables. Contrary to previous studies, location and experience had no direct impact on evacuation intention or mode choice. We also analyzed expected evacuation mode compliance and the potential of using micro-mobility during tsunami response. This study provides empirical evidence of tsunami preparedness and intentions to support interdisciplinary evacuation modeling, tsunami hazard education, community disaster preparedness, and resilience plans.
Keywords
False Discovery Rate; American-samoa; Earthquake; Washington; Behavior; Oregon; Wellington; Responses; Disaster; Tsunami Evacuation; Cascadia Subduction Zone; Risk Perception
Lin, Lin; Chen, Xueming (Jimmy); Moudon, Anne Vernez. (2021). Measuring the Urban Forms of Shanghai’s City Center and Its New Districts: A Neighborhood-Level Comparative Analysis. Sustainability, 13(15).
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Abstract
Rapid urban expansion has radically transformed the city centers and the new districts of Chinese cities. Both areas have undergone unique redevelopment and development over the past decades, generating unique urban forms worthy of study. To date, few studies have investigated development patterns and land use intensities at the neighborhood level. The present study aims to fill the gap and compare the densities of different types of developments and the spatial compositions of different commercial uses at the neighborhood level. We captured the attributes of their built environment that support instrumental activities of daily living of 710 neighborhoods centered on the public elementary schools of the entire Shanghai municipality using application programming interfaces provided in Baidu Map services. The 200 m neighborhood provided the best fit to capture the variations of the built environment. Overall, city center neighborhoods had significantly higher residential densities and housed more daily routine destinations than their counterparts in the new districts. Unexpectedly, however, the total length of streets was considerably smaller in city-center neighborhoods, likely reflecting the prominence of the wide multilane vehicular roads surrounding large center city redevelopment projects. The findings point to convergence between the city center's urban forms and that of the new districts.
Keywords
Quantifying Spatiotemporal Patterns; Fast-food Restaurants; Instrumental Activities; Physical-activity; Chinese Cities; Land; Schools; Redevelopment; Expansion; Transformation; Built Environment; Planning; Neighborhood; Urban Form; Shanghai
Zou, Tianqi; Aemmer, Zack; Mackenzie, Don; Laberteaux, Ken. (2022). A Framework for Estimating Commute Accessibility and Adoption of Ridehailing Services Under Functional Improvements from Vehicle Automation. Journal Of Transport Geography, 102.
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Abstract
This paper develops an analytical framework to estimate commute accessibility and adoption of various ridehailing service concepts across the US by synthesizing individual commute trips using national Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics Origin-Destination Employment Statistics (LODES) data. Focusing on potential improvements in cost and time that could be enabled by vehicle automation, we use this modeling framework to simulate a lower-price autonomous service (e.g., 50% or 75% lower) with variable wait times and implementation levels (solo, pooled, and first/last mile transit connections services, alone or in combination) to determine how they might affect adoption rates. These results are compared across metrics of accessibility and trip density, as well as socioeconomic factors such as household income. We find - unsurprisingly - that major cities (e.g. New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago) support the highest adoption rates for ridehailing services. Decreases in price tend to increase market share and accessibility. The effect of a decrease in price is more drastic for lower income groups. The proposed method for synthesizing trips using the LODES contributes to current travel demand forecasting methods and the proposed analytic framework can be flexibly implemented with any other mode choice model, extended to non-commute trips, or applied to different levels of geographic aggregation.
Keywords
Choice Of Transportation; Demand Forecasting; Poor People; Adoption; Price Cutting; Metropolis; Employment Statistics; Los Angeles (calif.); New York (state); Chicago (ill.); Accessibility; Autonomous Vehicles; New Mobility Services; Ridehailing; Travel Demand; Preferences
El-Anwar, Omar; El-Rayes, Khaled; Elnashai, Amr. (2010). Maximizing Temporary Housing Safety after Natural Disasters. Journal Of Infrastructure Systems, 16(2), 138 – 148.
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Abstract
In the aftermath of large-scale natural disasters, emergency management organizations are expected to provide safe temporary housing for a large number of displaced families and to ensure that these housing arrangements are not located in hazardous areas. Potential postdisaster hazards can take many forms such as earthquake aftershocks, landslides, postearthquake soil liquefaction, flooding, hazardous material releases, etc. This paper presents the development of a multiobjective optimization methodology to support decision-makers in emergency management organizations in optimizing postdisaster temporary housing arrangements. The developed methodology incorporates (1) a safety model to measure and quantify temporary housing safety in the presence of multiple potential postdisaster hazards; (2) a cost model to minimize total public expenditures on temporary housing; and (3) a multiobjective optimization model to simultaneously maximize temporary housing safety and minimize public expenditures on temporary housing. An application to a large region is presented to illustrate the use of the models and demonstrate their capabilities in optimizing postdisaster temporary housing arrangements.
Keywords
Earthquake; Landslides; Optimization; Temporary Housing; Postdisaster Hazards; Housing Safety; Postdisaster Recovery
Hutyra, Lucy R.; Yoon, Byungman; Hepinstall-Cymerman, Jeffrey; Alberti, Marina. (2011). Carbon Consequences of Land Cover Change and Expansion of Urban Lands: A Case Study in the Seattle Metropolitan Region. Landscape And Urban Planning, 103(1), 83 – 93.
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Abstract
Understanding the role humans play in modifying ecosystems through changing land cover is central to addressing our current and emerging environmental challenges. In particular, the consequences of urban growth and land cover change on terrestrial carbon budgets is a growing issue for our rapidly urbanizing planet. Using the lowland Seattle Statistical Metropolitan Area (MSA) region as a case study, this paper explores the consequences of the past land cover changes on vegetative carbon stocks with a combination of direct field measurements and a time series of remote sensing data. Between 1986 and 2007, the amount of urban land cover within the lowland Seattle MSA more than doubled, from 1316 km(2) to 2798 km(2), respectively. Virtually all of the urban expansion was at the expense of forests with the forested area declining from 4472 km(2) in 1986 to 2878 km(2) in 2007. The annual mean rate of urban land cover expansion was 1 +/- 0.6% year(-1). We estimate that the impact of these regional land cover changes on aboveground carbon stocks was an average loss of 1.2 Mg C ha(-1) yr(-1) in vegetative carbon stocks. These carbon losses from urban expansion correspond to nearly 15% of the lowland regional fossil fuel emissions making it an important, albeit typically overlooked, term in regional carbon emissions budgets. As we plan for future urban growth and strive for more ecologically sustainable cities, it is critical that we understand the past patterns and consequences of urban development to inform future land development and conservation strategies. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Keywords
Sprawl; Growth; Carbon Cycle; Emissions; Land Cover; Urbanization; Seattle; Vegetation; Carbon; Carbon Sinks; Case Studies; Cities; Ecosystems; Forests; Fossil Fuels; Humans; Land Use; Planning; Remote Sensing; Time Series Analysis
Lin, K. Y.; Levan, A.; Dossick, C. S. (2012). Teaching Life-Cycle Thinking in Construction Materials and Methods: Evaluation of and Deployment Strategies for Life-Cycle Assessment in Construction Engineering and Management Education. Journal Of Professional Issues In Engineering Education And Practice, 138(3), 163 – 170.
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Keywords
Sustainability; Design
El-Anwar, Omar. (2013). Advancing Optimization of Hybrid Housing Development Plans Following Disasters: Achieving Computational Robustness, Effectiveness, and Efficiency. Journal Of Computing In Civil Engineering, 27(4), 358 – 369.
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Abstract
Following disasters, displaced families often face significant challenges to move from temporary to permanent housing. The Federal Emergency Management Agency is exploring alternative housing pilot programs to evaluate the possibility of providing quickly deployable, affordable housing that can serve both as temporary and permanent housing. Because of the complexities and costs associated with these programs, it is impractical to assume that accelerated permanent housing can fully replace the need for traditional temporary housing, especially in cases of large-scale displacements. A novel methodology was developed to evaluate the socioeconomic benefits of candidate configurations of hybrid housing plans, which incorporates both temporary and accelerated permanent housing developments. This paper presents the computational implementation and performance analysis of this novel methodology to offer a practical decision-support tool to emergency planners. To this end, genetic algorithms and integer-programming optimization models are formulated, and their performances are analyzed based on their effectiveness, efficiency, and robustness. In lieu of developing the integer-programming model, the paper also presents a linear formulation that overcomes the need to use logical operations to model fixed and variable cost components for developing housing projects. Results show the superior performance of integer programming, whereas genetic algorithms offer higher modeling flexibility.
Keywords
Decision Support Systems; Emergency Management; Genetic Algorithms; Integer Programming; Advancing Optimization; Hybrid Housing Development Plans Following Disasters; Achieving Computational Robustness; Achieving Computational Effectiveness; Achieving Computational Efficiency; Federal Emergency Management Agency; Housing Pilot Programs; Temporary Housing; Permanent Housing Developments; Decision-support Tool; Emergency Planners; Integer-programming Optimization Models; Logical Operations; Optimization; Disasters; Housing; Social Factors; Economic Factors; Computation; Hybrid Methods; Disaster Recovery; Accelerated Permanent Housing; Socioeconomic Welfare; Robustness; Effectiveness; Computational Efficiency; 0
Aggarwal, Anju; Cook, Andrea J.; Jiao, Junfeng; Seguin, Rebecca A.; Moudon, Anne Vernez; Hurvitz, Philip M.; Drewnowski, Adam. (2014). Access to Supermarkets and Fruit and Vegetable Consumption. American Journal Of Public Health, 104(5), 917 – 923.
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Abstract
Objectives. We examined whether supermarket choice, conceptualized as a proxy for underlying personal factors, would better predict access to supermarkets and fruit and vegetable consumption than mere physical proximity. Methods. The Seattle Obesity Study geocoded respondents' home addresses and locations of their primary supermarkets. Primary supermarkets were stratified into low, medium, and high cost according to the market basket cost of 100 foods. Data on fruit and vegetable consumption were obtained during telephone surveys. Linear regressions examined associations between physical proximity to primary supermarkets, supermarket choice, and fruit and vegetable consumption. Descriptive analyses examined whether supermarket choice outweighed physical proximity among lower-income and vulnerable groups. Results. Only one third of the respondents shopped at their nearest supermarket for their primary food supply. Those who shopped at low-cost supermarkets were more likely to travel beyond their nearest supermarket. Fruit and vegetable consumption was not associated with physical distance but, with supermarket choice, after adjusting for covariates. Conclusions. Mere physical distance may not be the most salient variable to reflect access to supermarkets, particularly among those who shop by car. Studies on food environments need to focus beyond neighborhood geographic boundaries to capture actual food shopping behaviors.
Keywords
Confidence Intervals; Correlation (statistics); Fruit; Geographic Information Systems; Ingestion; Multivariate Analysis; Population Geography; Questionnaires; Regression Analysis; Research Funding; Sales Personnel; Shopping; Travel; Vegetables; Predictive Validity; Cross-sectional Method; Statistical Models; Descriptive Statistics; Null Hypothesis; Washington (state); Local Food Environment; Diet Quality; Socioeconomic Position; Atherosclerosis Risk; Stores; Associations; Obesity; Adults; Availability; Communities
Hoofnagle, Chris Jay; Whittington, Jan. (2014). Free: Accounting for the Costs of the Internet’s Most Popular Price. UCLA Law Review, 61(3), 606 – 670.
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Abstract
Offers of free services abound on the Internet. But the focus on the price rather than on the cost of free services has led consumers into a position of vulnerability. For example, even though internet users typically exchange personal information for the opportunity to use these purportedly free services, one court has found that users of free services are not consumers for purposes of California consumer protection law. This holding reflects the common misconception that the costs of free online transactions are negligible when in fact true costs may be quite significant. To elucidate the true costs of these allegedly free services, we apply a transaction cost economics (TCE) approach. Unlike orthodox economic theory, TCE provides a framework for analyzing exchanges in which the price of the product seems to be zero. Under a TCE analysis, we argue that information-intensive companies misuse the term free to promote products and services that involve numerous nonpecuniary costs. In so doing, firms generate contractual hazards for consumers, ignore consumer preferences for privacy, and mislead consumers by creating the impression that a given transaction will be free. While psychological research and behavioral economics may support an outright ban of free offers because of their biasing effects, TCE suggests reforming governance structures to place the business risks associated with free transactions more firmly in the hands of businesses. We suggest alterations to governance structures such as the Federal Trade Commission's Guide Concerning Use of the Word Free (FTC Guide) to curb the incentives of firms to raise transaction costs for consumers. The FTC Guide provides support for two of the consumer protection measures we propose: first, a requirement that free service providers clearly disclose that such providers seek users' personal information in exchange for those services, and, second, the establishment of a regular price before providers can market a service as free. We further argue that the recognition of users of free services as consumers for purposes of consumer protection law would better align incentives and ensure users access to legal redress against some of the most popular services on the Internet. Lastly, we suggest the adoption of alternative governance structures designed to reduce the cost of transacting by curbing the collection of personal information from consumers of free services and by enhancing the rights of consumers to govern the dispersal of personal information from free online services to third parties.
Keywords
Free Internet Service Providers; Internet Usage Monitoring; Transaction Cost Theory Of The Firm; Internet Privacy -- Law & Legislation; Law; United States. Federal Trade Commission; Vertical Integration; Privacy
Yocom, Ken. (2014). Building Watershed Narratives: An Approach for Broadening the Scope of Success in Urban Stream Restoration. Landscape Research, 39(6), 698 – 714.
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Abstract
The success of urban stream restoration is often measured through biophysical attributes, or the progress towards restoration of a notionally intact section of landscape. What remains understudied is how success can be defined across social, economic, as well as ecological parameters. This research offers a narrative approach for urban restoration research that serves as a chronotope for untangling the biophysical and sociocultural complexities of the contemporary urban environment. The framework of this approach is presented through a case study of a recent stream restoration project in Seattle, Washington. The findings highlight the need for urban stream restoration processes to be grounded within a sociocultural context that is interdependent with biophysical conditions, and recommends measures of project success to include community, educational and participatory goals.
Keywords
River Restoration; Landscape; Management; Catchment; Systems; History; People; Restoration; Success; Watershed; Narrative; Urban