Peers, Justin B.; Lindell, Michael K.; Gregg, Christopher E.; Reeves, Ashleigh K.; Joyner, Andrew T.; Johnston, David M. (2021). Multi-Hazard Perceptions at Long Valley Caldera, California, USA. International Journal Of Disaster Risk Reduction, 52.
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Abstract
Caldera systems such as Long Valley Caldera, California; Taupo, New Zealand; and Campi Flegrei, Italy, experience centuries to millennia without eruption, but have the potential for large eruptions. This raises questions about how local residents' behavioral responses to these low-probability high-consequence events differ from their responses to events, such as wildfires and earthquakes, that have higher probabilities. To examine this issue, a multi-hazard mail survey of 229 households explored perceptions of-and responses to-volcano, earthquake and wildfire hazards in the Long Valley Volcanic Region. Response efficacy was the only significant predictor of emergency preparedness, which suggests that hazard managers can increase household emergency preparedness by emphasizing this attribute of protective actions. In addition to response efficacy, expected personal consequences, hazard intrusiveness, and affective responses were all significantly related to information seeking. This indicates that hazard managers can also increase households' information seeking about local hazards and appropriate protective actions by communicating the certainty and severity of hazard impacts (thus increasing expected personal consequences) and that they communicate this information repeatedly (thus increasing hazard intrusiveness) to produce significant emotional involvement (thus increasing affective response).
Keywords
Households Expected Responses; Risk Information-seeking; Volcanic Risk; Earthquake; Model; Adjustment; Mitigation; Communication; Preparedness; Predictors; Volcano Hazard Perception; Earthquake Hazard Perception; Wildfire Hazard Perception; Emergency Preparedness; Information Seeking
Shang-hsien Hsieh; Ken-yu Lin; Nai-wen Chi; Hsien-tang Lin. (2015). Domain Knowledge-Based Information Retrieval for Engineering Technical Documents. Ontology In The AEC Industry. A Decade Of Research And Development In Architecture, Engineering And Construction, chapter 1.
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Abstract
Technical documents with complicated structures are often produced in architecture/engineering/construction (AEC) projects and research. Information retrieval (IR) techniques provide a possible solution for managing the ever-growing volume and contexts of the knowledge embedded in these technical documents. However, applying a general-purpose search engine to a domain-specific technical document collection often produces unsatisfactory results. To address this problem, we research the development of a novel IR system based on passage retrieval techniques. The system employs domain knowledge to assist passage partitioning and supports an interactive concept-based expanded IR for technical documents in an engineering field. The engineering domain selected in this case is earthquake engineering, although the technologies developed and employed by the system should be generally applicable to many other engineering domains that use technical documents with similar characteristics. We carry out the research in a three-step process. In the first step, since the final output of this research is an IR system, as a prerequisite, we created a reference collection which includes 111 earthquake engineering technical documents from Taiwan's National Center for Research on Earthquake Engineering. With this collection, the effectiveness of the IR system can be further evaluated onceit is developed. In the second step, the research focuses on creating a base domain ontology using an earthquake-engineering handbook to represent the domain knowledge and to support the target IR system with the knowledge. In step three, the research focuses on the semantic querying and retrieval mechanisms and develops the OntoPassage approach to help with the mechanisms. The OntoPassage approach partitions a document into smaller passages, each with around 300 terms, according to the main concepts in the document. This approach is then used to implement the target domain knowledge-based IR system that allows users to interact with the system and perform concept-based query expansions. The results show that the proposed domain knowledge-based IR system can achieve not only an effective IR but also inform search engine users with a clear knowledge representation.
Keywords
Architecture; Construction; Engineering; Knowledge Based Systems; Ontologies (artificial Intelligence); Query Processing; Search Engines; Knowledge Representation; Concept-based Query Expansions; Base Domain Ontology; Earthquake Engineering; General-purpose Search Engine; Aec Projects; Architecture/engineering/construction Projects; Complicated Structures; Technical Documents; Domain Knowledge-based Information Retrieval
Jon, Ihnji. (2019). Resilience and ‘Technicity’: Challenges and Opportunities for New Knowledge Practices in Disaster Planning. Resilience-International Policies Practices and Discourses, 7(2), 107 – 125.
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Abstract
With increasing exposure to environmental catastrophes and natural hazards, the terminology of 'resilience' is becoming ubiquitous in the planning field. As a part of this continuing discussion, this paper examines how the concept of resilience has been used in disaster planning, especially with a focus on the creation and use of knowledge to 'build resilience' in response to potential future natural hazard events. In discussing the practice of creating and using knowledge in disaster planning, I draw insights from the interdisciplinary critical studies of science and technology literature, which has been developing rich discussions on the challenges we face in producing geographical knowledge. I demonstrate in this paper how resilience theory can be linked with the concept of 'technicity' used in the virtual geography literature, and how that association can have meaningful implications for the production and application of knowledge in disaster planning.
Keywords
Community Resilience; Adaptive Capacity; Vulnerability; Hazard; Risk; Sustainability; Participation; Geographies; Uncertainty; Complexity; Resilience; Technicity; Disaster Planning; Virtual Geography; Knowledge Practice
Lindell, Michael K.; Prater, Carla S.; House, Donald H. (2022). Cascadia Subduction Zone Residents’ Tsunami Evacuation Expectations. Geosciences (2076-3263), 12(5).
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Abstract
The U.S. Pacific Northwest coast must be prepared to evacuate immediately after a Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake. This requires coastal residents to understand the tsunami threat, have accurate expectations about warning sources, engage in preimpact evacuation preparedness actions, and plan (and practice) their evacuation logistics, including an appropriate transportation mode, evacuation route, and destination. A survey of 221 residents in three communities identified areas in which many coastal residents have reached adequate levels of preparedness. Moreover, residents who are not adequately prepared are willing to improve their performance in most of the areas in which they fall short. However, many respondents expect to engage in time-consuming evacuation preparations before evacuating. Additionally, their estimates of evacuation travel time might be inaccurate because only 28-52% had practiced their evacuation routes. These results indicate that more coastal residents should prepare grab-and-go kits to speed their departure, as well as practice evacuation preparation and evacuation travel to test the accuracy of these evacuation time estimates. Overall, these results, together with recommendations for overcoming them, can guide CSZ emergency managers in methods of improving hazard awareness and education programs. In addition, these data can guide transportation engineers' evacuation analyses and evacuation plans.
Keywords
Subduction Zones; Tsunamis; Tsunami Warning Systems; Civilian Evacuation; Earthquake Zones; Transportation Engineering; Expectation (psychology); Residents; Cascadia Subduction Zone; Evacuation Preparedness; Evacuation Time Estimates; Tsunami; Natural Warning Signs; Coastal Communities; American-samoa; New-zealand; Earthquake; Behavior; Preparedness; Awareness; Japan; Washington; Earthquakes; Transportation; Evacuations & Rescues; Travel Time; Subduction; Surveying; Evacuation; Travel; Coasts; Emergency Warning Programs; Seismic Activity; Emergency Preparedness; Perceptions; Traveltime; Coastal Zone; Peers; Estimates; Logistics; Evacuation Routing; Subduction (geology); Households; United States--us; Pacific Northwest; Cascadia
Dunn, Peter T.; Ahn, Alicia Y. E.; Bostrom, Ann; Vidale, John E. (2016). Perceptions of Earthquake Early Warnings on the US West Coast. International Journal Of Disaster Risk Reduction, 20, 112 – 122.
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Abstract
Earthquake early warning systems can provide seconds to minutes of lead time by alerting people that an earthquake has started and shaking is coming, enabling them to take protective action. To examine how earthquake early warnings might be received on the U.S. West coast, we conducted surveys of residents in the west coast states of Washington, Oregon and California (N=2595) through Google paywall intercept surveys administered in three rounds between September 2014 and September 2015. A majority of residents in all states (61% WA, 54% OR, 70% CA) have personally experienced an earthquake. Those who have experienced an earthquake perceive higher risk and greater potential for effectively reducing that risk with earthquake early warning. Although respondents feel that federal and local government should pay for earthquake early warning, almost two-thirds report being willing to pay something for an Earthquake Early Alert app on [their] smartphone or personal computer. Median willingness to pay per month is $1. Perceived risk, perceived effectiveness of earthquake early warning, and anticipated or experienced emotional responses to earthquakes influence judgments of and preferences for earthquake early warning, although personal experience of earthquakes conditions these influences. Further, highly visible mass media communications such as the New Yorker article The Really Big One and the movie San Andreas increase earthquake risk perceptions. Overall, interest in and support for earthquake early warning on the U.S. West Coast appears strong.
Keywords
Fear Appeals; Hazard; Model; Risk; Preparedness; Information; Adjustment; Context; Earthquake Early Warning; Risk Perception; Risk Communication; Hazard Preparation; Willingness To Pay
Jon, Ihnji; Huang, Shih-Kai; Lindell, Michael K. (2019). Perceptions and Expected Immediate Reactions to Severe Storm Displays. Risk Analysis, 39(1), 274 – 290.
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Abstract
The National Weather Service has adopted warning polygons that more specifically indicate the risk area than its previous county-wide warnings. However, these polygons are not defined in terms of numerical strike probabilities (p(s)). To better understand people's interpretations of warning polygons, 167 participants were shown 23 hypothetical scenarios in one of three information conditions-polygon-only (Condition A), polygon + tornadic storm cell (Condition B), and polygon + tornadic storm cell + flanking nontornadic storm cells (Condition C). Participants judged each polygon's p(s) and reported the likelihood of taking nine different response actions. The polygon-only condition replicated the results of previous studies; p(s) was highest at the polygon's centroid and declined in all directions from there. The two conditions displaying storm cells differed from the polygon-only condition only in having p(s) just as high at the polygon's edge nearest the storm cell as at its centroid. Overall, p(s) values were positively correlated with expectations of continuing normal activities, seeking information from social sources, seeking shelter, and evacuating by car. These results indicate that participants make more appropriate p(s) judgments when polygons are presented in their natural context of radar displays than when they are presented in isolation. However, the fact that p(s) judgments had moderately positive correlations with both sheltering (a generally appropriate response) and evacuation (a generally inappropriate response) suggests that experiment participants experience the same ambivalence about these two protective actions as people threatened by actual tornadoes.
Keywords
Decision-making; Tornado; Risk; Communication; Numeracy; Residents; Shelter; Events; Protective Actions; Risk Perceptions; Tornado Warning Polygons; Judgments; Tornadoes; Meteorological Services; Storms; Lymphocytes B; Polygons; Emergency Warning Programs; Evacuation; Displays; Inappropriateness; Weather; Warnings; Conditions; Ambivalence
Zuidema, Christopher; Austin, Elena; Cohen, Martin A.; Kasner, Edward; Liu, Lilian; Isaksen, Tania Busch; Lin, Ken-Yu; Spector, June; Seto, Edmund. (2022). Potential Impacts Of Washington State’s Wildfire Worker Protection Rule On Construction Workers. Annals Of Work Exposures & Health, 66(4), 419 – 432.
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Abstract
Driven by climate change, wildfires are increasing in frequency, duration, and intensity across the Western United States. Outdoor workers are being exposed to increasing wildfire-related particulate matter and smoke. Recognizing this emerging risk, Washington adopted an emergency rule and is presently engaged in creating a permanent rule to protect outdoor workers from wildfire smoke exposure. While there are growing bodies of literature on the exposure to and health effects of wildfire smoke in the general public and wildland firefighters, there is a gap in knowledge about wildfire smoke exposure among outdoor workers generally and construction workers specifically-a large category of outdoor workers in Washington totaling 200,000 people. Several data sources were linked in this study-including state-collected employment data and national ambient air quality data-to gain insight into the risk of PM2.5 exposure among construction workers and evaluate the impacts of different air quality thresholds that would have triggered a new Washington emergency wildfire smoke rule aimed at protecting workers from high PM2.5 exposure. Results indicate the number of poor air quality days has increased in August and September in recent years. Over the last decade, these months with the greatest potential for particulate matter exposure coincided with an annual peak in construction employment that was typically 9.4-42.7% larger across Washington counties (one county was 75.8%). Lastly, the 'encouraged' threshold of the Washington emergency rule (20.5 mu g m(-3)) would have resulted in 5.5 times more days subject to the wildfire rule on average across all Washington counties compared to its 'required' threshold (55.5 mu g m(-3)), and in 2020, the rule could have created demand for 1.35 million N-95 filtering facepiece respirators among construction workers. These results have important implications for both employers and policy makers as rules are developed. The potential policy implications of wildfire smoke exposure, exposure control strategies, and data gaps that would improve understanding of construction worker exposure to wildfire smoke are also discussed.
Keywords
Particulate Matter; Industrial Safety; Occupational Exposure; Rules; Smoke; Construction Industry; Employment; Occupational Hazards; Descriptive Statistics; Industrial Hygiene; Wildfires; N95 Respirators; Washington (state); Forest Fires; Pm 2.5; Respirator; Wildfire Smoke Protection Rule; Wildland Fire; Pm2 5; Health Impacts; Climate-change; Forest-fire; Exposure; Firefighters; Infiltration
El-Anwar, Omar; Ye, Jin; Orabi, Wallied. (2016). Efficient Optimization of Post-Disaster Reconstruction of Transportation Networks. Journal Of Computing In Civil Engineering, 30(3).
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Abstract
Catastrophes, such as hurricanes, earthquakes, and tsunamis often cause large-scale damage to transportation systems. In the aftermath of these disasters, there is a present challenge to quickly analyze various reconstruction plans and assess their impacts on restoring transportation services. This paper presents a new methodology for optimizing post-disaster reconstruction plans for transportation networks with superior computational efficiency employing mixed-integer linear programming (MILP). The model is capable of optimizing transportation recovery projects prioritization and contractors assignment in order to simultaneously: (1)accelerate networks recovery; and (2)minimize public expenditures. The full methodology is presented in two companion publications, where the focus of this paper is to propose new methods for (1)decomposing traffic analysis; (2)assessing the traffic and cost performance of reconstruction plans; (3)reducing the massive solution search space; and (4)phasing the use of mixed-integer linear programming to optimize the problem. An illustrative example is presented throughout the paper to demonstrate the implementation phases. (C) 2015 American Society of Civil Engineers.
Keywords
Cost Reduction; Disasters; Emergency Management; Integer Programming; Linear Programming; Project Management; Public Finance; Search Problems; Town And Country Planning; Transportation; Solution Search Space Reduction; Cost Performance Assessment; Traffic Performance Assessment; Traffic Analysis; Public Expenditure Minimization; Network Recovery Acceleration; Contractor Assignment; Transportation Recovery Project Prioritization; Milp; Mixed-integer Linear Programming; Post-disaster Reconstruction Plan Optimization; Transportation Service Restoration; Reconstruction Plans; Transportation System Large-scale Damage; Tsunami; Earthquake; Hurricane; Catastrophe; Transportation Network; Post-disaster Reconstruction Optimization; Optimizing Resource Utilization; Natural Disasters; Housing Projects; Construction; Performance; Robustness; Recovery; Plans; Transportation Network Reconstruction; Post-disaster Recovery; Multi-objective Optimization; Computational Cost; Contractors Assignment; Search Space
Lindell, Michael K.; Arlikatti, Sudha; Huang, Shih-kai. (2019). Immediate Behavioral Response to the June 17, 2013 Flash Floods in Uttarakhand, North India. International Journal Of Disaster Risk Reduction, 34, 129 – 146.
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Abstract
The 2013 Uttarakhand flash flood was such a surprise for those at risk that the predominant source of information for their risk was environmental cues and, secondarily, peer warnings rather than official warnings. Of those who received warnings, few received information other than the identity of the flood threat. A survey of 316 survivors found that most people's first response was to immediately evacuate but some stayed to receive additional information, confirm their warnings, or engage in evacuation preparations. Unfortunately, engaging in these milling behaviors necessarily delayed their final evacuations. Mediation analysis revealed that psychological reactions mediated the relationship between information sources and behavioral responses. Further analyses revealed that immediate evacuation and evacuation delay were both predicted best by information search and positive affect, but correlation analyses indicated that a number of other models were also plausible. Final evacuation was best predicted by immediate evacuation and, to a significantly lesser extent, household together. Overall, results suggest that the Protective Action Decision Model (PADM) should be considered a useful framework for examining household responses to flash floods in developing countries like India. It supports the conclusion that a household's first warning source is a function of two distinct detection and dissemination systems within a community-an official system and an informal system. However, it fails to capture what pre-impact emergency preparedness entails for rapid onset events in a developing country context. Further research is needed to determine the relative importance of situational and cultural characteristics in producing these observed differences.
Keywords
Risk Perception; Mental Models; Warnings; Evacuation; Disaster; Tsunami; Communication; Earthquake; Beliefs; Hazard; Flash Flood; Warning; Psychological Reactions; India
Chen, Chen; Wang, Haizhong; Lindell, Michael K.; Jung, Meen Chel; Siam, M. R. K. (2022). Tsunami Preparedness And Resilience: Evacuation Logistics And Time Estimations. Transportation Research Part D-transport And Environment, 109.
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Abstract
Extensive research has studied the near-field tsunami threat in the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ), but little research has examined the ability to evacuate the inundation zone before the first tsunami wave arrives. To address this gap, this study provides empirical evidence about people's expectations about hazard onset and evacuation logistics when a tsunami threatens. We surveyed households in five CSZ communities to assess residents' expected first wave arrival time, as well as their expectations about evacuation destinations, route choices, preparation times, travel times, and clearance times. Heatmaps are used to summarize residents' evacuation destinations and route choices, and probabilistic functions are used to model evacuation distances and time estimates. The results suggest that respondents have similar patterns of time estimates, but a few plan to evacuate within the inundation zone, and some plan to evacuate on routes that were congested in a previous event and end their evacuations at destinations within the inundation zone.
Keywords
Disaster; Tsunami Evacuation; Time Estimate; Cascadia Subduction Zone; Behavior; Decision-making; American-samoa; Earthquake; Oregon; Washington; Wellington; Responses; Hazard; Model